Stocks/RCKT

RCKT

Rocket Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$3.07
$335M market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-179.8M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$3.50
Upside
+14.0%

Rocket Pharmaceuticals, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-platform biotechnology company that focuses on developing gene therapies for rare and devastating diseases. It has three clinical-stage ex vivo lentiviral vector programs for fanconi anemia, a genetic defect in the bone marrow that reduces production of blood cells or promotes the production of faulty blood cells; leukocyte adhesion deficiency-I, a genetic disorder that causes the immune system to malfunction; and

2-Year Price History

$2.96-86.9%
$5.0$10$15$20$25volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q430.0-24.0---25.5---28.5-1.4-94.2----------
Est2027-Q325.0-25.0---26.3---30.0-1.3-65.7----------
Est2027-Q222.0-26.4---28.6---31.9-1.3-35.7----------
Est2027-Q118.0-28.8---30.6---34.2-1.3-3.8----------
Est2026-Q415.0-30.0---31.5---36.0-1.230.4----------
Est2026-Q310.0-32.0---34.0---38.0-1.066.4----------
Est2026-Q25.0-35.0---37.5---40.0-1.0104.4----------
Est2026-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.0144.4----------
Act2026-Q10.0-46.4-48.5-47.6-45.4-45.5-0.1144.424.8112.1-783.6%-98.0x--
Act2025-Q40.0-37.0-44.0-42.5-34.8-34.9-0.177.624.9111.1-706.9%-11.2x--
Act2025-Q30.0-46.6-52.3-50.3-50.4-50.4-0.1222.825.1111.6-716.8%-98.6x--
Act2025-Q20.0-65.9-71.2-68.9-49.0-49.0-0.1271.525.2111.0-403.4%-139.3x--
Act2025-Q10.0-57.9-64.4-61.3-55.8-56.2-0.4318.225.4110.1-197.8%-122.6x--
Act2024-Q40.0-57.5-62.7-60.3-47.0-47.3-0.3372.325.597.5-136.4%-121.5x--
Act2024-Q30.0-63.9-69.4-66.7-52.1-53.7-1.6235.725.694.2-544.7%-135.6x--
Act2024-Q20.0-66.8-73.7-69.7-53.9-55.8-1.9278.825.893.8-274.9%-141.9x--
Act2024-Q10.0-59.3-67.4-62.1-56.9-58.9-2.0330.326.093.6-161.9%-126.0x--
Act2023-Q40.0-57.3-63.3-59.7-29.4-34.0-4.7373.225.093.3-115.3%-121.8x--
Act2023-Q30.0-59.7-65.4-61.9-57.2-61.8-4.7437.225.282.6-96.2%-127.2x--
Act2023-Q20.0-63.5-68.8-65.7-50.9-55.0-4.2307.025.480.5-202.5%-135.7x--
Act2023-Q10.0-56.2-62.2-58.3-57.6-60.6-3.0331.125.479.5-128.0%-120.1x--
Act2022-Q40.0-64.0-69.1-66.7-56.1-59.3-3.3356.422.972.9-122.4%-136.9x--
Act2022-Q30.0-55.5-58.5-57.8-43.9-44.4-0.5306.522.166.2-225.4%-89.4x--
Act2022-Q20.0-52.0-54.2-54.4-39.0-41.9-2.9321.422.365.5-172.2%-60.4x--
Act2022-Q10.0-40.6-42.6-43.0-39.3-41.2-2.0346.622.464.5-107.7%-39.0x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
202219.57-212n/mn/mn/m
202329.97-237n/mn/mn/m
202412.57-248n/mn/mn/m
20253.51-207n/mn/mn/m
TTM3.07-1960.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E3.07-3.2%-10.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2027E3.07+216.7%-1.1%-10.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $3.50

Rocket Pharmaceuticals is a high-risk pre-revenue gene therapy company approaching a critical inflection point with the March 2026 PDUFA date for KRESLADI. While approval would be transformative and validate the platform, the company faces a daunting combination of challenges: ~5 months of cash runway, near-certain dilutive capital raise in 2026, active securities litigation, 16% short interest, history of clinical holds and a patient death in its Danon program, and the well-documented difficulty of commercializing ultra-rare gene therapies (see Bluebird Bio's struggles). Even in an approval scenario, the addressable patient population is extremely small, making the path to profitability long and uncertain. The 14% annual dilution rate effectively destroys shareholder value while the company burns cash. At ~$540M market cap, the stock prices in meaningful probability of approval success, leaving limited upside relative to the substantial downside risks of a CRL, failed capital raise, or litigation settlement.

