Stocks/DYN

DYN

Dyne Therapeutics, Inc.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$19.33
$3.2B market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-462.2M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$12.50
Upside
-35.3%

Dyne Therapeutics, Inc., a muscle disease company, operates as a biotechnology company that focuses on advancing therapeutics for genetically driven muscle diseases in the United States. It develops various programs for myotonic dystrophy type 1, duchenne muscular dystrophy, and facioscapulohumeral dystrophy, as well as rare skeletal muscle, and cardiac and metabolic muscle diseases using its FORCE platform that delivers disease-modifying therapeutics. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is

2-Year Price History

$17.37-45.5%
$10$20$30$40volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0972.2----------
Est2027-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0972.2----------
Est2027-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0972.2----------
Est2027-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0972.2----------
Est2026-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0972.2----------
Est2026-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0972.2----------
Est2026-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0972.2----------
Est2026-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0972.2----------
Act2026-Q10.0-125.3-125.3-120.9-144.9-145.1-0.2972.219.3165.0-69.3%-29.8x--
Act2025-Q40.0-101.2-116.1-112.0-111.8-112.3-0.51,11120.3128.4-55.0%-31.7x--
Act2025-Q30.0-104.6-113.9-108.0-90.8-110.0-19.2791.9120.5141.8-67.7%-36.0x--
Act2025-Q20.0-110.3-115.8-110.9-94.7-94.8-0.1683.9121.1113.9-82.8%-1173.0x--
Act2025-Q10.0-121.9-122.4-115.4-105.9-106.9-1.0677.523.3109.9-86.2%----
Act2024-Q40.0-96.7-97.1-89.5-84.3-85.4-1.1642.324.0102.0-72.3%----
Act2024-Q30.0-105.2-105.7-97.1-74.6-74.9-0.3723.724.9100.9-67.9%----
Act2024-Q20.0-64.7-72.0-65.1-54.9-55.7-0.9778.825.792.5-40.9%----
Act2024-Q10.0-68.8-69.2-65.7-78.5-78.7-0.2453.626.681.0-66.9%----
Act2023-Q40.0-67.3-67.7-66.6-35.0-35.1-0.1123.127.461.4-987.6%----
Act2023-Q30.0-61.8-62.3-60.2-50.6-50.8-0.2157.828.261.1-882.5%----
Act2023-Q20.0-66.3-66.7-64.9-55.6-55.9-0.3207.729.059.8-919.4%----
Act2023-Q10.0-45.1-45.5-44.2-46.9-47.1-0.2238.229.856.3-439.9%----
Act2022-Q40.0-39.7-40.2-38.8-29.2-29.7-0.5256.030.552.5-303.9%----
Act2022-Q30.0-41.9-42.3-41.4-42.8-43.7-0.9248.131.251.8-330.1%----
Act2022-Q20.0-52.3-52.8-52.3-30.9-31.2-0.3291.832.851.7-231.7%----
Act2022-Q10.0-35.4-35.8-35.6-50.7-52.1-1.4323.232.851.6-100.7%----

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $12.50

Dyne Therapeutics is a high-risk clinical-stage biotech burning $100M+/quarter with zero revenue, massive ongoing dilution (~26% annual share count growth), and now a destabilizing mass executive departure. While the FORCE platform targeting DM1 and DMD addresses real unmet medical needs, clinical data is mixed (safety issues forced dose reductions for DYNE-251, potentially limiting efficacy vs. Avidity/Novartis), the BLA timeline extends to late 2027 at earliest, and the competitive landscape has intensified significantly with Novartis acquiring Avidity. The $1.1B cash position provides roughly 2.5-3 years of runway, but another dilutive raise is virtually certain given the proposed doubling of authorized shares. At $3.1B market cap, the stock prices in significant probability of clinical success that current governance chaos and safety signals undermine. The 16% short interest and insider selling patterns reflect legitimate concerns. This is a speculative clinical-stage name where risk/reward has deteriorated materially.

