LeonaBio, Inc., clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing small molecules to restore neuronal health and slow neurodegradation. Its product pipeline includes ATH-1105 for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, which is in phase 1 clinical trial; ATH-1020 for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, which is phase 1 clinical trial, as well as early compounds which is in preclinical phase. The company was formerly known as Athira Pharma, Inc. and changed its name
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 67.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 67.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 67.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 67.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 67.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 67.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 67.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | -17.2 | -17.2 | -33.0 | -20.9 | -20.9 | -0.0 | 67.7 | 0.7 | 19.0 | -296.9% | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 67.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -78.6 | -78.6 | -82.9 | -19.4 | -19.4 | -0.0 | 88.3 | 0.8 | 4.3 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 0.0 | -6.5 | -6.9 | -6.6 | -4.7 | -4.7 | -0.0 | 25.2 | 0.9 | 3.9 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.0 | -6.8 | -7.3 | -7.0 | -7.0 | -7.0 | -0.0 | 29.8 | 1.0 | 3.9 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 0.0 | -8.9 | -9.5 | -9.1 | -14.7 | -14.7 | -0.0 | 36.7 | 1.1 | 3.9 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 0.0 | -15.3 | -15.6 | -15.0 | -26.0 | -26.0 | -0.0 | 51.3 | 1.2 | 3.9 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 0.0 | -25.3 | -29.6 | -28.7 | -23.0 | -23.0 | -0.0 | 68.9 | 1.3 | 3.9 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.0 | -27.8 | -28.0 | -26.9 | -22.3 | -22.4 | -0.0 | 91.8 | 1.4 | 3.8 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.0 | -27.5 | -27.7 | -26.3 | -25.8 | -25.8 | -0.0 | 122.1 | 1.5 | 3.8 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 0.0 | -30.4 | -29.0 | -27.3 | -26.3 | -26.3 | -0.0 | 147.4 | 1.6 | 3.8 | <-999% | -15.6x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 0.0 | -34.8 | -35.0 | -33.0 | -24.0 | -24.0 | -0.0 | 173.0 | 1.7 | 3.8 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.0 | -31.4 | -31.6 | -29.6 | -24.3 | -24.3 | -0.0 | 186.1 | 1.8 | 3.8 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 0.0 | -29.4 | -29.8 | -27.8 | -26.2 | -26.4 | -0.2 | 186.0 | 1.8 | 3.8 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 0.0 | -21.5 | -32.9 | -30.1 | -15.7 | -15.7 | -0.0 | 200.3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | -443.8% | -124.0x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 0.0 | -20.9 | -24.1 | -20.2 | -21.6 | -21.9 | -0.2 | 221.0 | 2.0 | 3.8 | -167.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.0 | -24.6 | -23.6 | -24.3 | -18.6 | -18.7 | -0.2 | 252.4 | 2.1 | 3.8 | -122.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 0.0 | -21.0 | -23.4 | -21.0 | -16.6 | -17.3 | -0.7 | 263.5 | 1.9 | 3.8 | -93.6% | -10499.5x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 31.70 | — | — | -88 | — | — | n/m | — |
| 2023 | 24.30 | — | — | -126 | — | — | n/m | — |
| 2024 | 5.87 | — | — | -96 | — | — | n/m | — |
| 2025 | 7.57 | — | — | -101 | — | — | n/m | — |
| TTM | 9.69 | — | — | -109 | — | — | 0.0× | — |
| 2026E | 9.69 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
LeonaBio is a deeply speculative pre-revenue clinical-stage biotech that recently pivoted from failed neuroscience programs to oncology via a licensed Phase 3-ready breast cancer asset. While the lasofoxifene data (13-month median PFS in Phase 2) is encouraging, the company faces a crowded competitive landscape against established oral SERDs, has a critical cash runway of under 6 months (pre-financing tranche), and is entirely dependent on a complex $236M financing deal to survive. The $27M market cap reflects extreme skepticism. A traditional DCF is meaningless here — this is a binary clinical/financing outcome. The pivot represents a Hail Mary after burning through ~$230M in cash on failed Alzheimer's programs. Management credibility is impaired by the prior failures and significant executive compensation ($34.4M over 3 years) while destroying shareholder value. The financing deal, if fully funded, could provide substantial upside, but tranche/milestone structures introduce significant execution risk. At current levels, risk/reward is poor on a probability-weighted basis given the competitive landscape, dilution risk, and execution challenges.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | $19.1M | $6.57 | +$0 | +$19.1M | -1.4% | $5.05B |
| ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | $7.5M | $8.81 | +$3.4M | +$7.5M | +8.3% | $1.64B |
| ACORN CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC | $6.5M | $8.14 | +$1.4M | +$6.5M | +5.3% | $352M |
| NEA Management Company, LLC | $4.8M | $7.57 | +$0 | +$4.8M | -3.5% | $1.76B |
| Commodore Capital LP | $4.8M | $7.57 | +$0 | +$4.8M | -0.1% | $1.73B |
| TCG Crossover Management, LLC | $4.7M | $7.57 | +$0 | +$4.7M | +4.6% | $3.50B |
| Kalehua Capital Management LLC | $4.0M | $7.57 | +$0 | +$4.0M | -8.7% | $141M |
| Spruce Street Capital LP | $3.8M | $7.57 | +$0 | +$3.8M | +53.8% | $416M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $2.0M | $10.28 | +$2.0M | +$2.0M | — | $4.04T |
| Seven Fleet Capital Management LP | $1.7M | $8.17 | +$378K | +$1.7M | +44.7% | $315M |
| Simplify Asset Management Inc. | $1.5M | $4.14 | +$0 | +$1.5M | -1.5% | $6.44B |
