Stocks/PLCE

PLCE

The Children's Place, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical·Apparel - Retail
$4.18
$93M market cap
Claude Rating
2/10SHORT
Revenue
$1.2B
Free Cash Flow
$-9.3M
Rev Growth
-19.4%
FCF Margin
-0.8%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
17.1x
Fair Value
$2.50
Upside
-40.2%

The Children's Place, Inc. operates as a children's specialty apparel retailer. The company operates in two segments, The Children's Place U.S. and The Children's Place International. It sells apparel, footwear, accessories, and other items for children; and designs, contracts to manufacture, and sells merchandise under the proprietary The Children's Place, Place, Baby Place, Gymboree, and Sugar & Jade brand names. As of January 29, 2022, the company had 672 stores in the United States, Canada,

2-Year Price History

$3.40-66.5%
$4.0$6.0$8.0$10$12$14$16volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q3308.016.9--0.0--4.6-5.590.8----------
Est2027-Q2268.010.7---4.0---16.1-2.186.2----------
Est2027-Q1215.0-5.4---21.5---34.4-2.2102.2----------
Est2026-Q4370.022.2--1.9--96.2-1.9136.6----------
Est2026-Q3320.014.4---3.2--1.6-6.440.4----------
Est2026-Q2280.08.4---7.0---22.4-2.238.8----------
Est2026-Q1225.0-9.0---27.0---40.5-2.361.2----------
Est2025-Q4385.021.2---1.9--96.3-1.9101.7----------
Act2025-Q4329.2-28.7-38.6-44.675.372.4-2.95.5513.922.2-25.8%-4.0x--
Act2025-Q3339.511.04.0-4.36.2-3.4-9.77.3577.722.22.5%1.4x31.1x
Act2025-Q2298.011.76.1-5.4-30.5-31.9-1.47.8566.122.13.0%1.5x12.9x
Act2025-Q1242.1-15.9-24.0-34.0-43.0-46.4-3.45.7544.821.6-15.6%-1.9x24.6x
Act2024-Q4408.616.07.3-8.0121.3121.4-0.05.4586.312.83.2%1.8x27.5x
Act2024-Q3390.238.529.320.1-44.2-47.7-3.55.8701.612.816.2%3.8x--
Act2024-Q2319.7-12.36.5-32.1-83.9-91.7-7.89.6660.212.83.3%-1.3x20.2x
Act2024-Q1267.9-16.3-25.7-37.8-110.8-115.5-4.713.0581.812.6-17.7%-2.1x11.4x
Act2023-Q4455.0-50.1-31.6-128.8135.4132.0-3.213.6463.812.6-27.3%-5.9x9.4x
Act2023-Q3480.2115.646.838.5-9.9-16.1-6.213.5551.312.632.1%14.5x8.7x
Act2023-Q2345.612.8-25.6-35.4-37.8-45.0-7.218.9526.312.5-12.6%1.7x10.2x
Act2023-Q1321.60.3-28.3-28.85.1-5.9-11.018.2513.312.4-16.5%0.0x11.5x
Act2022-Q4456.1-28.7-61.8-50.58.8-5.6-14.416.7511.812.3-32.4%-5.5x6.7x
Act2022-Q3509.195.357.842.935.823.4-12.419.2495.913.233.2%25.0x--
Act2022-Q2380.920.3-12.5-13.3-34.0-42.0-8.028.2525.013.2-6.6%7.8x--
Act2022-Q1362.452.119.319.8-18.8-29.6-10.758.5517.913.813.1%30.5x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
202236.428.1%1396.6×n/mn/m0.3×
202323.22-6.2%4.9%799.9×12.0×n/m0.2×
202410.46-13.5%1.9%2629.3×n/mn/m0.1×
20253.98-12.8%-1.8%-22n/mn/mn/m0.1×
TTM4.18-12.8%-1.8%-220.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E4.18-1.1%0.0%00.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude2/10SHORTFV: $2.50

PLCE is a structurally declining children's apparel retailer with negative book equity, sub-1x interest coverage, 73% annual dilution, and complete dependence on a single controlling shareholder (Mithaq Capital, 62% ownership) for survival. The $40M cost restructuring may stabilize EBITDA near breakeven, but revenue is in secular decline against better-capitalized competitors (Carter's, Target) and fast fashion disruptors. Minority shareholders face systematic value erosion through dilutive equity issuances and have minimal governance protections. The 35% short interest reflects justified skepticism. Even if the turnaround partially succeeds, the equity upside accrues disproportionately to Mithaq while downside is shared equally. This is a deep value trap masquerading as a turnaround — the controlling shareholder structure means any recovery primarily benefits insiders.

