Stocks/XOMA

XOMA

XOMA Royalty Corp.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$41.71
$523M market cap
Claude Rating
5/10HOLD
Revenue
$36.2M
Free Cash Flow
$6.6M
Rev Growth
-22.6%
FCF Margin
18.3%
P/FCF
78.8x
EV/FCF
83.3x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
22.1x
Fair Value
$28.00
Upside
-32.9%

XOMA Royalty Corp. operates as a biotechnology royalty aggregator in Europe, the United States, and the Asia Pacific. The company engages in helping biotech companies for enhancing human health. It acquires the potential future economics associated with pre-commercial therapeutic candidates that have been licensed to pharmaceutical or biotechnology companies. The company focuses on early to mid-stage clinical assets primarily in Phase 1 and 2 with commercial sales potential that are licensed to

2-Year Price History

$41.65+73.2%
$20$25$30$35$40volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q315.08.3--2.7--3.0-0.0116.9----------
Est2027-Q217.011.6--5.1--6.0-0.0113.9----------
Est2027-Q113.05.9--0.7--0.7-0.0107.9----------
Est2026-Q416.011.2--4.8--5.6-0.0107.3----------
Est2026-Q312.56.3--1.9--1.9-0.0101.7----------
Est2026-Q214.09.1--3.5--4.2-0.099.8----------
Est2026-Q110.53.7---0.5---1.6-0.095.6----------
Act2026-Q112.30.4-0.54.56.06.0-0.095.0124.717.4-1.2%0.1x17.2x
Est2025-Q411.06.1--1.1--2.2-0.097.2----------
Act2025-Q41.410.12.26.1-5.5-5.5-0.082.9131.618.15.6%3.3x10.9x
Act2025-Q39.418.3-1.314.1-0.3-0.3-0.092.0131.918.1-3.4%5.5x31.4x
Act2025-Q213.113.14.66.96.46.4-0.083.9114.617.814.7%4.0x--
Act2025-Q115.96.45.92.42.22.2-0.092.7114.514.720.2%1.8x--
Act2024-Q48.7-26.5-7.3-4.0-2.9-2.9-0.0105.2119.211.9-15.8%-7.8x--
Act2024-Q37.2-13.8-15.6-17.2-8.7-8.7-0.0142.8118.911.7-51.6%-3.9x--
Act2024-Q25.719.4-10.116.02.72.7-0.0144.6121.911.7-28.9%5.7x152.3x
Act2024-Q11.5-5.0-7.0-8.6-5.5-5.5-0.0136.8121.111.6-23.1%-1.4x--
Act2023-Q41.8-7.0-19.9-20.1-3.9-3.9-0.0153.5124.511.5-64.1%-12.4x--
Act2023-Q30.8-5.6-5.8-5.5-2.1-2.1-0.033.70.011.5-264.1%----
Act2023-Q21.7-4.2-6.0-5.4-7.2-7.2-0.031.80.011.5-181.3%----
Act2023-Q10.4-5.8-10.2-9.8-4.9-4.9-0.044.60.111.5-227.6%----
Act2022-Q41.5-6.1-6.2-6.0-3.9-3.9-0.058.20.011.5-89.3%----
Act2022-Q30.5-4.4-4.4-4.2-3.7-3.7-0.078.70.111.5-50.5%----
Act2022-Q21.0-4.8-4.8-4.7-4.3-4.3-0.083.70.111.4-47.8%----
Act2022-Q13.1-2.1-2.1-2.3-1.0-1.0-0.088.30.211.3-18.1%----
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
202218.40-287.2%-17n/mn/mn/m32.3×
202318.50-21.1%-474.2%-23n/mn/mn/m33.8×
202426.28+384.6%-112.1%-26n/mn/mn/m13.7×
202526.59+72.7%120.1%4810.9×186.2×16.0×11.8×
TTM41.71-3.3%115.5%420.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E41.71+46.3%0.6%00.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude5/10HOLDFV: $28.00

XOMA is an interesting niche royalty aggregator with a potentially attractive long-duration portfolio of 120+ biotech assets, anchored by Vabysmo royalties. However, the investment case is severely complicated by: (1) extreme revenue lumpiness and dependence on third-party clinical outcomes, (2) high-cost debt (~10% interest) that consumes a large share of near-term cash flows, (3) massive dilution from Series X preferred and warrants, (4) inflated reported earnings from non-recurring bargain purchase gains, and (5) a tiny employee base managing an increasingly complex portfolio. The TREMFYA litigation could be a meaningful catalyst, and the Twist Bioscience agreement offers long-dated optionality. At ~$27/share, the stock is pricing in meaningful portfolio appreciation that hasn't yet materialized in recurring cash flows. The seralutinib failure highlights the fragility of the model. Net-net, this is a speculative hold — the optionality is real but so are the structural risks.

