Stocks/ORIC

ORIC

ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$8.45
$875M market cap
Claude Rating
5/10HOLD
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-111.4M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$13.50
Upside
+59.8%

ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops therapies for treatment of cancers in the United States. Its clinical stage product candidates include ORIC-533, an orally bioavailable small molecule inhibitor of CD73 being developed for resistance to chemotherapy- and immunotherapy-based treatment regimens; ORIC-944, an allosteric inhibitor of the polycomb repressive complex 2 for prostate cancer; and ORIC-114, a brain penetrant orally bioavailable

2-Year Price History

$8.32-7.5%
$6.0$8.0$10$12volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0281.9----------
Est2027-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0281.9----------
Est2027-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0281.9----------
Est2027-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0281.9----------
Est2026-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0281.9----------
Est2026-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0281.9----------
Est2026-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0281.9----------
Est2026-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0281.9----------
Act2026-Q10.0-39.4-39.6-35.8-32.4-32.4-0.0281.90.0105.5-71.4%----
Act2025-Q40.0-30.2-34.6-30.5-22.5-22.9-0.4281.511.687.8-67.3%----
Act2025-Q30.0-32.3-36.7-32.6-25.1-25.2-0.0287.13.399.0-65.8%----
Act2025-Q20.0-38.8-39.1-36.4-30.8-30.9-0.1282.53.378.1-110.0%----
Act2025-Q10.0-32.4-32.7-30.0-32.8-33.2-0.4203.73.271.0-341.9%----
Act2024-Q40.0-36.0-39.6-36.3-28.1-28.3-0.2256.03.270.7-253.1%----
Act2024-Q30.0-38.1-38.3-34.6-28.8-29.2-0.4272.43.170.5-161.7%----
Act2024-Q20.0-35.7-36.0-32.0-25.6-26.0-0.3286.42.870.4-115.5%----
Act2024-Q10.0-28.7-29.0-25.0-30.4-30.6-0.2316.82.867.4-75.7%----
Act2023-Q40.0-28.1-31.4-28.3-24.3-24.3-0.1208.210.257.5-221.1%-14.1x--
Act2023-Q30.0-28.4-28.7-25.5-19.6-19.7-0.1227.32.757.4-155.5%----
Act2023-Q20.0-24.7-25.0-22.9-21.1-21.6-0.4264.22.745.7-103.5%----
Act2023-Q10.0-25.4-25.7-24.0-20.6-20.9-0.3189.62.745.1-331.3%----
Act2022-Q40.0-21.9-22.1-20.9-15.3-15.6-0.3206.312.140.1-145.7%----
Act2022-Q30.0-20.5-25.7-24.8-19.3-19.7-0.4193.72.639.6-231.7%----
Act2022-Q20.0-20.5-20.7-20.3-17.8-18.4-0.7227.12.639.5-122.9%----
Act2022-Q10.0-23.0-23.3-23.2-22.7-23.4-0.7234.62.039.4-110.4%----

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude5/10HOLDFV: $13.50

ORIC is a high-risk, high-reward clinical-stage biotech trading near analyst consensus discount with two potentially differentiated assets: rinzimetostat (PRC2 inhibitor for mCRPC) showing encouraging 55% PSA50 response rates, and enozertinib showing best-in-class CNS penetration in NSCLC. The ~$280M cash position provides runway into 2H 2028, sufficient to reach key Phase 3 data readouts. However, the Ipsen/Tazverik withdrawal creates genuine class-wide overhang on the EZH2/PRC2 mechanism, 45.8% short interest reflects deep skepticism, and the 24%+ annual dilution rate structurally destroys per-share value. With zero revenue, the entire $1.26B market cap is option value on clinical success. The risk/reward is balanced at current levels - the clinical data is genuinely encouraging, but the regulatory/safety overhang and binary nature of the outcomes make this a neutral-to-speculative position rather than a high-conviction call.

Catalyst Phase 3 rinzimetostat data readout (likely 2027-2028) and continued enozertinib dose-escalation data. Resolution of EZH2 class safety concerns through longer-term rinzimetostat safety data could re-rate the stock significantly. A partnership deal for either asset would validate the pipeline.
Risk EZH2/PRC2 class-wide safety concerns following Ipsen's Tazverik withdrawal could derail rinzimetostat's regulatory path regardless of efficacy, which would eliminate the majority of the company's pipeline value and likely result in 60-80% downside.
Trend
STABLE
Mgmt
5/10
Quarter
7/10
Exp. Move
-3.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$8.45
Market Cap$875M
Enterprise Value$593M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-12.7%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution48.5%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-135.2M
Free Cash Flow$-111.4M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-78.6%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage--

