Stocks/NMR

NMR

Nomura Holdings, Inc.
Financial Services·Financial - Capital Markets
$8.11
$23.7B market cap
Claude Rating
4/10UNDERWEIGHT
Revenue
$4441.9B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0M
Rev Growth
-5.3%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
-19.2x
Fair Value
$6.80
Upside
-16.2%

Nomura Holdings, Inc. provides various financial services to individuals, corporations, financial institutions, governments, and governmental agencies worldwide. It operates through three segments: Retail, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Retail segment offers various financial products and investment services. As of March 31, 2022, this segment operated a network of 119 branches. The Investment Management segment engages in the management of funds, investment trusts, and other investme

2-Year Price History

$8.11+42.8%
$5.0$6.0$7.0$8.0$9.0volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall (JPY M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q41,020,00096,900--61,200--0.0-1,02043,246,049----------
Est2028-Q31,050,000105,000--68,250--0.0-1,05043,246,049----------
Est2028-Q21,070,000112,350--74,900--0.0-1,07043,246,049----------
Est2028-Q11,100,000126,500--82,500--0.0-1,10043,246,049----------
Est2027-Q41,000,00090,000--55,000--0.0-1,00043,246,049----------
Est2027-Q31,060,000106,000--68,900--0.0-1,06043,246,049----------
Est2027-Q21,080,000113,400--75,600--0.0-1,08043,246,049----------
Est2027-Q11,120,000134,400--89,600--0.0-1,12043,246,049----------
Act2026-Q11,111,810160,282160,282104,5650.00.0-0.043,246,04930,970,3823,0721.3%0.3x--
Act2025-Q4981,84297,74497,74471,9700.00.0-0.05,514,69631,346,2803,0770.9%0.2x60.5x
Act2025-Q31,154,293138,279138,279101,4410.00.0-0.05,574,51432,214,6763,0671.2%0.2x60.4x
Act2025-Q21,193,952133,010133,01098,3870.00.0-0.05,790,27832,449,8833,0501.2%0.2x67.1x
Act2025-Q11,174,256102,931102,93168,9380.00.0-0.04,437,27833,422,4213,0830.8%0.1x84.6x
Act2024-Q41,087,760108,02492,09456,750-448,009-476,243-28,2345,154,97130,960,1553,1470.8%0.1x83.3x
Act2024-Q31,046,17294,09478,71150,550386,517321,767-64,7505,112,09032,095,6823,1380.6%0.1x109.2x
Act2024-Q2978,36471,76956,73535,232-118,060-149,237-31,1774,876,80631,590,0413,1400.5%0.1x105.7x
Act2024-Q1861,98861,30346,31023,331312,192290,569-21,6234,759,72228,752,7763,1440.4%0.1x105.3x
Act2023-Q4696,43737,68422,6917,375-25,668-52,247-26,5794,521,24726,153,9193,1910.2%0.1x111.1x
Act2023-Q3739,96699,64283,56666,944-289,186-377,803-88,6174,109,65227,333,2763,1110.9%0.3x104.6x
Act2023-Q2505,66946,79031,48416,771-244,028-276,575-32,5474,406,08227,861,2833,0930.3%0.2x108.1x
Act2023-Q1381,48026,78211,7331,696-415,868-439,290-23,4224,193,49526,380,3833,1150.1%0.2x110.3x
Act2022-Q4379,00564,15649,52330,96371,29732,295-39,0024,063,51123,477,4253,0180.5%1.0x75.3x
Act2022-Q3379,62295,41780,10060,333-711,512-731,998-20,4863,914,35725,019,1843,1630.9%1.8x--
Act2022-Q2351,81233,39718,4673,213316,495303,576-12,9194,491,44523,728,8523,1800.2%0.6x--
Act2022-Q1378,35693,17778,53348,487-539,112-578,036-38,9243,895,52322,912,7403,1070.9%1.8x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20223.2619.2%286,14767.9×n/m0.1×0.0×
20234.07+56.1%9.1%210,898102.6×n/m0.1×0.0×
20245.45+71.0%8.4%335,19077.0×n/m0.1×0.0×
20258.39+13.3%10.5%471,96454.8×0.1×0.0×
TTM8.11+3.6%11.9%529,3150.0×0.0×
2027E8.11-4.1%0.1%4,4380.0×0.0×
2028E8.11-0.5%0.1%4,4080.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude4/10UNDERWEIGHTFV: $6.80

Nomura is a highly leveraged Japanese investment bank that achieved record results in FY2026 driven by a favorable domestic equity market cycle, NISA-driven retail inflows, and strong global markets activity. However, the Q4 deceleration, 7.5x debt/equity leverage, ongoing regulatory investigations (German tax fraud, bond market manipulation), and structural competitive threats from megabanks and digital brokers suggest the peak earnings cycle may be behind us. At ~0.8x P/S and 10x trailing earnings, the stock appears fairly valued for a cyclical financial with 10% ROE, but the risk-reward is unattractive given earnings normalization risk, opaque Level 3 exposures, and the structural inability to generate meaningful free cash flow. The stock is a hold at best — there are better risk-adjusted opportunities in the Japanese financial space.

