PTGX
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops peptide-based therapeutic drugs to address hematology and blood disorders, and inflammatory and immunomodulatory diseases. It is developing rusfertide (PTG-300), an injectable hepcidin mimetic that is in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera and hereditary hemochromatosis, as well as for the treatment of other blood disorders; PN-943, an oral, alpha-4-beta-7 integrin- speci
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 75.0 | 18.8 | -- | 11.3 | -- | 7.5 | -3.8 | 326.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 18.0 | -46.8 | -- | -43.2 | -- | -37.8 | -1.1 | 319.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 15.0 | -45.0 | -- | -42.0 | -- | -37.5 | -1.1 | 356.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 12.0 | -45.6 | -- | -42.0 | -- | -38.4 | -1.0 | 394.4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 55.0 | 8.3 | -- | 2.8 | -- | -5.5 | -4.4 | 432.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 7.0 | -49.0 | -- | -45.5 | -- | -37.1 | -0.7 | 438.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 6.5 | -46.8 | -- | -43.6 | -- | -36.4 | -0.8 | 475.4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 6.0 | -45.0 | -- | -42.0 | -- | -36.0 | -0.9 | 511.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 56.4 | -3.2 | -3.7 | 3.8 | -48.9 | -49.2 | -0.2 | 547.8 | 9.8 | 70.5 | -2.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 7.4 | -50.0 | -50.4 | -44.4 | -37.0 | -35.5 | -1.5 | 567.4 | 10.3 | 63.6 | -54.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 4.7 | -39.0 | -46.4 | -39.3 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -0.1 | 576.1 | 10.8 | 63.8 | -45.4% | -- | 94.3x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 5.6 | -41.7 | -42.0 | -34.8 | -28.8 | -29.6 | -0.8 | 570.5 | 11.3 | 63.5 | -38.3% | -- | 90.5x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 28.3 | -19.1 | -19.3 | -11.7 | 125.4 | 124.8 | -0.6 | 574.4 | 11.4 | 63.0 | -16.6% | -- | 61.2x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 170.6 | 127.3 | 126.8 | 131.7 | -29.2 | -29.5 | -0.3 | 418.9 | 10.9 | 66.4 | 108.7% | -- | 9.0x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 4.7 | -40.8 | -41.5 | -33.2 | -27.9 | -28.6 | -0.8 | 468.7 | 10.9 | 61.8 | -51.2% | -- | 11.1x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 4.2 | -37.3 | -38.8 | -30.6 | 268.6 | 268.6 | -0.0 | 564.0 | 11.0 | 61.3 | -45.5% | -- | 7.5x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 255.0 | 206.5 | 206.3 | 207.3 | -27.4 | -27.7 | -0.2 | 322.6 | 0.5 | 63.6 | 232.6% | -- | 7.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 60.0 | 23.9 | 23.1 | 27.3 | 17.0 | 16.9 | -0.0 | 341.6 | 1.1 | 61.8 | 72.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 0.0 | -37.5 | -38.3 | -34.1 | -26.6 | -27.0 | -0.4 | 320.8 | 1.8 | 59.2 | -160.4% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.0 | -41.5 | -42.4 | -38.5 | -26.2 | -26.4 | -0.2 | 313.4 | 2.5 | 56.8 | -189.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 0.0 | -35.2 | -36.0 | -33.7 | -34.4 | -34.4 | -0.0 | 230.8 | 3.1 | 50.6 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 0.0 | -31.7 | -36.5 | -34.2 | -31.6 | -31.7 | -0.1 | 237.4 | 3.7 | 49.3 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 0.0 | -31.5 | -32.3 | -31.2 | -25.2 | -25.4 | -0.2 | 267.4 | 4.2 | 49.1 | -310.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.9 | -40.2 | -41.4 | -41.0 | -13.6 | -13.9 | -0.3 | 291.9 | 4.8 | 49.1 | -245.4% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 25.7 | -20.1 | -21.1 | -20.9 | -37.7 | -37.9 | -0.3 | 305.3 | 5.3 | 48.8 | -81.7% | -- | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10.91 | — | -464.4% | -123 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 15.9× |
| 2023 | 22.93 | +125.7% | -150.6% | -90 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 16.4× |
| 2024 | 38.60 | +624.0% | 58.9% | 256 | 9.0× | 12.7× | 9.9× | 6.3× |
| 2025 | 87.34 | -89.4% | -325.5% | -150 | n/m | 60.8× | n/m | 88.3× |
