Stocks/ELDN

ELDN

Eledon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$3.81
$228M market cap
Claude Rating
4/10UNDERWEIGHT
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-68.9M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$2.10
Upside
-44.9%

Eledon Pharmaceuticals, Inc., clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing medicines for the patients living with autoimmune disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and requiring an organ or cell-based transplant. Its lead product candidate includes AT-1501, a humanized monoclonal antibody to target CD40 Ligand that is a molecule expressed on the surface of human immune system T cells, which is in Phase 2a clinical trials for the treatment of ALS, and Phase 2 clinical

2-Year Price History

$3.89+39.9%
$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.0volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0111.1----------
Est2027-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0111.1----------
Est2027-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0111.1----------
Est2026-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0111.1----------
Est2026-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0111.1----------
Est2026-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0111.1----------
Est2026-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0111.1----------
Act2026-Q10.0-21.2-21.2-39.0-22.6-22.6-0.0111.10.6112.4-79.5%----
Est2025-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0111.1----------
Act2025-Q40.0-21.4-21.5-10.5-14.1-14.1-0.0133.30.675.4-97.0%----
Act2025-Q30.0-17.5-19.1-17.5-14.5-14.5-0.093.40.777.2-174.9%----
Act2025-Q20.0-24.7-24.7-11.2-17.7-17.7-0.0107.60.877.2-85.2%----
Act2025-Q10.0-6.5-18.0-6.5-16.1-16.1-0.0124.90.977.1-56.7%----
Act2024-Q40.0-44.1-24.7-44.6-19.0-19.0-0.0140.21.059.8-74.7%----
Act2024-Q30.0-20.4-20.577.0-11.8-11.8-0.078.20.555.5-90.0%----
Act2024-Q20.0-44.8-14.5-44.9-7.8-7.8-0.083.60.742.3-842.9%----
Act2024-Q10.0-10.8-10.9-23.6-8.7-8.7-0.042.90.330.0<-999%----
Act2023-Q40.0-85.7-10.3-85.8-9.1-9.1-0.051.10.424.2<-999%-253.7x--
Act2023-Q30.0-9.8-11.2-9.9-12.3-12.3-0.059.60.530.0-269.3%----
Act2023-Q20.0-65.7-10.4-65.8-8.2-8.3-0.071.40.624.0-161.0%----
Act2023-Q10.0-10.7-11.1-10.8-9.9-9.9-0.046.50.714.3<-999%----
Act2022-Q40.0-58.3-10.0-58.4-9.5-9.5-0.056.40.813.8<-999%----
Act2022-Q30.0-10.4-10.6-10.5-4.6-4.6-0.065.90.814.3-121.2%----
Act2022-Q20.0-9.2-9.3-9.3-6.2-6.2-0.070.50.614.3-85.0%----
Act2022-Q10.0-9.8-9.9-9.9-8.2-8.2-0.076.70.714.3-76.6%-1954.2x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20222.28-88n/m
20231.80-172n/m
20244.12-120n/mn/mn/m
20251.51-70n/mn/mn/m
TTM3.81-850.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E3.810

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude4/10UNDERWEIGHTFV: $2.10

Eledon is a high-risk clinical-stage biotech with a genuinely interesting anti-CD40L asset (tegoprubart) targeting a real unmet need in transplant medicine. However, the Phase 2 BESTOW trial missing its primary superiority endpoint materially increases the Phase 3 risk/reward calculus. The 52% stock crash post-data reflected the market correctly repricing this risk. With zero revenue, ~$93M cash, ~$55M annual burn rate accelerating with Phase 3, a massive 32.4M warrant overhang (42% of basic shares), near-certain additional dilution in 2026-2027, and accounting restatements that suggest a junior finance operation, the risk-reward at $2.76 is unfavorable relative to the full universe of investable biotech names. The T1D insulin independence data and strong long-term eGFR trajectory provide legitimate upside optionality, but this is a speculative name where the probability-weighted outcome for common equity holders is negative after accounting for inevitable dilution. Not a short at this depressed level, but not a compelling long either — better risk/reward exists elsewhere in biotech.

