RNTX
Rein Therapeutics Inc.Rein Therapeutics, Inc. is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the development and commercialization of a novel class of therapeutics for the treatment of cancer and other diseases. It focuses on its lead product candidate, ALRN-6924, which is a cell-permeating peptide that disrupts the interaction of p53 suppressors MDM2 and MDMX with tumor suppressor p53 to reactivate tumor suppression in non-mutant, or wild-type, p53 cancers. The company was founded by Gregory L. Verd
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 4.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 4.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 4.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 4.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 4.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 4.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 4.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | -5.2 | -5.2 | -5.8 | -3.4 | -3.4 | -0.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 30.4 | -165.5% | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 4.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -3.9 | -4.0 | -32.0 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -0.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 25.4 | -98.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 0.0 | -5.6 | -5.5 | -5.6 | -3.6 | -3.6 | -0.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 26.4 | -50.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.0 | -6.9 | -6.9 | -6.8 | -6.4 | -6.4 | -0.0 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 24.2 | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 0.0 | -5.6 | -5.6 | -5.5 | -6.2 | -6.2 | -0.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 2.2 | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 0.0 | -42.5 | -5.8 | -41.0 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -0.0 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 21.7 | -37.4% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 0.0 | -5.9 | -6.1 | -5.9 | -3.8 | -3.8 | -0.0 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 21.7 | -57.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -8.4 | -8.4 | -0.0 | 21.9 | 0.0 | 19.9 | -0.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -5.3 | -5.3 | -0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | -0.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -10.4 | 0.0 | -10.4 | 17.3 | 0.1 | 4.8 | -60.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -0.0 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 4.5 | -0.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -0.0 | 13.7 | 0.0 | 4.5 | -0.2% | -- | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.30 | — | — | -48 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| 2025 | 1.16 | — | — | -22 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| TTM | 1.11 | — | — | -22 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | — |
| 2026E | 1.11 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
RNTX is a clinical-stage biotech facing imminent insolvency with only 2.3 months of cash runway, resorting to predatory financing structures (Yorkville death-spiral convertibles, 20% discount promissory notes) that will massively dilute existing shareholders. The sole value driver is LTI-03 Phase 2 data in IPF expected Q3 2026, but the company may not survive to see it without raising $10M+ in deeply dilutive capital. The previous lead program (ALRN-6924/LTI-01) already failed and was impaired for $37M. At a $33M market cap, the stock prices in meaningful probability of survival and clinical success, but the financing structure is designed to transfer value from common shareholders to predatory lenders. The 21.7% annual dilution rate understates future dilution given the accelerating cash need. This is a SELL — the risk/reward is terrible for common equity holders even if the science works, because the capital structure will capture most of the upside.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 5.5% of float, sold 1.8%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Voss Capital, LLC | $5.7M | $1.44 | +$188K | +$4.4M | -0.8% | $1.75B |
| BIOS Capital Management, LP | $2.6M | $2.15 | +$379K | +$379K | -13.4% | $52.9M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $1.3M | $1.30 | +$1.3M | +$1.3M | — | $4.04T |
| UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS/TEXAS AM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO | $665K | $2.30 | +$0 | +$0 | +1.9% | $687M |
| Cable Car Capital, LP | $546K | $2.30 | +$0 | +$0 | -23.3% | $238M |
| Prosight Management, LP | $535K | $1.42 | −$40K | −$24K | -16.0% | $610M |