| Propel Bio Management, LLC | $1.5M | $4.14 | +$0 | +$1.5M | -3.0% | $159M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $826K | $7.93 | +$508K | +$826K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $660K | $5.20 | −$112K | +$660K | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $576K | $6.16 | +$189K | +$576K | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $412K | $10.28 | +$412K | +$412K | — | $395.83B |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $335K | $4.16 | −$3K | +$335K | -0.1% | $1.36T |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $326K | $7.57 | −$3.0M | +$326K | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| Laird Norton Wetherby Trust Company, LLC | $224K | $5.98 | +$0 | +$224K | -0.6% | $4.58B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $168K | $6.24 | +$58K | +$168K | -0.2% | $2.89T |
Trading behavior
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 64.6%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -4M | $-1.06 | $-1.06 – $-1.06 | 1 |
| 2025 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -6M | $-1.35 | $-2.30 – $-0.58 | 3 |
| 2026 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -43M | $-2.28 | $-3.73 – $-0.83 | 2 |
| 2026 Q2 | 0M | 0M | -14M | $-0.73 | $-1.17 – $-0.29 | 2 |
| 2026 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -15M | $-0.78 | $-1.37 – $-0.19 | 2 |
| 2026 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -9M | $-0.47 | $-0.47 – $-0.47 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -13M | $-0.70 | $-0.70 – $-0.70 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 0M | 0M | -14M | $-0.73 | $-0.73 – $-0.73 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -12M | $-0.62 | $-0.62 – $-0.62 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -12M | $-0.63 | $-0.63 – $-0.63 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | SELL | CHURCH KEVIN | officer: CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER | 1,359 | $5.37 | $7K | $135K |
| 2026-03-04 | SELL | Litton Mark James | director, officer: PRESIDENT and CEO | 5,156 | $5.37 | $28K | $311K |
| 2026-03-04 | SELL | Renninger Robert | officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | 906 | $5.37 | $5K | $85K |
| 2026-03-04 | SELL | San Martin Javier | officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER | 1,720 | $5.37 | $9K | $85K |
| 2026-03-04 | SELL | Worthington Mark | officer: GENERAL COUNSEL and CCO | 1,328 | $5.37 | $7K | $99K |
| 2026-01-02 | SELL | CHURCH KEVIN | officer: CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER | 876 | $6.88 | $6K | $142K |
| 2026-01-02 | SELL | Litton Mark James | director, officer: President and CEO | 2,586 | $6.88 | $18K | $281K |
| 2026-01-02 | SELL | Renninger Robert | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 297 | $6.88 | $2K | $88K |
| 2026-01-02 | SELL | San Martin Javier | officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER | 1,644 | $6.88 | $11K | $70K |
| 2026-01-02 | SELL | Worthington Mark | officer: General Counsel and CCO | 876 | $6.88 | $6K | $96K |
| 2025-07-01 | SELL | CHURCH KEVIN | officer: CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER | 8,526 | $0.29 | $3K | $50K |
| 2025-07-01 | SELL | Litton Mark James | director, officer: President and CEO | 25,123 | $0.29 | $7K | $96K |
| 2025-07-01 | SELL | Renninger Robert | officer: SVP, Finance and Accounting | 2,897 | $0.29 | $850 | $32K |
| 2025-07-01 | SELL | San Martin Javier | officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER | 10,842 | $0.29 | $3K | $21K |
| 2025-07-01 | SELL | Worthington Mark | officer: General Counsel and CCO | 8,526 | $0.29 | $3K | $33K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
LeonaBio, Inc.: A Dilution Trap with Obstructed Capital Access
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In January 2026, the company rebranded from Athira Pharma to LeonaBio (LONA). A major catalyst occurred on December 18, 2025, when the company secured an exclusive license for lasofoxifene, a Phase 3-ready candidate for metastatic breast cancer, alongside a financing deal worth up to $236 million to fund clinical and regulatory milestones (Source: LeonaBio Press Release, Jan 2026).
The bear thesis typically rests on the company's historical failures in Alzheimer’s research (under its former name, Athira) and a significant cash burn rate, with a trailing 12-month net loss of approximately $96.9 million. Short sellers likely view the recent pivot as a high-risk attempt to salvage value from a depleting balance sheet (Source: StockTitan, Feb 2026; Investing.com).
Despite recent financing, the company remains pre-revenue with a negative EPS of -$2.52 (TTM). Recent insider activity includes a small sale of shares by the CFO in March 2026. Additionally, the quantitative 'Zen Rating' model still flags the stock as a 'Sell' based on fundamental volatility and historical performance (Source: WallStreetZen, March 2026; AAII).
LeonaBio's lead candidate, lasofoxifene, enters a crowded oncology market. It must compete against established standards of care like fulvestrant and newer oral SERDs (selective estrogen receptor degraders). In the neurodegeneration space, ATH-1105 faces stiff competition from major biotech firms targeting ALS and Alzheimer's with more advanced clinical data (Source: LeonaBio Corporate Presentation, 2026).
While traditional 'customer' sentiment is limited for a clinical-stage firm, investigator and patient sentiment is bolstered by ELAINE-2 Phase 2 data, which showed a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 13 months—one of the longest observed in the 2L/3L metastatic breast cancer setting. Analysts have responded with optimism, notably Mizuho upgrading the stock to 'Outperform' with a $10 target (Source: Benzinga, Feb 2026; LeonaBio IR).