Stocks/BANX

BANX

ArrowMark Financial Corp.
Financial Services·Asset Management
$19.80
$155M market cap
Claude Rating
4/10UNDERWEIGHT
Revenue
$17.4M
Free Cash Flow
$10.9M
Rev Growth
-21.5%
FCF Margin
62.6%
P/FCF
14.2x
EV/FCF
16.3x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
15.5x
Fair Value
$16.50
Upside
-16.7%

StoneCastle Financial Corp. is a closed ended balanced mutual fund launched and managed by StoneCastle Asset Management LLC. It invests in public equity markets of the United States. The fund invests in stocks of companies operating across the banking sector. It invests in dividend paying growth and value stocks of companies. For its fixed income portion, the fund invests in subordinated debt securities which are rated BBB- or better by Kroll Ratings. The fund employs fundamental analysis with b

2-Year Price History

$19.69+30.7%
$16$17$18$19$20$21volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q48.86.3--4.8--4.4-0.017.7----------
Est2027-Q24.63.4--2.5--2.1-0.013.3----------
Est2026-Q49.87.4--5.7--5.4-0.011.2----------
Est2026-Q25.24.1--3.3--2.6-0.05.8----------
Act2025-Q411.59.39.37.68.38.3-0.03.225.27.820.5%5.5x8.2x
Act2025-Q25.912.612.610.32.62.6-0.017.964.57.121.3%--8.2x
Act2024-Q414.711.511.69.312.16.9-0.02.746.87.122.6%5.8x8.1x
Act2024-Q214.811.911.97.512.16.9-0.01.858.87.121.9%6.0x8.0x
Act2023-Q415.212.012.111.215.115.1-0.00.445.07.124.8%3.4x7.6x
Act2023-Q213.510.510.59.16.46.4-0.00.10.07.142.5%--6.6x
Act2022-Q411.88.88.85.27.97.9-0.00.455.67.116.7%--11.3x
Act2022-Q29.76.96.90.27.97.9-0.00.10.07.128.6%----
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
TTM19.80-6.7%96.6%450.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude4/10UNDERWEIGHTFV: $16.50

BANX is a shrinking income story disguised by a high trailing yield. With ~86% of the portfolio in floating-rate RCR securities, the fund's net investment income is directly tied to short-term rates, which are declining. The recent dilutive rights offering at a 10% NAV discount, accelerating NAV erosion (down 6% in 4 months), near-doubling of short interest, and the cosmetic shift to monthly distributions all point to a fund under pressure. The 11% trailing yield is likely unsustainable in a 2026-2027 rate-cutting cycle and will need to be reduced, which could trigger retail selling. At $19.50/share vs. an NAV already down to ~$21.18 and falling, the discount to NAV is modest protection given the trajectory. Competition from larger, better-capitalized players like Eagle Point entering the RCR space further threatens the franchise. This is a below-average risk/reward where the biggest historical tailwind (high rates) is reversing.

Catalyst Further Fed rate cuts compressing NII below the distribution level, forcing a dividend cut that reprices the stock materially lower; continued NAV erosion as RCR securities reprice; potential additional dilutive capital raises.
Risk If the Fed pauses or reverses rate cuts due to persistent inflation, floating-rate income stabilizes and the current yield becomes sustainable, making the stock attractive to income investors.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$19.80
Market Cap$155M
Enterprise Value$177M
P/S Ratio8.9x
P/FCF14.2x
EV/FCF16.3x
FCF Margin (TTM)62.6%
FCF Yield7.0%
Dividend Yield (TTM)12.4%
Annual Dilution9.7%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$17.4M
Net Income$17.9M
Free Cash Flow$10.9M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-21.5%
EBITDA Margin125.8%
Net Margin103.0%
FCF Margin62.6%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC20.9%
WC Change % Rev-31.3%
Interest Coverage13.0x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$2.44
-87.7% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$41M
− Net Debt$22M
= Fair Equity$19M
Revenue Growth-10.7% → 1.5%
FCF Margin62.6% → 50.0%
Discount Rate15.0%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float0.2%
Short Shares0.0M
Days to Cover1.0
Change (vs Prior)+4.7%
Short % Float History
0.20%-0.10pp
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)--
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread--
Call $OI (near money)$3K
Put $OI (near money)$324
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$19.6
Major Expirations1
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$15.00$2.20/$7.000--/$2.700
$17.10$0.10/$4.900--/$2.853
$17.50$0.10/$4.905--/$2.903
$19.60--/$3.400--/$1.003
$20.00$0.25/$3.006--/$3.800
$22.10--/$4.1079$0.50/$4.900
$22.50--/$4.100$0.65/$5.500
$24.60--/$4.000$2.70/$7.501
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-13.6%
Forward FCF Margin53.3%
Forward EBITDA Margin76.0%
Forward P/FCF19.4x
Forward EV/FCF22.1x
Forward Int. Coverage6.0x
Model Risk Score7/10
Bankruptcy Odds3%
Est. Borrow Rate7.5%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x
LT Growth1.5%
LT FCF Margin50.0%

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 5.5% of float, sold 0.6%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+4.9% of float (net)
Bought 5.5% · Sold 0.6%
36 filers reported (last quarter: 34)