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$2.67
-68.4% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$-282M
= Fair Equity$282M
Revenue Growth0.0% → 8.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → 25.0%
Discount Rate17.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float45.2%
Short Shares22.0M
Days to Cover16.6
Change (vs Prior)+6.1%
Short % Float History
45.20%+22.20pp
20.0%30.0%40.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)186%
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread57.7%
Call $OI (near money)$2.2M
Put $OI (near money)$33K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$8.0
Major Expirations5
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$5.00$1.50/$6.000--/$4.900
$6.00$1.30/$5.500--/$0.6551
$7.00$0.10/$4.900--/$4.900
$8.00$0.10/$4.900--/$3.603
$9.00--/$4.900$0.10/$4.902
$10.00--/$4.905$0.20/$4.904
$11.00--/$4.901$1.00/$5.500
$12.00--/$4.901$1.70/$6.507
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin0.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score9/10
Bankruptcy Odds12%
Est. Borrow Rate85.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x
LT Growth15.0%
LT FCF Margin25.0%

Employees

Headcount122
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$-2,623
2022: 86 → 2023: 100 → 2024: 115 → 2025: 200,000 (1225% CAGR)

Cash Runway

30.4months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 24.6% of float, sold 20.4%. 4 filers moved >1% of shares (3 buying, 1 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+4.2% of float (net)
Bought 24.6% · Sold 20.4%
181 filers reported (last quarter: 166)

Ownership composition

Active
144.0%(+102.6% YoY)
163 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
19.7%(+11.2% YoY)
5 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.2%(+0.0% YoY)
7 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
5.9%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Nextech Invest, Ltd.$90.8M$6.78+$0+$23.8M+28.2%$1.42B
EcoR1 Capital, LLC$85.2M$12.00+$0+$41.9M-4.9%$2.34B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$75.8M$10.19+$1.4M+$7.0M-0.2%$5.69T
VIKING GLOBAL INVESTORS LP$73.8M$10.72−$9.5M−$9.5M+1.1%$35.75B
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/$68.3M$11.30+$26.5M+$51.4M-0.2%$864.93B
SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP$58.5M$10.15+$0+$58.5M-7.7%$915M
PFIZER INC$57.7M$8.07−$7.6M−$7.2M+3.0%$239M
ALKEON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$57.1M$7.34+$0+$6.3M+1.1%$22.08B
VR Adviser, LLC$54.7M$10.37−$17.2M+$14.4M-2.2%$2.68B
NEA Management Company, LLC$52.2M$10.73+$0+$24.4M-3.4%$1.76B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$46.9M$9.42−$7.0M+$19.1M-0.2%$2.89T
Column Group LLC$44.9M$5.34+$0+$0-8.5%$101M
Siren, L.L.C.$38.0M$11.86+$25.2M+$25.2M+6.2%$3.61B
ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC$34.1M$11.10−$12.0M+$25.3M-8.1%$4.38B
AIHC Capital Management Ltd$31.2M$12.67+$31.2M+$31.2M+23.4%$120M
FMR LLC$30.8M$9.23−$568K−$587K+0.3%$1.89T
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$30.7M$8.02−$152K+$24.2M-0.4%$138.22B
First Turn Management, LLC$25.6M$10.29+$88K−$129K+0.2%$854M
Vivo Capital, LLC$23.4M$7.52−$3.4M−$2.9M-6.9%$1.20B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$23.3M$9.27+$1.1M+$6.8M+2.3%$1.61T
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
+1.50%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+1.35%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+3.95%
83 buyers · $0.30B in
Sellers (this Q)
-1.78%
69 sellers · $-0.09B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-6.1%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-5.4%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-14.9%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+0.3%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-10.7%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-1.4%
Holder mid (any stock)
-4.6%
Holder rally (any stock)
-5.4%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

011.5M22.9M34.4M45.9M$3.20$5.84$8.48$11$142021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
FMR LLC2.4MColumn Group LLC3.5MNextech Invest, Ltd.7.2MEcoR1 Capital, LLC6.7MVR Adviser, LLC4.3MVIKING GLOBAL INVESTORS LP5.8MNextech Invest Ltd.PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/5.4MPFIZER INC4.8MSR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP4.5M

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Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (3 analysts)$18.3311690.0%
Last Year (7 analysts)$20.4314180.0%
Current Price$8.45

