Stocks/OXLC

OXLC

Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
Financial Services·Asset Management
$9.98
$974M market cap
Claude Rating
2/10SHORT
Revenue
$449.0M
Free Cash Flow
$816.1M
Rev Growth
+10.4%
FCF Margin
181.8%
P/FCF
1.2x
EV/FCF
2.0x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
31.6x
Fair Value
$6.50
Upside
-34.9%

Oxford Lane Capital Corp. is a close ended fund launched and managed by Oxford Lane Management LLC. It invests in fixed income securities. The fund primarily invests in securitization vehicles which in turn invest in senior secured loans made to companies whose debt is rated below investment grade or is unrated. Oxford Lane Capital Corp was formed on June 9, 2010 and is domiciled in the United States.

2-Year Price History

$9.63-41.8%
$8.0$10$12$14$16$18volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q4180.036.0--9.0--270.0-0.01,220----------
Est2028-Q2185.033.3---9.3--286.8-0.0949.9----------
Est2027-Q4190.022.8---38.0--304.0-0.0663.1----------
Est2027-Q2200.030.0---30.0--340.0-0.0359.1----------
Act2026-Q2225.548.048.020.9447.2447.2-0.019.1710.687.04.9%1.8x50.1x
Act2025-Q4223.53.73.7-17.1368.9368.9-0.0295.4627.890.60.4%--30.4x
Act2025-Q2204.283.383.365.6485.9485.9-0.0206.5377.650.511.9%--7.0x
Act2024-Q4157.6136.3136.3119.9214.6214.6-0.043.0267.943.631.6%--4.9x
Act2024-Q2133.1131.7131.7115.3208.6208.6-0.027.1479.140.429.0%--8.9x
Act2023-Q4127.730.630.614.2126.5126.5-0.021.7194.631.514.5%----
Act2023-Q2114.2-170.1-170.1-185.4254.8254.8-0.046.0503.830.2-47.0%----
Act2022-Q4112.2-7.3-7.3-19.7283.1283.1-0.034.7445.528.9-1.8%--10.7x
Act2022-Q288.5155.3155.3145.6264.3264.3-0.068.4414.222.245.6%----

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude2/10SHORTFV: $6.50

OXLC is a structurally impaired CLO equity vehicle masquerading as a high-yield income investment. The 37% trailing dividend yield is a classic yield trap — funded by NAV destruction and relentless equity dilution (72% annual dilution). Over 5 years the stock has lost ~73% of its value despite paying enormous distributions, delivering catastrophic total returns. The Q4 FY2026 results confirm the thesis: $381M in unrealized depreciation in a single quarter, NAV collapsing 32% to $10.56, a 50% dividend cut, and a payout ratio exceeding 100%. While core NII remains above distributions, the GAAP reality is deeply negative, and the $344B loan refinancing wall through 2028 creates ongoing structural pressure on CLO equity valuations. Management's issuance of 8.25% preferred to retire 6.25% debt is a red flag signaling deteriorating access to capital markets. The April NAV recovery to $11.27 provides temporary relief but does not address the fundamental problem: this is a permanently capital-destroying vehicle that enriches its external manager through fees while systematically transferring wealth away from common shareholders.

Catalyst A sustained credit cycle downturn or recession would accelerate CLO equity losses and could force further dividend cuts or capital raises at deeply distressed levels, exposing the structural fragility. Conversely, a rapid tightening of credit spreads could provide a brief trading opportunity on the long side.
Risk If credit markets stabilize and CLO equity NAVs recover meaningfully, the high current yield could attract momentum buyers and squeeze the stock higher despite poor long-term fundamentals — a risk for shorts.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
2/10
Exp. Move
-8.0%

Latest Earnings Call

Transcript Summary

Oxford Lane Capital Corp. reported a challenging fourth fiscal quarter 2026, with NAV per share falling to $10.56 from $15.51. This 32% decline was attributed to $381.4 million in unrealized depreciation caused by a decline in the U.S. loan price index, sector-specific sell-offs in tech, and a technical lack of liquidity in the CLO equity market. Despite the NAV hit, core NII remained robust at $1.03 per share, and the company maintained its $0.20 monthly distribution. Management highlighted that early Q1 2027 (April 2026) saw a recovery in NAV to $11.27 as buyers returned to the market and bid-ask spreads tightened. The company extended its portfolio's weighted average reinvestment period to October 2029 through proactive refinancings and resets. Deployment was minimal at $0.50 million during the quarter, reflecting a cautious stance during market volatility. Looking forward, management intends to maintain a conservative leverage position and expects the $64 million in 'first-pay' CLO equity investments to contribute to future distributions. The tone was one of cautious optimism, focusing on the stabilization observed in the secondary market post-quarter-end.

