ATAI
Atai Beckley N.VAtai Beckley NV is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It engages in the treatment of mental health disorders. The company was founded by Christian Angermayer, Florian Brand, Srinivas Rao and Lars Christian Wilde in June 2018 and is headquartered in Amstelveen, Netherlands.
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 0.5 | -45.0 | -- | -47.5 | -- | -35.0 | -1.5 | -20.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 0.5 | -47.5 | -- | -50.0 | -- | -37.5 | -1.5 | 14.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 0.5 | -45.0 | -- | -47.5 | -- | -35.0 | -1.5 | 52.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 0.5 | -42.5 | -- | -45.0 | -- | -32.5 | -1.5 | 87.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 0.5 | -40.0 | -- | -42.5 | -- | -30.0 | -1.8 | 119.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 0.6 | -39.0 | -- | -42.0 | -- | -28.8 | -1.8 | 149.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.7 | -36.4 | -- | -38.5 | -- | -26.6 | -1.8 | 178.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.8 | -36.0 | -- | -38.4 | -- | -25.6 | -1.6 | 205.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 1.0 | -30.7 | -30.9 | -29.8 | -21.1 | -21.1 | -0.0 | 230.8 | 2.0 | 226.5 | -152.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 1.1 | -544.6 | -39.4 | -544.8 | -48.2 | -48.3 | -0.1 | 256.0 | 2.1 | 222.1 | -148.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 0.8 | -60.7 | -28.4 | -61.1 | -23.3 | -28.6 | -5.4 | 114.6 | 3.0 | 217.6 | -250.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.7 | -27.2 | -25.3 | -27.7 | -14.1 | -19.2 | -5.1 | 95.9 | 9.2 | 196.6 | -280.0% | -102.9x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 1.6 | -19.1 | -20.4 | -26.4 | -17.8 | -18.1 | -0.3 | 98.2 | 26.7 | 176.3 | -130.5% | -21.2x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | -0.0 | -38.0 | -30.3 | -39.0 | -24.3 | -24.4 | -0.1 | 62.3 | 24.7 | 160.2 | -486.9% | -39.9x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 0.0 | -25.6 | -22.6 | -26.3 | -19.3 | -19.3 | -0.0 | 85.9 | 23.8 | 160.6 | -376.8% | -32.7x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.3 | -56.3 | -25.7 | -57.3 | -16.1 | -16.1 | -0.0 | 88.4 | 19.6 | 160.4 | -524.2% | -80.2x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.0 | -22.1 | -24.1 | -26.7 | -22.6 | -22.6 | -0.0 | 106.3 | 20.8 | 158.9 | -323.5% | -32.2x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 0.0 | -17.5 | -33.6 | -18.3 | -22.0 | -22.0 | -0.0 | 179.3 | 19.1 | 158.8 | -275.5% | -25.4x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 0.1 | 44.6 | -26.8 | 44.2 | -18.4 | -18.4 | -0.0 | 209.0 | 16.7 | 155.8 | -152.5% | 65.0x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.2 | -30.8 | -31.9 | -33.0 | -22.6 | -22.7 | -0.1 | 227.5 | 16.7 | 155.8 | -762.9% | -46.8x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 0.0 | -30.0 | -33.2 | -33.1 | -21.1 | -21.6 | -0.4 | 249.9 | 16.7 | 155.8 | -795.2% | -48.1x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 0.0 | -37.5 | -37.6 | -45.0 | -30.5 | -30.7 | -0.2 | 273.1 | 15.1 | 158.7 | -389.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 0.0 | -33.1 | -38.4 | -33.9 | -28.1 | -28.6 | -0.5 | 304.1 | 15.0 | 156.6 | -226.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.2 | -30.8 | -35.0 | -36.6 | -21.9 | -22.2 | -0.2 | 312.5 | 0.6 | 154.0 | -181.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 0.0 | -31.9 | -33.4 | -36.9 | -24.0 | -24.0 | -0.1 | 334.9 | 0.7 | 153.5 | -118.2% | -- | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.66 | — | -57438.8% | -133 | n/m | n/m | n/m | >999× |
| 2023 | 1.41 | +35.3% | -10724.5% | -34 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 627.3× |
| 2024 | 1.33 | -1.9% | -46103.6% | -142 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 582.4× |
| 2025 | 4.09 | +1227.6% | -15933.9% | -652 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 250.0× |
| TTM | 4.53 | +87.2% | -19014.2% | -663 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 4.53 | -25.5% | -58.2% | -2 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 4.53 | -23.1% | -90.0% | -2 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
ATAI is a high-risk clinical-stage psychedelic biotech with a genuinely promising lead asset (BPL-003 for TRD) that delivered strong Phase 2b results. However, the investment case is severely impaired by: (1) extreme 35%+ annual dilution that destroys per-share value, (2) years of cash burn ahead before any commercial revenue with Phase 3 not starting until mid-2026, (3) binary Phase 3 risk in psychiatry where failure rates are high, (4) complex corporate structure with VIE entities and related-party conflicts, (5) questionable capital allocation (Bitcoin treasury, failed IntelGenx investments). The ~$220M cash position provides runway but at the cost of massive share count expansion. Analyst targets of $10-13 assume clinical success, but risk-adjusted fair value is much lower given the probability-weighted outcomes. The 15% short interest reflects legitimate concerns. This is a speculative option on psychedelic medicine commercialization, not a traditional equity investment.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.00 | $2.80/$3.80 | 0 | --/$1.00 | 0 |
