LOAN
Manhattan Bridge Capital, Inc.Manhattan Bridge Capital, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates, services, and manages a portfolio of first mortgage loans in the United States. It offers short-term, secured, and non-banking loans to real estate investors to fund their acquisition, renovation, rehabilitation, or enhancement of properties in the New York metropolitan area, including New Jersey and Connecticut, and in Florida. The company's loans are primarily secured by collateral consisting of real estate and accompan
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | -- | 1.1 | -- | 1.0 | -0.0 | 7.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | -- | 1.0 | -- | 0.9 | -0.0 | 6.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | -- | 1.0 | -- | 0.8 | -0.0 | 5.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | -- | 1.0 | -- | 0.9 | -0.0 | 4.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | -- | 1.0 | -- | 0.9 | -0.0 | 3.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | -- | 0.9 | -- | 0.8 | -0.0 | 2.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | -- | 1.0 | -- | 0.9 | -0.0 | 2.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 19.7 | 11.4 | 16.7% | 3.5x | 15.1x |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | -- | 1.2 | -- | 1.1 | -0.0 | 1.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -0.0 | 204.9 | 17.8 | 11.4 | 15.6% | 3.0x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 15.3 | 11.4 | 24.3% | 2.9x | 64.1x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 22.7 | 11.4 | 16.4% | 0.0x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 21.0 | 11.4 | 16.8% | 0.0x | 42.2x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 1.9 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 22.6 | 11.4 | -0.1% | -- | 20.8x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 25.3 | 11.4 | 15.0% | 0.0x | 13.7x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 23.4 | 11.4 | 22.6% | 3.3x | 10.0x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 29.5 | 11.4 | 20.7% | 3.1x | 10.2x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -3.6 | -5.1 | 0.1 | 31.2 | 11.5 | 18.5% | 3.0x | 14.2x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 27.5 | 11.5 | 14.4% | 3.4x | 14.6x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | -0.0 | 0.3 | 26.7 | 11.5 | 14.3% | 3.4x | 15.7x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 28.6 | 11.5 | 0.0% | 0.0x | 25.8x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 31.0 | 11.5 | 16.5% | 2.9x | 18.3x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 29.4 | 11.5 | 16.2% | 3.5x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 25.3 | 11.5 | 0.0% | 0.0x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 24.4 | 11.5 | 18.3% | 5.3x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.12 | — | 78.2% | 5 | 18.3× | 18.8× | 17.5× | 9.8× |
| 2023 | 4.20 | +17.8% | 76.2% | 6 | 14.2× | 164.2× | 10.0× | 6.9× |
| 2024 | 5.14 | +8.6% | 48.2% | 4 | 20.8× | 17.2× | 11.5× | 7.5× |
| 2025 | 4.65 | -10.8% | 30.4% | 2 | — | — | 12.4× | 8.2× |
| TTM | 4.22 | +0.8% | 45.5% | 4 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 4.22 | -12.1% | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Manhattan Bridge Capital is a micro-cap hard money lender with a deteriorating fundamental profile. Revenue is declining as higher rates suppress bridge loan demand, while the company's cost of funding (SOFR + spread) compresses net interest margins. The loan portfolio contains alarming aged assets (2016 vintage 'short-term' loans) with zero loss provisions, suggesting materially overstated book value. The critical near-term risk is a concentrated $38.5M debt maturity wall in early-mid 2026 that could be existential if refinancing terms deteriorate. Executive compensation at ~14% of revenue is egregious for a 6-person company. The 100% dividend payout ratio with a recent dividend cut signals earnings stress. While the ~10% dividend yield and low P/FCF (10.6x) appear attractive, these metrics are misleading given the zombie loan portfolio, refinancing risk, and structural competitive disadvantage versus larger private credit platforms. The 16% short interest reflects justified skepticism.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | $1.35/$2.10 | 0 | --/$0.10 | 0 |
| $5.00 | --/$0.25 | 171 | $0.50/$1.25 | 0 |
| $7.50 | --/$0.35 | 2 | $2.70/$3.90 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 11.9% of float, sold 9.4%. 6 filers moved >1% of shares (3 buying, 3 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANORAMIC INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC | $2.0M | $4.35 | +$1.9M | +$2.0M | +2.2% | $359M |
| Melia Wealth LLC | $2.0M | $4.67 | −$28K | +$357K | -3.5% | $207M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $1.5M | $4.35 | +$1.5M | +$1.5M | — | $4.04T |
| SHUFRO ROSE & CO LLC | $969K | $4.30 | +$0 | +$9K | -0.2% | $1.47B |