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$9.98
Market Cap$974M
Enterprise Value$1.7B
P/S Ratio2.2x
P/FCF1.2x
EV/FCF2.0x
FCF Margin (TTM)181.8%
FCF Yield83.8%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution72.5%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$449.0M
Net Income$3.8M
Free Cash Flow$816.1M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+10.4%
EBITDA Margin11.5%
Net Margin0.8%
FCF Margin181.8%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC2.6%
WC Change % Rev-0.7%
Interest Coverage1.9x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$26.93
+169.9% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$3.0B
− Net Debt$691M
= Fair Equity$2.3B
Revenue Growth-6.4% → 1.0%
FCF Margin181.8% → 50.0%
Discount Rate17.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float3.8%
Short Shares3.6M
Days to Cover3.8
Change (vs Prior)-14.8%
Short % Float History
3.80%-6.50pp
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-13.1%
Forward FCF Margin165.1%
Forward EBITDA Margin13.5%
Forward P/FCF1.5x
Forward EV/FCF2.6x
Forward Int. Coverage0.9x
Model Risk Score9/10
Bankruptcy Odds8%
Est. Borrow Rate9.5%
Terminal EV/FCF5.0x
LT Growth0.0%
LT FCF Margin50.0%

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 12.3% of float, sold 3.6%. 6 filers moved >1% of shares (4 buying, 2 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+8.6% of float (net)
Bought 12.3% · Sold 3.6%
63 filers reported (last quarter: 112)

Ownership composition

Active
18.0%(+18.0% YoY)
83 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
1 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(+0.1% YoY)
2 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
13.7%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2024-122025-092025-122026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
MORGAN STANLEY$34.9M$11.92+$15.7M+$34.9M-0.3%$1.65T
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P.$31.2M$9.78+$31.2M+$31.2M+2.8%$5.10B
Polar Asset Management Partners Inc.$19.6M$9.78+$19.6M+$19.6M+2.2%$3.16B
Saba Capital Management, L.P.$18.1M$9.78+$18.1M+$18.1M-4.4%$3.09B
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$11.2M$10.33+$9.4M+$11.2M-0.4%$138.22B
Eagle Point Credit Management LLC$8.2M$11.74+$3.3M+$8.2M-0.9%$64.6M
Blackstone Group L.P.$6.6M$9.78+$6.6M+$6.6M+3.0%$24.20B
BARCLAYS PLC$5.3M$13.07−$10.9M+$5.3M-0.1%$279.69B
Border to Coast Pensions Partnership Ltd$4.3M$13.92+$0+$4.3M-0.5%$5.92B
ARES MANAGEMENT LLC$2.5M$12.93+$109K+$2.5M-9.6%$1.46B
Alpine Global Management, LLC$2.5M$10.11+$2.3M+$2.5M+2.7%$566M
Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors, Inc.$2.2M$13.55−$1.7M+$2.2M+0.1%$294M
Freestone Capital Holdings, LLC$2.2M$12.25+$782K+$2.2M+0.0%$3.19B
Virtus Investment Advisers, LLC$2.0M$12.67+$575K+$2.0M-0.3%$362M
BI Asset Management Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S$1.6M$12.94+$93K+$1.6M-0.4%$9.55B
DELPHI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.$1.4M$13.07+$0+$1.4M+1.4%$220M
UBS Group AG$1.3M$10.36+$1.1M+$1.3M-0.3%$562.11B
WEDBUSH SECURITIES INC$1.3M$13.88+$16K+$1.3M-0.4%$3.43B
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM$1.1M$13.06+$272K+$1.1M-0.6%$77.14B
Simplify Asset Management Inc.$978K$9.78+$978K+$978K-1.4%$6.44B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.09%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.15%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.67%
30 buyers · $0.10B in
Sellers (this Q)
-1.71%
23 sellers · $0.04B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-40.8%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+9.6%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-13.0%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+780.5%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-6.3%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-0.9%
Holder mid (any stock)
-2.6%
Holder rally (any stock)
-13.0%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