Catalyst Positive Phase 3 BESTOW-3 trial initiation/enrollment milestones, FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation, or a licensing/partnership deal for tegoprubart in transplant or ALS indications could re-rate the stock significantly higher.
Risk Phase 3 failure or FDA requiring superiority data rather than accepting non-inferiority, combined with cash exhaustion forcing a deeply dilutive raise at depressed prices, could result in 70%+ equity value destruction.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
3/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$3.81
Market Cap$228M
Enterprise Value$118M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-30.2%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution45.8%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-78.2M
Free Cash Flow$-68.9M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-109.2%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage--

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$0.98
-74.2% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$-111M
= Fair Equity$111M
Revenue Growth0.0% → 8.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → 25.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF20.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float13.9%
Short Shares7.6M
Days to Cover3.6
Change (vs Prior)-3.3%
Short % Float History
13.90%+10.60pp
2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)--
Put IV (ATM)109%
ATM Spread--
Call $OI (near money)$310K
Put $OI (near money)$13K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$5.0
Major Expirations2
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$2.50$0.80/$1.705--/$0.700
$5.00--/$0.8027$0.90/$1.900
$7.50$0.10/$0.200$3.10/$4.100
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin0.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds18%
Est. Borrow Rate100.0%
Terminal EV/FCF20.0x
LT Growth15.0%
LT FCF Margin25.0%

Employees

Headcount31
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$0
2022: 17 → 2023: 20 → 2024: 31 → 2025: 33 (25% CAGR)

Cash Runway

19.4months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

BALANCED

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 8.3% of float, sold 7.6%. 4 filers moved >1% of shares (2 buying, 2 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+0.7% of float (net)
Bought 8.3% · Sold 7.6%
73 filers reported (last quarter: 97)

Ownership composition

Active
39.2%(-7.2% YoY)
107 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
16.1%(+9.2% YoY)
9 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
1.0%(-1.7% YoY)
5 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
2.0%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BVF INC/IL$19.4M$2.37+$0+$0-0.4%$3.14B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$13.5M$2.85+$2.3M+$11.5M-0.2%$5.69T
Defilade Capital Management, L.P.$11.0M$1.63+$843K+$11.0M+1.3%$680M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$10.1M$3.08+$10.1M+$10.1M$4.04T
Ensign Peak Advisors, Inc$7.6M$2.53+$0+$3.7M-0.4%$53.58B
Zimmer Partners, LP$5.8M$2.47−$1.6M+$3.4M+0.4%$3.95B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$5.5M$2.94+$1.1M+$3.5M+2.3%$1.61T
SPHERA FUNDS MANAGEMENT LTD.$5.5M$2.90−$1.1M−$1.6M-9.9%$575M
Catalio Capital Management, LP$5.1M$2.57+$1.2M+$5.1M+3.2%$479M
Blue Owl Capital Holdings LP$4.4M$3.27−$1.6M−$1.2M-2.3%$372M
STATE STREET CORPPassive$3.6M$2.75+$1.2M+$2.9M-0.2%$2.89T
AWM Investment Company, Inc.$3.4M$4.12+$0−$1K-0.6%$903M
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.$3.4M$1.55−$1.5M+$3.3M-1.6%$7.90B
KINGDON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.$3.2M$1.51+$0+$3.2M-2.4%$597M
ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC$3.0M$1.53−$2.6M+$3.0M+8.3%$1.64B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$2.7M$3.13+$2.5M+$2.7M-0.1%$1.36T
Sanofi$2.5M$4.12+$0+$0+4.1%$336M
CM Management, LLC$2.0M$2.73+$0+$1.2M-4.5%$120M
22NW, LP$2.0M$3.39+$0+$0-0.5%$127M
SG Americas Securities, LLCMM$2.0M$1.58+$26K+$1.9M-0.1%$90.20B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.26%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.34%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+1.40%
76 buyers · $0.05B in
Sellers (this Q)
-2.63%
21 sellers · $-0.01B out
alpha coverage: 90% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+7.2%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+31.2%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+5.3%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-2.6%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-15.1%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.5%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.6%
Holder rally (any stock)
-9.8%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

