Savara Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on rare respiratory diseases. Its lead product candidate is molgramostim, an inhaled granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor, which is in Phase III development stage for the treatment of autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis. The company is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 38.0 | -20.9 | -- | -27.4 | -- | -24.7 | -1.3 | 7.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 30.0 | -25.5 | -- | -31.5 | -- | -28.5 | -1.2 | 32.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 22.0 | -30.8 | -- | -36.3 | -- | -34.1 | -1.1 | 60.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 14.0 | -32.9 | -- | -38.5 | -- | -36.4 | -1.0 | 94.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 8.0 | -38.0 | -- | -42.0 | -- | -40.0 | -1.0 | 131.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 1.5 | -30.0 | -- | -33.0 | -- | -31.5 | -0.8 | 171.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 202.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 202.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | -38.9 | -39.0 | -37.3 | -33.1 | -33.1 | -0.1 | 202.8 | 30.1 | 253.3 | -141.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -33.4 | -33.4 | -32.2 | -25.1 | -25.1 | -0.0 | 235.7 | 29.9 | 222.4 | -96.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 0.0 | -29.5 | -30.3 | -29.6 | -22.5 | -22.5 | -0.0 | 124.4 | 29.8 | 216.5 | -403.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.0 | -31.4 | -31.4 | -30.4 | -26.3 | -26.3 | -0.0 | 146.4 | 29.7 | 216.4 | -223.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 0.0 | -27.6 | -28.4 | -26.6 | -27.2 | -27.2 | -0.0 | 172.5 | 29.6 | 216.2 | -134.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 0.0 | -29.0 | -31.2 | -29.0 | -23.3 | -23.3 | -0.0 | 196.3 | 26.7 | 198.2 | -117.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 0.0 | -26.3 | -26.4 | -24.3 | -22.7 | -22.7 | -0.0 | 219.4 | 26.7 | 211.9 | -77.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.0 | -23.2 | -23.2 | -22.2 | -22.5 | -22.5 | -0.0 | 121.5 | 26.6 | 182.6 | -241.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.0 | -21.7 | -22.5 | -20.4 | -20.6 | -20.7 | -0.0 | 143.0 | 26.6 | 182.6 | -152.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 0.0 | -17.6 | -17.6 | -16.1 | -15.6 | -15.6 | -0.0 | 162.3 | 26.5 | 179.8 | -90.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 0.0 | -18.0 | -18.0 | -16.6 | -13.2 | -13.2 | -0.0 | 168.4 | 26.7 | 164.3 | -84.4% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.0 | -12.2 | -12.2 | -11.4 | -10.3 | -10.5 | -0.2 | 105.3 | 26.3 | 152.8 | -185.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 0.0 | -11.3 | -12.1 | -10.6 | -12.0 | -12.0 | -0.0 | 114.8 | 26.2 | 152.8 | -158.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 0.0 | -10.9 | -10.9 | -10.3 | -8.7 | -8.7 | -0.0 | 125.9 | 26.1 | 152.8 | -108.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 0.0 | -10.5 | -10.5 | -10.4 | -8.2 | -8.2 | -0.0 | 134.1 | 26.1 | 152.8 | -85.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.0 | -8.9 | -9.4 | -9.2 | -9.3 | -9.3 | -0.0 | 142.4 | 26.0 | 152.8 | -62.3% | -31.4x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 0.0 | -7.7 | -8.1 | -8.3 | -8.4 | -8.4 | -0.0 | 152.1 | 26.0 | 152.8 | -45.7% | -13.5x | -- |
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Savara is a maximum-uncertainty binary biotech bet on a single drug (MOLBREEVI) for a very small orphan indication (~3,600 US patients). The PDUFA date of August 22, 2026 is the defining event. At $1.2B market cap with zero revenue, the stock prices in a high probability of approval AND successful commercialization. However, the company has already suffered an RTF letter (demonstrating CMC/execution risk), faces a securities class action, has committed to an expensive 2.5x royalty deal with RTW, and has 33% potential dilution overhang. Even in an approval scenario, the small addressable market, reimbursement hurdles, and chronic nebulized delivery logistics make peak sales likely $300-500M at best, which after royalties and operating costs may not justify the current valuation. The risk/reward skew at $5.88 is unfavorable: approval is partially priced in, while rejection would likely send shares below $1.50. Short interest at 20% reflects informed skepticism.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.00 | $0.90/$5.50 | 0 | --/$0.95 | 0 |
| $3.00 | $0.20/$4.90 | 0 | --/$4.90 | 0 |
| $4.00 | --/$4.90 | 0 | --/$4.90 | 0 |
| $5.00 | --/$4.90 | 2 | --/$4.90 | 0 |
| $6.00 | --/$4.90 | 3 | --/$4.90 | 0 |
| $7.00 | --/$1.50 | 0 | $0.30/$4.90 | 0 |
| $8.00 | --/$4.90 | 0 | $0.80/$5.50 | 0 |
| $9.00 | --/$4.90 | 0 | $1.60/$6.50 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 17.7% of float, sold 2.9%. 2 filers moved >1% of shares (2 buying, 0 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEA Management Company, LLC | $134M | $3.78 | +$0 | +$0 | -3.8% | $1.76B |
| Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC | $96.1M | $3.33 | +$0 | +$0 | -0.5% | $1.11B |
