Stocks/SBNY

SBNY

Signature Bank
Financial Services·Banks - Regional
$0.50
$56M market cap
Claude Rating
1/10STRONG SHORT
Revenue
$3.2B
Free Cash Flow
$897.4M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
28.1%
P/FCF
0.1x
EV/FCF
-13.6x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$0.01
Upside
-98.0%

Signature Bank provides commercial banking products and services. It accepts various deposit products, including checking accounts, money market accounts, escrow deposit accounts, cash concentration accounts, certificates of deposit, and other cash management products. The company provides various lending products comprising commercial and industrial loans, real estate loans, and letters of credit. In addition, it offers asset management and investment products; and retirement products, such as

2-Year Price History

$0.55-76.0%
$1.0$1.5$2.0volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.024,549----------
Est2026-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.024,549----------
Est2026-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.024,549----------
Est2026-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.024,549----------
Est2026-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.024,549----------
Est2025-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.024,549----------
Est2025-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.024,549----------
Est2025-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.024,549----------
Act2022-Q4683.90.00.0300.985.775.1-10.624,54912,28762.70.0%0.0x--
Act2022-Q31,020469.2463.2358.5621.6607.7-13.929,9402,31262.732.5%1.6x--
Act2022-Q2812.2478.3472.5339.2405.2394.1-11.134,1662,43562.727.6%3.8x--
Act2022-Q1676.6417.5411.9338.5-166.9-179.6-12.746,0173,28162.122.8%6.1x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
2022114.5842.8%1,3657.3×3.1×
TTM0.500.0%42.8%1,3650.0×0.0×
2026E0.50-100.0%0

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude1/10STRONG SHORTFV: $0.01

SBNY is a defunct bank in FDIC receivership with zero ongoing operations. The common equity is almost certainly worthless. The FDIC's receivership priority waterfall places common shareholders last — behind insured depositors, uninsured depositors, the FDIC's subrogated claim (~$2.4B DIF loss), general unsecured creditors, and subordinated debt holders. In virtually every FDIC bank failure in history, common equity holders recover zero. The $75M OTC market cap is entirely speculative retail activity with no fundamental basis. The historical financials shown are pre-failure operating data that is completely irrelevant to the current situation. A DCF framework is inapplicable — this is a binary liquidation outcome with an overwhelming probability of zero recovery for common shareholders. This is a strong sell / avoid at any price above zero.

Catalyst The only conceivable upside catalyst would be if FDIC asset liquidation proceeds dramatically exceed all senior claims, which would require the residual asset portfolio to realize far above book value — an extraordinarily unlikely outcome given the $2.4B DIF loss estimate and the distressed nature of remaining assets.
Risk The single biggest risk to a short position is that the stock is already near zero and thinly traded on OTC markets with extreme volatility (52-week range $0.0003 to $1.50), making it nearly impossible to borrow shares and creating potential for irrational speculative squeezes despite zero fundamental value.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
1/10
Quarter
1/10
Exp. Move
-20.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$0.50
Market Cap$56M
Enterprise Value$-12.2B
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF0.1x
EV/FCF-13.6x
FCF Margin (TTM)28.1%
FCF Yield1610.8%
Dividend Yield (TTM)588.0%
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$3.2B
Net Income$1.3B
Free Cash Flow$897.4M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin42.8%
Net Margin41.9%
FCF Margin28.1%
CapEx % of Revenue1.5%
SBC % of Revenue1.8%
ROIC20.7%
WC Change % Rev-3.5%
Interest Coverage1.3x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$195.65
+39029.3% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$-12.3B
= Fair Equity$12.3B
Revenue Growth-100.0% → 1.0%
FCF Margin28.1% → 0.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float1.6%
Short Shares0.9M
Days to Cover226.1
Change (vs Prior)+0.0%
Short % Float History
1.60%+0.00pp
0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%2.4%2.6%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-100.0%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin0.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds99%
Est. Borrow Rate100.0%
Terminal EV/FCF0.0x
LT Growth0.0%
LT FCF Margin0.0%

Employees

Headcount2,243
Revenue / Employee$1,423,457
Gross Profit / Employee$1,186,073

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NEUTRAL
Net flow · still filing
No float data — flow unavailable.

