Stocks/SYPR

SYPR

Sypris Solutions, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical·Auto - Parts
$3.31
$76M market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$116.2M
Free Cash Flow
$-3.5M
Rev Growth
-12.5%
FCF Margin
-3.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
21.1x
Fair Value
$2.00
Upside
-39.6%

Sypris Solutions, Inc. provides truck components, oil and gas pipeline components, and aerospace and defense electronics primarily in North America and Mexico. It operates in two segments, Sypris Technologies and Sypris Electronics. The Sypris Technologies segment supplies forged, machined, welded, and heat-treated steel components for the commercial vehicle, off highway vehicle, recreational vehicle, automotive, industrial, light truck, and energy markets. This segment also offers drive train c

2-Year Price History

$2.92+73.8%
$1.5$2.0$2.5$3.0$3.5volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q334.51.9--0.5--1.0-0.37.0----------
Est2027-Q234.01.7--0.4--1.7-0.36.0----------
Est2027-Q132.01.1---0.2---1.6-0.34.3----------
Est2026-Q433.01.8--0.3--1.3-0.35.9----------
Est2026-Q331.01.2--0.0--0.5-0.34.6----------
Est2026-Q230.50.9---0.2--0.9-0.24.1----------
Est2026-Q128.50.4---0.7---2.3-0.23.2----------
Act2026-Q125.8-2.8-3.6-4.1-2.3-2.6-0.24.912.422.3-111.2%-5.4x--
Est2025-Q430.01.4--0.2--0.6-0.25.5----------
Act2025-Q430.3-2.6-3.3-3.9-1.1-1.5-0.46.826.222.3-44.4%-4.6x--
Act2025-Q328.71.5-1.70.5-0.2-0.4-0.28.413.122.9-34.7%3.8x19.0x
Act2025-Q231.4-0.8-1.4-2.11.10.9-0.26.419.122.3-25.2%-2.2x14.3x
Act2025-Q129.50.4-0.1-0.9-5.5-5.5-0.06.619.522.1-2.2%1.2x8.0x
Act2024-Q433.51.61.30.12.31.9-0.49.717.222.415.3%7.4x8.7x
Act2024-Q335.72.31.70.4-4.8-4.9-0.28.218.022.422.0%4.2x13.8x
Act2024-Q235.52.01.30.06.26.0-0.213.818.822.314.3%3.3x22.0x
Act2024-Q135.6-0.9-1.4-2.2-1.7-2.0-0.38.119.322.0-21.4%-2.7x43.8x
Act2023-Q434.70.3-0.3-1.1-2.9-3.2-0.37.915.821.9-4.7%1.4x14.7x
Act2023-Q333.60.5-0.1-0.6-11.9-12.2-0.48.413.621.9-2.5%3.5x10.9x
Act2023-Q235.61.41.00.24.94.1-0.820.613.422.516.7%7.7x11.9x
Act2023-Q132.31.30.4-0.2-1.2-2.0-0.719.514.721.85.0%5.7x15.7x
Act2022-Q429.71.50.80.15.55.3-0.221.716.121.811.2%4.5x12.6x
Act2022-Q325.2-1.0-1.6-2.210.39.3-1.016.516.621.7-31.4%-3.6x--
Act2022-Q229.00.70.0-0.61.20.3-0.97.517.621.70.5%2.6x--
Act2022-Q126.21.71.10.2-3.3-4.2-0.97.516.422.712.7%7.0x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20222.052.6%312.6×3.4×n/m0.4×
20232.03+23.7%2.5%314.7×n/mn/m0.3×
20241.78+2.9%3.6%58.7×47.1×n/m0.3×
20252.44-14.5%-1.3%-2n/mn/mn/m0.4×
TTM3.31-13.4%-4.1%-50.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E3.31+5.9%0.0%00.0×0.0×n/m0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $2.00

Sypris is a deeply troubled micro-cap manufacturer with a fragile balance sheet (133x debt-to-equity), survival-dependent on insider CEO debt secured by substantially all company assets. The Technologies segment is in severe cyclical decline (-41% YoY), and while Electronics has a decent defense backlog, production inefficiencies are compressing margins. Recent contract wins (AMT sole-source, truck OEM renewal, Artemis extension) provide a narrative for recovery, but the stock has already surged 61% on these announcements, pricing in a recovery that has not yet materialized in financials. The CEO's first-priority lien on all assets, deferred interest payments coming due in 2026, and negative TTM FCF create a liquidity cliff that could force dilutive actions. At $3.42/share and $78M market cap on ~$120M annualized revenue with negative margins, the stock is trading on hope rather than fundamentals. This is a classic micro-cap value trap where insider control and financial engineering mask deteriorating economics.