Catalyst Potential short squeeze given 35% SI and 9.4 days to cover if Q4 holiday results surprise positively and cost cuts flow through. Mithaq could also take the company private at a modest premium, though this is speculative.
Risk Mithaq withdraws support or demands even more dilutive terms, triggering a liquidity crisis and potential bankruptcy given the company's negative equity, tight ABL facility ($350M reduced from $433M), and persistent cash burn in non-holiday quarters.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$4.18
Market Cap$93M
Enterprise Value$601M
P/S Ratio0.1x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-0.8%
FCF Yield-10.0%
Dividend Yield (TTM)65.6%
Annual Dilution73.1%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$1.2B
Net Income$-88.3M
Free Cash Flow$-9.3M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-19.4%
EBITDA Margin-1.8%
Net Margin-7.3%
FCF Margin-0.8%
CapEx % of Revenue1.4%
SBC % of Revenue0.2%
ROIC-9.0%
WC Change % Rev6.0%
Interest Coverage-0.7x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$1.20
-71.2% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$267M
− Net Debt$508M
= Fair Equity$27M
Revenue Growth-4.0% → 1.0%
FCF Margin-0.8% → 4.0%
Discount Rate17.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float36.9%
Short Shares2.9M
Days to Cover10.3
Change (vs Prior)-13.3%
Short % Float History
36.90%-2.90pp
30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)109%
Put IV (ATM)114%
ATM Spread4.4%
Call $OI (near money)$237K
Put $OI (near money)$12K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$3.0
Major Expirations2
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$1.00$2.00/$2.900--/$0.200
$2.00$1.20/$1.900$0.05/$1.150
$3.00$0.70/$0.850$0.30/$0.451
$4.00$0.30/$0.450$0.90/$1.053
$5.00$0.15/$0.255$1.70/$1.850
$6.00$0.05/$0.204$2.10/$3.700
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.1%
Forward FCF Margin2.9%
Forward EBITDA Margin2.9%
Forward P/FCF2.7x
Forward EV/FCF17.2x
Forward Int. Coverage1.2x
Model Risk Score9/10
Bankruptcy Odds25%
Est. Borrow Rate14.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x
LT Growth-2.0%
LT FCF Margin4.0%

Employees

Headcount2,530
Revenue / Employee$477,798
Gross Profit / Employee$129,836
2023: 11,300 → 2024: 8,390 → 2025: 7,900 → 2026: 7,800 (-12% CAGR)

Cash Runway

7.1months
CRITICAL

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

BALANCED

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 10.6% of float, sold 10.7%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
-0.1% of float (net)
Bought 10.6% · Sold 10.7%
48 filers reported (last quarter: 72)

Ownership composition

Active
71.9%(-115.7% YoY)
30 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
4.2%(-7.5% YoY)
7 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
1.5%(-6.5% YoY)
6 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
8.1%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Mithaq Capital SPC$45.7M$10.47+$0−$348K-18.3%$166M
Shay Capital LLC$2.2M$7.87+$1.1M+$2.1M+0.3%$704M
Quinn Opportunity Partners LLC$1.8M$11.18+$0−$2.2M-0.8%$1.89B
IMMERSION CORP$1.6M$4.43+$0+$1.6M-8.5%$145M
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$1.3M$11.57+$121K−$4K-0.2%$5.69T
MARSHALL WACE, LLP$1.2M$18.22+$176K+$1.2M+0.6%$92.71B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$1.1M$3.36+$1.1M+$1.1M$4.04T
UBS Group AG$795K$17.27+$559K+$448K-0.3%$562.11B
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM$619K$15.99+$450K+$149K-0.6%$77.14B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$412K$21.04+$38K−$89K+2.3%$1.61T
GROUP ONE TRADING LLCMM$391K$10.43−$87K−$787K-1.6%$3.02B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$192K$11.57+$95K+$163K-0.1%$1.36T
Invesco Ltd.$176K$15.07−$53K−$28K-0.2%$652.04B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$161K$3.36+$161K+$161K$395.83B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$147K$34.00+$0−$47K-0.2%$2.89T
HRT FINANCIAL LP$134K$16.60−$344K+$31K-0.6%$39.46B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$111K$17.79+$0−$40K-0.2%$755.34B
BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC$102K$12.21+$0−$46K-2.3%$4.93B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$97K$15.11−$336K−$118K-0.1%$92.10B
Jump Financial, LLC$83K$33.48+$44K+$83K+0.5%$6.09B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-15.13%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-15.72%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.06%
12 buyers · $0.00B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.13%
12 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 98% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-11.5%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-16.4%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-15.6%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+9.6%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+6.8%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
+3.8%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.8%
Holder rally (any stock)
-2.7%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

