Stocks/SLS

SLS

SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$9.31
$1.3B market cap
Claude Rating
4/10UNDERWEIGHT
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-28.2M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$4.50
Upside
-51.7%

SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc., a late-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of novel cancer immunotherapies for various cancer indications in the United States. Its lead product candidate is galinpepimut-S (GPS), a cancer immunotherapeutic agent that targets Wilms tumor 1, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia; and in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for the treatment for ovarian cancer. The company also develops nelipepimut-S, a canc

2-Year Price History

$7.78+436.6%
$1.0$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.0$6.0$7.0volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0107.2----------
Est2027-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0107.2----------
Est2027-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0107.2----------
Est2026-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0107.2----------
Est2026-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0107.2----------
Est2026-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0107.2----------
Est2026-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0107.2----------
Act2026-Q10.0-9.3-9.3-8.4-8.9-8.9-0.0107.20.9172.5-33.0%----
Est2025-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0107.2----------
Act2025-Q40.0-8.3-8.3-7.7-4.9-4.9-0.071.91.0153.1-42.9%----
Act2025-Q30.00.3-7.1-6.8-7.1-7.1-0.044.40.6108.4-54.4%----
Act2025-Q20.0-6.6-6.9-6.6-7.3-7.3-0.025.30.798.6-82.6%----
Act2025-Q10.0-6.1-6.1-5.8-9.1-9.1-0.028.40.987.8-68.2%----
Act2024-Q40.0-16.4-6.9-6.7-7.2-7.2-0.013.91.074.0-156.8%----
Act2024-Q30.0-7.3-7.3-7.1-7.8-7.8-0.021.00.668.3-122.1%----
Act2024-Q20.0-7.6-7.6-7.5-9.7-9.7-0.09.20.757.6-269.5%----
Act2024-Q10.0-9.6-9.6-9.6-10.8-10.8-0.018.40.844.8-209.0%----
Act2023-Q40.0-8.1-8.2-8.1-4.8-10.3-5.52.50.930.8<-999%----
Act2023-Q30.0-9.3-9.4-9.3-6.9-9.9-3.04.00.628.4<-999%----
Act2023-Q20.0-9.1-9.1-8.8-7.6-7.6-0.013.80.828.4<-999%----
Act2023-Q10.0-11.3-11.3-11.1-12.1-12.1-0.023.90.923.6-415.6%----
Act2022-Q40.0-9.0-9.5-9.1-5.2-9.7-4.517.10.920.8<-999%----
Act2022-Q30.0-7.2-7.2-7.0-5.8-5.8-0.021.41.020.6-268.5%----
Act2022-Q20.0-8.6-8.6-8.4-5.8-5.8-0.027.01.120.3-197.7%----
Act2022-Q11.0-16.7-6.7-16.7-7.2-7.2-0.014.31.215.9<-999%----
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20222.36-4146.6%-41n/mn/mn/m42.0×
20231.06-100.0%-38n/mn/mn/m
20241.04-41n/mn/mn/m
20253.77-21n/mn/mn/m
TTM9.31-240.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E9.310

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude4/10UNDERWEIGHTFV: $4.50

SELLAS is a pure binary biotech bet trading at ~$870M market cap with zero revenue, ~$44M cash, 30% short interest, and massive ongoing dilution. The bull case rests entirely on the REGAL Phase 3 OS readout (expected H1 2026) where the slowing event rate is a genuinely encouraging signal that GPS may extend survival in AML maintenance. The 3D Medicines arbitration ($191.5M in potential milestones) provides additional optionality. However, at nearly $900M market cap for a pre-revenue company burning $7M/quarter with 58.8% annual dilution, 64M warrants outstanding, and 70M shares reserved for future issuance, the risk/reward is skewed negatively for new money. The retail euphoria and >1000% social volume surge suggest much of the positive REGAL signal is already priced in. If the trial succeeds, there is upside, but the current valuation already reflects meaningful probability of success. If it fails, the stock goes to sub-$1. This is not investable on fundamentals — it is a casino ticket with unfavorable odds at current prices.