Catalyst Potential upside catalysts include: (1) Board raising ROE targets above 10% with concrete capital return commitments, (2) successful Macquarie integration driving Investment Management fee growth, (3) continued Japanese household savings-to-investment shift accelerating Wealth Management recurring revenue. On the downside, resolution of German tax fraud investigations or a Japanese equity market correction would expose the short.
Risk A reversal in the Japanese equity market cycle (which has driven record Wealth Management inflows and Wholesale activity) combined with credit losses in the $2.4B private credit portfolio and multi-billion yen legal settlements from German cum-ex investigations could compress ROE back below 5% and trigger a significant de-rating.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
6/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-6.0%

Latest Earnings Call

Transcript Summary

Nomura Holdings delivered a record-breaking performance for FY ended March 2026, achieving a net income of JPY 362.1 billion and an ROE of 10.1%. This ROE meets the firm's 2030 strategic target four years early. The results were bolstered by record years in Wealth Management and Wholesale. Wealth Management's transition to a recurring revenue model was highly successful, with recurring assets hitting record highs. While the fourth quarter saw a dip in pre-tax income due to a JPY 12 billion impairment loss in an ESG forestry investment and increased professional fees, management remained bullish. Wholesale hit record revenues for the full year despite a late Q4 slowdown triggered by geopolitical risks in the Middle East. CFO Hiroyuki Moriuchi provided transparent data on the firm's $2.4 billion private credit exposure, describing it as well-diversified. April performance has shown a strong rebound, particularly in Wholesale equities. The firm declared a JPY 51 annual dividend and is considering elevating its long-term ROE targets beyond the current 10% ceiling following its early achievement of strategic goals.

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$8.11
Market Cap$23.7B
Enterprise Value$-8.5T
P/S Ratio0.8x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield0.0%
Dividend Yield (TTM)5.1%
Annual Dilution-0.4%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$4441.9B
Net Income$376.4B
Free Cash Flow$0.0M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-5.3%
EBITDA Margin11.9%
Net Margin8.5%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue1.0%
ROIC1.2%
WC Change % Rev-71.3%
Interest Coverage0.2x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$25.09
+209.4% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$-12.3T
= Fair Equity$12.3T
Revenue Growth-0.5% → 2.5%
FCF Margin0.0% → 5.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF8.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float0.1%
Short Shares2.8M
Days to Cover1.5
Change (vs Prior)+11.8%
Short % Float History
0.10%+0.10pp
0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)39%
Put IV (ATM)33%
ATM Spread9.2%
Call $OI (near money)$13K
Put $OI (near money)$7K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$7.5
Major Expirations1
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$2.50$5.10/$6.500--/$0.050
$5.00$2.60/$3.802--/$0.0516
$7.50$0.50/$1.25139$0.05/$0.25352
$10.00$0.05/$0.10130$1.45/$2.203
$12.50--/$0.1593$3.70/$4.900
$15.00--/$0.7517$6.10/$7.600
$17.50--/$0.750$8.60/$10.100
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-4.1%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin10.4%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage0.2x
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds4%
Est. Borrow Rate4.5%
Terminal EV/FCF8.0x
LT Growth2.5%
LT FCF Margin5.0%

Employees

Headcount26,850
Revenue / Employee$165,433,780
Gross Profit / Employee$64,350,428
2022: 15,213 → 2023: 15,131 → 2024: 14,870 → 2025: 15,000 (-1% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

BALANCED

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 0.4% of float, sold 0.1%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+0.3% of float (net)
Bought 0.4% · Sold 0.1%
267 filers reported (last quarter: 258)

Ownership composition

Active
2.4%(+0.9% YoY)
263 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.4%(+0.1% YoY)
4 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
2 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
0.0%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
DONALD SMITH & CO., INC.$104M$5.62+$3.7M+$21.8M+3.2%$5.56B
Fisher Asset Management, LLC$103M$6.39−$473K+$26.0M+0.1%$294.89B
MORGAN STANLEY$83.5M$4.11+$6.0M+$5.8M-0.3%$1.65T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$43.8M$5.28+$2.4M+$7.3M-0.2%$760.93B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$42.8M$5.66+$5.0M+$7.9M-0.2%$5.69T
FMR LLC$36.5M$6.45+$15.5M+$21.8M-0.0%$1.89T
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$24.9M$3.20−$136K−$277K-0.4%$480.92B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$20.5M$5.64+$654K+$2.5M-0.2%$755.34B
Quantinno Capital Management LP$20.1M$7.33+$3.1M+$16.0M-0.4%$59.83B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$18.2M$5.44+$3.9M+$2.7M+1.2%$63.91B
Qube Research & Technologies Ltd$10.7M$6.67+$10.0M+$10.7M+0.3%$70.36B
Ethic Inc.$8.9M$4.31+$195K+$560K-0.5%$6.36B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$7.7M$4.70+$7.1M+$7.2M-0.1%$92.10B
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$6.8M$5.21−$4.7M+$1.8M-0.5%$127.40B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$6.7M$6.04+$829K+$3.0M+0.7%$645.81B
Trexquant Investment LP$5.8M$7.91+$5.4M+$5.8M-0.2%$13.81B
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$5.7M$6.93+$1.5M+$3.4M-0.2%$218.19B
Creative Planning$5.5M$5.86+$1.1M+$1.4M-0.7%$144.46B
Gradient Investments LLC$4.7M$7.89+$4.7M+$4.7M-0.3%$6.20B
Carrera Capital Advisors$4.5M$6.28−$1.3M+$1.8M+2.0%$649M
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
+0.56%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.56%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.14%
144 buyers · $0.07B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.10%
61 sellers · $0.03B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-13.9%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-8.6%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+0.5%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+4.4%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+2.4%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-0.5%
Holder mid (any stock)
-1.3%
Holder rally (any stock)
-1.4%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

