Stocks/RNTX

RNTX

Rein Therapeutics Inc.
Healthcare·Medical - Pharmaceuticals
$1.11
$31M market cap
Claude Rating
2/10SHORT
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-16.6M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$0.40
Upside
-64.0%

Rein Therapeutics, Inc. is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the development and commercialization of a novel class of therapeutics for the treatment of cancer and other diseases. It focuses on its lead product candidate, ALRN-6924, which is a cell-permeating peptide that disrupts the interaction of p53 suppressors MDM2 and MDMX with tumor suppressor p53 to reactivate tumor suppression in non-mutant, or wild-type, p53 cancers. The company was founded by Gregory L. Verd

2-Year Price History

$1.04-40.6%
$1.2$1.4$1.6$1.8$2.0$2.2$2.4$2.6volDec 24Mar 25Jun 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.04.5----------
Est2027-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.04.5----------
Est2027-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.04.5----------
Est2026-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.04.5----------
Est2026-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.04.5----------
Est2026-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.04.5----------
Est2026-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.04.5----------
Act2026-Q10.0-5.2-5.2-5.8-3.4-3.4-0.04.54.930.4-165.5%----
Est2025-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.04.5----------
Act2025-Q40.0-3.9-4.0-32.0-3.2-3.2-0.03.20.025.4-98.0%----
Act2025-Q30.0-5.6-5.5-5.6-3.6-3.6-0.04.10.026.4-50.9%----
Act2025-Q20.0-6.9-6.9-6.8-6.4-6.4-0.05.70.024.2------
Act2025-Q10.0-5.6-5.6-5.5-6.2-6.2-0.07.40.02.2------
Act2024-Q40.0-42.5-5.8-41.0-4.8-4.8-0.012.90.021.7-37.4%----
Act2024-Q30.0-5.9-6.1-5.9-3.8-3.8-0.017.70.021.7-57.8%----
Act2024-Q20.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-8.4-8.4-0.021.90.019.9-0.1%----
Act2024-Q10.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-5.3-5.3-0.012.00.08.3-0.1%----
Act2023-Q40.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-10.40.0-10.417.30.14.8-60.8%----
Act2023-Q30.00.00.00.0-1.6-1.6-0.012.10.04.5-0.3%----
Act2023-Q20.00.00.00.0-3.1-3.1-0.013.70.04.5-0.2%----
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20242.30-48n/mn/mn/m
20251.16-22n/mn/mn/m
TTM1.11-220.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E1.110

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude2/10SHORTFV: $0.40

RNTX is a clinical-stage biotech facing imminent insolvency with only 2.3 months of cash runway, resorting to predatory financing structures (Yorkville death-spiral convertibles, 20% discount promissory notes) that will massively dilute existing shareholders. The sole value driver is LTI-03 Phase 2 data in IPF expected Q3 2026, but the company may not survive to see it without raising $10M+ in deeply dilutive capital. The previous lead program (ALRN-6924/LTI-01) already failed and was impaired for $37M. At a $33M market cap, the stock prices in meaningful probability of survival and clinical success, but the financing structure is designed to transfer value from common shareholders to predatory lenders. The 21.7% annual dilution rate understates future dilution given the accelerating cash need. This is a SELL — the risk/reward is terrible for common equity holders even if the science works, because the capital structure will capture most of the upside.

Catalyst Positive LTI-03 Phase 2 RENEW trial topline data in Q3 2026 could theoretically re-rate the stock, but only if the company secures non-dilutive financing or a partnership before then — highly unlikely given the current trajectory.
Risk The company runs out of cash and is forced into either a reverse merger, predatory financing that dilutes common equity to near-zero, or outright bankruptcy before Phase 2 data readout.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
3/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$1.11
Market Cap$31M
Enterprise Value$32M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-53.5%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution1285.4%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-50.2M
Free Cash Flow$-16.6M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-104.8%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage--

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$0.00
-100.0% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$0M
= Fair Equity$0M
Revenue Growth0.0% → 1.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → 0.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float3.9%
Short Shares0.8M
Days to Cover3.8
Change (vs Prior)+252.9%
Short % Float History
3.90%+3.60pp
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin0.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds55%
Est. Borrow Rate100.0%
Terminal EV/FCF0.0x
LT Growth0.0%
LT FCF Margin0.0%

Employees

Headcount11
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$0
2022: 6 → 2023: 15 → 2024: 11 → 2025: 10 (19% CAGR)

Cash Runway

3.2months
CRITICAL

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 5.5% of float, sold 1.8%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+3.7% of float (net)
Bought 5.5% · Sold 1.8%
45 filers reported (last quarter: 46)

