Stocks/LOAN

LOAN

Manhattan Bridge Capital, Inc.
Real Estate·REIT - Mortgage
$4.22
$48M market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$8.0M
Free Cash Flow
$4.9M
Rev Growth
+13.5%
FCF Margin
61.7%
P/FCF
9.8x
EV/FCF
13.8x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
18.2x
Fair Value
$3.20
Upside
-24.2%

Manhattan Bridge Capital, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates, services, and manages a portfolio of first mortgage loans in the United States. It offers short-term, secured, and non-banking loans to real estate investors to fund their acquisition, renovation, rehabilitation, or enhancement of properties in the New York metropolitan area, including New Jersey and Connecticut, and in Florida. The company's loans are primarily secured by collateral consisting of real estate and accompan

2-Year Price History

$4.18-5.0%
$4.2$4.4$4.6$4.8$5.0$5.2$5.4volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q31.91.0--1.1--1.0-0.07.5----------
Est2027-Q21.80.9--1.0--0.9-0.06.5----------
Est2027-Q11.70.9--1.0--0.8-0.05.6----------
Est2026-Q41.81.0--1.0--0.9-0.04.7----------
Est2026-Q31.80.9--1.0--0.9-0.03.8----------
Est2026-Q21.70.9--0.9--0.8-0.02.9----------
Est2026-Q11.70.9--1.0--0.9-0.02.1----------
Act2026-Q12.11.31.31.31.31.3-0.00.219.711.416.7%3.5x15.1x
Est2025-Q41.91.1--1.2--1.1-0.01.2----------
Act2025-Q42.01.11.11.11.01.0-0.0204.917.811.415.6%3.0x--
Act2025-Q32.01.21.61.21.41.4-0.00.215.311.424.3%2.9x64.1x
Act2025-Q21.90.01.41.41.21.2-0.00.222.711.416.4%0.0x--
Act2025-Q11.80.01.41.41.21.2-0.00.221.011.416.8%0.0x42.2x
Act2024-Q41.90.0-0.01.30.90.9-0.00.222.611.4-0.1%--20.8x
Act2024-Q31.80.01.41.41.61.6-0.00.225.311.415.0%0.0x13.7x
Act2024-Q22.42.02.01.41.41.4-0.00.123.411.422.6%3.3x10.0x
Act2024-Q12.62.22.21.51.11.1-0.00.129.511.420.7%3.1x10.2x
Act2023-Q42.62.02.01.41.5-3.6-5.10.131.211.518.5%3.0x14.2x
Act2023-Q31.82.11.41.51.41.4-0.00.127.511.514.4%3.4x14.6x
Act2023-Q21.82.01.41.41.41.4-0.00.326.711.514.3%3.4x15.7x
Act2023-Q11.80.00.01.31.31.3-0.00.128.611.50.0%0.0x25.8x
Act2022-Q41.61.81.80.61.21.2-0.00.131.011.516.5%2.9x18.3x
Act2022-Q31.61.71.70.71.21.2-0.00.129.411.516.2%3.5x--
Act2022-Q21.70.00.01.41.41.4-0.00.125.311.50.0%0.0x--
Act2022-Q11.81.81.81.11.51.5-0.00.224.411.518.3%5.3x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20224.1278.2%518.3×18.8×17.5×9.8×
20234.20+17.8%76.2%614.2×164.2×10.0×6.9×
20245.14+8.6%48.2%420.8×17.2×11.5×7.5×
20254.65-10.8%30.4%212.4×8.2×
TTM4.22+0.8%45.5%40.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E4.22-12.1%0.5%00.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $3.20

Manhattan Bridge Capital is a micro-cap hard money lender with a deteriorating fundamental profile. Revenue is declining as higher rates suppress bridge loan demand, while the company's cost of funding (SOFR + spread) compresses net interest margins. The loan portfolio contains alarming aged assets (2016 vintage 'short-term' loans) with zero loss provisions, suggesting materially overstated book value. The critical near-term risk is a concentrated $38.5M debt maturity wall in early-mid 2026 that could be existential if refinancing terms deteriorate. Executive compensation at ~14% of revenue is egregious for a 6-person company. The 100% dividend payout ratio with a recent dividend cut signals earnings stress. While the ~10% dividend yield and low P/FCF (10.6x) appear attractive, these metrics are misleading given the zombie loan portfolio, refinancing risk, and structural competitive disadvantage versus larger private credit platforms. The 16% short interest reflects justified skepticism.

