Stocks/NXP

NXP

Nuveen Select Tax-Free Income Portfolio
Financial Services·Asset Management - Income
$14.30
$744M market cap
Claude Rating
4/10UNDERWEIGHT
Revenue
$32.9M
Free Cash Flow
$0.0M
Rev Growth
+10.5%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
27.7x
Fair Value
$13.80
Upside
-3.5%

Nuveen Select Tax-Free Income Portfolio is a closed-ended fixed income mutual fund launched by Nuveen Investments Inc. The fund is co-managed by Nuveen Fund Advisors LLC and Nuveen Asset Management, LLC. It invests in the fixed income markets of United States. The fund invests in the investment-grade municipal securities rated Baa and BBB or better. It benchmarks the performance of its portfolio against the Standard & Poor's (S&P) National Municipal Bond Index and Lipper General and Insured Unle

2-Year Price History

$14.11+6.3%
$13$13$14$14$14$14$14volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2026-Q419.813.9--12.9--0.0-0.06.0----------
Est2026-Q219.513.7--12.7--0.0-0.06.0----------
Est2025-Q419.013.7--12.7--0.0-0.06.0----------
Est2025-Q218.513.9--13.0--0.0-0.06.0----------
Act2024-Q417.0-10.2-10.2-10.50.00.0-0.06.026.450.9-6.9%--77.2x
Act2024-Q216.019.820.120.00.00.0-0.03.40.149.214.6%3041.6x34.4x
Act2023-Q415.40.014.654.80.00.0-0.00.30.147.911.4%0.0x--
Act2023-Q214.80.014.1-23.40.00.0-0.00.03.947.913.3%0.0x--
Act2022-Q414.50.013.847.90.00.0-0.00.10.093.611.4%----
Act2022-Q210.90.010.1-48.20.00.0-0.00.11.193.69.5%0.0x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
TTM14.30+13.4%15.1%100.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude4/10UNDERWEIGHTFV: $13.80

NXP is a modestly yielding closed-end municipal bond fund now carrying elevated concentration risk in California and New York following forced mergers. The ~4.4% distribution yield is competitive but potentially at risk given the absorption of lower-coupon portfolios and evidence that NII may not fully cover the payout. Trading at a slight premium to NAV with 6% annual dilution, the risk/reward is unattractive relative to lower-cost muni ETF alternatives. The fund is safe from a credit perspective but offers limited total return upside and faces structural headwinds from dilution, yield compression, and competitive pressure from cheaper passive vehicles.

Catalyst A reversion to a discount to NAV (historically common for CEFs post-merger) could create a buying opportunity, or alternatively a sustained rise in muni yields could boost NII and support the distribution. Clarity on post-merger portfolio yield and distribution sustainability is the key near-term catalyst.
Risk Distribution cut if net investment income fails to cover the current payout rate post-merger, which would likely push the fund to a meaningful discount and trigger selling pressure from income-focused holders.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
6/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-2.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$14.30
Market Cap$744M
Enterprise Value$764M
P/S Ratio22.6x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield0.0%
Dividend Yield (TTM)4.5%
Annual Dilution6.1%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$32.9M
Net Income$9.5M
Free Cash Flow$0.0M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+10.5%
EBITDA Margin29.0%
Net Margin29.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC3.8%
WC Change % Rev-20.9%
Interest Coverage1468.3x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$0.00
-100.0% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$20M
= Fair Equity$0M
Revenue Growth4.8% → 2.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → 5.0%
Discount Rate12.0%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float0.1%
Short Shares0.0M
Days to Cover1.0
Change (vs Prior)+13.6%
Short % Float History
0.10%+0.00pp
0.1%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.3%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+13.8%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin73.5%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage734.8x
Model Risk Score4/10
Bankruptcy Odds1%
Est. Borrow Rate4.5%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x
LT Growth2.0%
LT FCF Margin5.0%

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 4.3% of float, sold 0.3%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+4.0% of float (net)
Bought 4.3% · Sold 0.3%
111 filers reported (last quarter: 102)