| Sigma Planning Corp | $453K | $1.59 | +$132K | +$57K | -0.0% | $3.58B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $448K | $1.37 | +$78K | +$128K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| Texas Capital Bank Wealth Management Services Inc | $356K | $1.17 | +$15K | +$322K | -0.1% | $1.68B |
| GAGNON SECURITIES LLCMM | $311K | $1.15 | −$0 | +$218K | -10.2% | $433M |
| Senvest Management, LLC | $300K | $2.30 | +$0 | +$0 | -4.5% | $2.98B |
| Palogic Value Management, L.P. | $234K | $1.30 | +$234K | +$234K | -2.7% | $226M |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $201K | $1.30 | +$201K | +$201K | — | $395.83B |
| Rock Creek Group, LP | $163K | $1.19 | +$33K | +$163K | -3.1% | $988M |
| ABS Direct Equity Fund LLC | $163K | $1.16 | +$0 | +$163K | -3.8% | $131M |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $99K | $1.26 | +$0 | +$78K | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $89K | $1.91 | +$18K | +$22K | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $83K | $1.25 | +$31K | +$50K | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| Chicago Partners Investment Group LLC | $77K | $1.64 | +$13K | +$10K | -0.1% | $4.39B |
| NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO | $55K | $1.52 | +$0 | +$35K | -0.0% | $162.09B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 72.8%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -6M | $-0.24 | $-0.26 – $-0.22 | 2 |
| 2025 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -28M | $-1.09 | $-1.09 – $-1.09 | 1 |
| 2026 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -15M | $-0.49 | $-0.49 – $-0.49 | 1 |
| 2026 Q2 | 0M | 0M | -15M | $-0.49 | $-0.49 – $-0.49 | 1 |
| 2026 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -11M | $-0.35 | $-0.35 – $-0.35 | 1 |
| 2026 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -11M | $-0.35 | $-0.35 – $-0.35 | 1 |
Corporate
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | BUY | WINDSOR JAMES BRIAN | director, officer: See Remarks | 25,000 | $1.00 | $25K | $27K |
| 2025-11-14 | BUY | Voss Capital, LP | 10 percent owner | 104,183 | $1.22 | $128K | $1.13M |
| 2025-10-28 | BUY | Voss Capital, LP | 10 percent owner | 178,392 | $1.39 | $248K | $695K |
| 2025-10-27 | BUY | Voss Capital, LP | 10 percent owner | 97,482 | $1.37 | $134K | $1.13M |
| 2025-10-24 | BUY | Voss Capital, LP | 10 percent owner | 30,176 | $1.39 | $42K | $1.01M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Rein Therapeutics, Inc.: A Bridge to Massive Dilution Built on Toxic Financing
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
Rein Therapeutics (formerly Aileron) has achieved major regulatory and clinical milestones recently: the FDA lifted a full clinical hold on its Phase 2 'RENEW' trial for LTI-03 (Nov 2025), and the European Commission granted LTI-03 Orphan Drug Designation (Jan 2026). Crucially, the company announced the first patient dosed in the RENEW trial on March 3, 2026, with topline data expected in Q3 2026 (Source: Stock Titan, Reintx.com).
The bear case centers on the company's precarious financial health and history of clinical setbacks. RNTX recently resorted to issuing $2.875M in unsecured promissory notes at a 20% discount to stay afloat, with maturity set for June 30, 2026, unless a $10M financing occurs first (Source: SEC Filing 8-K, Mar 2026). Bears argue the 'rebranding' from Aileron was a tactic to distance the firm from its previous failed cancer programs, and they view the upcoming data gap as a 'death valley' for liquidity.
Immediate red flags include the resignation of board member Manuel C. Alves Aivado (Feb 2026) and a pattern of significant shareholder dilution to fund operations. The stock is currently a penny stock (~$1.20) with high volatility and technical indicators signaling a 'falling trend' despite fundamental progress (Source: Intellectia AI, Simply Wall St).
The primary threat is the entrenched standard-of-care treatments for IPF, Nintedanib and Pirfenidone. While RNTX's LTI-03 claims a superior 'dual mechanism'—reducing scarring while promoting lung repair—competitors with deeper pockets are also pursuing IPF treatments. If RNTX cannot secure a partnership or significant capital by mid-2026, it risks insolvency before its competitive advantages can be proven in the clinic.
Sentiment among clinical investigators is high, with published data in 'iScience' and 'medRxiv' suggesting LTI-03 could be the first therapy to protect alveolar epithelial type II progenitor cells (Source: iScience, Sept 2025). Investigator Philip L. Molyneaux noted the drug's ability to reach lung targets and reduce fibrosis-associated biomarkers, which differentiates it from existing drugs that only slow disease progression.