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$13.2M
Incentive & Other$28.5M
Total Compensation$41.7M
% of Revenue0.0%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$263K
2 txns · 1 insider · 28,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$4.92M
18 txns · 4 insiders · 434,514 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-02-24SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer52,000$13.51$703K$921K
2026-01-16SELLHeyman Richard A.director6,700$12.00$80K$502K
2025-12-16SELLChacko Jacobdirector, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO33,374$9.06$302K$5.27M
2025-12-16SELLMultani Pratik Sofficer: Chief Medical Officer10,720$9.06$97K$617K
2025-12-16SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer10,720$9.06$97K$617K
2025-10-06SELLChacko Jacobdirector, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO37,461$12.32$462K$6.55M
2025-10-06SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer11,000$14.52$160K$702K
2025-10-01SELLChacko Jacobdirector, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO53,001$12.05$639K$6.86M
2025-09-30SELLChacko Jacobdirector, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO34,538$12.01$415K$7.47M
2025-09-22SELLChacko Jacobdirector, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO125,000$10.80$1.35M$7.09M
2025-07-01SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer20,000$10.05$201K$486K
2025-06-24SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer32,466$10.50$341K$718K
2025-06-23SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer1,034$10.00$10K$1.01M
2025-06-23BUYYou Angiedirector1,403$9.43$13K$264K
2025-06-20BUYYou Angiedirector26,597$9.39$250K$250K
2025-06-12SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer300$10.00$3K$1.02M
2025-06-11SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer2,976$10.01$30K$1.02M
2025-06-10SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer324$10.00$3K$1.05M
2025-06-09SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer300$10.00$3K$1.04M
2025-06-06SELLPiscitelli Dominicofficer: Chief Financial Officer2,600$10.01$26K$1.04M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

18.7%retail-7.4pp
27.9%dark+3.1pp
week of 2026-04-13
20%40%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

ORIC: Dilution Engine Funding Clinical Burn

Overall Risk
5/10
Fraud
2/10
Dilution
8/10
Insolvency
3/10
Earnings Overstated
1/10
Hidden Liabilities
4/10
Legal
2/10
Audit Warnings
2/10
Hidden Upside
6/10
Contextually Acceptable
8/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In February and March 2026, ORIC reported robust Phase 1b data for its two lead assets: rinzimetostat (ORIC-944) for prostate cancer and enozertinib (ORIC-114) for lung cancer. Rinzimetostat achieved a 55% PSA50 response and a notable 59% ctDNA clearance rate. Enozertinib demonstrated 'best-in-class' potential with a 100% intracranial objective response rate (ORR) in patients with brain metastases. Furthermore, ORIC confirmed a cash position of approximately $413 million, extending its runway into 2H 2028, and announced the planned initiation of its first Phase 3 trial for rinzimetostat in 1H 2026 (Source: GlobeNewswire, Seeking Alpha).

🐻 Bear Case

The prevailing bear thesis is driven by the recent withdrawal of Ipsen's Tazverik from the market due to secondary malignancies, which has triggered a sector-wide sell-off of EZH2/PRC2 inhibitors. Bears argue that ORIC faces severe regulatory headwinds and the possibility of similar class-wide safety issues. Additionally, as a clinical-stage company with no revenue, ORIC remains a 'binary' bet where any Phase 3 setback could result in a total loss of value, compounded by high R&D spend and a pivot away from early-stage discovery (Source: Investing.com, Finviz).

🚩 Red Flags

The most significant red flag is the regulatory scrutiny on the EZH2 inhibitor class following the Ipsen setback. There is also concern regarding the company's decision to 'substantially reduce' investment in its discovery research to preserve cash for late-stage trials, which may limit the long-term pipeline. Furthermore, while the current cash runway is long, any delays in Phase 3 enrollment could lead to further dilutive capital raises before commercialization (Source: Public.com, OricPharma.com).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

ORIC faces intense competition from large-cap players, specifically Pfizer, whose MEVPRO-1 Phase 3 study in the PRC2/EZH1 pathway is a direct competitor to rinzimetostat. In the NSCLC space, enozertinib must compete against established and emerging EGFR/HER2 inhibitors, although ORIC is attempting to differentiate via superior CNS penetration and a strategic collaboration with Johnson & Johnson (Source: MarketBeat).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among institutional analysts remains surprisingly resilient. JPMorgan reiterated an 'Overweight' rating and a $21 target in March 2026, citing 'safety differentiation' supported by Key Opinion Leader (KOL) feedback. Technical indicators also suggest a contrarian opportunity: the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently hit 26.30, signaling 'oversold' territory, while the consensus analyst price target of ~$21.23 represents a potential 50%+ upside from current depressed levels (Source: DirectorsTalk Interviews, Investing.com).