Surrozen, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers and develops drug candidates to selectively modulate the Wnt pathway for tissue repair and regeneration. It is developing tissue-specific antibodies with application across various disease areas, including diseases of the intestine, liver, retina, cornea, lung, kidney, cochlea, skin, pancreas, and central nervous system. Its products in pipeline include SZN-043 a tissue-specific R-spondin mimetic for the treatment of severe liver disease; and SZ
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 0.3 | -12.6 | -- | -12.9 | -- | -11.4 | -0.0 | 31.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 0.3 | -12.0 | -- | -12.3 | -- | -10.8 | -0.0 | 42.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 0.3 | -11.4 | -- | -11.7 | -- | -10.2 | -0.0 | 53.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 5.0 | -9.0 | -- | -9.5 | -- | -8.0 | -0.1 | 63.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 0.3 | -10.8 | -- | -11.1 | -- | -9.6 | -0.0 | 71.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.3 | -10.2 | -- | -10.5 | -- | -9.0 | -0.0 | 81.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.3 | -9.6 | -- | -9.9 | -- | -8.4 | -0.0 | 90.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 5.0 | -10.4 | -10.5 | -127.5 | -12.5 | -12.6 | -0.1 | 106.9 | 6.8 | 11.0 | -617.1% | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 0.5 | -9.0 | -- | -9.5 | -- | -8.0 | -0.0 | 98.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.5 | -12.6 | -12.6 | -183.2 | -5.8 | -5.9 | -0.1 | 89.3 | 6.6 | 9.1 | -761.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 1.0 | -71.6 | -10.9 | -71.6 | -9.0 | -9.1 | -0.0 | 81.3 | 7.1 | 8.6 | -614.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 1.0 | -8.9 | -9.0 | 39.8 | -6.1 | -6.1 | -0.0 | 90.4 | 7.5 | 8.5 | -47.7% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 1.0 | -9.3 | -9.6 | -27.0 | -9.3 | -9.3 | -0.0 | 101.6 | 8.0 | 3.6 | -109.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 0.7 | -8.3 | -8.6 | -28.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.0 | 34.6 | 8.5 | 2.9 | -405.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 10.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -1.4 | -6.8 | -6.8 | -0.0 | 31.0 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 322.7% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.0 | -8.7 | -9.1 | -25.3 | -5.6 | -5.6 | -0.0 | 37.8 | 2.2 | 3.2 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.0 | -8.7 | -9.1 | -8.8 | -8.8 | -8.8 | -0.0 | 27.3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 0.0 | -9.2 | -9.7 | -8.9 | -7.3 | -7.3 | -0.0 | 36.0 | 3.4 | 2.1 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 0.0 | -9.2 | -11.2 | -10.5 | -10.1 | -10.1 | -0.0 | 43.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.0 | -9.8 | -10.3 | -9.4 | -8.8 | -8.8 | -0.1 | 53.4 | 4.5 | 2.0 | -907.7% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 0.0 | -12.9 | -14.6 | -14.3 | -14.2 | -14.5 | -0.3 | 61.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 12.5 | -1.7 | -2.2 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 75.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | -76.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 0.0 | -13.1 | -13.6 | -13.4 | -14.2 | -14.3 | -0.1 | 78.4 | 6.1 | 2.3 | -403.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.0 | -13.6 | -14.1 | -13.9 | -11.4 | -11.4 | -0.0 | 92.7 | 6.6 | 35.0 | -212.4% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 0.0 | -14.0 | -14.5 | -8.0 | -18.4 | -18.8 | -0.4 | 92.5 | 7.2 | 34.9 | -142.9% | -- | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8.73 | — | -339.1% | -42 | — | — | n/m | 4.9× |
| 2023 | 9.40 | -100.0% | — | -41 | — | — | n/m | — |
| 2024 | 14.35 | — | -226.2% | -24 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 3.0× |
| 2025 | 22.60 | -67.4% | -2942.6% | -102 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 33.5× |
| TTM | 26.21 | -35.6% | -1380.4% | -103 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 26.21 | -21.3% | -6.7% | -0 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Surrozen is a high-risk, pre-revenue biotech that failed its lead program (SZN-043 liver), pivoted to ophthalmology with no clinical-stage assets, and funded itself through a toxic PIPE that generated a $71M loss on execution and massive dilution. The TCGFB collaboration termination eliminates the only recurring revenue. The stock trades at $226M market cap on pure option value of the Wnt platform and a Boehringer partnership with up to $587M in constrained milestones. While insider buying is notable, the 165% annual dilution rate, binary FDA-contingent second tranche, and intense competition in ophthalmology from anti-VEGF therapies make this a poor risk/reward for fundamental investors. DCF is meaningless here — this is a binary biotech bet with significant structural disadvantages for common shareholders due to warrant overhang and tranche liabilities.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 87.5% of float, sold 28.2%. 10 filers moved >1% of shares (6 buying, 4 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Column Group LLC | $55.8M | $13.98 | +$1.9M | +$12.2M | -4.1% | $101M |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Top-5 holders · 100.0%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 1M | 0M | -10M | $-1.14 | $-1.14 – $-1.14 | 1 |
| 2025 Q4 | 1M | -0M | -14M | $-1.29 | $-1.45 – $-1.12 | 2 |