03.3M6.6M9.9M13.1M$9.78$11$12$13$142025-092025-122026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
MORGAN STANLEY3.6MKohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P.3.2MBARCLAYS PLC538KPolar Asset Management Partners Inc.2.0MSaba Capital Management, L.P.1.9MElliott Investment Management L.P.North Ground Capital25KCITADEL ADVISORS LLC1.1MEagle Point Credit Management LLC834KBulldog Investors, LLC

Corporate

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

51.0%retail+6.8pp
13.2%dark-2.4pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%60%25-0825-0925-1125-1226-0126-0326-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) reported disastrous Q4 FY2026 results in May 2026, characterized by a massive 31.9% sequential crash in Net Asset Value (NAV) per share, dropping from $15.51 to $10.56 (Investing.com, May 19, 2026). The company also missed earnings and revenue expectations significantly, reporting EPS of $1.03 against a $2.26 consensus and revenue of $94M versus the $244.27M expected (MarketBeat, May 21, 2026). Earlier in the year, the board slashed the monthly dividend by 50%, from $0.40 to $0.20 per share, effective April 2026, to preserve liquidity (AlphaStreet, Jan 30, 2026).

🐻 Bear Case

The core bear thesis centers on 'structural value destruction.' Critics argue OXLC is a classic yield trap where high distributions are funded by eroding the principal, evidenced by a 73% share price decline over the last five years (Investing.com, May 21, 2026). The fund faces a 'refinancing wall' of $344B in corporate loans maturing through 2028, which threatens the equity tranches OXLC holds. Furthermore, management's decision to issue 8.25% preferred stock to redeem 6.25% debt is viewed by skeptics as a desperate, high-cost move that increases interest expense while the portfolio's underlying yields are compressing by over 200 basis points.

🚩 Red Flags

A major red flag is the 104.9% dividend payout ratio, indicating the fund is returning more to shareholders than it earns (GuruFocus, May 19, 2026). The fund's GF Score™ of 20/100 signals severe financial weakness and a high risk of continued underperformance. Additionally, the fund recorded $381.4M in net unrealized depreciation in a single quarter, suggesting significant underlying asset deterioration that management's 'core NII' metrics may be masking (Investing.com, May 19, 2026).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

OXLC faces systemic pressure across the CLO equity universe, with peers like Eagle Point Credit (ECC) also cutting dividends, suggesting a sector-wide 'CLOpocalypse' rather than isolated volatility (Sahm Capital, April 29, 2026). The fund's competitive edge is eroding as high-yield alternatives and treasuries offer better risk-adjusted returns compared to the extreme volatility of junior CLO tranches. The fund is also hampered by its inability to issue new equity while trading at a steep discount to its rapidly falling NAV.

💬 Customer Sentiment

Investor sentiment has shifted from income-seeking loyalty to a sense of 'profound betrayal' following the 50% dividend cut (YouTube Stock Analysis, April 03, 2026). On retail forums like Reddit and Seeking Alpha, long-term holders describe the stock as a 'sinking ship' and a 'money pit,' with many advising against 'catching a falling knife' as the total return remains negative despite the high headline yield (Reddit, Jan 30, 2026).

