NERV
Minerva Neurosciences, Inc.Minerva Neurosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of product candidates for the treatment of central nervous system diseases. Its lead product candidate is roluperidone for the treatment of schizophrenia; and MIN-301, a soluble recombinant form of the neuregulin-1b1 protein for the treatment of Parkinson's disease and other neurodegenerative disorders. Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. has a license agreement with Mitsubishi Tanab
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 78.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 78.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 78.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 78.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 78.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 78.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 78.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | -16.7 | -16.7 | -125.4 | -5,427 | -5,427 | -0.0 | 78.2 | 65.0 | 43.9 | -102.7% | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 78.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -283.7 | -5.0 | -283.7 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -0.0 | 82.3 | 0.0 | 11.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 0.0 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -2.9 | -2.9 | -0.0 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 7.6 | -125.1% | -- | 0.0x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.0 | -3.3 | -3.4 | -3.3 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -0.0 | 15.3 | 0.0 | 7.6 | -114.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 0.0 | -4.3 | -4.5 | -4.3 | -5.2 | -5.2 | -0.0 | 21.4 | 0.0 | 7.6 | -98.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 0.0 | 22.5 | -4.4 | 22.5 | -4.4 | -4.4 | -0.0 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 7.6 | -76.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.0 | -5.9 | -6.3 | -8.2 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -0.0 | 31.0 | 86.6 | 7.6 | -29.0% | -2.6x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.0 | -6.3 | -6.7 | -8.6 | -6.1 | -6.1 | -0.0 | 34.9 | 84.3 | 7.6 | -31.7% | -2.8x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 0.0 | -6.8 | -7.2 | -9.0 | -6.0 | -6.0 | -0.0 | 40.9 | 0.0 | 7.6 | -- | -3.1x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 0.0 | -5.7 | -6.1 | -7.8 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -0.0 | 46.9 | 0.0 | 7.6 | -382.6% | -2.8x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.0 | -4.2 | -4.5 | -6.2 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -0.0 | 51.8 | 0.0 | 5.5 | -128.2% | -2.0x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 0.0 | -5.0 | -5.4 | -7.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | -- | -2.5x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 0.0 | -4.8 | -5.1 | -6.7 | -4.1 | -4.1 | -0.0 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 5.3 | -- | -2.5x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 0.0 | -5.0 | -5.2 | -6.9 | -9.5 | -9.5 | -0.0 | 40.2 | 0.0 | 5.3 | -- | -2.7x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.0 | -6.9 | -7.0 | -8.7 | -5.2 | -5.2 | -0.0 | 49.8 | 69.9 | 5.3 | -39.8% | -3.8x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 0.0 | -8.0 | -8.0 | -9.8 | -5.8 | -5.8 | -0.0 | 55.0 | 68.1 | 5.3 | -46.9% | -4.5x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.59 | — | — | -25 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| 2023 | 6.15 | — | — | -22 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| 2024 | 2.22 | — | — | 6 | — | — | 14.1× | — |
| TTM | 4.91 | — | — | -306 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | — |
| 2026E | 4.91 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
NERV is a single-asset, pre-revenue clinical-stage biotech trading at ~$8/share despite a $2.11 conversion price on massively dilutive preferred stock that will increase shares outstanding by ~500%. The sole asset, roluperidone, already failed at the FDA once (CRL Feb 2024) and requires a full new Phase 3 trial with topline data not expected until H2 2027. Even in a success scenario, post-dilution share counts of ~45M+ shares imply the current $56M market cap is pricing in substantial probability of approval that the clinical history does not support. Analyst consensus target of $4.00 is well below the current $8.01 price, and the stock has already surged 300%+ pricing in the Vivo financing news. The risk/reward is deeply unfavorable for common shareholders given the dilution overhang, binary clinical risk, and multi-year timeline. This is a SELL — the financing terms essentially cap fundamental value near $2-3/share on a fully diluted basis unless the Phase 3 delivers exceptional results AND the company negotiates a favorable partnership/commercialization deal.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 260.7% of float, sold 35.4%. 14 filers moved >1% of shares (11 buying, 3 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEDERATED HERMES, INC. | $30.8M | $4.00 | −$1.6M | +$22.7M | -1.1% | $61.33B |
| Vivo Capital, LLC | $26.0M | $4.02 | +$0 | +$26.0M | -7.0% | $1.20B |
| JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC | $25.9M | $6.03 | +$25.9M | +$25.9M | +1.2% | $209.29B |
| BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $25.7M | $6.03 | +$25.7M | +$25.7M | -0.4% | $48.01B |
| Logos Global Management LP | $19.4M | $4.02 | −$579K | +$19.4M | -1.6% | $1.94B |
| FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $14.2M | $4.02 | +$0 | +$14.2M | -0.4% | $15.27B |
| Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | $12.0M | $6.03 | +$12.0M | +$12.0M | +9.3% | $460M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $11.1M | $6.03 | +$11.1M | +$11.1M | — | $4.04T |
| Ally Bridge Group (NY) LLC | $10.0M | $4.02 | +$0 | +$10.0M | -5.1% | $101M |
| Spruce Street Capital LP | $10.0M | $4.02 | +$0 | +$10.0M | +53.5% | $416M |
| ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C. | $8.5M | $4.02 | −$8.6M | +$8.5M | -0.1% | $64.61B |
| Trails Edge Capital Partners, LP | $8.5M | $6.03 | +$8.6M | +$8.5M | +11.9% | $425M |
| DV Trading LLCMM | $5.4M | $6.03 | +$5.4M | +$5.4M | +3.1% | $1.10B |
| ACUTA CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC | $4.3M | $4.02 | +$0 | +$4.3M | -3.3% | $141M |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $4.3M | $5.45 | +$3.4M | +$4.3M | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $3.8M | $5.64 | +$3.3M | +$3.3M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $2.0M | $5.51 | +$1.6M | +$1.6M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $1.6M | $6.03 | +$1.6M | +$1.6M | — | $395.83B |
| Seven Fleet Capital Management LP | $1.5M | $6.03 | +$1.5M | +$1.5M | +44.6% | $315M |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | $1.3M | $6.03 | +$1.3M | +$1.3M | +0.6% | $92.71B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 55.4%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
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Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -3M | $-0.35 | $-0.35 – $-0.35 | 1 |
| 2025 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -3M | $-0.30 | $-0.30 – $-0.30 | 1 |
| 2026 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -6M | $-0.13 | $-0.13 – $-0.13 | 1 |
| 2026 Q2 | 0M | 0M | -8M | $-0.19 | $-0.19 – $-0.19 | 1 |
| 2026 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -9M | $-0.21 | $-0.21 – $-0.21 | 1 |
| 2026 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -9M | $-0.21 | $-0.21 – $-0.21 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -8M | $-0.19 | $-0.19 – $-0.19 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 0M | 0M | -9M | $-0.20 | $-0.20 – $-0.20 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -5M | $-0.12 | $-0.12 – $-0.12 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -5M | $-0.11 | $-0.11 – $-0.11 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Minerva Neurosciences: Massive structural dilution and insider option acceleration mask a 0.8 billion dollar deficit
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In October 2025, Minerva secured a transformative financing deal of up to $200 million, led by Vivo Capital, to fund a confirmatory Phase 3 trial for its lead candidate, roluperidone. The FDA has officially cleared the design for this trial, which targets the negative symptoms of schizophrenia—a condition for which there is currently no FDA-approved therapy. The company announced it expects to enroll the first patient in Q2 2026, with topline results projected for H2 2027 (Fintool News, Stocktwits).
The primary bear thesis rests on the company's long-dated timeline and historical regulatory failures, including a February 2024 Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA. Bears argue that even with the new $200M funding, the company faces years of cash burn and execution risk before potential commercialization in 2028 or beyond. Furthermore, the $200M financing involves significant potential dilution, with $120 million tied to the exercise of warrants (Quiver Quantitative).
Despite the stock's 300% surge in late 2025, many institutional analysts remain skeptical; as of late February 2026, the consensus rating remains 'Reduce' with an average price target of $4.00, well below recent trading levels near $6.00 (MarketBeat). The stock also displays extreme volatility, with a beta of -0.30 and high daily price swings (StockInvest.us).
While roluperidone is positioned as a potential first-in-class treatment for negative symptoms, the schizophrenia landscape is becoming more competitive with the emergence of novel agents like Bristol Myers Squibb's Cobenfy (KarXT), which addresses different symptom domains but could overshadow roluperidone if its clinical profile is perceived as more comprehensive by clinicians (Fintool News).
Sentiment among retail investors on platforms like Stocktwits turned 'extremely bullish' following the FDA alignment news in late 2025. More notably, insider sentiment is ranked as 'Very Positive,' with 12 different insiders collectively purchasing or receiving approximately $20.5M worth of shares over the past year, signaling high internal confidence in the new Phase 3 path (StockInvest.us, Stocktwits).