013.1M26.3M39.4M52.6M$2.87$4.25$5.63$7.01$8.392021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Fisher Asset Management, LLC13.1MDONALD SMITH & CO., INC.13.2MMORGAN STANLEY10.6MGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC5.5MPARAMETRIC PORTFOLIO ASSOCIATES LLCFMR LLC4.6MARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP524KQuantinno Capital Management LP2.5MRENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC2.3MD. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.191K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
3
6
Buy: 3Hold: 6Consensus: Hold
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2026 Q4572.2B72.2B96.6B$31.74$31.74 – $31.741
2027 Q1584.6B73.7B105.4B$34.64$34.64 – $34.641
2027 Q2592.1B74.7B104.0B$34.17$34.17 – $34.171
2027 Q3599.6B75.6B105.9B$34.78$34.78 – $34.781
2027 Q4607.2B76.6B107.7B$35.40$35.40 – $35.401
2028 Q1614.8B77.5B109.6B$36.03$36.03 – $36.031
2028 Q2613.5B77.4B112.0B$36.81$36.81 – $36.811
2028 Q3621.1B78.3B114.0B$37.46$37.46 – $37.461
2028 Q4628.7B79.3B116.0B$38.12$38.12 – $38.121
2029 Q1636.5B80.3B118.1B$38.80$38.80 – $38.801

Corporate

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$4K
3 txns · 3 insiders · 484 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-03-25BUYIshizuka Masahirodirector238$8.05$2K$3K
2026-03-25BUYOgawa Shojidirector238$8.05$2K$2K
2026-03-25BUYOzaki Yukikoofficer: See Remarks8$8.05$64$504

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

19.9%retail-0.5pp
16.1%dark-0.8pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%40%50%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Nomura Holdings, Inc.: Opaque Level 3 Valuations and Regulatory Landmines

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
4/10
Insolvency
5/10
Earnings Overstated
6/10
Hidden Liabilities
8/10
Legal
9/10
Audit Warnings
2/10
Hidden Upside
4/10
Contextually Acceptable
6/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

Nomura reported a significant fiscal Q4 2026 earnings miss on April 24, 2026, with net income falling 19% quarter-over-quarter to 73.9 billion yen, well below the Bloomberg consensus of 98.9 billion yen. This miss triggered a stock decline of approximately 6% in a single session. The shortfall was primarily driven by asset writedowns in a research affiliate and a forestry company, alongside losses in the European division. Additionally, the company declared a full-year dividend of 51 yen, a decrease from 57 yen the prior year (Investing.com, MarketBeat).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on structural earnings volatility and the firm's inability to maintain momentum. While full-year numbers appeared record-breaking, the sharp Q4 deceleration in Wholesale pretax income (down 31%) and Investment Management reveals a lack of earnings conversion. High operating leverage means that any revenue dip—such as the 2% slide in Wholesale revenue—disproportionately crushes the bottom line. Furthermore, critics argue Nomura's return on equity (ROE) is largely cyclical and remains vulnerable to a reversal in the current favorable Japanese market conditions (AlphaStreet, Japan Times).

🚩 Red Flags

A major red flag is the high debt-to-equity ratio of 7.54, which significantly exceeds many global peers and amplifies risk during market volatility. Regulatory risks have also resurfaced; the firm was recently investigated for market manipulation in government bond futures, leading to its exclusion from several yen bond deals in late 2024. Furthermore, recent settlements with Nasdaq Phlx for supervisory and record-keeping failures (June 2025) suggest ongoing internal control weaknesses. Moody's has maintained a negative outlook on Nomura's rating, citing 'structural challenges' to profitability (MarketBeat, Global Business Leaders Mag).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Nomura faces an 'eroding dominance' in its home market as Japan's three megabanks (MUFG, SMBC, and Mizuho) aggressively muscle into investment banking and brokerage services. These rivals leverage vast lending power that Nomura cannot match. Simultaneously, low-cost digital brokerages are siphoning off the retail commission base just as Japanese households begin shifting savings into markets. In the international arena, the firm's modest $2.4 billion private credit exposure faces 'widening cracks' as global credit cycles turn, potentially leading to further writedowns (Japan Times, Seeking Alpha).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment has turned increasingly skeptical, evidenced by a 'noticeable increase' in bearish positioning against NMR in U.S. trading as of April 2026. While the firm claims recovering client interest in some segments, the rise in short interest signals that institutional traders are increasingly cautious about near-term visibility. Quantitative analysis from platforms like fffinstill has recently issued 'SELL' recommendations (conviction score 17/100) based on compressing margins and low returns on capital (Kalkine Media, fffinstill).

