SLS
SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc.SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc., a late-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of novel cancer immunotherapies for various cancer indications in the United States. Its lead product candidate is galinpepimut-S (GPS), a cancer immunotherapeutic agent that targets Wilms tumor 1, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia; and in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for the treatment for ovarian cancer. The company also develops nelipepimut-S, a canc
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 107.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 107.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 107.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 107.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 107.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 107.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 107.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | -9.3 | -9.3 | -8.4 | -8.9 | -8.9 | -0.0 | 107.2 | 0.9 | 172.5 | -33.0% | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 107.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -8.3 | -8.3 | -7.7 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -0.0 | 71.9 | 1.0 | 153.1 | -42.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -7.1 | -6.8 | -7.1 | -7.1 | -0.0 | 44.4 | 0.6 | 108.4 | -54.4% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.0 | -6.6 | -6.9 | -6.6 | -7.3 | -7.3 | -0.0 | 25.3 | 0.7 | 98.6 | -82.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 0.0 | -6.1 | -6.1 | -5.8 | -9.1 | -9.1 | -0.0 | 28.4 | 0.9 | 87.8 | -68.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 0.0 | -16.4 | -6.9 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.2 | -0.0 | 13.9 | 1.0 | 74.0 | -156.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 0.0 | -7.3 | -7.3 | -7.1 | -7.8 | -7.8 | -0.0 | 21.0 | 0.6 | 68.3 | -122.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.0 | -7.6 | -7.6 | -7.5 | -9.7 | -9.7 | -0.0 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 57.6 | -269.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.0 | -9.6 | -9.6 | -9.6 | -10.8 | -10.8 | -0.0 | 18.4 | 0.8 | 44.8 | -209.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 0.0 | -8.1 | -8.2 | -8.1 | -4.8 | -10.3 | -5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 30.8 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 0.0 | -9.3 | -9.4 | -9.3 | -6.9 | -9.9 | -3.0 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 28.4 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.0 | -9.1 | -9.1 | -8.8 | -7.6 | -7.6 | -0.0 | 13.8 | 0.8 | 28.4 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 0.0 | -11.3 | -11.3 | -11.1 | -12.1 | -12.1 | -0.0 | 23.9 | 0.9 | 23.6 | -415.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 0.0 | -9.0 | -9.5 | -9.1 | -5.2 | -9.7 | -4.5 | 17.1 | 0.9 | 20.8 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 0.0 | -7.2 | -7.2 | -7.0 | -5.8 | -5.8 | -0.0 | 21.4 | 1.0 | 20.6 | -268.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.0 | -8.6 | -8.6 | -8.4 | -5.8 | -5.8 | -0.0 | 27.0 | 1.1 | 20.3 | -197.7% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 1.0 | -16.7 | -6.7 | -16.7 | -7.2 | -7.2 | -0.0 | 14.3 | 1.2 | 15.9 | <-999% | -- | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.36 | — | -4146.6% | -41 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 42.0× |
| 2023 | 1.06 | -100.0% | — | -38 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| 2024 | 1.04 | — | — | -41 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| 2025 | 3.77 | — | — | -21 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| TTM | 9.31 | — | — | -24 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | — |
| 2026E | 9.31 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
SELLAS is a pure binary biotech bet trading at ~$870M market cap with zero revenue, ~$44M cash, 30% short interest, and massive ongoing dilution. The bull case rests entirely on the REGAL Phase 3 OS readout (expected H1 2026) where the slowing event rate is a genuinely encouraging signal that GPS may extend survival in AML maintenance. The 3D Medicines arbitration ($191.5M in potential milestones) provides additional optionality. However, at nearly $900M market cap for a pre-revenue company burning $7M/quarter with 58.8% annual dilution, 64M warrants outstanding, and 70M shares reserved for future issuance, the risk/reward is skewed negatively for new money. The retail euphoria and >1000% social volume surge suggest much of the positive REGAL signal is already priced in. If the trial succeeds, there is upside, but the current valuation already reflects meaningful probability of success. If it fails, the stock goes to sub-$1. This is not investable on fundamentals — it is a casino ticket with unfavorable odds at current prices.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5.00 | $3.30/$4.00 | 14,325 | $0.85/$1.15 | 793 |
| $5.50 | $2.90/$3.90 | 2,630 | $0.70/$1.70 | 315 |
| $6.00 | $2.70/$3.20 | 7,241 | $1.30/$1.50 | 2,842 |
| $7.00 | $2.50/$2.80 | 3,858 | $1.85/$2.30 | 2,687 |
| $8.00 | $1.75/$2.70 | 4,272 | $2.50/$3.00 | 444 |
| $9.00 | $1.65/$2.20 | 1,580 | $3.10/$3.70 | 596 |
| $10.00 | $1.55/$2.00 | 13,094 | $4.00/$4.70 | 538 |