Catalyst Favorable resolution of Janssen/TREMFYA litigation could deliver a significant milestone payment. Continued Vabysmo commercial ramp and potential new royalty-generating approvals from the 120+ asset portfolio could drive revenue inflection.
Risk Binary clinical trial outcomes on key assets (like the seralutinib failure) can materially impair portfolio value overnight, while the 9.875% debt service obligation creates a fixed cash drain regardless of royalty performance.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
6/10
Quarter
6/10
Exp. Move
+2.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$41.71
Market Cap$523M
Enterprise Value$553M
P/S Ratio14.4x
P/FCF78.8x
EV/FCF83.3x
FCF Margin (TTM)18.3%
FCF Yield1.3%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution18.2%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$36.2M
Net Income$31.5M
Free Cash Flow$6.6M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-22.6%
EBITDA Margin115.5%
Net Margin87.0%
FCF Margin18.3%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue10.8%
ROIC3.9%
WC Change % Rev-10.8%
Interest Coverage3.1x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$13.42
-67.8% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$264M
− Net Debt$30M
= Fair Equity$234M
Revenue Growth27.1% → 5.0%
FCF Margin18.3% → 45.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF14.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float7.0%
Short Shares0.8M
Days to Cover1.5
Change (vs Prior)-31.5%
Short % Float History
7.00%+5.30pp
2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)23%
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread11.5%
Call $OI (near money)$36K
Put $OI (near money)$2.3M
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$40.0
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$25.00$14.50/$19.500--/$5.000
$30.00$9.50/$14.500--/$5.000
$35.00$4.50/$9.500--/$5.000
$40.00$0.20/$5.000--/$5.000
$45.00--/$5.000$1.50/$6.500
$50.00--/$5.000$6.50/$11.400
$55.00--/$5.000$11.50/$16.400
$60.00--/$5.000$16.50/$21.400
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+32.5%
Forward FCF Margin14.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin52.2%
Forward P/FCF78.1x
Forward EV/FCF82.5x
Forward Int. Coverage1.9x
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds8%
Est. Borrow Rate11.0%
Terminal EV/FCF14.0x
LT Growth5.0%
LT FCF Margin45.0%

Employees

Headcount13
Revenue / Employee$2,786,923
Gross Profit / Employee$2,599,923
2022: 12 → 2023: 13 → 2024: 13 → 2025: 14 (5% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 12.6% of float, sold 2.1%. 4 filers moved >1% of shares (4 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+10.5% of float (net)
Bought 12.6% · Sold 2.1%
52 filers reported (last quarter: 74)

Ownership composition

Active
47.5%(+23.2% YoY)
71 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
12.0%(+6.5% YoY)
9 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.2%(+0.1% YoY)
4 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
18.4%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BVF INC/IL$81.3M$18.60+$0−$12.3M-0.3%$3.14B
MORGAN STANLEY$53.4M$23.48−$392K+$18.2M-0.3%$1.65T
FMR LLC$40.9M$24.74+$4.4M+$6.7M-0.0%$1.89T
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$20.3M$26.65+$1.1M+$3.6M-0.2%$5.69T
Woodline Partners LP$20.1M$29.05+$11.8M+$14.8M-0.1%$26.43B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$17.2M$31.37+$17.2M+$17.2M$4.04T
Opaleye Management Inc.$9.4M$21.91+$232K+$1.5M+1.0%$759M
GW&K Investment Management, LLC$7.3M$31.37+$7.3M+$7.3M+2.3%$11.34B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$7.2M$22.63+$257K+$1.4M+2.3%$1.61T
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$6.4M$27.22+$6.0M+$6.0M-0.5%$127.40B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$6.1M$23.41+$572K+$1.5M-0.2%$2.89T
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$4.2M$28.25+$2.8M+$3.5M-0.4%$480.92B
TLS Advisors LLC$3.6M$22.94+$2.1M−$131K-0.3%$42.1M
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$3.1M$28.39+$2.9M+$2.8M-0.4%$138.22B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$2.9M$21.33+$97K+$139K-0.2%$755.34B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$2.7M$31.37+$2.7M+$2.7M$1.91T
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$2.4M$23.84+$207K+$536K-0.2%$543.21B
UBS Group AG$2.3M$28.22+$1.5M+$2.1M-0.3%$562.11B
Stonepine Capital Management, LLC$2.2M$19.64−$1.4M−$1.9M-6.0%$113M
Simcoe Capital LLC$2.1M$31.37+$2.1M+$2.1M+6.9%$109M
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.11%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.10%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.53%
45 buyers · $0.08B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.14%
20 sellers · $-0.00B out
alpha coverage: 93% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-12.8%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-15.6%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+7.3%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+1.4%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+12.3%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-4.0%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.3%
Holder rally (any stock)
-3.6%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