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q4 • 2026-04-24

Operator: Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Nomura Holdings Fourth Quarter and Full Year Operating Results for Fiscal Year Ended March 2026 Conference Call. Please be reminded that today's conference call is being recorded at the request of the hosting company. [Indiscernible] Please note that this telephone conference contains certain forward-looking statements and other projected results, which involve known and unknown risks, delays, uncertainties and other factors not under the company's control, which may cause actual results, performance or achievements of the company to be materially different from the results, performance or other expectations implied by these projections. Such factors include economic and market conditions, political events and investor sentiments, liquidity of secondary markets, level and volatility of interest rates, currency exchange rates, security valuations, competitive conditions and size, number and timing of transactions. With that, we'd like to begin the conference. Mr. Hiroyuki Moriuchi, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: This is Moriuchi, CFO. Thank you for joining us. I will now give you an overview of our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year for the fiscal year ended March 2026. Please turn to Page 2. First of all, our full year results. As you can see on the bottom left, group net revenue increased 15% year-on-year to JPY 2,167.7 billion, while income before income taxes grew 14% to JPY 539.8 billion, and net income increased 6% to JPY 362.1 billion, setting a record high for the second consecutive year. We achieved full year ROE of 10.1% on target for the second year in a row since we set our ROE target range of 8% to 10% or more by 2030. Four segment income before income taxes reached an all-time high of JPY 506.9 billion. Wealth Management and Wholesale drove company-wide earnings while both divisions achieving their highest income since their respective establishments. Wealth Management achieved growth of 23% in income before income taxes as the recurring revenue-based business model gained further momentum and major KPIs also saw substantial growth. Investment Management saw its assets under management rise by more than 50% over the year to around JPY 137 trillion, with a substantial increase in the stable business revenue base. Meanwhile, wholesale saw revenue growth across all regions and both Global Markets and Investment Banking achieved record high revenue, resulting in income growth of 21%. As for banking, it has steadily expanded its business base since the division was established and is making solid progress toward implementing deposit sweep. In view of our strong performance for the period ended March 26, we expect to pay an ordinary dividend of JPY 24 per share. This brings the annual dividend to JPY 51 per share for a dividend payout ratio of 41%. Next, let me give you an overview of the fourth quarter results. Please turn to Page 3. All the percentages I mention from here on are quarter-on-quarter comparisons. First of all, group net revenue rose 5% to JPY 577.2 billion. Income before income taxes fell 20% to JPY 107.7 billion, and net income was down 19% at JPY 73.9 billion. Earnings per share came to JPY 24.34 and ROE was 8%. While four segment net revenue rose income fell due to factors, including a decrease in the amount of profit recognized from affiliates in the Other segment as well as an impairment loss at an investee company in Investment Management. Next, please turn to Page 7, and I will present an overview of each business in the fourth quarter. As you can see in the top left, in Wealth Management, net revenue was more or less flat versus the previous quarter at JPY 133.1 billion, while income before income taxes exceeded the strong previous quarter, rising 5% to JPY 61.2 billion. The recurring revenue cost coverage ratio reached 72%, and the division achieved a high level of profitability with the margin on income before income taxes remaining above 40%, which is higher than the industry average. As shown on the bottom left, recurring revenue reached an all-time high of JPY 56.8 billion. Net inflows of recurring revenue assets remained at a high level, exceeding JPY 400 billion once again this quarter. Flow revenue was down slightly, but at JPY 76.4 billion remain high in absolute terms, second only to the level of the previous quarter as we were able to effectively support customers' need amid volatile market conditions. Next, I will give you an update on total sales by product. Please turn to Page 8. Total sales rose 75 quarter-on-quarter to around JPY 11.7 trillion. This was largely due to major tender offers totaling JPY 4 trillion. But even excluding this factor, total sales remained at a high level by product. Excluding the tender offers, sales of Japanese stocks remain high, thanks to a contribution from primary deals. Sales of bonds fell by 5%, while demand for foreign products was solid, sales of Japanese bonds fell slightly in the absence of primary deals. Sales of investment trust and discretionary investments, which constitute recurring revenue assets saw some fluctuations but remained at a high level as a flow from savings to investments continued. In insurance, meanwhile, sales of foreign currency-denominated products declined on weaker yen. Next, we take a look at KPIs on Page 9. Net inflow of recurring revenue assets shown on the top left were JPY 422.8 billion, the 16th straight quarter for inflows to exceed outflows. Recurring revenue assets at the end of March, shown on the top right, were down owing to market factors, but recurring revenue came to JPY 56.8 billion, a record high even when factoring out the receipt of half yearly investment advisory fees. As shown on the bottom left, number of flow business clients rose by around 200,000 from the previous quarter, reaching 1.74 million. Business was -- has been growing against the backdrop of high market volatility, primarily in face-to-face channels. Next is Investment Management. Please turn to Page 10. As seen on the top left, net revenue increased 42% to JPY 86.2 billion, and income before income taxes was more or less flat at JPY 18.1 billion. Business revenue, which is a stable type of revenue, was at an all-time high, owing to growth in existing business and the expansion of international business through acquisitions. At the same time, expenses related to acquired businesses and losses on impairment of our equity stake in an investee company were recognized. As an explanation of the breakdown of net revenues can be found on the bottom right. Solid asset management business in the aircraft leasing business, Nomura Babcock and Brown both contributed to the increase in business revenue, while investment gains related to American Century Investments rose quarter-on-quarter. Moving on to Page 11, we look at our asset management business as a backbone of business revenue. The graph on the upper left shows that assets under management hit an all-time high of JPY 136.9 trillion at the end of March. Shifting our focus on the bottom left, we see there were net outflows of JPY 279 billion. In the domestic investment trust business, which had inflows of JPY 816 billion, funds went mostly into Japanese equity products in the ETF category and into balanced funds, Japan equity active funds