Catalyst Positive Phase 2/3 data readouts for DYNE-251 or DYNE-101 could re-rate the stock significantly; alternatively, a partnership or acquisition by a larger pharma could provide validation and remove financing risk.
Risk The simultaneous departure of three C-suite executives suggests possible undisclosed clinical or strategic problems; combined with safety signals at higher doses and the Novartis/Avidity competitive threat, the probability of clinical and commercial failure is elevated.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
3/10
Exp. Move
-15.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$19.33
Market Cap$3.2B
Enterprise Value$2.2B
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-14.5%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution50.2%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-451.7M
Free Cash Flow$-462.2M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-68.7%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage-42.5x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$5.77
-70.1% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$-953M
= Fair Equity$953M
Revenue Growth0.0% → 8.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → 20.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float15.9%
Short Shares20.7M
Days to Cover11.5
Change (vs Prior)-4.5%
Short % Float History
15.90%+4.50pp
12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)95%
Put IV (ATM)94%
ATM Spread27.1%
Call $OI (near money)$269K
Put $OI (near money)$888K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$17.5
Major Expirations6
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$12.50$3.10/$7.903--/$4.900
$14.00$2.05/$6.900--/$4.908
$15.00$1.20/$6.006--/$4.9011
$16.00$0.80/$5.502$0.10/$4.904
$17.50$0.20/$4.902$0.20/$4.9017
$19.00$0.60/$4.6011$0.90/$5.505
$20.00$0.80/$4.3038$1.55/$6.400
$21.00--/$4.904$2.25/$7.000
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin0.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds18%
Est. Borrow Rate14.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x
LT Growth8.0%
LT FCF Margin20.0%

Employees

Headcount192
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$-5,578
2022: 123 → 2023: 141 → 2024: 191 → 2025: 55,000 (665% CAGR)

Cash Runway

25.2months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 24.2% of float, sold 11.6%. 5 filers moved >1% of shares (4 buying, 1 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+12.7% of float (net)
Bought 24.2% · Sold 11.6%
229 filers reported (last quarter: 240)

Ownership composition

Active
96.0%(+59.2% YoY)
211 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
15.2%(+7.2% YoY)
5 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(-0.1% YoY)
4 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
5.5%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.$558M$18.17+$240M+$537M-1.3%$145.22B
JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC$247M$20.95−$4.4M+$59.7M+1.5%$209.29B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$212M$29.43+$9.2M+$66.2M-0.2%$5.69T
Atlas Venture Life Science Advisors, LLC$166M$10.98+$0+$0+1.7%$790M
FMR LLC$162M$26.85+$42.4M+$67.3M+0.3%$1.89T
Orbis Allan Gray Ltd$123M$19.15+$35.5M+$123M-0.9%$23.40B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$121M$18.97−$707K+$55.2M-0.2%$2.89T
PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC$84.6M$17.53+$21.6M+$42.7M-1.3%$5.04B
FCPM III SERVICES B.V.$84.2M$16.60−$14.8M−$14.8M-9.5%$722M
TCG Crossover Management, LLC$83.7M$14.90+$0+$35.6M+4.8%$3.50B
Vestal Point Capital, LP$72.5M$15.61+$70.3M+$39.9M-0.1%$3.58B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$63.5M$19.59+$4.4M+$28.1M+2.3%$1.61T
ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC$57.6M$13.16−$1.4M+$7.4M-11.3%$3.03B
Frazier Life Sciences Management, L.P.$57.2M$13.61+$0+$31.0M+2.2%$3.89B
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO$55.6M$11.17−$5.4M+$12.3M-0.2%$1.47T
ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC$52.9M$18.34+$13.0M+$34.5M-8.1%$4.38B
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/$42.2M$24.90+$83K+$9.2M-0.2%$864.93B
Siren, L.L.C.$40.4M$16.60−$23.1M−$8.9M+6.4%$3.61B
VR Adviser, LLC$39.4M$11.25+$0+$0-2.4%$2.68B
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC$36.4M$13.05+$44K+$10.8M-0.2%$403.03B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
-0.47%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.67%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.87%
102 buyers · $0.48B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.22%
64 sellers · $0.41B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-5.2%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+7.4%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-14.0%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+5.0%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-3.1%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.1%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.8%
Holder rally (any stock)
-5.2%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

019.0M38.0M57.1M76.1M$6.87$14$21$29$362021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.30.8MFMR LLC8.9MAtlas Venture Life Science Advisors, LLC9.1MFCPM III SERVICES B.V.4.6MJANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC13.6MRTW INVESTMENTS, LPRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.CITADEL ADVISORS LLC201KDeep Track Capital, LP2.0MOrbis Allan Gray Ltd6.8M

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Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (4 analysts)$35.508370.0%
Last Year (18 analysts)$34.677940.0%
Current Price$19.33