| TTM | 99.56 | -64.4% | -180.8% | -134 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 99.56 | +0.6% | -1.8% | -1 | 0.0× | n/m | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 99.56 | +61.1% | -1.0% | -1 | 0.0× | n/m | n/m | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Protagonist has promising late-stage assets in rusfertide and icotrokinra with strong clinical data, but the current $6.2B market cap prices in an extraordinary amount of success. The stock trades at 133x TTM sales (which are almost entirely one-time milestone payments), and the underlying business burns $35-45M per quarter. With ~$567M in cash providing adequate runway, insolvency risk is low, but the valuation requires near-perfect execution: successful FDA approvals, robust commercial launches, and continued partner commitment from JNJ and Takeda. Heavy insider selling, 15.7% short interest, massive SBC dilution (~$35M/year), and the widening quarterly losses all argue for caution. The JNJ acquisition rumors provide a soft floor, but if a deal doesn't materialize or comes at a significant discount to the current price, the stock faces meaningful downside. At ~$96/share, risk/reward is unfavorable for new positions given the binary clinical and regulatory outcomes ahead.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80.00 | $19.00/$23.50 | 52 | $0.05/$4.90 | 24 |
| $85.00 | $14.90/$19.00 | 96 | $0.30/$3.60 | 25 |
| $90.00 | $11.00/$15.50 | 63 | $1.20/$4.80 | 427 |
| $95.00 | $7.80/$11.20 | 72 | $2.60/$6.50 | 11 |
| $100.00 | $5.50/$8.00 | 64 | $5.00/$8.80 | 39 |
| $105.00 | $2.90/$6.30 | 80 | $7.50/$11.70 | 0 |
| $110.00 | $1.00/$4.30 | 158 | $11.00/$15.50 | 1 |
| $115.00 | $0.05/$3.30 | 537 | $15.00/$19.50 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 19.4% of float, sold 3.1%. 3 filers moved >1% of shares (3 buying, 0 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $1.03B | $46.61 | +$6.7M | +$4.5M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $669M | $21.64 | +$21.6M | +$25.5M | -0.6% | $15.27B |
| UBS Group AG | $546M | $77.11 | +$254M | +$509M | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| RTW INVESTMENTS, LP | $533M | $26.62 | +$0 | −$69.6M | -2.5% | $9.26B |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | $379M | $70.79 | +$45.1M | +$275M | -0.3% | $533.98B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $367M | $105.40 | +$367M | +$367M | — | $1.91T |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $329M | $22.78 | −$8.7M | +$43.2M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC | $305M | $79.08 | +$25.5M | +$303M | +1.2% | $209.29B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $296M | $105.40 | +$296M | +$296M | — | $4.04T |
| JOHNSON & JOHNSON | $258M | $23.68 | +$0 | +$0 | -8.9% | $652M |
| Invesco Ltd. | $228M | $68.39 | +$62.9M | +$138M | -0.2% | $652.04B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $176M | $47.37 | +$22.8M | +$25.9M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | $176M | $53.38 | +$27.9M | +$36.2M | -0.2% | $864.93B |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | $164M | $41.08 | +$44.8M | +$147M | -0.4% | $138.22B |
| Woodline Partners LP | $149M | $43.70 | +$569K | +$54.4M | -0.1% | $26.43B |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $137M | $51.20 | +$45.1M | +$86.8M | -0.1% | $1.36T |
| PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | $130M | $35.45 | −$12.6M | +$14.7M | -1.5% | $5.05B |
| JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC | $113M | $94.65 | +$78.1M | +$111M | +2.7% | $145.31B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $107M | $28.53 | +$14.7M | +$54.9M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | $105M | $34.13 | −$5.8M | +$5.7M | +7.4% | $1.64B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 38.1%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
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| AMLX | Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 3 | 74.67× |
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Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 4M | -2M | -44M | $-0.63 | $-0.69 – $-0.44 | 7 |
| 2025 Q4 | 9M | -6M | -40M | $-0.57 | $-0.78 – $-0.17 | 7 |
| 2026 Q1 | 12M | -8M | -35M | $-0.50 | $-0.62 – $-0.19 | 6 |
| 2026 Q2 | 208M | -142M | 171M | $2.43 | $-0.33 – $6.06 | 7 |
| 2026 Q3 | 183M | -125M | 128M | $1.81 | $-0.39 – $3.54 | 7 |
| 2026 Q4 | 66M | -45M | 6M | $0.09 | $0.02 – $0.15 | 3 |
| 2027 Q1 | 28M | -19M | -16M | $-0.23 | $-0.39 – $-0.04 | 3 |
| 2027 Q2 | 30M | -20M | -14M | $-0.20 | $-0.35 – $-0.03 | 2 |
| 2027 Q3 | 35M | -24M | -10M | $-0.14 | $-0.24 – $-0.02 | 2 |
| 2027 Q4 | 61M | -42M | 15M | $0.21 | $0.04 – $0.37 | 2 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | SELL | PATEL DINESH V PH D | director, officer: President and CEO | 75,000 | $100.12 | $7.51M | $52.41M |
| 2026-05-08 | SELL | Giraudo Bryan | director | 11,130 | $100.00 | $1.11M | $0 |
| 2026-05-07 | SELL | Giraudo Bryan | director | 48,000 | $100.12 | $4.81M | $601K |
| 2026-04-20 | SELL | Ali Asif | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 1,750 | $105.47 | $185K | $6.22M |
| 2026-03-26 | SELL | Ali Asif | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 24,765 | $104.24 | $2.58M | $6.33M |
| 2026-03-26 | SELL | MOLINA ARTURO MD | officer: Chief Medical Officer | 15,000 | $104.79 | $1.57M | $8.81M |
