XTIA
XTI Aerospace, Inc.XTI Aircraft Company manufactures vertical takeoff airplanes. The company provides TriFan 600, which lifts off vertically. XTI Aircraft Company was formerly known as AVX Aircraft Technologies, Inc. and changed its name to XTI Aircraft Company in March 2015. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Englewood, Colorado.
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 50.0 | 1.0 | -- | -2.5 | -- | -1.0 | -0.8 | -20.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 47.0 | 0.2 | -- | -3.3 | -- | -1.9 | -0.7 | -19.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 44.0 | -0.9 | -- | -4.4 | -- | -3.1 | -0.8 | -17.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 40.0 | -2.0 | -- | -6.0 | -- | -4.0 | -0.8 | -14.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 45.0 | -1.4 | -- | -5.4 | -- | -3.6 | -0.7 | -10.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 42.0 | -3.4 | -- | -7.6 | -- | -5.9 | -0.8 | -7.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 38.0 | -5.7 | -- | -9.5 | -- | -7.6 | -0.8 | -1.4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 32.0 | -8.0 | -- | -11.2 | -- | -9.0 | -0.8 | 6.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 27.7 | -10.4 | -10.4 | -35.3 | -10.5 | -10.6 | -0.1 | 15.2 | 12.7 | 35.3 | -271.2% | -67.5x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 18.9 | -5.6 | -9.3 | -21.6 | -6.3 | -6.3 | -0.1 | 16.7 | 11.4 | 32.7 | -63.1% | -109.3x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 2.5 | -13.3 | -14.8 | -13.5 | -8.4 | -8.4 | -0.0 | 32.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -146.0% | -13331.0x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.6 | -20.7 | -11.1 | -20.9 | -6.7 | -6.8 | -0.1 | 20.1 | 0.4 | 7.1 | -105.2% | -20728.0x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 0.5 | -12.5 | -10.4 | -12.9 | -15.2 | -15.3 | -0.0 | 8.2 | 0.5 | 3.4 | -94.5% | -57.6x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 1.0 | -13.0 | -7.5 | -13.9 | -8.0 | -8.0 | -0.0 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | -75.7% | -21.9x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 0.9 | -3.9 | -4.2 | -4.4 | -6.1 | -6.2 | -0.0 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 0.1 | -41.8% | -17.6x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 1.0 | -14.3 | -13.9 | -14.7 | -5.6 | -5.7 | -0.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 0.1 | -124.7% | -204.6x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.2 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.6 | -2.6 | -2.6 | -0.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 | -20.4% | -8.1x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.1 | -16.2 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 25.3 | 0.0 | 1.8% | 0.5x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 2.0 | -9.6 | -5.7 | -10.4 | -1.4 | -9.4 | -0.1 | 13.5 | 8.2 | 0.0 | -211.3% | -11.7x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 2.1 | -5.1 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -6.3 | -6.3 | -0.1 | 15.7 | 18.3 | 0.0 | -127.9% | -17.4x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 3.1 | -1.1 | -6.6 | -16.9 | -9.5 | -9.7 | -0.2 | 15.3 | 19.6 | 0.0 | -135.1% | -4.5x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 5.3 | -13.9 | -11.6 | -14.7 | -7.0 | -7.4 | -0.4 | 20.2 | 17.7 | 0.3 | -257.8% | -22.8x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 4.2 | -15.7 | -10.4 | -17.6 | -7.4 | -7.8 | -0.4 | 63.2 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -331.8% | -65.3x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 4.7 | -1.7 | -12.2 | -19.9 | -4.2 | -4.5 | -0.3 | 65.8 | 6.1 | 0.1 | -185.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 5.2 | -7.1 | -10.6 | -11.2 | -15.3 | -15.5 | -0.2 | 75.9 | 3.0 | 0.1 | -101.5% | -- | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 39,355 | — | -197.5% | -38 | — | — | n/m | 0.0× |
| 2023 | 1,296 | -39.5% | -117.5% | -14 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 0.1× |
| 2024 | 10.75 | -72.7% | -1045.3% | -33 | — | — | n/m | 0.1× |
| 2025 | 1.24 | +602.4% | -231.8% | -52 | — | — | n/m | 0.0× |
| TTM | 1.81 | +1334.0% | -100.7% | -50 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 1.81 | +215.9% | -0.1% | -0 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 1.81 | +15.3% | -0.0% | -0 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
XTIA is a deeply speculative, serially dilutive company attempting a pivot from pre-revenue aerospace R&D to a drone distribution platform via the Drone Nerds acquisition. While the acquisition provides a real revenue base (~$110M annual), the drone distribution business operates on razor-thin margins that cannot fund the massive ongoing TriFan 600 R&D burn. The company has raised $57M+ in 2025 alone through predatory equity offerings with warrant overhangs that destroy common equity value. With 57% annual dilution, a $28M warrant liability, 10-month cash runway, and a flagship product (TriFan 600) that is 5+ years from meaningful revenue, the equity is a value transfer mechanism from common shareholders to warrant holders and insiders. The $7B 'backlog' is essentially non-binding with only $1.4M in deposits. Short interest at 24-48% of float reflects justified skepticism.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 12.7% of float, sold 4.2%. 2 filers moved >1% of shares (2 buying, 0 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $3.6M | $2.07 | +$3.6M | +$3.6M | — | $4.04T |
| MYDA Advisors LLC | $1.5M | $2.07 | +$1.5M | +$1.5M | +3.5% | $422M |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $823K | $1.51 | +$195K | +$761K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $428K | $2.07 | +$428K | +$428K | — | $395.83B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $343K | $1.73 | +$158K | +$343K | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| AlphaCentric Advisors LLC | $311K | $2.07 | +$311K | +$311K | -0.3% | $97.5M |
| ADVISOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. | $297K | $1.93 | +$247K | +$297K | -0.3% | $67.63B |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $238K | $2.02 | +$212K | +$238K | -0.2% | $760.93B |
| Covestor Ltd | $237K | $2.07 | +$237K | +$237K | -0.7% | $144M |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $207K | $1.27 | −$154K | +$207K | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| Farther Finance Advisors, LLC | $169K | $1.47 | −$29K | +$169K | -0.9% | $10.58B |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $154K | $1.38 | −$26K | +$154K | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| ENVESTNET ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | $132K | $2.07 | +$132K | +$132K | -0.2% | $367.84B |
| UBS Group AG | $125K | $1.30 | −$135K | +$124K | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $94K | $1.87 | +$61K | +$91K | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| Invesco Ltd. | $65K | $2.07 | +$65K | +$65K | -0.2% | $652.04B |
| Tower Research Capital LLC (TRC)MM | $53K | $2.07 | +$53K | +$53K | -0.6% | $3.84B |
| JONES FINANCIAL COMPANIES LLLP | $52K | $1.74 | +$20K | +$52K | -0.1% | $208.07B |
| RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC | $43K | $1.64 | +$12K | +$43K | -0.0% | $322.69B |
| Vanguard Global Advisers, LLCPassive | $41K | $2.07 | +$41K | +$41K | — | $186.48B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 72.3%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 1M | -0M | -11M | $-0.32 | $-0.32 – $-0.32 | 1 |
| 2025 Q4 | 15M | -9M | -12M | $-0.34 | $-0.34 – $-0.34 | 1 |
| 2026 Q1 | 33M | -20M | -10M | $-0.27 | $-0.27 – $-0.27 | 1 |
| 2026 Q2 | 35M | -21M | -8M | $-0.22 | $-0.22 – $-0.22 | 1 |
| 2026 Q3 | 48M | -29M | -3M | $-0.09 | $-0.09 – $-0.09 | 1 |
| 2026 Q4 | 50M | -30M | -3M | $-0.09 | $-0.09 – $-0.09 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 32M | -19M | -7M | $-0.19 | $-0.19 – $-0.19 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 40M | -24M | -5M | $-0.15 | $-0.15 – $-0.15 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 55M | -33M | -2M | $-0.07 | $-0.07 – $-0.07 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 58M | -35M | -2M | $-0.05 | $-0.05 – $-0.05 | 1 |
Corporate
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| GERMANY | $0.4M | NEW |
| UNITED STATES | $0.3M | NEW |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
XTI Aerospace: A Dilution Machine Masking Technical Insolvency and Mounting Regulatory Probes
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
XTI Aerospace has undergone a significant business transformation following its November 2025 acquisition of Drone Nerds, shifting from a pre-revenue R&D firm to a comprehensive drone platform generating over $110 million in annual revenue. In February 2026, the company issued bullish guidance for 2026, targeting $160 million+ in revenue and projecting positive monthly cash flow of approximately $2 million by year-end. Technical milestones for the TriFan 600 include the completion of subscale 'Sparrow' flight operations and the finalization of the Global Finite Element Model (GFEM) digital twin. Additionally, the company appointed aviation veteran Jonathan G. Ornstein to its board in February 2026 to accelerate M&A and capital strategy.
The bear thesis centers on long-term execution risk and historical dilution. Critics argue that the TriFan 600, which has been in development since 2013, lacks a firm timeline for FAA type certification and service entry, with a piloted demonstrator not expected until 2027. Short sellers point to a history of negative earnings (EPS of -$0.32 in Q4 2025) and a reliance on equity offerings, such as the $18.5 million public offering in late 2025, which continues to dilute shareholders. Market forecasts from some sources (e.g., CoinCodex) predict severe price deterioration to $0.35 by 2030 based on technical indicators and failure to achieve sustained profitability.
The company has a very low financial health score (0.96/10 per InvestingPro) and continues to operate with negative EBITDA (-$19.72M TTM). There is significant short interest, currently at 24.65% of the float, and a 'Sell' rating from some institutional analysts due to the high risk of failure in the capital-intensive aerospace sector. Furthermore, while pre-orders total over 700 units ($7 billion value), only approximately $1.4 million has been received in actual deposits, indicating that the majority of the 'backlog' is non-binding or highly conditional.
XTI faces intense competition from well-funded players in the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) space, such as Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation, who are further along in the FAA certification process. Unlike XTI's hybrid-turbine approach, many competitors are focused on fully electric (eVTOL) designs which may benefit more from current 'green' regulatory tailwinds and subsidies. In the drone segment, the company must defend its NDAA-compliant market share against evolving global competitors and domestic startups targeting the federal and defense sectors.
Sentiment among strategic partners appears cautiously optimistic. Mesa Air Group remains a key champion with a conditional order for up to 100 TriFan 600s. The partnership with IDEO suggests a serious commitment to refining the 'customer-centric' cabin design and market segmentation for ultra-high-net-worth individuals and corporate flight departments. Retail investor sentiment on platforms like Reddit remains polarized, with 'believers' citing the Drone Nerds revenue as a safety net, while others fear a repeat of previous reverse splits and dilution cycles.