Catalyst Successful refinancing of the 2026 credit facility and senior notes at reasonable terms would remove the existential risk and could trigger a relief rally. Alternatively, a meaningful new loan origination cycle driven by rate cuts could stabilize revenue.
Risk Failure to refinance the $32.5M credit facility (Feb 2026) and $6M senior notes (Apr 2026) on acceptable terms, which could force asset fire sales or insolvency given near-zero cash reserves.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
3/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$4.22
Market Cap$48M
Enterprise Value$68M
P/S Ratio6.1x
P/FCF9.8x
EV/FCF13.8x
FCF Margin (TTM)61.7%
FCF Yield10.2%
Dividend Yield (TTM)10.7%
Annual Dilution-0.1%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$8.0M
Net Income$5.0M
Free Cash Flow$4.9M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+13.5%
EBITDA Margin45.5%
Net Margin63.0%
FCF Margin61.7%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.1%
ROIC18.3%
WC Change % Rev777.3%
Interest Coverage2.2x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$0.45
-89.4% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$25M
− Net Debt$20M
= Fair Equity$5M
Revenue Growth1.4% → 1.0%
FCF Margin61.7% → 50.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF7.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float0.1%
Short Shares0.0M
Days to Cover1.0
Change (vs Prior)-58.4%
Short % Float History
0.10%-0.20pp
0.1%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.3%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)--
Put IV (ATM)50%
ATM Spread--
Call $OI (near money)$10K
Put $OI (near money)$400
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$5.0
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$2.50$1.35/$2.100--/$0.100
$5.00--/$0.25171$0.50/$1.250
$7.50--/$0.352$2.70/$3.900
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-10.8%
Forward FCF Margin50.9%
Forward EBITDA Margin52.3%
Forward P/FCF13.4x
Forward EV/FCF18.8x
Forward Int. Coverage2.3x
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds18%
Est. Borrow Rate9.5%
Terminal EV/FCF7.0x
LT Growth1.0%
LT FCF Margin50.0%

Employees

Headcount6
Revenue / Employee$1,326,668
Gross Profit / Employee$1,202,666
2022: 5 → 2023: 5 → 2024: 6 → 2025: 100 (171% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 11.9% of float, sold 9.4%. 6 filers moved >1% of shares (3 buying, 3 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+2.5% of float (net)
Bought 11.9% · Sold 9.4%
44 filers reported (last quarter: 47)

Ownership composition

Active
19.1%(-1.9% YoY)
39 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
5.6%(-1.4% YoY)
7 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(+0.1% YoY)
2 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
23.4%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
PANORAMIC INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC$2.0M$4.35+$1.9M+$2.0M+2.2%$359M
Melia Wealth LLC$2.0M$4.67−$28K+$357K-3.5%$207M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$1.5M$4.35+$1.5M+$1.5M$4.04T
SHUFRO ROSE & CO LLC$969K$4.30+$0+$9K-0.2%$1.47B
Frazier Financial Advisors, LLC$907K$4.38+$540K+$907K-1.7%$170M
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$872K$4.47+$62K+$205K+1.2%$63.91B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$560K$4.26+$60K+$79K+2.3%$1.61T
LPL Financial LLC$290K$5.15+$23K+$155K-0.2%$372.65B
CARY STREET PARTNERS FINANCIAL LLC$275K$4.39+$1.0M+$275K+0.3%$4.04B
MERCER GLOBAL ADVISORS INC /ADV$220K$5.10−$597K+$10K-0.0%$63.93B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$204K$4.35+$199K+$204K$395.83B
MORGAN STANLEY$179K$4.42+$114K+$107K-0.3%$1.65T
Apella Capital, LLC$175K$4.48−$15K+$175K-0.0%$6.61B
Mariner, LLC$164K$5.13+$0+$164K-0.1%$85.47B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$163K$4.87+$20K−$37K-0.2%$5.69T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$144K$4.96+$0+$0-0.2%$2.89T
INTERNATIONAL ASSETS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC$124K$4.35−$10K+$124K-5.7%$1.40B
BEESE FULMER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC.$122K$4.65−$961K+$122K-0.0%$1.56B
MONETA GROUP INVESTMENT ADVISORS LLC$122K$4.88−$17K−$404K-0.5%$12.64B
Kestra Advisory Services, LLC$115K$4.92+$0+$47K-0.4%$26.28B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.46%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.46%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+1.16%
17 buyers · $0.00B in
Sellers (this Q)
-1.06%
17 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 85% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+28.8%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-8.1%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-15.2%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+22.3%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-2.0%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-1.1%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.6%
Holder rally (any stock)
-2.1%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