Catalyst KRESLADI PDUFA date of March 28, 2026 is the immediate binary catalyst. A PRV sale post-approval could generate $100M+. Resumption of RP-A501 Danon trials in H1 2026 could re-rate the pipeline value.
Risk Cash runway of ~5 months is critically short; the company must raise capital in 2026 regardless of KRESLADI approval outcome, and a CRL or regulatory delay could make financing extremely dilutive or impossible, creating an existential liquidity crisis.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
5/10
Exp. Move
-2.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$3.07
Market Cap$335M
Enterprise Value$216M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-53.6%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution1.9%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-209.4M
Free Cash Flow$-179.8M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-652.7%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage-41.4x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$-2.73
-188.8% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$-3.1B
− Net Debt$-120M
= Fair Equity$-306M
Revenue Growth30.0% → 8.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → 20.0%
Discount Rate17.0%
Terminal EV/FCF20.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float24.6%
Short Shares21.6M
Days to Cover10.7
Change (vs Prior)+13.0%
Short % Float History
24.60%+10.60pp
12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%22.0%24.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)158%
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread28.7%
Call $OI (near money)$122K
Put $OI (near money)$22K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$2.5
Major Expirations1
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$2.50$0.50/$1.35991--/$0.55123
$5.00$0.05/$0.351,806$1.40/$2.7075
$7.50--/$0.155,828$2.30/$5.2020
$10.00--/$0.152$6.00/$8.100
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin-380.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin-323.3%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage-63.6x
Model Risk Score9/10
Bankruptcy Odds25%
Est. Borrow Rate15.0%
Terminal EV/FCF20.0x
LT Growth8.0%
LT FCF Margin20.0%

Employees

Headcount299
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$-7,177
2022: 240 → 2023: 268 → 2024: 299 → 2025: 202 (-6% CAGR)

Cash Runway

9.6months
CRITICAL

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 24.8% of float, sold 7.2%. 7 filers moved >1% of shares (6 buying, 1 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+17.6% of float (net)
Bought 24.8% · Sold 7.2%
201 filers reported (last quarter: 184)

Ownership composition

Active
74.1%(-94.7% YoY)
176 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
25.6%(-15.0% YoY)
10 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
1.6%(+0.5% YoY)
9 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
4.3%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
RTW INVESTMENTS, LP$63.3M$19.57+$0+$0-2.2%$9.26B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$28.0M$15.95−$255K+$2.0M-0.2%$5.69T
CITIGROUP INC$18.3M$5.51−$496K+$17.4M-0.3%$156.55B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$16.8M$3.58+$16.8M+$16.8M$1.91T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$16.1M$12.47+$10.0M+$2.8M-0.2%$2.89T
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$13.5M$3.58+$13.5M+$13.5M$4.04T
MAVERICK CAPITAL LTD$12.8M$10.53+$3.8M−$5.8M-1.3%$8.60B
Newtyn Management, LLC$11.3M$2.81+$1.8M+$11.3M-4.1%$936M
Nuveen, LLC$11.2M$3.59+$10.6M+$10.6M+0.0%$368.63B
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$11.2M$8.41+$4.8M+$8.5M-0.5%$127.40B
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$11.0M$3.70+$8.5M+$10.4M-0.2%$218.19B
MARSHALL WACE, LLP$10.9M$5.05+$10.8M+$9.3M+0.6%$92.71B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$7.8M$15.12+$247K+$699K+2.3%$1.61T
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.$7.8M$4.35−$1.7M+$7.8M-0.3%$118.02B
Monaco Asset Management SAM$7.4M$3.15−$3.3M+$7.4M+1.9%$315M
MORGAN STANLEY$7.2M$8.79−$6.9M−$2.2M-0.3%$1.65T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$6.2M$11.88+$2.8M+$2.6M-0.2%$760.93B
UBS Group AG$4.6M$11.59+$4.1M+$2.3M-0.3%$562.11B
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$3.9M$5.99−$3.7M+$3.9M-0.9%$117.03B
FEDERATED HERMES, INC.$3.7M$7.89+$510K+$2.2M-1.1%$61.33B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-0.97%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.95%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.29%
111 buyers · $0.11B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.30%
57 sellers · $0.02B out
alpha coverage: 91% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-8.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+3.3%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+10.2%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+4.6%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+11.7%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.9%
Holder mid (any stock)
-4.5%
Holder rally (any stock)
-5.6%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

012.5M25.0M37.5M50.0M$2.45$9.33$16$23$302021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
RTW INVESTMENTS, LP17.7MWELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLPPRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/860KPERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLCMAVERICK CAPITAL LTD3.6MWESTFIELD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO LPTANG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC100KRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.CITADEL ADVISORS LLCLORD, ABBETT & CO. LLC

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Year (4 analysts)$4.133450.0%
Current Price$3.07
Analyst Ratings
13
4
2
Buy: 13Hold: 4Sell: 2Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q30M0M-56M$-0.50$-0.62 – $-0.3810
2025 Q40M0M-50M$-0.44$-0.48 – $-0.418
2026 Q14M0M-46M$-0.41$-0.49 – $-0.366
2026 Q20M0M115M$1.02$-4.18 – $9.476
2026 Q31M0M-48M$-0.43$-0.56 – $-0.335
2026 Q41M0M-48M$-0.43$-0.43 – $-0.431
2027 Q13M0M-47M$-0.42$-0.42 – $-0.421
2027 Q220M0M-40M$-0.36$-0.36 – $-0.361
2027 Q325M0M-38M$-0.34$-0.34 – $-0.341
2027 Q431M0M-34M$-0.30$-0.30 – $-0.301

