Stocks/SRZN

SRZN

Surrozen, Inc.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$26.21
$196M market cap
Claude Rating
2/10SHORT
Revenue
$7.5M
Free Cash Flow
$-33.7M
Rev Growth
+408.6%
FCF Margin
-449.4%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$8.00
Upside
-69.5%

Surrozen, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers and develops drug candidates to selectively modulate the Wnt pathway for tissue repair and regeneration. It is developing tissue-specific antibodies with application across various disease areas, including diseases of the intestine, liver, retina, cornea, lung, kidney, cochlea, skin, pancreas, and central nervous system. Its products in pipeline include SZN-043 a tissue-specific R-spondin mimetic for the treatment of severe liver disease; and SZ

2-Year Price History

$26.37+137.8%
$10$15$20$25$30volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q30.3-12.6---12.9---11.4-0.031.5----------
Est2027-Q20.3-12.0---12.3---10.8-0.042.9----------
Est2027-Q10.3-11.4---11.7---10.2-0.053.7----------
Est2026-Q45.0-9.0---9.5---8.0-0.163.9----------
Est2026-Q30.3-10.8---11.1---9.6-0.071.9----------
Est2026-Q20.3-10.2---10.5---9.0-0.081.5----------
Est2026-Q10.3-9.6---9.9---8.4-0.090.5----------
Act2026-Q15.0-10.4-10.5-127.5-12.5-12.6-0.1106.96.811.0-617.1%----
Est2025-Q40.5-9.0---9.5---8.0-0.098.9----------
Act2025-Q40.5-12.6-12.6-183.2-5.8-5.9-0.189.36.69.1-761.5%----
Act2025-Q31.0-71.6-10.9-71.6-9.0-9.1-0.081.37.18.6-614.8%----
Act2025-Q21.0-8.9-9.039.8-6.1-6.1-0.090.47.58.5-47.7%----
Act2025-Q11.0-9.3-9.6-27.0-9.3-9.3-0.0101.68.03.6-109.1%----
Act2024-Q40.7-8.3-8.6-28.03.53.5-0.034.68.52.9-405.8%----
Act2024-Q310.01.61.2-1.4-6.8-6.8-0.031.01.53.2322.7%----
Act2024-Q20.0-8.7-9.1-25.3-5.6-5.6-0.037.82.23.2<-999%----
Act2024-Q10.0-8.7-9.1-8.8-8.8-8.8-0.027.32.82.1<-999%----
Act2023-Q40.0-9.2-9.7-8.9-7.3-7.3-0.036.03.42.1<-999%----
Act2023-Q30.0-9.2-11.2-10.5-10.1-10.1-0.043.44.02.0<-999%----
Act2023-Q20.0-9.8-10.3-9.4-8.8-8.8-0.153.44.52.0-907.7%----
Act2023-Q10.0-12.9-14.6-14.3-14.2-14.5-0.361.85.12.0<-999%----
Act2022-Q412.5-1.7-2.2-0.8-0.2-0.4-0.275.85.62.0-76.3%----
Act2022-Q30.0-13.1-13.6-13.4-14.2-14.3-0.178.46.12.3-403.5%----
Act2022-Q20.0-13.6-14.1-13.9-11.4-11.4-0.092.76.635.0-212.4%----
Act2022-Q10.0-14.0-14.5-8.0-18.4-18.8-0.492.57.234.9-142.9%----
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20228.73-339.1%-42n/m4.9×
20239.40-100.0%-41n/m
202414.35-226.2%-24n/mn/mn/m3.0×
202522.60-67.4%-2942.6%-102n/mn/mn/m33.5×
TTM26.21-35.6%-1380.4%-1030.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E26.21-21.3%-6.7%-00.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude2/10SHORTFV: $8.00

Surrozen is a high-risk, pre-revenue biotech that failed its lead program (SZN-043 liver), pivoted to ophthalmology with no clinical-stage assets, and funded itself through a toxic PIPE that generated a $71M loss on execution and massive dilution. The TCGFB collaboration termination eliminates the only recurring revenue. The stock trades at $226M market cap on pure option value of the Wnt platform and a Boehringer partnership with up to $587M in constrained milestones. While insider buying is notable, the 165% annual dilution rate, binary FDA-contingent second tranche, and intense competition in ophthalmology from anti-VEGF therapies make this a poor risk/reward for fundamental investors. DCF is meaningless here — this is a binary biotech bet with significant structural disadvantages for common shareholders due to warrant overhang and tranche liabilities.