and private asset-related products in the investment trust category. In the domestic investment advisory international business, outflows came to about JPY 1 trillion, mainly from business targeted for acquisition. In line with the industry trends in the U.S., we expect funds to continue flowing from active-type mutual funds for now, but we aim to grow assets under management by boosting total sales and bringing net flows close to neutral as soon as possible with enhancements to making capabilities and expansion of active ETF SMA business opportunities. Alternative assets under management on the bottom right grew to a record high JPY 3.6 trillion, an increase of about JPY 300 billion from the end of December, of which fund inflows account for more than half. Next, wholesale. Please refer to Page 12. On the top left, you can see that wholesale net revenue fell 2% to JPY 308.1 billion and income before income taxes declined 31% to JPY 43.2 billion. Looking at the breakdown on the bottom left, Global Markets net revenue split 2% and Investment Banking net revenue fell 3%. Discussion by business line can be found on Page 13. Global Markets net revenue was down 2% at JPY 252.5 billion. Please find the middle section on the right. Fixed income revenue declined 8% to JPY 125.3 billion. In macro products, rates revenue was weak in the Americas with weak volatility rising, but rose in Japan. FX emerging revenue offset some of the weakness in rates revenue as client flows were accurately captured. In spread products, securitized products revenue remained high, mainly in Americas and fell quarter-on-quarter in AEJ. Credit revenue was unchanged despite widening spreads. Equities revenue was up 6% to JPY 127.2 billion. Equity products revenue reached a record high as revenue rose sharply in Japan and AEJ on strong financing and derivatives performance. Execution Services revenue rose in all regions, benefiting from a pickup in client activity. Please go to Page 14 next. As shown on the bottom left, investment banking net revenue came to JPY 55.6 billion, down 3%, but still at a high level. By product in advisory, revenue growth momentum continued based on involvement in many M&A deals, chiefly in Japan. The range of deals was varied and included domestic realignment, privatization and cross-border deals in financing and solutions, et cetera. ECM revenue rose slightly on contributions from large-scale CB and PO deals. Solutions business continued to perform well as it tapped demand for unwinding of cross-shareholdings holdings. Let's continue to banking on Page 15. On the top left, banking net revenue was up 6% at JPY 14.5 billion, and income before income taxes was down 27% at JPY 3.0 billion. Loans outstanding accumulated steadily due to -- during the quarter as recognition of loan products on offer grew. The investment trust balance grew, thanks to both market factors and establishment of new trust. Income fell as expenses rose, including spending on IT and a part of the standardization of business processes and recognition of taxes and public charges. We would like you to view this as an upfront investment aimed for future business expansion. Next, expenses page -- on Page 16. groupwide expenses were JPY 469.5 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 13% or JPY 53 billion. Extraordinary factors that boosted expenses include impairment losses associated with our equity stake in investee company, compensation and benefits accompanying changes to remuneration regulation and effects from changes to the method of presentation of financial statements. When these factors are excluded, we think it's evident that the cost structure in place is appropriate for the revenue growth. We aim to balance revenue growth and cost controls while making steady investment in growth. Next, Page 17 for financial position. As you can see in the bottom left, the common equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 12.9% at the end of March, down 0.1 points from 13.0% at the end of December. This concludes our overview of our fourth quarter results. In closing, we announced which -- lastly, please allow me to briefly talk about the situation related to private credit. First, our group's exposure is properly diversified and managed, breaking down our exposure in wholesale business, lender financing for private credit funds comes to about $800 million. and direct lending to SMEs comes to about $1.2 billion, while in investment management, investment holdings related to private credit come to about $400 million. Lender financing is backed by a diversified corporate credit portfolio and the credit fund counterparties are, by and large, supported by long-term capital provided by institutional investors and the like. Direct lending is diversified across more than 40 companies and investment management investments are also suitably diversified and have been performing stably. In closing, we announced reaching for sustainable growth, our vision for business in 2030 in May 2024 and set as numerical targets, a consistent attainment of ROE of 8% to 10% or more and income before income taxes of more than JPY 500 billion with the targets attained now in the span of 2 years. Great strides have been made to build the franchise required to realize sustained growth of the Nomura Group. I would like to briefly touch upon the situation as of now in April. In Wealth Management, net revenue is largely at the same level as in the fourth quarter. Uncertainty remains in the market due to geopolitical risk, but the flow of funds into products and services, assuming the long-term diversification of investments remains firm and client sentiment has been recovering. In wholesale, net revenue has been trending much higher than in the fourth quarter with equity markets rebounding sharply from the end of March and rising to new all-time highs. Client activity has picked up and equity products revenue has been strong. The rates has also been steadily monetizing client flows amid moderate market volatility. We aim to monetize business opportunities while keeping mindful of appropriate risk levels and cost controls. Your continued support is appreciated.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] The first question is from SMBC Nikko Securities, Muraki-san.
Masao Muraki: SMBC Nikko Muraki, I have 2 questions. First, international asset management company control. On Page 10, on the footnote, 4 years ago, investment had been made forest-related asset management investment was done and JPY 12 billion of losses have been booked this time around. Can you explain the backdrop? And on Page 11, Macquarie Asset Management. Regarding the cancellation of the agreement, there is a comment. But against the plan, how is the actual performance? That's my first question. Second question is with regards to capital, Page 17. The short question is, in the next quarter, what would be the CET1 ratio? This is the new fiscal year. So I think this is a quarter where you can quite easily leverage your balance sheet. In equity derivatives, you are taking significant credit risk and private credit, U.S. division portfolio has been increasing in the past few years, which is using your balance sheet. So what's your idea regarding the use of balance sheet? And how will that impact your CET1 ratio?