| Frazier Financial Advisors, LLC | $907K | $4.38 | +$540K | +$907K | -1.7% | $170M |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $872K | $4.47 | +$62K | +$205K | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $560K | $4.26 | +$60K | +$79K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| LPL Financial LLC | $290K | $5.15 | +$23K | +$155K | -0.2% | $372.65B |
| CARY STREET PARTNERS FINANCIAL LLC | $275K | $4.39 | +$1.0M | +$275K | +0.3% | $4.04B |
| MERCER GLOBAL ADVISORS INC /ADV | $220K | $5.10 | −$597K | +$10K | -0.0% | $63.93B |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $204K | $4.35 | +$199K | +$204K | — | $395.83B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $179K | $4.42 | +$114K | +$107K | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| Apella Capital, LLC | $175K | $4.48 | −$15K | +$175K | -0.0% | $6.61B |
| Mariner, LLC | $164K | $5.13 | +$0 | +$164K | -0.1% | $85.47B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $163K | $4.87 | +$20K | −$37K | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $144K | $4.96 | +$0 | +$0 | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| INTERNATIONAL ASSETS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC | $124K | $4.35 | −$10K | +$124K | -5.7% | $1.40B |
| BEESE FULMER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. | $122K | $4.65 | −$961K | +$122K | -0.0% | $1.56B |
| MONETA GROUP INVESTMENT ADVISORS LLC | $122K | $4.88 | −$17K | −$404K | -0.5% | $12.64B |
| Kestra Advisory Services, LLC | $115K | $4.92 | +$0 | +$47K | -0.4% | $26.28B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 61.3%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 2M | 2M | 1M | $0.12 | $0.12 – $0.12 | 1 |
| 2025 Q4 | 2M | 2M | 1M | $0.10 | $0.10 – $0.10 | 1 |
| 2026 Q1 | 2M | 1M | 1M | $0.11 | $0.11 – $0.11 | 1 |
| 2026 Q2 | 2M | 1M | 1M | $0.11 | $0.11 – $0.11 | 1 |
| 2026 Q3 | 2M | 1M | 1M | $0.11 | $0.11 – $0.11 | 1 |
| 2026 Q4 | 2M | 1M | 1M | $0.11 | $0.11 – $0.11 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 2M | 1M | 1M | $0.11 | $0.11 – $0.11 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 2M | 1M | 1M | $0.11 | $0.11 – $0.11 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 2M | 1M | 1M | $0.11 | $0.11 – $0.11 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 2M | 1M | 1M | $0.11 | $0.11 – $0.11 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-19 | BUY | Bentovim Lyron L | director | 1,757 | $4.52 | $8K | $186K |
| 2025-11-17 | BUY | RAN ASSAF | director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO | 4,000 | $4.65 | $19K | $5.71M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Manhattan Bridge Capital, Inc.: The 'Evergreen' Loan Trap
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
On February 10, 2026, Manhattan Bridge Capital declared a quarterly dividend of $0.11 per share, payable on April 15, 2026. While this was a slight reduction from the previous $0.115, it maintains a double-digit yield of approximately 10.1%. Additionally, institutional investors including Vanguard, Mercer Global Advisors, and Moneta Group have recently increased their stakes, with Mercer adding over 209,000 shares in late 2025/early 2026 (Sources: MarketBeat, Nasdaq, StockTitan).
The bear thesis centers on declining profitability and a tightening real estate market in New York. The company reported a 14.1% YoY decrease in net income for Q3 2025 ($1.2M vs $1.4M) and a 12% drop in total revenue due to a significant slowdown in new loan originations. Furthermore, technical indicators are overwhelmingly negative, with the stock trading near its 52-week low ($4.25) and holding sell signals across short- and long-term moving averages (Sources: Intellectia.AI, Investing.com).
A critical red flag is the 100% dividend payout ratio, which leaves zero margin for further earnings erosion. The short interest ratio has also climbed to 16.18% as of late February 2026, suggesting high conviction among short sellers. Additionally, the company has missed analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters, including an 8.3% surprise miss in October 2025 (Sources: MarketBeat, Investing.com, Intellectia.AI).
LOAN faces intense pressure in the specialty finance and 'hard money' lending sector. Higher prevailing interest rates have dampened borrower demand for short-term bridge loans. Larger private credit funds with lower costs of capital and broader geographic reach (outside of LOAN's New York/Florida focus) are squeezing margins on the high-quality collateral Manhattan Bridge typically targets (Source: Intellectia.AI).
Retail sentiment is largely bearish given the 14% price decline over the last quarter; however, contrarian 'smart money' sentiment is emerging. Management remains bullish, with CEO Assaf Ran citing the company's low leverage and authorizing a share buyback of 100,000 common shares. Some analysts highlight the stock as 'oversold' with an RSI below 30, suggesting a potential bounce-back if Q4 2025 earnings (expected March 6-11, 2026) stabilize (Sources: Intellectia.AI, MarketBeat).