| 2026-03-26 | SELL | SELICK HAROLD E | director | 24,000 | $105.00 | $2.52M | $6.39M |
| 2026-03-25 | SELL | PATEL DINESH V PH D | director, officer: President and CEO | 54,641 | $101.00 | $5.52M | $53.02M |
| 2026-02-17 | SELL | Williams Lewis T | director | 18,000 | $82.42 | $1.48M | $645K |
| 2026-02-06 | SELL | Waddill William D. | director | 20,000 | $83.68 | $1.67M | $655K |
| 2026-01-27 | SELL | Ali Asif | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 46,203 | $83.13 | $3.84M | $5.01M |
| 2026-01-27 | SELL | MOLINA ARTURO MD | officer: Chief Medical Officer | 5,000 | $82.00 | $410K | $6.90M |
| 2026-01-27 | SELL | PATEL DINESH V PH D | director, officer: President and CEO | 4,068 | $83.19 | $338K | $47.79M |
| 2026-01-26 | SELL | MOLINA ARTURO MD | officer: Chief Medical Officer | 5,000 | $82.28 | $411K | $6.92M |
| 2026-01-26 | SELL | PATEL DINESH V PH D | director, officer: President and CEO | 24,890 | $84.03 | $2.09M | $48.27M |
| 2026-01-23 | SELL | PATEL DINESH V PH D | director, officer: President and CEO | 19,315 | $84.59 | $1.63M | $48.60M |
| 2026-01-23 | SELL | MOLINA ARTURO MD | officer: Chief Medical Officer | 13,151 | $82.42 | $1.08M | $6.93M |
| 2026-01-20 | SELL | Ali Asif | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 8,588 | $82.48 | $708K | $6.44M |
| 2026-01-20 | SELL | MOLINA ARTURO MD | officer: Chief Medical Officer | 9,514 | $82.48 | $785K | $8.02M |
| 2026-01-20 | SELL | PATEL DINESH V PH D | director, officer: President and CEO | 34,438 | $82.48 | $2.84M | $47.88M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Development Services | $4.7M | NEW |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS: One-Time Milestone Revenue Masks Structural Operating Losses and Strategic Profit-Share Exit
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In February 2026, Protagonist reported a significant Q4 2025 earnings miss, with an EPS loss of $0.69 compared to the $0.53 loss expected by analysts; quarterly revenue of $7.44M also fell well short of the $14.92M consensus (MarketBeat). Furthermore, reports emerged in late 2025 that a potential acquisition by Johnson & Johnson might proceed at a lower-than-anticipated valuation, causing the stock to retreat from its October peaks (Seeking Alpha). While the FDA accepted the NDA for rusfertide in March 2026, the company confirmed it expects to opt out of its 50:50 profit-sharing arrangement with Takeda, a strategic shift that moves more financial risk onto Protagonist (Stock Titan).
The bear case centers on an overextended valuation and fundamental performance gaps. Weiss Ratings downgraded PTGX to a 'Sell' in February 2026, citing deteriorating metrics (MarketBeat). Skeptics point to the company's widening net losses—which grew from $11.7M in Q1 2025 to $44.4M in Q4 2025—testing the narrative of a clear path to profitability (Sahm Capital). Additionally, with an RSI reaching 79.00 in early 2026, technical analysts argue the stock is severely overbought and due for a correction, especially given its 9.8x Price-to-Book ratio, which is nearly four times the biotech industry average of 2.6x (Simply Wall St).
Heavy insider selling is a primary concern; over the three months leading into March 2026, corporate insiders sold over 203,000 shares worth approximately $16.8M, with the CEO and directors significantly reducing their positions (MarketBeat). Another red flag is the disclosure of regulatory 'turbulence' risk, where potential U.S. government budget issues or FDA staffing shifts could delay the high-stakes review timelines for icotrokinra and rusfertide (TipRanks). Lastly, the stock's reliance on 'deal rumors' with J&J creates a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' risk if an official offer is underwhelming.
Protagonist faces stiff competition in the inflammatory and hematology markets. Bears argue that if safety concerns emerge in late-stage trials, strategic partners like Takeda or J&J could deprioritize Protagonist’s candidates in favor of internal assets or competing therapies (Public.com). There is also risk that icotrokinra may struggle to capture market share from established IL-23 and oral therapies if its clinical profile does not demonstrate overwhelming superiority upon launch (Simply Wall St).
Market sentiment among cautious investors has shifted toward skepticism regarding the 'profitability narrative' as quarterly losses deepen (Sahm Capital). While clinical data has been strong, there is underlying concern among analysts about the 'pricing risks' and market viability of these new peptide-based therapeutics in a crowded landscape, potentially leading to slower-than-expected physician adoption once commercialized (Public.com).