0939K1.9M2.8M3.8M$3.87$4.26$4.64$5.03$5.422021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Soltis Investment Advisors LLCMelia Wealth LLC441KBARD ASSOCIATES INC232Intelligence Driven Advisers, LLCPANORAMIC INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC441KHardy Reed LLCWorthPointe, LLCSHUFRO ROSE & CO LLC218KMERCER GLOBAL ADVISORS INC /ADV220KRENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC196K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
2
1
Buy: 2Hold: 1Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q32M2M1M$0.12$0.12 – $0.121
2025 Q42M2M1M$0.10$0.10 – $0.101
2026 Q12M1M1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111
2026 Q22M1M1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111
2026 Q32M1M1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111
2026 Q42M1M1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111
2027 Q12M1M1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111
2027 Q22M1M1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111
2027 Q32M1M1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111
2027 Q42M1M1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$3.3M
Incentive & Other$0.3M
Total Compensation$3.6M
% of Revenue14.4%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$8K
1 txn · 1 insider · 1,757 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$19K
1 txn · 1 insider · 4,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2025-11-19BUYBentovim Lyron Ldirector1,757$4.52$8K$186K
2025-11-17BUYRAN ASSAFdirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO4,000$4.65$19K$5.71M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

49.8%retail+0.3pp
7.3%dark+0.5pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%80%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Manhattan Bridge Capital, Inc.: The 'Evergreen' Loan Trap

Overall Risk
5/10
Fraud
6/10
Dilution
3/10
Insolvency
4/10
Earnings Overstated
6/10
Hidden Liabilities
2/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
2/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

On February 10, 2026, Manhattan Bridge Capital declared a quarterly dividend of $0.11 per share, payable on April 15, 2026. While this was a slight reduction from the previous $0.115, it maintains a double-digit yield of approximately 10.1%. Additionally, institutional investors including Vanguard, Mercer Global Advisors, and Moneta Group have recently increased their stakes, with Mercer adding over 209,000 shares in late 2025/early 2026 (Sources: MarketBeat, Nasdaq, StockTitan).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear thesis centers on declining profitability and a tightening real estate market in New York. The company reported a 14.1% YoY decrease in net income for Q3 2025 ($1.2M vs $1.4M) and a 12% drop in total revenue due to a significant slowdown in new loan originations. Furthermore, technical indicators are overwhelmingly negative, with the stock trading near its 52-week low ($4.25) and holding sell signals across short- and long-term moving averages (Sources: Intellectia.AI, Investing.com).

🚩 Red Flags

A critical red flag is the 100% dividend payout ratio, which leaves zero margin for further earnings erosion. The short interest ratio has also climbed to 16.18% as of late February 2026, suggesting high conviction among short sellers. Additionally, the company has missed analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters, including an 8.3% surprise miss in October 2025 (Sources: MarketBeat, Investing.com, Intellectia.AI).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

LOAN faces intense pressure in the specialty finance and 'hard money' lending sector. Higher prevailing interest rates have dampened borrower demand for short-term bridge loans. Larger private credit funds with lower costs of capital and broader geographic reach (outside of LOAN's New York/Florida focus) are squeezing margins on the high-quality collateral Manhattan Bridge typically targets (Source: Intellectia.AI).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Retail sentiment is largely bearish given the 14% price decline over the last quarter; however, contrarian 'smart money' sentiment is emerging. Management remains bullish, with CEO Assaf Ran citing the company's low leverage and authorizing a share buyback of 100,000 common shares. Some analysts highlight the stock as 'oversold' with an RSI below 30, suggesting a potential bounce-back if Q4 2025 earnings (expected March 6-11, 2026) stabilize (Sources: Intellectia.AI, MarketBeat).