Ownership composition

Active
23.7%(+9.3% YoY)
34 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
0 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
0 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
0.6%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
ArrowMark Colorado Holdings LLC$16.9M$21.17+$1.5M+$13.1M-4.3%$3.74B
RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC$3.7M$18.73+$752K+$174K-0.0%$322.69B
STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP$2.6M$13.59−$321K−$768K-0.3%$108.17B
ADVISOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.$2.2M$17.35+$1.3M+$1.8M-0.3%$67.63B
Noble Wealth Management PBC$2.0M$19.57+$488K+$1.1M+1.4%$195M
Almitas Capital LLC$1.4M$19.06+$1.4M+$1.4M+2.7%$442M
Closed-End Fund Advisors, Inc.$1.3M$21.55+$8K+$1.3M-3.0%$98.3M
Hudson Bay Capital Management LP$1.1M$19.06+$1.1M+$1.1M+1.9%$15.12B
Everstar Asset Management, LLC$902K$18.88+$22K+$446K+0.7%$188M
MORGAN STANLEY$643K$17.68+$33K+$432K-0.3%$1.65T
CSS LLC/IL$603K$19.06+$603K+$603K+2.3%$794M
CALDWELL SUTTER CAPITAL, INC.$490K$18.54+$476K+$477K-1.4%$246M
Capital Investment Advisors, LLC$462K$12.88−$33K−$81K+0.0%$6.82B
OPPENHEIMER & CO INC$452K$17.59+$22K−$21K-0.1%$8.20B
Falcon Wealth Planning$308K$16.20−$26K−$51K+0.2%$1.47B
Catalina Capital Group, LLC$300K$18.40+$0+$103K-0.5%$163M
Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.$281K$20.84+$0+$281K-0.1%$56.28B
Accurate Wealth Management, LLC$259K$20.85−$23K+$259K-0.3%$826M
Private Advisor Group, LLC$234K$20.49+$24K+$234K-0.1%$21.04B
MAI Capital Management$100K$18.64+$0+$0-0.1%$17.61B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-1.88%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-1.87%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+1.17%
14 buyers · $0.01B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.24%
6 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+6.6%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-2.6%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-30.9%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-5.7%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+1.6%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-5.5%
Holder mid (any stock)
-7.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-9.3%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

0412K825K1.2M1.6M$12$14$17$19$222021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
ArrowMark Colorado Holdings LLC885KPUNCH & ASSOCIATES INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC.Greenwich Investment Management, Inc.ADVISOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.114KRaymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc.RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC195KSTIFEL FINANCIAL CORP139KRound Rock Advisors, LLCOxbow Advisors, LLCNoble Wealth Management PBC106K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
6
2
Buy: 6Hold: 2Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2024 Q44M4M3M$0.43$0.43 – $0.431
2025 Q14M4M3M$0.43$0.43 – $0.431
2025 Q24M4M3M$0.43$0.43 – $0.431
2025 Q34M4M3M$0.43$0.43 – $0.431
2025 Q44M4M3M$0.42$0.42 – $0.421
2026 Q14M4M3M$0.42$0.42 – $0.421
2026 Q25M4M3M$0.42$0.42 – $0.421
2026 Q35M4M4M$0.45$0.45 – $0.451
2026 Q45M4M4M$0.46$0.46 – $0.461
2027 Q15M4M4M$0.46$0.46 – $0.461

Corporate

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$28K
1 txn · 1 insider · 1,500 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-03-27BUYMarano Thompson Melissadirector1,500$18.77$28K$28K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

45.6%retail+4.6pp
16.7%dark-1.5pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In February 2026, ArrowMark Financial completed a transferable rights offering that raised approximately $37 million, but at a dilutive subscription price of $19.79, which was set at a 90% discount to the prevailing Net Asset Value (NAV) (Source: ArrowMark Financial, GuruFocus). Additionally, the company transitioned from quarterly to monthly distributions in December 2025, a move that masked a trending decline in NAV, which dropped from $22.60 in November 2025 to $21.18 by February 28, 2026 (Source: Stock Titan, MarketBeat).

🐻 Bear Case

The core bear case centers on interest rate sensitivity and income compression. Approximately 85.7% of BANX's portfolio is invested in regulatory capital relief (RCR) securities, which are floating-rate instruments. As the Federal Reserve moves toward rate cuts in 2026, the yield on these assets will shrink, likely eliminating the special dividends that have historically padded returns (Source: Seeking Alpha, Dividend Kings). Furthermore, the recent rights offering at a 10% discount to NAV suggests the fund may be struggling to raise capital through more traditional, less dilutive means.

🚩 Red Flags

NAV erosion is a major red flag, with the fund losing nearly 6% of its underlying value in the four months leading into March 2026 (Source: Global Newswire). Technical analysis from Intellectia AI and Barchart recently flagged the stock as a 'Strong Sell' candidate due to its price falling below the 200-day moving average and a 'falling trend' signal (Source: Intellectia, American Banking News). Short interest, while low in absolute terms, saw high volatility during the rights offering period.

⚔️ Competitive Threats

BANX is facing increased competition in the high-yield regulatory capital space, which was previously a 'retail-locked' niche. Eagle Point Credit (ECC) has begun diversifying into RCR securities, directly challenging BANX's primary investment strategy (Source: Seeking Alpha). Additionally, when compared to industry peers like Crescent Capital BDC (CCAP), BANX shows inferior institutional backing (24.9% vs 49.5%) and lower return on equity (Source: MarketBeat).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Investor sentiment is turning neutral-to-bearish as the 'easy money' from high floating rates peaks. Analysts at Stock Traders Daily report a 'breakdown underway' with no immediate long-term support signals, while retail sentiment on platforms like Seeking Alpha expresses concern that the 11% yield may not be sustainable in a falling-rate environment (Source: Stock Traders Daily, Seeking Alpha).