01.8M3.5M5.3M7.1M$14$20$26$32$392021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
BVF INC/IL2.6MMORGAN STANLEY1.7MFMR LLC1.3MWoodline Partners LP640KOpaleye Management Inc.300KGW&K Investment Management, LLC232KStonepine Capital Management, LLC70KMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC205KHighVista Strategies LLC47KRubric Capital Management LP

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (2 analysts)$44.50670.0%
Last Year (6 analysts)$59.504270.0%
Current Price$41.71
Analyst Ratings
5
5
Buy: 5Hold: 5Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2024 Q37M-1M-8M$-0.44$-0.66 – $-0.323
2024 Q49M-1M-5M$-0.29$-0.47 – $-0.093
2025 Q17M-1M-4M$-0.24$-0.29 – $-0.174
2025 Q29M-1M-3M$-0.15$-0.45 – $0.073
2025 Q311M-2M-1M$-0.04$-0.50 – $0.423
2025 Q411M-2M-2M$-0.11$-0.26 – $0.044
2026 Q114M-2M3M$0.17$-0.14 – $0.442
2026 Q214M-2M3M$0.18$-0.13 – $0.422
2026 Q315M-2M5M$0.26$0.16 – $0.362
2026 Q416M-2M5M$0.30$0.26 – $0.331

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2012-2014)

Direct Pay$10.1M
Incentive & Other$7.4M
Total Compensation$17.5M
% of Revenue22.0%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$2.56M
2 txns · 2 insiders · 102,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$156K
1 txn · 1 insider · 4,330 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2025-12-04BUYHughes Owendirector, officer: Chief Executive Officer100,000$25.05$2.50M$2.56M
2025-09-22SELLBURNS THOMAS M.officer: SVP, Finance & CFO4,330$35.99$156K$1.08M
2025-06-30BUYSitko Bradleyofficer: Chief Investment Officer2,000$25.39$51K$179K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

14.8%retail+1.9pp
22.1%dark-0.5pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%80%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Geography (2026-Q1)
SWITZERLAND$6.7M+10%
UNITED STATES$5.6M-3%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

XOMA: The Asset Acquisition Shell Game and Related-Party Piggy Bank

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
8/10
Insolvency
4/10
Earnings Overstated
8/10
Hidden Liabilities
6/10
Legal
5/10
Audit Warnings
3/10
Hidden Upside
6/10
Contextually Acceptable
3/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In March 2026, XOMA reported preliminary 2025 cash receipts of $49M–$50M, a record high driven by commercial royalties from Vabysmo, Ojemda, and Miplyffa. The company also retired 648,048 shares (~$16M) in 2025, signaling aggressive capital return. Leerink Partners recently raised its price target to $50 (Feb 2026), citing a potential settlement windfall from ongoing litigation against Janssen Biotech regarding TREMFYA (Stock Titan, Investing.com).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear thesis rests on 'lumpy' revenue and high debt. Critics point to the recent Phase 3 failure of seralutinib (Gossamer Bio), which forced analysts to cut 2030 revenue estimates by 19%. Bears argue the company's reliance on third-party clinical success makes cash flows unpredictable and highly sensitive to individual trial setbacks (Public.com, Investing.com).

🚩 Red Flags

XOMA maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 123%, significantly above the industry average of 40%. Additionally, the company recorded a $14M non-cash impairment related to the Agenus agreement in late 2024 and is currently undergoing a CFO transition (Jeffrey Trigilio took over in Jan 2026), which can introduce execution risk during a period of high acquisition activity (Simply Wall St, XOMA Corp).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

XOMA faces competition from larger royalty aggregators like Royalty Pharma and Ligand, who may outbid them for high-quality late-stage assets. Furthermore, potential shifts in FDA reimbursement policies and drug pricing legislation under the current administration could compress royalty margins for the biotech partners XOMA relies upon (XOMA 2025 Stockholder Letter).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among institutional analysts remains a 'Strong Buy' (75% consensus), focusing on XOMA's role as a 'bespoke' capital provider for biotechs seeking non-dilutive funding. Management’s decision to buy back over $16M in stock suggests a high internal confidence in the current valuation and the terminal value of their 120+ asset portfolio (Minichart, Public.com).