| $2.00 | $1.80/$2.80 | 0 | --/$0.95 | 0 |
| $3.00 | $0.95/$1.95 | 4 | --/$0.95 | 0 |
| $4.00 | $0.20/$0.80 | 220 | --/$0.35 | 42 |
| $5.00 | $0.25/$0.30 | 81 | $0.30/$1.30 | 43 |
| $6.00 | $0.10/$0.20 | 83 | $1.20/$2.20 | 0 |
| $7.00 | --/$0.75 | 156 | $2.20/$3.20 | 0 |
| $8.00 | --/$0.40 | 20 | $3.10/$4.10 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 38.5% of float, sold 0.2%. 6 filers moved >1% of shares (6 buying, 0 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University | $2.5M | $3.64 | +$0 | +$0 | -1.6% | $102M |
| STABLEFORD CAPITAL II LLC | $1.0M | $4.09 | −$19K | +$1.0M | +0.1% | $268M |
| KLP KAPITALFORVALTNING AS | $247K | $4.09 | +$0 | +$247K | -0.2% | $25.47B |
| WEALTH ENHANCEMENT ADVISORY SERVICES, LLC | $199K | $5.29 | −$17K | +$199K | -0.0% | $45.12B |
| RHL GROUP, LLC | $0 | $4.09 | +$0 | +$0 | +2.2% | $117M |
| Sankala Group LLC | $0 | $4.09 | +$0 | +$0 | +0.4% | $122M |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
Top-5 holders · 100.0%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 0M | -0M | -26M | $-0.12 | $-0.13 – $-0.12 | 5 |
| 2025 Q4 | 0M | -0M | -24M | $-0.10 | $-0.14 – $-0.08 | 6 |
| 2026 Q1 | 0M | -0M | -24M | $-0.11 | $-0.15 – $-0.08 | 5 |
| 2026 Q2 | 0M | -0M | -25M | $-0.11 | $-0.17 – $-0.08 | 6 |
| 2026 Q3 | 0M | -0M | -26M | $-0.12 | $-0.15 – $-0.10 | 6 |
| 2026 Q4 | 0M | -0M | -29M | $-0.13 | $-0.13 – $-0.13 | 4 |
| 2027 Q1 | 1M | -1M | -24M | $-0.11 | $-0.11 – $-0.11 | 2 |
| 2027 Q2 | 1M | -1M | -25M | $-0.11 | $-0.11 – $-0.11 | 2 |
| 2027 Q3 | 1M | -1M | -25M | $-0.11 | $-0.11 – $-0.11 | 2 |
| 2027 Q4 | 0M | -0M | -25M | $-0.11 | $-0.11 – $-0.11 | 2 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2022-2024)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | BUY | Apeiron Investment Group Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 8,675,799 | $2.19 | $19.00M | $111.79M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Atai Beckley N.V.: A Clinical Maze of Massive Dilution, VIE Complexity, and Related-Party Maneuvers
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
ATAI (now AtaiBeckley) has achieved major clinical and strategic milestones, most notably the positive Phase 2b topline results for BPL-003 (intranasal 5-MeO-DMT), which met all primary and secondary endpoints for treatment-resistant depression (TRD). The FDA has supported its advancement into a dual-pivotal Phase 3 program (ReConnection-1 and -2) expected to initiate in Q2 2026. Additionally, the company completed a strategic combination with Beckley Psytech and a U.S. redomiciliation. Financially, ATAI extended its cash runway into early 2029 following equity raises, ending 2025 with $220.7 million in liquidity (Nasdaq, March 2026).
The bear thesis centers on massive accounting losses and persistent cash burn. For the full year 2025, the company reported a net loss of $660 million, a staggering increase from $149 million in 2024, largely driven by $530 million in non-cash R&D charges related to the Beckley acquisition. Furthermore, clinical timelines are shifting; the Phase 2 topline readout for VLS-01 was delayed to H2 2026 due to slow site activation, prolonging the time until the company can reach a commercial-stage catalyst (Fintool, August 2025; Nasdaq, March 2026).
A recurring red flag is the 'sell the news' behavior; despite positive readouts for BPL-003 and EMP-01, the stock has often faced immediate sell-offs or negative reactions from the market (Stock Titan, March 2026). Additionally, the reliance on high-volume equity issuances ($89.2 million in early 2025) to maintain the runway risks further shareholder dilution if Phase 3 trials face any enrollment or regulatory hurdles (GlobeNewswire, August 2025).
ATAI faces intense competition in the 'interventional psychiatry' space, specifically from other short-acting psychedelic developers. While BPL-003 is designed to fit the existing 2-hour in-clinic window (similar to Spravato), any clinical failure or delay allows competitors with similar short-half-life assets to capture the market first. The high-risk, binary nature of Phase 3 psychiatry trials remains a threat, as seen in the broader sector where mixed results often lead to permanent capital impairment (Intellectia.AI, October 2025).
Sentiment among professional analysts is overwhelmingly bullish, providing a sharp contrast to the 'short' rating. As of late 2025, analysts held an average price target of $11.29–$13.50, representing over 175% upside from current levels, with zero 'Sell' ratings reported. Institutional trust is evidenced by Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment acquiring over 250,000 shares and CEO Srinivas Rao personally increasing his stake, signaling high internal conviction (DirectorsTalk, August 2025; StocksToTrade, October 2025).