| $11.00 | $1.50/$2.30 | 95 | $4.70/$5.20 | 188 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 15.7% of float, sold 2.8%. 2 filers moved >1% of shares (2 buying, 0 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $51.6M | $3.11 | +$19.7M | +$49.3M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $35.5M | $3.83 | +$26.3M | +$34.3M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $31.8M | $4.23 | +$31.8M | +$31.8M | — | $4.04T |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $16.6M | $2.81 | +$3.5M | +$13.1M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | $8.6M | $2.61 | +$2.9M | +$8.6M | +0.6% | $92.71B |
| JONES FINANCIAL COMPANIES LLLP | $7.3M | $4.11 | +$5.3M | +$7.3M | -0.1% | $208.07B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $6.2M | $4.23 | +$6.2M | +$6.2M | — | $1.91T |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $5.7M | $2.73 | +$1.9M | +$5.4M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $5.4M | $2.87 | +$1.5M | +$4.7M | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $5.1M | $4.23 | +$5.1M | +$5.1M | — | $395.83B |
| DAGCO, INC. | $4.4M | $3.97 | +$1.9M | +$4.4M | -0.3% | $461M |
| UBS Group AG | $3.2M | $3.38 | +$2.9M | +$2.9M | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| Invesco Ltd. | $3.0M | $4.08 | +$2.7M | +$3.0M | -0.2% | $652.04B |
| Nuveen, LLC | $2.8M | $2.22 | −$1.5M | +$2.8M | +0.0% | $368.63B |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $2.7M | $4.04 | +$2.3M | +$2.7M | -0.1% | $1.36T |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $2.4M | $3.08 | +$610K | +$2.4M | -0.2% | $760.93B |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $2.0M | $2.87 | +$305K | +$2.0M | +0.7% | $645.81B |
| Bank of New York Mellon Corp | $2.0M | $3.19 | +$939K | +$2.0M | -0.2% | $543.21B |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $1.7M | $3.42 | −$2.9M | +$1.5M | -0.9% | $117.03B |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM | $1.7M | $1.81 | +$200K | −$1.2M | -0.6% | $77.14B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 63.2%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Q2 | 3M | -14M | -14M | $-1.68 | $-2.02 – $-1.34 | 7 |
| 2021 Q1 | 7M | -3M | -3M | $-0.18 | $-0.18 – $-0.18 | 1 |
| 2023 Q3 | 13M | -3M | 2M | $0.02 | $-0.19 – $0.09 | 4 |
| 2023 Q4 | 13M | -3M | 9M | $0.09 | $0.09 – $0.09 | 4 |
| 2025 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -8M | $-0.08 | $-0.10 – $-0.06 | 3 |
| 2025 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -10M | $-0.06 | $-0.09 – $-0.05 | 3 |
| 2026 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -10M | $-0.06 | $-0.08 – $-0.04 | 2 |
| 2026 Q2 | 0M | 0M | -9M | $-0.05 | $-0.05 – $-0.05 | 2 |
| 2026 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -9M | $-0.06 | $-0.06 – $-0.05 | 2 |
| 2026 Q4 | 36M | 7M | -9M | $-0.06 | $-0.06 – $-0.06 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-19 | BUY | Kalin Katherine Bach | director | 63,400 | $1.59 | $101K | $166K |
| 2025-06-12 | BUY | VAN NOSTRAND ROBERT L | director | 10,000 | $1.48 | $15K | $30K |
| 2025-05-30 | BUY | Wasman Jane | director | 20,000 | $1.69 | $34K | $51K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
SELLAS Life Sciences: Dilution-Driven Liquidity Amidst Arduous Arbitration
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
As of March 2026, SELLAS is approaching the final readout for its pivotal Phase 3 REGAL trial of galinpepimut-S (GPS) in AML. In December 2025, the company reported 72 of the required 80 'events' (deaths) had occurred. Additionally, Phase 2 data for SLS009 presented at ASH 2025 showed a 46% overall response rate in relapsed/refractory AML-MR patients, significantly outperforming historical benchmarks (Source: Seeking Alpha, Stocktwits).
Bears argue that SLS is a high-risk binary play with no revenue and a history of dilution. However, they may be missing the 'deceleration' signal in the REGAL trial: the time to reach the final 80 events has taken longer than statistically expected, which historically correlates with extended overall survival (mOS) for the treatment arm. While bears anticipate failure based on past WT1-targeting vaccines, the current mOS in the REGAL trial appears to be tracking well above the 8-month historical benchmark for CR2 patients (Source: Reddit Deep Due Diligence, Maxim Group).
Despite recent momentum, the stock faces significant binary risk; if the REGAL trial fails to meet its primary endpoint of overall survival, the company's valuation could collapse. Furthermore, while recent warrant exercises raised $54.6M, the company has a long-standing history of capital raises that have historically diluted long-term shareholders (Source: Simply Wall St, StockTitan).
SLS faces competition from established AML maintenance therapies and other CDK9 inhibitors in development. The primary threat remains the standard of care, Azacitidine and Venetoclax (AZA/VEN), although SLS009 is specifically being positioned as a solution for patients who have already failed or become resistant to AZA/VEN regimens (Source: MedPath, Nasdaq).
Retail sentiment is 'extremely bullish,' with social volume on platforms like Stocktwits surging over 1,000% in early 2026. Many investors are using 'cure rate' models to suggest the trial's success is statistically probable due to the slow event rate. Medical sentiment is also supported by the addition of world-renowned hematology experts to the Scientific Advisory Board in late 2025 (Source: Stocktwits, StockTitan).