04.5M9.0M13.5M18.0M$1.37$2.06$2.75$3.43$4.122021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
BVF INC/IL6.3MRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.Cormorant Asset Management, LLCDefilade Capital Management, L.P.3.6MFMR LLC6KLogos Global Management LPSPHERA FUNDS MANAGEMENT LTD.1.8MFirst Light Asset Management, LLCBlue Owl Capital Holdings LP1.4MEnsign Peak Advisors, Inc2.5M

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (1 analysts)$5.003120.0%
Last Year (2 analysts)$7.008370.0%
Current Price$3.81
Analyst Ratings
4
Buy: 4Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q30M0M-19M$-0.25$-0.36 – $-0.185
2025 Q40M0M-15M$-0.20$-0.22 – $-0.174
2026 Q10M0M-21M$-0.18$-0.29 – $-0.072
2026 Q20M0M-17M$-0.15$-0.19 – $-0.122
2026 Q30M0M-20M$-0.18$-0.21 – $-0.162
2026 Q40M0M-21M$-0.18$-0.18 – $-0.181
2027 Q10M0M-23M$-0.20$-0.20 – $-0.201
2027 Q20M0M-24M$-0.21$-0.21 – $-0.211
2027 Q30M0M-23M$-0.20$-0.20 – $-0.201
2027 Q40M0M-24M$-0.21$-0.21 – $-0.211

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$8.1M
Incentive & Other$35.8M
Total Compensation$43.9M
% of Revenue0.0%

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

34.5%retail-3.3pp
13.6%dark-1.0pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Eledon Pharmaceuticals: A Warrant-Weighted Dilution Engine Fueled by High-Octane Cash Burn

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
2/10
Dilution
9/10
Insolvency
6/10
Earnings Overstated
3/10
Hidden Liabilities
5/10
Legal
2/10
Audit Warnings
4/10
Hidden Upside
5/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In January 2026, Eledon reported positive 24-month long-term data from its Phase 1b kidney transplant trial, showing mean kidney function (eGFR) actually increased from 67.0 to 74.2 mL/min/1.73 m² over the second year with zero rejections or deaths. Additionally, the Phase 2 BESTOW trial results presented in November 2025 confirmed 'non-inferiority' to the standard-of-care (tacrolimus) with a superior safety profile, including significantly lower rates of new-onset diabetes and tremors (Source: Eledon PR, Investing.com).

🐻 Bear Case

The core of the short thesis relies on the Phase 2 BESTOW trial missing its primary efficacy endpoint of statistical superiority in eGFR at 12 months. Bears argue that the slightly higher efficacy-failure rate for tegoprubart (22.2%) compared to tacrolimus (17.2%) suggests a risk of rejection that a superior safety profile may not fully offset in the eyes of the FDA (Source: Clinical Trials Arena, Simply Wall St).

🚩 Red Flags

The stock suffered a significant ~52% single-day drop in November 2025 following the BESTOW data release, indicating a loss of momentum. Furthermore, a $57.5 million underwritten public offering in late 2025 caused substantial shareholder dilution, and the company reported a net loss of $17.5 million for Q3 2025 with zero revenue (Source: Timothy Sykes, Public.com).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Tacrolimus remains the entrenched 'standard of care' despite its toxicity; displacing it requires definitive Phase 3 success. Eledon also faces competition from other biotech firms developing anti-CD40L and anti-CD40 antibodies, such as Sanofi and Biogen, which are targeting similar transplant and autoimmune indications.

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among specialists is highly positive regarding 'insulin independence' results in Type 1 Diabetes; all six patients in a UChicago investigator-led trial achieved insulin freedom using tegoprubart. Nephrologists are encouraged by the 69-74 eGFR levels, which are among the highest ever reported in transplant trials, suggesting a high clinical demand for a 'tacrolimus-free' regimen (Source: FirstWord Pharma, Seeking Alpha).