| 2026 Q1 | 4M | -1M | -12M | $-1.09 | $-1.62 – $-0.57 | 2 |
| 2026 Q2 | 0M | -0M | -14M | $-1.29 | $-1.37 – $-1.19 | 2 |
| 2026 Q3 | 0M | -0M | -13M | $-1.22 | $-1.35 – $-1.08 | 2 |
| 2026 Q4 | 0M | -0M | -10M | $-0.93 | $-0.93 – $-0.93 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 1M | -0M | -13M | $-1.23 | $-1.23 – $-1.23 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 1M | -0M | -14M | $-1.25 | $-1.25 – $-1.25 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 1M | -0M | -14M | $-1.29 | $-1.29 – $-1.29 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 1M | -0M | -15M | $-1.33 | $-1.33 – $-1.33 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | SELL | Li Yang | officer: Exec. Vice President, Research | 1,584 | $33.33 | $53K | $574K |
| 2026-05-04 | SELL | Parker Craig C | director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | 4,524 | $33.33 | $151K | $552K |
| 2026-05-04 | SELL | Williams Charles O | officer: Chief Operating Officer | 2,036 | $33.33 | $68K | $552K |
| 2026-03-24 | BUY | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | 10 percent owner | 106,658 | $24.69 | $2.63M | $18.19M |
| 2026-03-23 | BUY | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | 10 percent owner | 15,223 | $24.90 | $379K | $17.01M |
| 2026-03-16 | BUY | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | 10 percent owner | 1,190 | $24.99 | $30K | $16.88M |
| 2026-03-13 | BUY | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | 10 percent owner | 35,433 | $24.88 | $881K | $16.79M |
| 2026-03-12 | BUY | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | 10 percent owner | 12,374 | $24.99 | $309K | $16.42M |
| 2026-02-12 | BUY | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | 10 percent owner | 1,093 | $23.86 | $26K | $15.54M |
| 2026-02-11 | BUY | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | 10 percent owner | 17,763 | $23.57 | $419K | $15.34M |
| 2026-02-03 | BUY | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | 10 percent owner | 4,355 | $21.94 | $96K | $14.08M |
| 2026-02-02 | BUY | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | 10 percent owner | 731 | $21.38 | $16K | $13.67M |
| 2026-01-30 | BUY | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | 10 percent owner | 4,271 | $21.39 | $91K | $13.67M |
| 2026-01-20 | BUY | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | 10 percent owner | 18,052 | $19.60 | $354K | $19.93M |
| 2026-01-20 | BUY | Kutzkey Tim | director, 10 percent owner: | 18,052 | $19.60 | $354K | $19.93M |
| 2026-01-16 | BUY | Kutzkey Tim | director, 10 percent owner: | 2,562 | $20.00 | $51K | $20.14M |
| 2026-01-16 | BUY | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | 10 percent owner | 2,562 | $20.00 | $51K | $20.14M |
| 2026-01-15 | BUY | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | 10 percent owner | 11,893 | $19.89 | $237K | $20.00M |
| 2026-01-15 | BUY | Kutzkey Tim | director, 10 percent owner: | 11,893 | $19.89 | $237K | $20.00M |
| 2026-01-14 | BUY | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | 10 percent owner | 5,523 | $19.99 | $110K | $19.98M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Collaboration and license revenue | $5.0M | NEW |
| GERMANY | $5.0M | NEW |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Surrozen, Inc.: Massive Derivative Liabilities Masking Clinical Progress
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In February 2026, Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded SRZN to a 'Strong-Buy' with a $40 price target, citing a 48% upside. This follows a massive $175M private placement in 2025 that shifted the company's focus to ophthalmology. Additionally, a major milestone payment was recognized from their strategic partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) for SZN-413, which is targeting retinal vascular diseases (MarketBeat, Feb 2026; Nasdaq, Feb 2026).
The bear thesis centers on the failure of Surrozen's lead liver candidate, SZN-043, which was discontinued in March 2025 due to 'insufficient clinical benefit' in Phase 1b trials. Shorts argue the company is now a high-burn, early-stage biotech with no clinical-stage assets, following a 1-for-15 reverse split in late 2023 that decimated long-term shareholder value (Fierce Biotech, March 2025; Clinical Trials Arena, March 2025).
The company reported a substantial net loss of $27.0 million in early 2025, and analysts highlight 'weak fundamentals' including sharp revenue contraction and persistent negative equity. There was also a notable resignation of board member Shao-Lee Lin in February 2026, though the company clarified it was not due to operational disagreements (Public.com; TipRanks, Feb 2026).
Surrozen face intense competition in the ophthalmology space from established blockbuster drugs for wet AMD and diabetic macular edema (DME). While their Wnt-modulating approach is novel, they must prove differentiation against anti-VEGF therapies in a market where pricing strategies and market-size capture are increasingly difficult for micro-cap firms (Public.com; Investing.com).
Sentiment among high-conviction investors is surprisingly bullish; insiders bought approximately $17.8M worth of shares in early 2026, with 14 different insiders participating. Institutional ownership remains high at 66.57%, suggesting that 'smart money' (including Venrock and Column Group) is doubling down on the ophthalmology pivot despite the liver program failure (MarketBeat, March 2026; StockInvest.us, March 2026).