| VR Adviser, LLC | $75.0M | $2.56 | +$0 | +$57.2M | -2.6% | $2.68B |
| DEERFIELD MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. (SERIES C) | $74.1M | $4.86 | +$0 | +$30.6M | -0.8% | $7.18B |
| TCG Crossover Management, LLC | $67.5M | $3.83 | +$0 | +$0 | +4.7% | $3.50B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $61.6M | $4.57 | +$1.1M | +$7.3M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| Frazier Life Sciences Management, L.P. | $53.1M | $3.59 | −$772K | −$9.5M | +2.3% | $3.89B |
| Polar Capital Holdings Plc | $52.1M | $5.72 | +$6.7M | +$52.1M | +1.5% | $22.76B |
| Nantahala Capital Management, LLC | $40.1M | $3.67 | +$0 | −$4.0M | -2.4% | $1.60B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $36.6M | $4.83 | +$13.0M | +$23.2M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| RTW INVESTMENTS, LP | $32.5M | $6.03 | +$0 | +$32.5M | -2.2% | $9.26B |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | $24.6M | $5.88 | −$249K | +$24.6M | +0.7% | $92.71B |
| Woodline Partners LP | $23.2M | $5.28 | +$3K | +$21.8M | -0.1% | $26.42B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $19.6M | $4.19 | +$965K | +$4.2M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| Spruce Street Capital LP | $18.5M | $5.87 | +$5.3M | +$18.5M | +57.9% | $416M |
| EMERALD ADVISERS, LLC | $18.4M | $2.91 | −$678K | +$1.5M | -0.1% | $3.16B |
| Rosalind Advisors, Inc. | $17.5M | $3.24 | −$1.1M | +$3.0M | +1.1% | $244M |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | $14.8M | $4.39 | +$195K | −$7.9M | +0.1% | $533.98B |
| Vestal Point Capital, LP | $14.2M | $3.94 | +$5.4M | −$45.9M | -0.0% | $3.58B |
| Affinity Asset Advisors, LLC | $13.7M | $4.46 | −$1.6M | +$13.7M | +1.4% | $1.60B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 40.5%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
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Analyst Coverage
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | SELL | RAMSAY DAVID A | director | 20,000 | $6.06 | $121K | $15.36M |
| 2025-06-20 | BUY | Hawkins Richard J | director | 48,225 | $2.04 | $99K | $236K |
| 2025-05-29 | BUY | McCracken Joseph S | director | 10,000 | $2.08 | $21K | $543K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Savara Inc.: Clinical Burn-Rate Masked by Stock-Based Compensation and Massive Dilution Overhang
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
As of April 15, 2026, Savara is under heavy scrutiny following its Q4 2025 earnings report, which showed a loss of $0.13 per share, missing the $0.12 consensus (March 2026). While the FDA accepted its resubmitted BLA for MOLBREEVI with a PDUFA date of August 22, 2026, H.C. Wainwright recently slashed its earnings forecasts for 2026–2028, citing valuation concerns (Investing.com, March 2026). Additionally, the company recently announced an amendment to its debt facility with Hercules Capital, which only unlocks further funding if FDA approval is actually achieved, highlighting the high-stakes binary nature of the upcoming regulatory decision.
The bear case centers on a history of regulatory incompetence and manufacturing failures. The FDA's 2025 'Refuse to File' (RTF) letter for MOLBREEVI was a major blow, specifically citing incomplete Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls (CMC) data. Skeptics argue that while the BLA was resubmitted in December 2025, the underlying manufacturing vulnerabilities may still lead to a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or significant commercial delays. Furthermore, the addressable market for aPAP is extremely small (~3,600 US patients), making it difficult to justify a $1.5B+ valuation without flawless execution, which the company has yet to demonstrate.
The primary red flag is the ongoing federal securities class action lawsuit (Ho v. Savara Inc., et al.), which alleges leadership misled investors about the readiness of their 2025 BLA. Recent institutional sentiment has been dampened by a 'minor risk' warning for shareholder dilution, which was flagged repeatedly in March and April 2026 following a $149M follow-on offering in late 2025 (Simply Wall St). The stock also hit a 52-week low of $1.91 in 2025, indicating extreme volatility and fragile investor confidence.
Savara faces indirect but potent competition from larger, better-capitalized biotechs in the respiratory and orphan drug space, such as Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) and Zealand Pharma, which analysts often favor for their more diversified pipelines (MarketBeat). Within the specialized aPAP space, any shift toward alternative therapies or gene-based approaches could render Savara’s nebulized GM-CSF therapy obsolete before it even reaches peak sales.
While patient advocacy groups are supportive, there is significant physician concern regarding the high cost of therapy and the logistical burden of chronic nebulized treatment (Public.com). Sentiment from the medical community suggests that insurance coverage hurdles will be substantial for such a rare orphan disease, potentially limiting market penetration even if the drug receives FDA approval in Q3 2026.