Ownership composition

Active
0.4%(-0.2% YoY)
4 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
0 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
0 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$260K$2.30+$0+$0-2.4%$613M
TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY$1K$149.62+$0+$0-0.6%$12.89B
HUNTINGTON NATIONAL BANK$0$70.74+$0+$0-0.1%$18.12B
NBC SECURITIES, INC.$0$0.65+$0+$0-0.3%$1.33B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-2.42%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-2.43%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.00%
0 buyers · $0.00B in
Sellers (this Q)
+0.00%
0 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-14.6%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+0.0%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-17.8%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-5.9%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+0.0%
Sellers' overall flow ~ flat.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
+7.1%
Holder mid (any stock)
+3.4%
Holder rally (any stock)
-14.2%

Top-5 holders · 100.0%

MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC--
TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY--
HUNTINGTON NATIONAL BANK--
NBC SECURITIES, INC.--

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

04.9M9.7M14.6M19.4M$0.18$72$145$217$2892021-062021-122022-062022-122023-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/Capital International InvestorsFMR LLCAlecta Pensionsforsakring, OmsesidigtJPMORGAN CHASE & COInvesco Ltd.FRED ALGER MANAGEMENT, LLC60KBANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/MACKENZIE FINANCIAL CORPArtemis Investment Management LLP

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
21
6
Buy: 21Hold: 6Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2023 Q3653M467M277M$3.89$3.89 – $3.893
2023 Q4675M496M297M$4.06$4.06 – $4.061
2024 Q1880M394M99M$1.58$1.58 – $1.581
2024 Q2731M327M279M$4.45$4.45 – $4.451
2024 Q3757M339M300M$4.79$4.79 – $4.791
2024 Q4784M351M315M$5.02$5.02 – $5.021
2025 Q11.1B482M284M$4.53$4.53 – $4.531
2025 Q21.1B507M295M$4.70$4.70 – $4.701
2025 Q31.2B533M306M$4.88$4.88 – $4.881
2025 Q41.3B561M317M$5.06$5.06 – $5.061

Corporate

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

83.5%retail+2.1pp
16.9%dark-2.0pp
week of 2026-04-06
0%20%40%60%80%100%24-1125-0225-0525-0725-1026-0126-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In February 2026, a federal appeals court ruled that the residual Signature Bank entity is not liable for a $33 million crypto Ponzi scheme, significantly reducing potential liquidation liabilities. Additionally, former Signature executives launched N3XT, a Wyoming-based blockchain bank, in December 2025, reviving interest in the team's fintech expertise. Most recently, in March 2026, Morgan Stanley's acquisition of $700 million in property loans previously linked to Signature has boosted confidence in the recovery value of the bank's remaining asset portfolio.

🐻 Bear Case

The core bear thesis remains that SBNY is a defunct entity in FDIC receivership, where common equity is historically wiped out to zero. The stock is currently a 'zombie' security trading on the OTC market (OTCPK), and any perceived value is purely speculative, tied to a long-shot liquidation process that must satisfy all senior creditors and the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund (estimated at a $2.4B loss) before shareholders see a dime.

🚩 Red Flags

Technical indicators as of March 2026 show extreme volatility with a 52-week range of $0.0003 to $1.50. The lack of standardized financial reporting (P/E and Price/Book are N/A) makes intrinsic valuation impossible. Furthermore, institutional ownership is minimal, and the stock's recent 29% price jump is viewed by analysts as a 'dead cat bounce' or speculative retail 'meme' activity rather than a fundamental turnaround.

⚔️ Competitive Threats

The bank's most valuable assets and customer relationships were already absorbed by New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) and Flagstar Bank in 2023. Current competitive threats come from new crypto-native banks and fintechs, including the executive-led startup N3XT, which are aggressively capturing Signature's former niche in digital asset 24/7 payment settlements (Signet), leaving the residual SBNY entity with no operational business to defend.

💬 Customer Sentiment

Customer sentiment for the original banking entity is non-existent as operations have ceased. However, speculative sentiment among retail traders has turned 'bullish' on technical grounds, with the RSI hitting an 'oversold' level of 21.28 in February 2026, leading to increased social media followers and trading volume on platforms like MarketBeat and Tickeron as 'liquidation play' interest grows.