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Muraki. Then let me take the first question. First, international asset management-related question. You touched upon 2 points. The forestry asset management company, we made an investment 4 years ago. And what about the loss and the history that had led to this loss. Back then, when we made the investment, ESG -- global ESG trend was on the rise globally and in the United States. And we expected that this will become a major trend. And we were also advocating public to private, and we were trying to expand our private asset business. So those have been the objectives based upon which we made a decision to make an investment into this company. On the other hand, after the investment was made, as is well known to all of you, the ESG environment had significantly changed mainly in the United States. So that had triggered some difficulties in fundraising. This company itself, AUM is top 5 in forestry. So the health doesn't change. But in comparison to the plan we had drawn back when we made the investment, the growth has decelerated. So we had to book that based upon accounting standards, and that is why we've decided to book for impairment this time around. Carbon offset requirements from operating companies, there are funds that will be introduced and those initiatives are under study. So we are hoping to further accelerate this business in the coming months and years. So that's the backdrop. Now this company is booking profits at the moment. However, the growth of profit is slower than we had expected. And international Asset Management, your second point, net outflow, I touched upon that in the initial presentation. Against the plan, what is the current situation? That was your question. Net outflow itself. From the acquisition, U.S. traditional asset management company was the industry trend. So that had been factored into the valuation in making investments. And based upon that, what about the performance? In principle, onetime of investment or excluding onetime of costs, the original revenue and expense and EBITDA expected in the CEO Forum in December, we made a presentation at the pure earning power a quarter. So 1 quarter worth has been booked. On the other hand, -- as we mentioned on that occasion, towards integration, onetime of expenses have been booked and amortization of intangibles have also been booked. So more or less -- we are more or less in line with the original expectations. But in the mid- to long run, this net outflow will be minimized, and we have to achieve net inflow. So back when we hosted the CEO forum, active ETF transition, and we will also be making J-curve investments in order to expand the business. On your second question, CET1 ratio for the next quarter. Wholesale equity and SPPC balance sheet, use of the balance sheet. Those were the points that you touched upon. Regarding wholesale, as you know, self-funding -- based upon self-funding within the border of additional capital, balance sheet is used, RWA leverage exposure is used within that framework. So based upon the earning power, they are hoping to grow business in that quarter. But additional capital within self-funding -- additional capital is within self-funding. So CET1 ratio impact through business expansion is not that significant. And then within that, what would be the positioning of equity PC and credit business? In the mid- to long run, we want to have a balanced portfolio, and that policy remains unchanged. Of course, we want to grow equity, but regarding SPPC, we will be looking at certain opportunities, and we will not deviate from that policy and quantitative control will be in place as we try to manage our portfolio. I hope I answered your question.
Masao Muraki: Then in Q1, top line performance was good. CET1 ratio will not decline so significantly and ROE will improve. Is that the right interpretation?
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: CET1 ratio will not decline due to this factor. We don't think so. As you rightly pointed out, we are also hopeful that this will lead to improved ROE.
Operator: Next question comes from BofA Securities, Tsujino-san.
Natsumu Tsujino: Regarding personnel expense on a Q-on-Q basis, it's up by more than JPY 6 billion. But in the U.K. regulatory change, there was regulatory change. And from the third quarter, there has been a change made to the deferred compensation. So what's the impact coming from them? That's my question. And also, then in the first quarter, what is going to be the impact coming from them? Could you explain? Another question relates to global markets. In April compared to the fourth quarter, wholesale outperformed compared to the fourth quarter. In other words, I believe that's due to thanks to global markets performance and Japan equity was mentioned, and it may be the case for overseas as well. But could you speak more about geographical split, equity or FIC and something like that?
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Thank you, Tsujino-san, for your questions. Regarding personnel expense, in the fourth quarter, as you pointed out, or in the third quarter, we made the announcement, but deferred compensation change, so that had an impact. And as a result, in the fourth quarter, we booked a relevant impact. Compared to the third quarter, the impact, the amount is smaller. However, it's about the same as in the third quarter. In the third and fourth quarters, deferred compensation related expense is booked. But in the third quarter, I explained it, but there is a timing gap, timing difference in terms of bookings. So for the fourth quarter, in terms of the amount, it's smaller. And this year, the impact is going to get closer to 0. As for the compensation regulation relaxation in the U.K., I am skipping details, but it's one-off in nature. So it's similar to the difference, quite a slight in the booking timing. That's my answer regarding personnel costs. Regarding April, when wholesale performance improved compared to the fourth quarter. The main factors are as follows: In wholesale, mainly rates, equity products drove the outperformance. And in the fourth quarter, rates, especially from the middle of March based upon the turmoil in the Middle East, the risk had to be controlled. So it's not just about the end of year factors, but due to risk control, revenue slowed down. And in April, we saw the significant improvement. Equity product is continuously performing well. As for nations, please give me a moment. As for the geography -- geographical split, all regions compared to the fourth quarter, we see outperformance, but regions other than the U.S. are particularly outperforming. The U.S. is performing well, but compared to other regions, growth rate is relatively lower. I hope I answered your question.
Natsumu Tsujino: I have not captured everything, but U.S. was doing well as of the end of fiscal year -- previous fiscal year, if I am not mistaken, the U.S. business was strong. On the other hand, compared to the U.S. in the first quarter, growth is limited.
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Tsujino-san, sorry, I did not explain clearly, but bottom right on Page 12, you can find revenue by geography. In Americas, in the fourth quarter, revenue has come down relatively significantly in Americas compared to other regions. That's partially due to seasonality and also due to the impact from the Middle East. Since the middle of March, we had to control business. So especially macro business in Americas was particularly impacted and the timing didn't work well, especially the last 1 week of the month. And those -- that happened. And then the situation got relaxed. And then there has been a less tension after April, and we saw recovery.