Ownership composition

Active
19.3%(+2.9% YoY)
112 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
1 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
1 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
UBS Group AG$20.5M$12.31+$1.7M−$374K-0.3%$562.11B
GUGGENHEIM CAPITAL LLC$19.3M$13.96+$4.8M+$10.3M-0.2%$12.48B
Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, Inc.$11.5M$13.43−$724K−$3.5M-1.2%$2.97B
STEPHENS INC /AR/$9.6M$12.40+$1.3M+$2.3M-0.1%$7.96B
MORGAN STANLEY$7.8M$13.50+$2.4M+$1.5M-0.3%$1.65T
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$7.8M$12.78+$1.3M+$1.4M-0.1%$1.36T
Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc.$5.7M$12.25−$383K−$1.2M-0.3%$38.49B
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP$5.7M$13.47+$1.8M+$3.1M+0.8%$133.17B
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN$5.1M$12.39−$404K−$1.2M-0.2%$497.71B
JONES FINANCIAL COMPANIES LLLP$4.6M$14.09+$1.7M+$2.4M-0.1%$208.07B
RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC$4.5M$14.34+$1.3M+$876K-0.0%$322.69B
LPL Financial LLC$4.0M$13.73+$2.0M+$2.0M-0.2%$372.65B
COMMONWEALTH EQUITY SERVICES, LLC$3.4M$13.52+$390K+$321K-0.3%$71.14B
Prospera Financial Services Inc$3.0M$13.45+$10K+$206K+0.1%$6.19B
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA$2.1M$13.67+$666K+$704K-0.2%$526.36B
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC$1.6M$13.28+$606K+$29K-0.1%$430.96B
Stratos Wealth Partners, LTD.$1.5M$13.83+$609K+$965K-0.2%$8.78B
Capital Advisors Wealth Management, LLC$1.5M$14.08+$878K+$964K+0.1%$731M
MELFA WEALTH MANAGEMENT, INC.$1.4M$12.33+$157K+$157K+1.2%$174M
ADVISOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.$1.2M$13.36+$377K+$720K-0.3%$67.63B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-0.19%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.19%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.09%
62 buyers · $0.03B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.10%
16 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior (holder profile)source: holder
On big dips (−10%+)
+0.3%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-1.3%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+5.7%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+4.0%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+2.3%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

01.5M3.1M4.6M6.1M$11$12$13$14$142021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
UBS Group AG1.4MGUGGENHEIM CAPITAL LLC1.3MHennion & Walsh Asset Management, Inc.802K1607 Capital Partners, LLCSTEPHENS INC /AR/666KBANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/542KWELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN357KCambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc.397KMORGAN STANLEY546KAdvisors Asset Management, Inc.21K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
2
Hold: 2Consensus: Hold

Corporate

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

54.1%retail+1.9pp
8.4%dark-5.1pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In January 2026, Nuveen completed a significant reorganization by merging the Nuveen California Select Tax-Free Income Portfolio (NXC) and the Nuveen New York Select Tax-Free Income Portfolio (NXN) into NXP. While intended to create a larger, more liquid fund with lower operating expenses, the merger faced significant shareholder opposition, leading to a one-month delay in the final vote (Source: Business Wire, Stock Titan).

🐻 Bear Case

The primary bear case rests on yield dilution and distribution instability. Historically, NXP had higher yields than its merger targets (NXC and NXN); as these lower-coupon state-specific funds are absorbed, NXP's future distribution capacity may be dragged down. Additionally, as of late 2025, NXP was reportedly not fully earning its payout through net investment income, raising concerns that future dividends may be unsustainable or rely on destructive return of capital (Source: Seeking Alpha, Dec 2025).

🚩 Red Flags

The fund's concentration risk has shifted significantly; by absorbing large California and New York portfolios, NXP is now disproportionately exposed to two high-tax, high-debt states, which may not align with the risk profile of national municipal bond investors. Furthermore, NXP traded at a premium (0.70%) to its NAV in April 2026, a precarious position for a CEF if performance lags and it reverts to a historical discount (Source: Nuveen, CEF Connect).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

NXP faces intense competition from larger, lower-cost municipal bond ETFs and other Nuveen-managed funds like the Nuveen Municipal Value Fund (NUV) and Nuveen Quality Municipal Income Fund (NZF). With a projected record supply of new municipal bonds in 2026 ($600B+), any failure to attract sufficient demand could cause NXP's total returns to lag behind broader fixed-income benchmarks (Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Charles Schwab).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among long-term shareholders has turned skeptical following the reorganization. Vocal pushback from investors centered on the 'forced' exposure to state-specific tax liabilities for those who previously sought a national-only exposure. Some institutional analysts have moved to a 'Hold' or 'Sell' sentiment pending clarity on the new portfolio's weighted average coupon and allocation (Source: Seeking Alpha).