Catalyst Technologies segment revenue recovery driven by the commercial vehicle cycle upturn and new AMT contract ramp, combined with Electronics backlog execution on Artemis/DoD programs, could drive operating leverage. However, this is 12-18 months away and already partially priced in.
Risk The 2026 maturity/interest payment cliff on the GFCM insider note. If the company cannot refinance or generate sufficient FCF, the CEO (as secured creditor) holds first-priority claim on all assets, creating a scenario where equity holders are wiped out even as the business continues operating.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
3/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$3.31
Market Cap$76M
Enterprise Value$84M
P/S Ratio0.7x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-3.0%
FCF Yield-4.6%
Dividend Yield (TTM)3.0%
Annual Dilution0.9%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$116.2M
Net Income$-9.6M
Free Cash Flow$-3.5M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-12.5%
EBITDA Margin-4.1%
Net Margin-8.2%
FCF Margin-3.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.8%
SBC % of Revenue0.5%
ROIC-53.9%
WC Change % Rev5.4%
Interest Coverage-2.6x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$0.49
-85.3% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$18M
− Net Debt$8M
= Fair Equity$11M
Revenue Growth11.3% → 2.0%
FCF Margin-3.0% → 4.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF7.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float0.8%
Short Shares0.1M
Days to Cover1.0
Change (vs Prior)-36.2%
Short % Float History
0.80%-3.50pp
1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)114%
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread8.6%
Call $OI (near money)$10K
Put $OI (near money)$30
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$2.5
Major Expirations1
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$2.50$0.60/$0.85137--/$0.401
$5.00$0.05/$0.75135$1.75/$4.300
$7.50--/$0.2522$3.90/$5.700
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+3.3%
Forward FCF Margin-0.3%
Forward EBITDA Margin3.3%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage2.3x
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds18%
Est. Borrow Rate14.0%
Terminal EV/FCF7.0x
LT Growth2.0%
LT FCF Margin4.0%

Employees

Headcount713
Revenue / Employee$162,959
Gross Profit / Employee$9,612
2022: 719 → 2023: 752 → 2024: 713 → 2025: 548 (-9% CAGR)

Cash Runway

16.5months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 8.4% of float, sold 1.5%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+6.9% of float (net)
Bought 8.4% · Sold 1.5%
27 filers reported (last quarter: 22)

Ownership composition

Active
15.7%(+8.0% YoY)
16 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
4.0%(+1.9% YoY)
8 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(-0.1% YoY)
2 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
12.6%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Williams & Novak, LLC$6.3M$2.03−$254K−$389K-0.4%$133M
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$1.8M$2.03−$93K−$185K+1.2%$63.91B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$1.5M$2.85+$1.5M+$1.5M$4.04T
Marex Group plc$740K$2.85+$740K+$740K-1.7%$9.64B
SEI INVESTMENTS CO$505K$2.85+$505K+$505K-0.4%$108.06B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$446K$1.85+$25K+$7K+2.3%$1.61T
Informed Momentum Co LLC$414K$2.85+$414K+$414K+7.7%$865M
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$321K$2.63+$232K+$321K-0.4%$138.22B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$195K$2.85+$195K+$195K$395.83B
BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC$186K$1.97+$0+$0-2.3%$4.93B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$179K$1.63−$3K+$6K-0.2%$5.69T
LPL Financial LLC$170K$2.85+$170K+$170K-0.2%$372.65B
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$160K$2.24+$40K+$52K-0.4%$480.92B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$125K$2.82+$67K+$67K-0.2%$2.89T
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$64K$2.83+$19K+$18K-0.2%$755.34B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$51K$2.43+$15K+$51K-0.1%$92.10B
HRT FINANCIAL LP$36K$2.85+$36K+$36K-0.6%$39.46B
UBS Group AG$12K$1.81+$12K−$84K-0.3%$562.11B
Vanguard Global Advisers, LLCPassive$12K$2.85+$12K+$12K$186.48B
MORGAN STANLEY$10K$1.89+$6K+$3K-0.3%$1.65T
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.38%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.10%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.75%
19 buyers · $0.00B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.74%
5 sellers · $-0.00B out
alpha coverage: 87% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-11.7%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-5.5%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+2.6%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+1.3%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+0.0%
Sellers' overall flow ~ flat.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-1.5%
Holder mid (any stock)
-7.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-8.0%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