Ownership composition

Active
42.1%(+12.4% YoY)
34 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
7.7%(+1.3% YoY)
7 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
1.2%(+0.7% YoY)
3 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
1.0%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-122023-092024-062025-032025-122026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Voss Capital, LLC$5.7M$1.44+$188K+$4.4M-0.8%$1.75B
BIOS Capital Management, LP$2.6M$2.15+$379K+$379K-13.4%$52.9M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$1.3M$1.30+$1.3M+$1.3M$4.04T
UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS/TEXAS AM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO$665K$2.30+$0+$0+1.9%$687M
Cable Car Capital, LP$546K$2.30+$0+$0-23.3%$238M
Prosight Management, LP$535K$1.42−$40K−$24K-16.0%$610M
Sigma Planning Corp$453K$1.59+$132K+$57K-0.0%$3.58B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$448K$1.37+$78K+$128K+2.3%$1.61T
Texas Capital Bank Wealth Management Services Inc$356K$1.17+$15K+$322K-0.1%$1.68B
GAGNON SECURITIES LLCMM$311K$1.15−$0+$218K-10.2%$433M
Senvest Management, LLC$300K$2.30+$0+$0-4.5%$2.98B
Palogic Value Management, L.P.$234K$1.30+$234K+$234K-2.7%$226M
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$201K$1.30+$201K+$201K$395.83B
Rock Creek Group, LP$163K$1.19+$33K+$163K-3.1%$988M
ABS Direct Equity Fund LLC$163K$1.16+$0+$163K-3.8%$131M
STATE STREET CORPPassive$99K$1.26+$0+$78K-0.2%$2.89T
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$89K$1.91+$18K+$22K-0.2%$5.69T
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$83K$1.25+$31K+$50K-0.2%$755.34B
Chicago Partners Investment Group LLC$77K$1.64+$13K+$10K-0.1%$4.39B
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO$55K$1.52+$0+$35K-0.0%$162.09B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
-5.11%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-5.11%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-4.77%
22 buyers · $0.00B in
Sellers (this Q)
+9.21%
6 sellers · $-0.00B out
alpha coverage: 90% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-14.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-43.5%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+5.9%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+6.2%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-33.4%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
+5.6%
Holder mid (any stock)
+1.3%
Holder rally (any stock)
-2.9%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

02.1M4.1M6.2M8.3M$1.15$1.44$1.72$2.01$2.302022-122023-092024-062025-032025-122026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Voss Capital, LLC4.4MAlerce Investment Management, L.P.UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS/TEXAS AM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO512KBIOS Capital Management, LP2.0MAlyeska Investment Group, L.P.Nantahala Capital Management, LLCCable Car Capital, LP420KProsight Management, LP412KSenvest Management, LLC231KSigma Planning Corp349K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Year (1 analysts)$6.0044050.0%
Current Price$1.11
Analyst Ratings
1
Hold: 1Consensus: Hold
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q30M0M-6M$-0.24$-0.26 – $-0.222
2025 Q40M0M-28M$-1.09$-1.09 – $-1.091
2026 Q10M0M-15M$-0.49$-0.49 – $-0.491
2026 Q20M0M-15M$-0.49$-0.49 – $-0.491
2026 Q30M0M-11M$-0.35$-0.35 – $-0.351
2026 Q40M0M-11M$-0.35$-0.35 – $-0.351

Corporate

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$25K
1 txn · 1 insider · 25,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$551K
4 txns · 1 insider · 410,233 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-04-30BUYWINDSOR JAMES BRIANdirector, officer: See Remarks25,000$1.00$25K$27K
2025-11-14BUYVoss Capital, LP10 percent owner104,183$1.22$128K$1.13M
2025-10-28BUYVoss Capital, LP10 percent owner178,392$1.39$248K$695K
2025-10-27BUYVoss Capital, LP10 percent owner97,482$1.37$134K$1.13M
2025-10-24BUYVoss Capital, LP10 percent owner30,176$1.39$42K$1.01M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

57.5%retail+18.3pp
10.2%dark-1.4pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%80%25-0125-0325-0625-0925-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Rein Therapeutics, Inc.: A Bridge to Massive Dilution Built on Toxic Financing

Overall Risk
8/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
10/10
Insolvency
7/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
4/10
Legal
2/10
Audit Warnings
6/10
Hidden Upside
5/10
Contextually Acceptable
3/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

Rein Therapeutics (formerly Aileron) has achieved major regulatory and clinical milestones recently: the FDA lifted a full clinical hold on its Phase 2 'RENEW' trial for LTI-03 (Nov 2025), and the European Commission granted LTI-03 Orphan Drug Designation (Jan 2026). Crucially, the company announced the first patient dosed in the RENEW trial on March 3, 2026, with topline data expected in Q3 2026 (Source: Stock Titan, Reintx.com).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on the company's precarious financial health and history of clinical setbacks. RNTX recently resorted to issuing $2.875M in unsecured promissory notes at a 20% discount to stay afloat, with maturity set for June 30, 2026, unless a $10M financing occurs first (Source: SEC Filing 8-K, Mar 2026). Bears argue the 'rebranding' from Aileron was a tactic to distance the firm from its previous failed cancer programs, and they view the upcoming data gap as a 'death valley' for liquidity.

🚩 Red Flags

Immediate red flags include the resignation of board member Manuel C. Alves Aivado (Feb 2026) and a pattern of significant shareholder dilution to fund operations. The stock is currently a penny stock (~$1.20) with high volatility and technical indicators signaling a 'falling trend' despite fundamental progress (Source: Intellectia AI, Simply Wall St).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

The primary threat is the entrenched standard-of-care treatments for IPF, Nintedanib and Pirfenidone. While RNTX's LTI-03 claims a superior 'dual mechanism'—reducing scarring while promoting lung repair—competitors with deeper pockets are also pursuing IPF treatments. If RNTX cannot secure a partnership or significant capital by mid-2026, it risks insolvency before its competitive advantages can be proven in the clinic.

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among clinical investigators is high, with published data in 'iScience' and 'medRxiv' suggesting LTI-03 could be the first therapy to protect alveolar epithelial type II progenitor cells (Source: iScience, Sept 2025). Investigator Philip L. Molyneaux noted the drug's ability to reach lung targets and reduce fibrosis-associated biomarkers, which differentiates it from existing drugs that only slow disease progression.