03.4M6.9M10.3M13.8M$3.36$15$26$38$492021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Invesco Ltd.52KMithaq Capital SPC13.6MFMR LLCFRANKLIN RESOURCES INCNeuberger Berman Group LLCNuveen Asset Management, LLCMACQUARIE GROUP LTDAMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INCT. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (1 analysts)$3.50-1630.0%
Last Year (4 analysts)$5.382870.0%
Current Price$4.18
Analyst Ratings
18
18
Buy: 18Hold: 18Sell: 3Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q4370M21M16M$0.70$0.70 – $0.701
2026 Q1358M21M-21M$-0.96$-0.96 – $-0.961
2026 Q2198M11M-48M$-2.14$-2.14 – $-2.141
2026 Q3252M15M-14M$-0.61$-0.61 – $-0.611
2026 Q4313M18M3M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111
2027 Q1303M17M-29M$-1.30$-1.30 – $-1.301
2027 Q2208M12M-37M$-1.67$-1.67 – $-1.671
2027 Q3264M15M-4M$-0.19$-0.19 – $-0.191
2027 Q4327M19M15M$0.68$0.68 – $0.681
2028 Q1316M18M-17M$-0.78$-0.78 – $-0.781

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$26.6M
Incentive & Other$10.1M
Total Compensation$36.6M
% of Revenue0.9%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$50K
1 txn · 1 insider · 7,143 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2025-10-08BUYUmair Muhammaddirector, officer: PRESIDENT AND INTERIM CEO7,143$7.00$50K$1.94M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

44.9%retail-1.3pp
11.8%dark+1.0pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2025-Q4)
The Childrens Place US Member$830.3M-15%
The Children's Place Canada$80.5MNEW
By Geography (2025-Q4)
South$327.9M+124%
Northeast$188.9M+166%
West$117.0M+129%
Midwest$102.9M+132%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

The Children’s Place: A Related-Party Liquidity Trap Disguised as a Turnaround

Overall Risk
9/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
9/10
Insolvency
9/10
Earnings Overstated
6/10
Hidden Liabilities
5/10
Legal
6/10
Audit Warnings
7/10
Hidden Upside
3/10
Contextually Acceptable
2/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

The company is scheduled to report Q4 2025/2026 earnings on March 11, 2026. In the last 6 months, Mithaq Capital solidified a majority stake (~68%) and aggressively restructured the board and leadership, including the appointment of Brand President Claudia Lima-Guinehut. A $90 million rights offering was completed to provide immediate liquidity and reduce debt obligations. Additionally, a $40 million cost-saving transformation plan is underway, targeting a reduction in corporate payroll from $120 million to under $80 million by 2026 (Source: MarketBeat, Stock Titan).

🐻 Bear Case

The prevailing bear thesis focuses on a 'broken' mall-centric model and persistent net losses ($51.7M TTM as of late 2025). Revenue has declined at an average annual rate of 5.3% over the last five years, and the company suffers from negative book value and high leverage ($445M debt). Critics argue the turnaround is speculative and that retail giants like Target and Carter’s have structural cost advantages that PLCE cannot overcome (Source: KoalaGains, Simply Wall St).

🚩 Red Flags

Short-term liquidity remains a concern despite the Mithaq lifeline, with negative operating cash flow of $73.4M reported in the first half of fiscal 2025. Inventory management has been a perennial struggle, and while levels were reduced by $78M YoY, gross margins have been pressured by a higher mix of markdowns and a shift toward lower-margin wholesale channels (Source: DCFmodeling, Seeking Alpha).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Direct competition from Carter's (CRI) remains fierce, with Carter's maintaining superior stability and profitability. The company also faces rising pressure from ultra-fast fashion platforms like Shein and large-scale discounters like Target. Macroeconomic risks, specifically potential 2026 tariffs of $20M–$25M, pose a direct threat to margins, though management claims they can mitigate 80% of this impact through sourcing shifts (Source: Seeking Alpha, KoalaGains).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Contrarian signals suggest a potential bottoming; July 2025 saw the first positive direct-to-consumer (DTC) comparable sales growth in 18 months, driven by back-to-school demand. Digital engagement shows promise with rising Google search interest and TikTok follower growth. The brand is pivoting to a 'human-centric' marketing strategy ('Reali-TEA') on social media to drive authenticity, which is starting to resonate with Gen Z and Millennial parents (Source: Reddit r/ValueInvesting, TikTok Next 2026 Report).