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$59.3M
Incentive & Other$69.8M
Total Compensation$129.1M
% of Revenue0.0%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$1.07M
5 txns · 2 insiders · 109,500 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$54.98M
38 txns · 6 insiders · 2,852,583 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-20BUYPosner Brian Sdirector2,500$17.12$43K$308K
2026-05-13SELLCox Johndirector, officer: CEO & President3,311$18.36$61K$6.81M
2026-05-13SELLFriedl-Naderer Johannaofficer: Chief Commercial Officer228$18.36$4K$2.83M
2026-05-13SELLKerr Douglasofficer: Chief Medical Officer1,564$18.36$29K$3.12M
2026-05-13SELLLucera Erickofficer: Chief Financial Officer1,448$18.36$27K$2.28M
2026-05-06SELLRhodes Jason Pdirector83,219$18.18$1.51M$145K
2026-05-05SELLRhodes Jason Pdirector11,600$18.03$209K$151K
2026-05-04SELLRhodes Jason Pdirector11,904$18.00$214K$152K
2026-04-28SELLRhodes Jason Pdirector227,337$18.38$4.18M$156K
2026-04-27SELLRhodes Jason Pdirector173,493$18.15$3.15M$176K
2026-04-24SELLRhodes Jason Pdirector137,948$18.48$2.55M$195K
2026-04-23SELLRhodes Jason Pdirector73,108$19.19$1.40M$217K
2026-04-22SELLKersten Dirkdirector2,652$20.00$53K$83.95M
2026-04-22SELLRhodes Jason Pdirector287,956$19.68$5.67M$230K
2026-04-21SELLKersten Dirkdirector8,300$20.01$166K$84.05M
2026-04-21SELLRhodes Jason Pdirector274,297$19.52$5.35M$257K
2026-04-20SELLKersten Dirkdirector125,274$20.07$2.51M$84.43M
2026-04-20SELLRhodes Jason Pdirector272,049$20.06$5.46M$292K
2026-04-17SELLKersten Dirkdirector211,974$20.29$4.30M$87.92M
2026-04-16SELLKersten Dirkdirector17,773$20.71$368K$94.13M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

13.1%retail-1.9pp
33.9%dark-2.7pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Dyne Therapeutics: Massive Operational Burn Meets High-Cost Debt Covenants

Overall Risk
5/10
Fraud
2/10
Dilution
7/10
Insolvency
4/10
Earnings Overstated
3/10
Hidden Liabilities
4/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
2/10
Hidden Upside
6/10
Contextually Acceptable
8/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

Dyne is currently reeling from a major leadership vacuum following the sudden departure of three senior executives—the Chief Medical Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and Chief Business Officer—as of April 6, 2026. This mass exodus triggered an immediate sell-off and raised significant questions about internal stability and strategic misalignment. Additionally, the company has proposed doubling its authorized common shares from 200 million to 400 million, a move interpreted by the market as a precursor to massive shareholder dilution to fund its widening net loss, which reached $446.2 million in 2025 (TipRanks, Stock Titan).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case rests on significant execution risk and a narrow therapeutic window. While Dyne touts its FORCE platform, clinical data for DYNE-251 shows that safety concerns forced the company to abandon the 40 mg/kg dose after serious treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs). By settling for the 20 mg/kg dose, Dyne faces the risk that its efficacy will lag behind competitors like Avidity Biosciences. Furthermore, the timeline for DM1 (DYNE-101) remains long, with a BLA submission not expected until Q3 2027, leaving a multi-year window for competitors to capture the market or for further regulatory delays to occur (Seeking Alpha, MarketBeat).

🚩 Red Flags

1. Governance Instability: The simultaneous loss of the CMO, COO, and CBO in April 2026 is a classic red flag for underlying operational or clinical distress. 2. Dilution Risk: Seeking approval to increase authorized shares to 400 million signals an aggressive need for capital despite reported cash runways. 3. Safety Signals: Reports of liver enzyme elevations and serious adverse events at higher doses suggest a restricted dose-response profile that could limit clinical utility. 4. Increasing Short Interest: Short interest rose by 7.13% in early April 2026, reaching over 14% of the float, indicating growing professional conviction against the stock (MarketBeat, TipRanks).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Dyne is in a high-stakes arms race with Avidity Biosciences, which gained a massive strategic advantage following its acquisition by Novartis. Analysts have noted that DYNE-251's efficacy numerically lags behind Avidity's comparable programs. In the DM1 space, Dyne’s regulatory timeline was already pushed back once in 2025, allowing peers to solidify their lead in clinical enrollment and physician mindshare (Seeking Alpha, Clinical Trials Arena).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Patient and investigator sentiment is clouded by the clinical trial delays experienced in 2025 and the safety profile of the higher-dose cohorts. While the patient community remains hopeful for treatments, the history of protocol revisions and serious adverse events (including malaise and fever in extension trials) creates a cautious 'wait-and-see' attitude among clinicians who are wary of the platform’s long-term safety compared to standard-of-care or emerging rivals (Parent Project MD, Muscular Dystrophy News).