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q4 • 2026-05-19

Operator: Hi, and thank you for standing by. This is Roy, and I will be your conference operator today. And at this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Oxford Lane Capital Corp. announces net asset value and selected financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over back to Jonathan Cohen. You may now begin.
Jonathan Cohen: Good morning, and welcome to the Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Fourth Fiscal Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I'm joined today by Saul Rosenthal, our President; Bruce Rubin, our Chief Financial Officer; and Joe Kupka, Managing Director. Bruce, could you open the call with a disclosure regarding forward-looking statements?
Bruce Rubin: Sure, Jonathan. Today's conference call is being recorded. An audio replay of the call will be available for 30 days. Replay information is included in our press release that was issued earlier this morning. Please note that this call is the property of Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Any unauthorized rebroadcast of this call in any form is strictly prohibited. At this point, please direct your attention to the customary disclosure in this morning's press release regarding forward-looking information. Today's conference call includes forward-looking statements and projections that reflect the company's current views with respect to, among other things, future events and financial performance. We ask you to refer to our most recent filings with the SEC for important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these projections. We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements unless required to do so by law. During this call, we will use terms defined in the earnings release and also refer to non-GAAP measures. For definitions and reconciliations to GAAP, please refer to our earnings release posted on our website at www.oxfordlanecapital.com. With that, I'll turn the presentation back to Jonathan.
Jonathan Cohen: Thanks, Bruce. On March 31, 2026, our net asset value per share stood at $10.56 compared to a net asset value per share of $15.51 as of the prior quarter. As of April 30, 2026, the midpoint of the range of our estimated net asset values per share was $11.27. For the quarter ended March, we recorded GAAP total investment income of approximately $94 million, representing a decrease of approximately $23.8 million from the prior quarter. The quarter's GAAP total investment income consisted of approximately $90.8 million from our CLO equity and CLO warehouse investments and approximately $3.1 million from our CLO debt investments and from other income. Oxford Lane recorded GAAP net investment income of approximately $54.5 million or $0.56 per share for the quarter ended March compared to approximately $71.8 million or $0.74 per share for the quarter ended December 31. Our core net investment income was approximately $100.7 million or $1.03 per share for the quarter ended March 31 compared with approximately $108.9 million or $1.12 per share for the quarter ended December 31. As of the end of March, we held approximately $64 million in newly issued or newly acquired CLO equity investments that had not yet made initial distributions to Oxford Lane. For the quarter ended March, we recorded net unrealized depreciation on investments of approximately $381.4 million and net realized losses of approximately $38.4 million. We had a net decrease in net assets resulting from operations of approximately $365.3 million or $3.74 per share for the fourth fiscal quarter. As of March 31, the following metrics applied. We note that none of these metrics necessarily represented a total return to shareholders. The weighted average effective yield of our CLO equity investments at current cost was 11.7%, down from 13.8% as of December. The weighted average cash distribution yield of our CLO equity investments at current cost was 16.7%, down from 19% as of December 31. We note that the cash distribution yields calculated on our CLO equity investments are based on the cash distributions which we received or which we were entitled to receive at each respective period end. During the quarter ended March, we made additional CLO investments of approximately $500,000, and we received approximately $82.9 million from sales and from repayments. On May 14, our Board of Directors declared monthly common stock distributions of $0.20 per share for each of the months ending July, August and September of 2026. With that, I will now turn the call over to Joe Kupka. Joe?
Joseph Kupka: Thanks, Jonathan. During the quarter ended March 31, 2026, U.S. loan market performance declined versus the prior quarter. U.S. loan price index decreased from 96.64% as of December 31, 2025, to 94.63% as of March 31. The decrease in U.S. loan prices led to an approximate 17-point decrease in median U.S. CLO equity net asset values. Additionally, we observed median weighted average spreads across loan pools within CLO portfolios decreased to 304 basis points compared to 311 basis points last quarter. The 12-month trailing default rate for the loan index increased to 1.4% by principal amount at the end of the quarter from 1.2% at the end of December. We note that out-of-court restructurings, exchanges and subpar buybacks, which are not captured in the cited default rate remain elevated. CLO new issuance for the quarter totaled approximately $47 billion, reflecting an approximate $8 billion decrease from the previous quarter. Additionally, the U.S. CLO market saw approximately $56 billion in reset and refinancing