Catalyst Positive IND filing and Phase 1 data in ophthalmology (SZN-413 or related program) could validate the pivot; Boehringer milestone payments could provide near-term upside surprise
Risk Second PIPE tranche is contingent on FDA clearance — failure to obtain it creates a liquidity crisis within 12-18 months, likely forcing further dilutive financing or worse
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
2/10
Exp. Move
-8.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$26.21
Market Cap$196M
Enterprise Value$96M
P/S Ratio26.1x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-449.4%
FCF Yield-17.2%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution201.8%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$7.5M
Net Income$-342.6M
Free Cash Flow$-33.7M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+408.6%
EBITDA Margin-1380.4%
Net Margin-4571.1%
FCF Margin-449.4%
CapEx % of Revenue2.9%
SBC % of Revenue40.0%
ROIC-510.3%
WC Change % Rev-23.8%
Interest Coverage--

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$-3.82
-114.6% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$-418M
− Net Debt$-100M
= Fair Equity$-42M
Revenue Growth30.0% → 1.0%
FCF Margin-449.4% → -500.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float17.3%
Short Shares0.6M
Days to Cover4.7
Change (vs Prior)+30.1%
Short % Float History
17.30%+15.80pp
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-81.3%
Forward FCF Margin-2500.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin-2828.6%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds30%
Est. Borrow Rate100.0%
Terminal EV/FCF5.0x
LT Growth0.0%
LT FCF Margin-500.0%

Employees

Headcount40
Revenue / Employee$187,350
Gross Profit / Employee$185,725
2022: 74 → 2023: 42 → 2024: 40 → 2025: 44 (-16% CAGR)

Cash Runway

38.1months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 87.5% of float, sold 28.2%. 10 filers moved >1% of shares (6 buying, 4 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+59.3% of float (net)
Bought 87.5% · Sold 28.2%
57 filers reported (last quarter: 54)

Ownership composition

Active
27.4%(+18.8% YoY)
1 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
0 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
0 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
2.6%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Column Group LLC$55.8M$13.98+$1.9M+$12.2M-4.1%$101M
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
-6.58%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-4.08%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-6.58%
1 buyers · $0.01B in
Sellers (this Q)
+0.00%
0 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+10.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-1.4%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-12.1%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-14.4%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+0.0%
Sellers' overall flow ~ flat.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
+3.3%
Holder mid (any stock)
-16.5%
Holder rally (any stock)
-5.5%

Top-5 holders · 100.0%

Column Group LLC--

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

05.1M10.2M15.2M20.3M$7.35$17$26$36$452021-092022-092023-092024-092025-092026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Column Group LLC1.9MConsonance Capital Management LPBAKER BROS. ADVISORS LPHHLR ADVISORS, LTD.HARVARD MANAGEMENT CO INCBoard of Trustees of The Leland Stanford Junior UniversityEuclidean Capital LLCTrustees of Columbia University in the City of New YorkBRIDGER MANAGEMENT, LLCEmpery Asset Management, LP

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (1 analysts)$44.006790.0%
Last Year (2 analysts)$42.006020.0%
Current Price$26.21
Analyst Ratings
4
2
Buy: 4Sell: 2Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q31M0M-10M$-1.14$-1.14 – $-1.141
2025 Q41M-0M-14M$-1.29$-1.45 – $-1.122
2026 Q14M-1M-12M$-1.09$-1.62 – $-0.572
2026 Q20M-0M-14M$-1.29$-1.37 – $-1.192
2026 Q30M-0M-13M$-1.22$-1.35 – $-1.082
2026 Q40M-0M-10M$-0.93$-0.93 – $-0.931
2027 Q11M-0M-13M$-1.23$-1.23 – $-1.231
2027 Q21M-0M-14M$-1.25$-1.25 – $-1.251
2027 Q31M-0M-14M$-1.29$-1.29 – $-1.291
2027 Q41M-0M-15M$-1.33$-1.33 – $-1.331