Operator: The next question is Daiwa Securities, Watanabe-san.
Kazuki Watanabe: Daiwa Securities, Watanabe. I have 2 questions. First, private credit, $2.4 billion you explained. You also said diversification is in place, software by sector, can you give us some more detailed breakdown? And retail, private-related products, what is the redemption call? And what is your policy of sales going forward? And secondly, capital policy. You didn't announce any new buyback program. RSU, JPY 40 billion, it would be JPY 20 billion about buyback, 50% total return -- total payout ratio to shareholders. Is that the right interpretation?
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Watano-san, thank you very much. First of all, private credit sector diversification. So what is the picture? Overall, health care, business service, software and computer service, consumer, engineering and construction, these are the sectors included. Mostly health care and business service occupy quite a large proportion. Software, not necessarily high in terms of percentage. And on top of that, there is regional diversification in place as well. And regarding the second half of your first question, retail customers, private credit, what about the redemption and regarding sales policies, as client sentiments, there is some conservativeness. But at the moment, we are not seeing any calls for cancellation or requests. Originally -- or to begin with, when we sell to retail customers, we tell them that it's based upon the assumption of mid- to long-term investment. And when we obtain their understanding, we sell those products to them for the first time. So I think those communications have been effective so much so that there hasn't been any significant run. And on buyback and total payout ratio, first half, second half put together, full year RSU included 58%. Excluding RSU, it's beyond 50%. So I hope that answers your question.
Kazuki Watanabe: Regarding buyback, announcement timing, if there's an announcement in 4Q, that would be fiscal year '25.
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: The JPY 60 billion buyback program we announced in Q3, in Q4, we assumed the Q4 profit and we defined the amount based upon our assumption.
Operator: The next question comes from JPMorgan Securities, Sato-san.
Koki Sato: I am Sato from JPMorgan Securities. I have 2 questions. First question is about wholesale and wealth management expense outlook. In wholesale, performance was strong, and there was an adjustment made to the bonus, I believe. And as you explained, and there were onetime factors. So 83% of our cost-income ratio for the year and next following year onward, if top line is at the same level, then what kind of a level can we expect? And on the other hand, for wealth, in the fourth quarter, the performance was solid. The quarterly expense came down. So in this strong performance, I believe you are doing the payout to employees. And even in light of that, if this is the level you are achieving, then when recurring asset growth are bigger, then can we expect more leverage? So could you explain your outlook for expense for those 2 divisions? Secondly, in the third quarter related to laser digital loss was booked. At that time, risk control and net exposure reduction were explained. But in the fourth quarter period, what was the market situation -- based upon the market situation in the fourth quarter and based upon the result of the third quarter and what is the update on the effects achieved as a result of the countermeasure you have taken?
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Thank you for your question. First, outlook for -- the outlook for expense first, wholesale in the fourth quarter on a Q-on-Q basis, plus JPY 13 billion. Out of this increase, 30% is due to the compensation regulatory change and also end of the year performance-linked bonus adjustment. And then the last part is increase in the professional fee and the payment for services received. So the expense rate increased, but fixed cost was suppressed. So this fiscal year in the sense of the review of expense in the fourth quarter, wholesale, they had a few onetime items and also fees paid or professional fees. For example, SPPC pipeline -- so cost was incurred before the deal as we hired lawyers and the revenue recognition got delayed. So compared to the fourth quarter, we expect the expense level to come down. As for wealth management, we booked high level of margin. And can we expect the same level this year? As for this year, advanced investment in AI, also corporate cost increase due to inflation are expected. But continuously in Japan, for wealth management, we are going to tightly control cost. So even though there are timings when cost increases due to advanced investment, but it depends on revenues, but we expect we will be able to deliver a certain level of margin. And finally, regarding laser, in the third quarter, we troubled you and we got you worried with loss related to laser. But as you said, we have controlled risk volume and we have taken a more conservative stance. And in the fourth quarter, when we look at the market, Bitcoin and crypto market decline was the same level as in the third quarter. In terms of profit and loss, impact on consolidated result was limited. I hope I answered your question.
Koki Sato: Regarding the latter part of your answer, the situation in the crypto market and the impact on your profitability. Simply put, you've reduced the exposure. So the benefit you've received is as a result of reduced exposure and hedging or different ways of conducting market making. In other words, what I'm getting at is previously, you said you are not intending to downsize the business. So the exposure level, I think, will increase in the future. Even with that, you have a structure in place to prevent impact on profit?
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Thank you very much. Regarding trading, the market making, the absolute amount of risk has been reduced. And of course, there are venture capital investments and asset management seed capital with our own fund. So for those areas, in nontrading areas, we have long positions. So when we have progress in asset management business, then from seed capital, we will see that transfer to equity capital by investors -- LP investment.
Operator: The next question, SBI Securities, Otsuka-san.
Wataru Otsuka: Otsuka of SBI Securities. Is my voice coming through?
Operator: Yes.
Wataru Otsuka: Could I do one question and one answer. The first question is just for confirmation purposes, but wholesale, quarter-on-quarter basis, profits declined. What's the reason? Can you recap that? Revenue, as you had explained, global markets fixed income, Q4 seasonality factor and Iran had been quite significant and expenses, expertise fee and performance -- pay for performance. And so due to the revenue and expenses, 30% decline in profit. That's quite significant, but it wasn't a surprise to you. So that's my first question.