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$36.0M
Incentive & Other$45.1M
Total Compensation$81.2M
% of Revenue0.0%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$69K
2 txns · 1 insider · 20,000 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$486K
28 txns · 6 insiders · 142,228 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-19SELLMilitello Johnofficer: See Remarks384$3.01$1K$271K
2026-05-19SELLWilson Martinofficer: General Counsel662$3.01$2K$2.04M
2026-05-19SELLShah Gauravofficer: CEO2,409$3.01$7K$3.14M
2026-05-13SELLMilitello Johnofficer: See Remarks855$3.61$3K$325K
2026-05-13SELLShah Gauravofficer: CEO2,728$3.61$10K$3.76M
2026-05-13SELLWilson Martinofficer: General Counsel3,361$3.61$12K$2.45M
2026-05-07SELLChaudhuri Sarbaniofficer: See Remarks17,650$3.84$68K$1.03M
2026-02-18SELLMilitello Johnofficer: See Remarks1,157$3.34$4K$304K
2026-02-18SELLShah Gauravofficer: CEO5,990$3.34$20K$3.49M
2026-02-18SELLWilson Martinofficer: General Counsel1,376$3.34$5K$2.28M
2026-02-13SELLMilitello Johnofficer: See Remarks3,726$3.31$12K$305K
2026-02-13SELLShah Gauravofficer: CEO12,279$3.31$41K$3.48M
2026-02-13SELLWilson Martinofficer: General Counsel12,253$3.31$41K$2.26M
2026-01-02BUYBjork Elisabethdirector10,000$3.44$34K$172K
2025-11-18SELLShah Gauravdirector, officer: CEO6,276$2.98$19K$2.32M
2025-11-18SELLWilson Martinofficer: General Counsel1,646$2.98$5K$1.14M
2025-11-18SELLSchwartz Jonathan Davidofficer: See Remarks2,545$2.98$8K$892K
2025-11-18SELLMilitello Johnofficer: See Remarks1,086$2.98$3K$197K
2025-10-14SELLMilitello Johnofficer: See Remarks28,918$3.96$115K$265K
2025-08-27BUYBjork Elisabethdirector10,000$3.41$34K$136K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

22.3%retail-3.2pp
19.2%dark+3.9pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Rocket Pharmaceuticals: PRV Life-Support Amidst Mounting Legal Turbulence and Dilution Ramps

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
6/10
Dilution
8/10
Insolvency
5/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
6/10
Legal
9/10
Audit Warnings
4/10
Hidden Upside
8/10
Contextually Acceptable
4/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

As of March 2026, Rocket Pharmaceuticals has several major catalysts: the FDA set a PDUFA action date of March 28, 2026, for KRESLADI (RP-L102) for the treatment of LAD-I, which would mark the company's first commercial launch. Additionally, the FDA recently lifted the clinical hold on the RP-A501 program for Danon disease in Q3 2025, with trials expected to resume in H1 2026. The company also reported a Q4 2025 earnings beat with an EPS of -$0.38 versus the -$0.42 expected (Intellectia.AI, MarketBeat).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear thesis focuses on a high cash burn rate and a history of regulatory setbacks, including a previous CRL for KRESLADI and clinical holds due to patient safety concerns (a death was reported in the RP-A501 trial in mid-2025). Bears, led by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs (who maintain 'Underweight' and 'Sell' ratings respectively), argue that the path to profitability remains years away and that the company faces significant execution risk in the competitive gene therapy market (Seeking Alpha, GuruFocus).

🚩 Red Flags

Notable red flags include recent insider selling by the CEO and General Counsel in February 2026. While the company holds $188.9 million in cash as of year-end 2025, the negative EPS of -$2.25 for the fiscal year suggests a limited runway without further dilutive capital raises or a successful Priority Review Voucher (PRV) sale following potential KRESLADI approval (MarketBeat, Intellectia.AI).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Rocket faces direct competition in the cardiovascular gene therapy space from Lexeo Therapeutics (LX2020), which is developing a treatment for PKP2-associated cardiomyopathy and is expected to release interim clinical data in H2 2025. Additionally, larger biopharma entities entering the rare disease space pose a threat to Rocket's niche market dominance as patent cliffs force big-cap firms to seek orphan drug acquisitions (Seeking Alpha).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among the rare disease patient community remains cautiously optimistic, particularly for Danon disease and LAD-I families who have no other curative options. The receipt of RMAT (Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy) designations for multiple programs suggests strong support from both clinical investigators and regulatory bodies who prioritize these high-unmet-need areas (Intellectia.AI).