Catalyst REGAL Phase 3 overall survival readout (expected H1 2026) is the single most important catalyst. Secondary: 3D Medicines arbitration resolution, SLS009 Phase 2 data expansion.
Risk REGAL trial fails to meet its primary OS endpoint, which would likely result in 70-85% downside given zero revenue and no near-term commercial path.
Trend
STABLE
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-2.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$9.31
Market Cap$1.3B
Enterprise Value$1.2B
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-2.1%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution96.5%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-29.5M
Free Cash Flow$-28.2M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-53.2%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage--

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$0.62
-93.4% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$-106M
= Fair Equity$106M
Revenue Growth0.0% → 5.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → 10.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float40.8%
Short Shares57.2M
Days to Cover11.7
Change (vs Prior)+0.9%
Short % Float History
40.80%+35.30pp
10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)192%
Put IV (ATM)224%
ATM Spread12.2%
Call $OI (near money)$97.9M
Put $OI (near money)$10.2M
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$8.0
Major Expirations5
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$5.00$3.30/$4.0014,325$0.85/$1.15793
$5.50$2.90/$3.902,630$0.70/$1.70315
$6.00$2.70/$3.207,241$1.30/$1.502,842
$7.00$2.50/$2.803,858$1.85/$2.302,687
$8.00$1.75/$2.704,272$2.50/$3.00444
$9.00$1.65/$2.201,580$3.10/$3.70596
$10.00$1.55/$2.0013,094$4.00/$4.70538
$11.00$1.50/$2.3095$4.70/$5.20188
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin0.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds30%
Est. Borrow Rate100.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x
LT Growth5.0%
LT FCF Margin10.0%

Employees

Headcount15
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$0
2022: 17 → 2023: 16 → 2024: 15 → 2025: 13 (-9% CAGR)

Cash Runway

45.7months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 15.7% of float, sold 2.8%. 2 filers moved >1% of shares (2 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+12.9% of float (net)
Bought 15.7% · Sold 2.8%
107 filers reported (last quarter: 128)

Ownership composition

Active
6.8%(+5.9% YoY)
143 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
14.3%(+13.8% YoY)
8 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.3%(+0.2% YoY)
6 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
1.7%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$51.6M$3.11+$19.7M+$49.3M-0.2%$5.69T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$35.5M$3.83+$26.3M+$34.3M-0.2%$2.89T
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$31.8M$4.23+$31.8M+$31.8M$4.04T
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$16.6M$2.81+$3.5M+$13.1M+2.3%$1.61T
MARSHALL WACE, LLP$8.6M$2.61+$2.9M+$8.6M+0.6%$92.71B
JONES FINANCIAL COMPANIES LLLP$7.3M$4.11+$5.3M+$7.3M-0.1%$208.07B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$6.2M$4.23+$6.2M+$6.2M$1.91T
MORGAN STANLEY$5.7M$2.73+$1.9M+$5.4M-0.3%$1.65T
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$5.4M$2.87+$1.5M+$4.7M-0.2%$755.34B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$5.1M$4.23+$5.1M+$5.1M$395.83B
DAGCO, INC.$4.4M$3.97+$1.9M+$4.4M-0.3%$461M
UBS Group AG$3.2M$3.38+$2.9M+$2.9M-0.3%$562.11B
Invesco Ltd.$3.0M$4.08+$2.7M+$3.0M-0.2%$652.04B
Nuveen, LLC$2.8M$2.22−$1.5M+$2.8M+0.0%$368.63B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$2.7M$4.04+$2.3M+$2.7M-0.1%$1.36T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$2.4M$3.08+$610K+$2.4M-0.2%$760.93B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$2.0M$2.87+$305K+$2.0M+0.7%$645.81B
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$2.0M$3.19+$939K+$2.0M-0.2%$543.21B
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$1.7M$3.42−$2.9M+$1.5M-0.9%$117.03B
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM$1.7M$1.81+$200K−$1.2M-0.6%$77.14B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.10%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.10%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.05%
116 buyers · $0.14B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.74%
21 sellers · $0.01B out
alpha coverage: 81% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-7.7%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-5.2%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+3.5%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+3.5%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+20.9%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-4.2%
Holder mid (any stock)
-4.3%
Holder rally (any stock)
-3.4%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