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Thank you very much. And you've made the situation very clear. So if we divide it between revenue and cost, as far as revenue is concerned, seasonality due to the end of the fiscal year, risk position was controlled. And on top of that, due to the Middle East situation, in the mid- to late March period, there was exacerbation quite rapidly. So we had to control defensive position, and that's the big factor for the reduction of revenue. And on the cost side, I slightly touched upon this in my presentation. But due to the review of the compensation regulation and also being the end of the fiscal year, part of it is timing gap, and there has been a onetime of increase. And the remainder is increase of fees payable to experts and for transactions. But regarding this factor, the original understanding regarding SPPC we were to add one product to the lineup. So the initial investment, that was within our control. But professional fees, we paid it earlier than booking the revenue. So this was a relatively high cost increase higher than we had expected. That's my personal view. I hope I answered your first question.
Wataru Otsuka: Sorry. One follow-up question. 86% expense ratio is slightly high. So there was the timing gap, but 83% for full year -- is that a normalized basis ratio?
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Q4, 86%. Obviously, it's quite significantly higher. And regarding expense ratio, rather than expense side, the impact from revenue is quite heavy. But at any rate, 86% is slightly higher than normal.
Wataru Otsuka: Second question, at the end, you mentioned ROE, 10% full year basis. And 8% to 10% or higher and stably performing such ROE, you've achieved that goal. On the other hand, if we look at banks and other Japanese financial institutions or more so regarding overseas financial institutions, 8% to 10% ROE isn't that high. So plus, don't you have an intention to elevate your goal? Isn't that discussed at the Board of Directors meeting? Can you touch upon such aspects? Thank you very much.
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Otsuka-san. Your point is very true, of course, in comparison to mega banks, Japanese for financial institutions and peers overseas from the perspective of being in the investment business, 8% to 10% plus level is just a midpoint. It's not the ultimate goal. Regarding this matter, in the deliberations for the budget, there is intensive discussion on this matter. So if there are any points that we need to review, in late May, we will have the Investors Day, so we may touch upon that aspect. Thank you. That concludes my response.
Wataru Otsuka: So your answer is you're discussing that point heavily, right?
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Yes, exactly.
Operator: The next question comes from UBS Securities, Niwa-san.
Koichi Niwa: I am Niwa. Can you hear me? Yes. Regarding wholesale cost and private asset initiatives of Nomura, I have a question about them. First, regarding wholesale cost this year and next year, on a run rate basis, what's the percentage? I do understand you have a medium-term goal. But given the environment where there is a strong cost increase pressure, what is your outlook? My second question is more long term than the earnings result. But in Americas, what's the future outlook of private asset market in the U.S.A. And on that basis, what is Nomura's strategy? So if it's in the initial phase, then there will be the room for expansion. And in the call today, listen to the tone of your explanation, it appears you remain positive. But looking at your peers, they are switching gears. So if you could give me some perspective on this, that's appreciated.
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: Thank you very much. Regarding your first question on wholesale cost control and cost/income ratio target, what is the rate of progress and what is our outlook for this year? And the cost pressure may be high, as you said. But as you said, the group-wide cost control has an important theme of how to manage inflation. So certain parts of this are unavoidable, but rather than absorbing taking them 100%. The theme is to look at where we can reduce cost in other areas. For example, through location strategy, offshore can be more effectively used. So we are considering approaches, including structural approaches so that we can suppress cost increase to a certain level. And regarding cost/income ratio, we would like to grow revenue at a rate that beats inflation. That's an important factor. And for business, this is more important. So in wholesale, ROI against additional capital needs to be increased to increase ROE. That's our intention. Secondly, regarding our outlook for private credit, we need to separate my answer for midterm and long term. Regarding private credit market itself, our view is positive. In the medium to long term, market has the potential to grow. On the other hand, both the bracket and our peers have pointed out repeatedly that in the short term, credit cycle needs to be monitored closely and the risks must be controlled tightly. We do acknowledge the need to do so. So earlier, I answered to a previously asked question. But in SPPC, we have a rich pipeline with attractive opportunities, but our stance is to take selective approach and medium- to long-term portfolio, in wholesale as a whole, we would like to control so that no single product stands out too much. So that kind of control will be needed, and we have an agreement in our approach with wholesale. That's all.
Koichi Niwa: Just one more thing from me. So mainly impact on you in terms of division, the impact is happening mainly in wholesale, not really in investment management, but wholesale is mainly impacted. in terms of product line?
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: So as for the existing P&L, especially risk side, wholesale portion is the biggest. So your understanding is fine. But as we think about medium- to long-term growth, asset management is the area. As we have said since 2020, we are closely looking at the market opportunities and not just private credit, but we look to grow private business. And as part of that, hopefully, private credit will grow. And wealth management based upon the principle of suitability, based upon the needs of our clients, we would like to steadily accumulate assets. And going back to the previous point, in the short term, we need to control risk for wholesale, that's as you pointed out.
Operator: We'd like to conclude question-and-answer session. If you have some more questions, please ask our Nomura Holdings IR department. In the end, we'd like to make closing address by Nomura Holdings. Once again, thank you for joining us.
Hiroyuki Moriuchi: As I have said a few times, for 2 successive years on a full year basis, we've renewed the net profit and ROE. Yes, there were some voices saying that this may not be enough, but we exceeded 10% and we were able to achieve the goal towards the 2030 vision 2 years upfront. Recurring asset increased banking division establishment, Macquarie asset management, acquisition, these investments were done in order to make a robust platform for future growth. That was what we've done in the past 12 months. So I think we will begin to monetize out of those initiatives, and therefore, we call upon you to provide your continued support. That was Moriuchi, CFO. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you for taking your time, and that concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.