activity in Q1 2026 compared to approximately $74 billion in the previous quarter. Oxford Lane remained active this quarter, trading over $75 million in CLO equity and CLO warehouses. During the quarter, we also led or participated in numerous resets or refinancings, taking advantage of tightening liability spreads to lower the cost of funding and lengthen the weighted average reinvestment period of Oxford Lane's CLO equity portfolio from August 2029 to October 2029. We continue to evaluate existing investments for opportunities to improve the economics of our CLO equity positions. In the current market environment, we intend to continue to utilize our opportunistic and unconstrained CLO investment strategy across U.S. CLO equity, debt and warehouses as we look to maximize our long-term total return. And as a permanent capital vehicle, we have historically been able to take a longer-term view towards our investment strategy. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Jonathan.
Jonathan Cohen: Thanks, Joe. Additional information about Oxford Lane's fourth fiscal quarter financial performance has been uploaded to our website at oxfordlanecapital.com. With that, operator, we're happy to poll for any questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Erik Zwick with Lucid Capital Markets.
Erik Zwick: Hoping, Jonathan, to start just on a question in terms of kind of understanding the primary drivers of the unrealized depreciation in 1Q. I mean, it seems like for most of '25, it was the tightening spread, but it seems like it may have been a little bit different just more due to kind of reduced activity in the secondary market in 1Q. Is the perception right there? And then kind of curious if that's persisting here into 2Q at this point.
Joseph Kupka: Erik, yes. So I think there were a few different factors. As you said, the loan compression on the assets continued. So not quite to the extent we saw in 2025, but we did see that continuing and CLOs did lose additional spread in Q1. Additionally, we saw the loan market sell off driven by the decrease in tech and software names. And finally, we did see a pullback in buyers for CLO equity. So bid-ask spreads really blew out, and there were just a lack of buyers. So that definitely hurt the mark-to-market on our positions as well.
Unknown Analyst: Joe, would you say -- and just as a follow-up to Erik's question, would you say that for this most recent quarter, technical factors, bid-ask spreads and flows of funds or more fundamental factors such as continued U.S. syndicated corporate loan spread compression, which of those 2 were, in your estimation, the more relevant?
Joseph Kupka: I would say it was a combination of those. Definitely, the NAV selloff hurt substantially, but especially towards the end of the quarter when there were just a definite lack of buyers that hurt as well. Since quarter end, we've definitely seen a pause for the time being on continued loan compression, but we are now seeing loans above par approach 40% to 50%. So there could be additional loan repricings. But we've definitely seen a healthier market. April was a very strong month for CLO equity. We've seen a lot of buyers step back in. So things at least quarter-to-date have stabilized for sure.
Erik Zwick: That's definitely helpful. And the estimated April NAV that you provided this morning would suggest just that, and it sounds like it's continued through May. So that's good to hear. And in terms of the deployment into new investments in the quarter, $500,000 is relatively light compared to historicals. And I guess some of that reflects, one, just kind of the market dynamics that you talked about, there just wasn't a whole lot out there, particularly for sale. But I guess as things have potentially improved here in the second calendar quarter? Are you seeing more opportunities to put capital to work at this point?
Jonathan Cohen: We are, Erik. Certainly, in the secondary market, liquidity has improved, bid-ask spreads seem to have tightened fairly meaningfully and trading activity just overall has stepped up pretty dramatically compared to a month or 2 ago. So the answer from our perspective is certainly yes.
Erik Zwick: That's good to hear. And then just in terms of kind of given the unrealized depreciation, hopefully, that continues to unwind and you see some recovery there. But just given that we don't know exactly how sustained this improvement could be, how are you thinking about leverage in the portfolio today?
Jonathan Cohen: I think -- I'm thinking from a -- I think we're all thinking, Erik, from a fairly conservative perspective. We went into this most recent downturn at a level of overall leverage that I think has proven to be reasonably manageable. And in terms of a percentage of leverage or percentage of debt to equity on our balance sheet, we certainly would be not looking to increase that through the issuance of any additional debt that wasn't used to repay existing debt.
Erik Zwick: Got you. That's helpful. And last one for me, Jonathan, I missed I couldn't type fast enough. You mentioned the dollar amount of CLO investments that have yet to make their initial distributions. Could you just provide that for me once again?
Jonathan Cohen: Sure. It was $64 million as of March 31.
Operator: I show no further questions. And with that, I will turn the call back over to Jonathan Cohen, CEO.
Jonathan Cohen: We would like to thank very much everybody who participated in this call and everyone who's listening on the replay. We look forward to speaking to you again soon. Thanks very much.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. .