02.8M5.5M8.3M11.0M$1.01$2.43$3.84$5.26$6.682021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Anson Funds Management LPMARSHALL WACE, LLP2.0MJONES FINANCIAL COMPANIES LLLP1.7MMORGAN STANLEY1.3MMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC160KDAGCO, INC.1.0MTWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP403KNuveen, LLC671KUBS Group AG745KInvesco Ltd.698K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
5
Buy: 5Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2015 Q23M-14M-14M$-1.68$-2.02 – $-1.347
2021 Q17M-3M-3M$-0.18$-0.18 – $-0.181
2023 Q313M-3M2M$0.02$-0.19 – $0.094
2023 Q413M-3M9M$0.09$0.09 – $0.094
2025 Q30M0M-8M$-0.08$-0.10 – $-0.063
2025 Q40M0M-10M$-0.06$-0.09 – $-0.053
2026 Q10M0M-10M$-0.06$-0.08 – $-0.042
2026 Q20M0M-9M$-0.05$-0.05 – $-0.052
2026 Q30M0M-9M$-0.06$-0.06 – $-0.052
2026 Q436M7M-9M$-0.06$-0.06 – $-0.061

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$9.3M
Incentive & Other$6.4M
Total Compensation$15.7M
% of Revenue0.0%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$149K
3 txns · 3 insiders · 93,400 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2025-11-19BUYKalin Katherine Bachdirector63,400$1.59$101K$166K
2025-06-12BUYVAN NOSTRAND ROBERT Ldirector10,000$1.48$15K$30K
2025-05-30BUYWasman Janedirector20,000$1.69$34K$51K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

46.1%retail-3.4pp
10.3%dark+2.0pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

SELLAS Life Sciences: Dilution-Driven Liquidity Amidst Arduous Arbitration

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
9/10
Insolvency
4/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
5/10
Legal
7/10
Audit Warnings
4/10
Hidden Upside
6/10
Contextually Acceptable
5/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

As of March 2026, SELLAS is approaching the final readout for its pivotal Phase 3 REGAL trial of galinpepimut-S (GPS) in AML. In December 2025, the company reported 72 of the required 80 'events' (deaths) had occurred. Additionally, Phase 2 data for SLS009 presented at ASH 2025 showed a 46% overall response rate in relapsed/refractory AML-MR patients, significantly outperforming historical benchmarks (Source: Seeking Alpha, Stocktwits).

🐻 Bear Case

Bears argue that SLS is a high-risk binary play with no revenue and a history of dilution. However, they may be missing the 'deceleration' signal in the REGAL trial: the time to reach the final 80 events has taken longer than statistically expected, which historically correlates with extended overall survival (mOS) for the treatment arm. While bears anticipate failure based on past WT1-targeting vaccines, the current mOS in the REGAL trial appears to be tracking well above the 8-month historical benchmark for CR2 patients (Source: Reddit Deep Due Diligence, Maxim Group).

🚩 Red Flags

Despite recent momentum, the stock faces significant binary risk; if the REGAL trial fails to meet its primary endpoint of overall survival, the company's valuation could collapse. Furthermore, while recent warrant exercises raised $54.6M, the company has a long-standing history of capital raises that have historically diluted long-term shareholders (Source: Simply Wall St, StockTitan).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

SLS faces competition from established AML maintenance therapies and other CDK9 inhibitors in development. The primary threat remains the standard of care, Azacitidine and Venetoclax (AZA/VEN), although SLS009 is specifically being positioned as a solution for patients who have already failed or become resistant to AZA/VEN regimens (Source: MedPath, Nasdaq).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Retail sentiment is 'extremely bullish,' with social volume on platforms like Stocktwits surging over 1,000% in early 2026. Many investors are using 'cure rate' models to suggest the trial's success is statistically probable due to the slow event rate. Medical sentiment is also supported by the addition of world-renowned hematology experts to the Scientific Advisory Board in late 2025 (Source: Stocktwits, StockTitan).