02.3M4.7M7.0M9.4M$1.59$1.91$2.22$2.54$2.852021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Dynamic Advisor Solutions LLCWilliams & Novak, LLC2.1MAtria Wealth Solutions, Inc.RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC647KMarex Group plc260KSEI INVESTMENTS CO177KInformed Momentum Co LLC145KBRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC65KCITADEL ADVISORS LLC113KAPIS CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
1
Buy: 1Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2024 Q322M1M-0M$-0.02$-0.02 – $-0.021
2024 Q423M1M-0M$-0.01$-0.01 – $-0.011
2025 Q125M1M0M$0.01$0.01 – $0.011
2025 Q226M1M0M$0.02$0.02 – $0.021
2025 Q322M1M-0M$-0.02$-0.02 – $-0.021
2025 Q422M1M-0M$-0.02$-0.02 – $-0.021
2026 Q122M1M-0M$-0.02$-0.02 – $-0.021
2026 Q223M1M-0M$-0.01$-0.01 – $-0.011
2026 Q325M1M0M$0.01$0.01 – $0.011
2026 Q426M1M0M$0.02$0.02 – $0.021

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$5.6M
Incentive & Other$1.8M
Total Compensation$7.4M
% of Revenue1.9%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$67K
1 txn · 1 insider · 33,925 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2025-06-11SELLPetrie Curtis Sofficer: VP of Administration33,925$1.97$67K$99K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

61.1%retail+4.4pp
5.7%dark-1.9pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%80%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Sypris Electronics$13.4M-16%
Sypris Technologies$12.4M-9%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Sypris Solutions: Survival on Life Support via Related-Party Debt Deferrals

Overall Risk
8/10
Fraud
5/10
Dilution
4/10
Insolvency
9/10
Earnings Overstated
7/10
Hidden Liabilities
6/10
Legal
3/10
Audit Warnings
7/10
Hidden Upside
3/10
Contextually Acceptable
2/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In March 2026, Sypris renewed a multi-decade supply agreement with a global manufacturer for heavy truck drivetrain components, leveraging a 25-year relationship. This follows a major January 2026 expansion of its contract for NASA’s Orion spacecraft (Artemis program), extending its electronics backlog through 2027. Additionally, the company secured a sole-source contract with a global truck OEM in January 2026 for automated manual transmission (AMT) components, a key win driven by North American reshoring trends (Source: Investing.com, Nasdaq).

🐻 Bear Case

The short thesis centers on persistent unprofitability and a significant year-over-year revenue decline (down 19.6% in Q3 2025) caused by an 'anticipated cyclical downturn' in the commercial vehicle market and tariff-related disruptions. Bears argue the recent 61% share price surge is decoupled from fundamentals, as the company carries a high debt-to-equity ratio (133.6x) and remains sensitive to macroeconomic headwinds that necessitated a shift to lower-margin 'sub-maquiladora' operations in Mexico (Source: Simply Wall St, Ticker Nerd).

🚩 Red Flags

Sypris reported a net loss of $2.4 million for the first nine months of 2025. Financial stability has relied on one-time items, such as a $2.5 million gain from a Louisville facility sale-leaseback transaction in late 2025. Furthermore, material availability issues and 'out-of-sequence manufacturing' have recently plagued the Electronics segment, leading to production inefficiencies and compressed gross margins (Source: Sypris Q3 2025 Earnings, Intellectia AI).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Sypris faces intense competition from larger, more capitalized diversified manufacturers like Jabil and Celestica. While Sypris holds sole-source positions, it is vulnerable to pricing pressures from global OEMs and the potential for customers to further vertically integrate or shift production to competitors with less exposure to the Mexico-U.S. tariff environment (Source: Simply Wall St, MarketBeat).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Customer sentiment appears highly resilient among Tier-1 defense and aerospace contractors. The company’s ability to secure follow-on awards for mission-critical systems (Artemis, DoD missile programs, and subsea communications) suggests high trust in their 'high-cost-of-failure' manufacturing capabilities. Commercial truck OEMs also show long-term commitment, as evidenced by the renewal of a 25-year partnership despite broader market volatility (Source: Zacks Investment Research, StockTitan).