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$8.3M
Incentive & Other$9.6M
Total Compensation$17.9M
% of Revenue93.7%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$325K
5 txns · 3 insiders · 10,828 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$16.85M
28 txns · 3 insiders · 1,033,505 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-04SELLLi Yangofficer: Exec. Vice President, Research1,584$33.33$53K$574K
2026-05-04SELLParker Craig Cdirector, officer: Chief Executive Officer4,524$33.33$151K$552K
2026-05-04SELLWilliams Charles Oofficer: Chief Operating Officer2,036$33.33$68K$552K
2026-03-24BUYTCG Crossover GP II, LLC10 percent owner106,658$24.69$2.63M$18.19M
2026-03-23BUYTCG Crossover GP II, LLC10 percent owner15,223$24.90$379K$17.01M
2026-03-16BUYTCG Crossover GP II, LLC10 percent owner1,190$24.99$30K$16.88M
2026-03-13BUYTCG Crossover GP II, LLC10 percent owner35,433$24.88$881K$16.79M
2026-03-12BUYTCG Crossover GP II, LLC10 percent owner12,374$24.99$309K$16.42M
2026-02-12BUYTCG Crossover GP II, LLC10 percent owner1,093$23.86$26K$15.54M
2026-02-11BUYTCG Crossover GP II, LLC10 percent owner17,763$23.57$419K$15.34M
2026-02-03BUYTCG Crossover GP II, LLC10 percent owner4,355$21.94$96K$14.08M
2026-02-02BUYTCG Crossover GP II, LLC10 percent owner731$21.38$16K$13.67M
2026-01-30BUYTCG Crossover GP II, LLC10 percent owner4,271$21.39$91K$13.67M
2026-01-20BUYCOLUMN GROUP III GP, LP10 percent owner18,052$19.60$354K$19.93M
2026-01-20BUYKutzkey Timdirector, 10 percent owner: 18,052$19.60$354K$19.93M
2026-01-16BUYKutzkey Timdirector, 10 percent owner: 2,562$20.00$51K$20.14M
2026-01-16BUYCOLUMN GROUP III GP, LP10 percent owner2,562$20.00$51K$20.14M
2026-01-15BUYCOLUMN GROUP III GP, LP10 percent owner11,893$19.89$237K$20.00M
2026-01-15BUYKutzkey Timdirector, 10 percent owner: 11,893$19.89$237K$20.00M
2026-01-14BUYCOLUMN GROUP III GP, LP10 percent owner5,523$19.99$110K$19.98M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

43.9%retail+6.6pp
17.6%dark-4.0pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%80%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Collaboration and license revenue$5.0MNEW
By Geography (2026-Q1)
GERMANY$5.0MNEW

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Surrozen, Inc.: Massive Derivative Liabilities Masking Clinical Progress

Overall Risk
8/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
10/10
Insolvency
7/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
9/10
Legal
4/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
5/10
Contextually Acceptable
3/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In February 2026, Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded SRZN to a 'Strong-Buy' with a $40 price target, citing a 48% upside. This follows a massive $175M private placement in 2025 that shifted the company's focus to ophthalmology. Additionally, a major milestone payment was recognized from their strategic partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) for SZN-413, which is targeting retinal vascular diseases (MarketBeat, Feb 2026; Nasdaq, Feb 2026).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear thesis centers on the failure of Surrozen's lead liver candidate, SZN-043, which was discontinued in March 2025 due to 'insufficient clinical benefit' in Phase 1b trials. Shorts argue the company is now a high-burn, early-stage biotech with no clinical-stage assets, following a 1-for-15 reverse split in late 2023 that decimated long-term shareholder value (Fierce Biotech, March 2025; Clinical Trials Arena, March 2025).

🚩 Red Flags

The company reported a substantial net loss of $27.0 million in early 2025, and analysts highlight 'weak fundamentals' including sharp revenue contraction and persistent negative equity. There was also a notable resignation of board member Shao-Lee Lin in February 2026, though the company clarified it was not due to operational disagreements (Public.com; TipRanks, Feb 2026).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Surrozen face intense competition in the ophthalmology space from established blockbuster drugs for wet AMD and diabetic macular edema (DME). While their Wnt-modulating approach is novel, they must prove differentiation against anti-VEGF therapies in a market where pricing strategies and market-size capture are increasingly difficult for micro-cap firms (Public.com; Investing.com).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among high-conviction investors is surprisingly bullish; insiders bought approximately $17.8M worth of shares in early 2026, with 14 different insiders participating. Institutional ownership remains high at 66.57%, suggesting that 'smart money' (including Venrock and Column Group) is doubling down on the ophthalmology pivot despite the liver program failure (MarketBeat, March 2026; StockInvest.us, March 2026).