Innoviva, Inc. engages in the development and commercialization of pharmaceuticals in the United States and internationally. Its products include RELVAR/BREO ELLIPTA, a once-daily combination medicine consisting of a LABA, vilanterol (VI), an inhaled corticosteroid (ICS), and fluticasone furoate; ANORO ELLIPTA, a once-daily medicine combining a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), umeclidinium bromide (UMEC), with a LABA, and VI; and TRELEGY ELLIPTA, a once-daily combination medicine consis
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 140.0 | 63.0 | -- | 35.0 | -- | 50.4 | -1.4 | 926.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 125.0 | 53.8 | -- | 28.8 | -- | 42.5 | -1.3 | 876.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 120.0 | 50.4 | -- | 26.4 | -- | 39.6 | -1.2 | 833.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 108.0 | 42.1 | -- | 20.5 | -- | 32.4 | -1.1 | 794.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 130.0 | 57.2 | -- | 31.2 | -- | 45.5 | -1.3 | 761.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 118.0 | 49.6 | -- | 26.0 | -- | 38.9 | -1.2 | 716.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 112.0 | 44.8 | -- | 22.4 | -- | 35.8 | -1.1 | 677.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 98.0 | 37.2 | -- | 17.6 | -- | 29.4 | -1.0 | 641.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 98.0 | 48.2 | 38.2 | 186.6 | 35.3 | 32.3 | -0.5 | 611.9 | 331.4 | 84.9 | 7.5% | 8.9x | 3.3x |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 118.1 | 208.5 | 39.0 | 164.2 | 54.5 | 53.4 | -1.1 | 550.9 | 0.0 | 85.3 | 12.2% | 63.0x | 1.6x |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 107.8 | 108.5 | 34.6 | 89.9 | 49.7 | 39.2 | -1.1 | 533.1 | 323.2 | 85.0 | 10.6% | 27.0x | 5.1x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 100.3 | 83.8 | -48.8 | 63.7 | 44.1 | 44.1 | -0.0 | 497.7 | 450.9 | 84.5 | -23.1% | 18.0x | 9.7x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 88.6 | -27.4 | -41.4 | -46.6 | 48.6 | 48.6 | -0.0 | 446.9 | 451.3 | 62.7 | -21.3% | -5.8x | 262.9x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 91.8 | 36.0 | 43.1 | 20.3 | 59.2 | 55.2 | -4.0 | 412.5 | 451.1 | 84.2 | 18.7% | 7.6x | 14.1x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 89.5 | 19.2 | 49.8 | 1.2 | 48.7 | 35.4 | -0.3 | 260.6 | 450.9 | 63.0 | 21.7% | 3.3x | 9.7x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 103.4 | -23.6 | 54.7 | -34.7 | 43.7 | 43.7 | -0.0 | 217.0 | 450.7 | 62.5 | 26.8% | -4.1x | 9.1x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 77.5 | 57.4 | 25.8 | 36.5 | 37.1 | 37.1 | -0.0 | 178.4 | 449.3 | 84.5 | 8.0% | 9.8x | 7.0x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 85.8 | 73.7 | 37.5 | 61.5 | 33.3 | 33.1 | -0.2 | 193.5 | 449.1 | 85.0 | 18.0% | 12.4x | 6.5x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 67.3 | 24.5 | 24.3 | 82.1 | 43.9 | 30.6 | -0.2 | 180.0 | 448.9 | 86.2 | 10.3% | 5.6x | 8.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 81.0 | 33.5 | 18.5 | 1.3 | 38.2 | 38.2 | -0.0 | 173.0 | 448.3 | 65.5 | 7.7% | 7.7x | 7.7x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 76.4 | 33.7 | 21.1 | 34.9 | 25.7 | 25.7 | -0.0 | 144.1 | 448.1 | 89.8 | 8.1% | 7.6x | 9.8x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 65.8 | 40.9 | 30.9 | -68.3 | 8.9 | 8.9 | -0.0 | 291.1 | 544.1 | 69.7 | 13.0% | 10.1x | 7.9x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 67.3 | 23.9 | 12.3 | 265.5 | 15.7 | 12.9 | -0.0 | 301.1 | 543.7 | 95.8 | 3.5% | 4.7x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 108.2 | 24.2 | 82.6 | 0.9 | 79.0 | 79.0 | -0.0 | 283.6 | 543.0 | 95.7 | 49.4% | 6.6x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 90.1 | 47.7 | 77.7 | 15.8 | 98.1 | 98.1 | -0.0 | 216.8 | 542.7 | 93.7 | 42.4% | 15.9x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13.25 | — | 41.3% | 137 | 7.9× | 5.4× | 3.8× | 2.5× |
| 2023 | 16.04 | -6.3% | 53.3% | 165 | 6.5× | 8.5× | 4.6× | 2.7× |
| 2024 | 17.35 | +16.6% | 24.6% | 89 | 14.1× | 7.3× | 52.1× | 3.4× |
| 2025 | 19.99 | +14.5% | 90.0% | 373 | 1.6× | 3.2× | 4.2× | 2.8× |
| TTM | 21.42 | +13.6% | 105.8% | 449 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 21.42 | +8.0% | 0.4% | 2 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 21.42 | +7.6% | 0.4% | 2 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Innoviva is a royalty-funded holding company attempting a high-risk pivot into specialty therapeutics and biotech venture investments. The GSK royalty stream is a genuine cash cow generating ~$220M/year in high-margin revenue, but it faces a hard expiration in 2029-2030. The IST product portfolio (Xacduro, Zevtera, upcoming Nuzolvence) is growing but operates in the notoriously difficult anti-infectives market with slow hospital adoption curves. Recent EPS beats are misleading — driven by non-recurring investment gains, not operational improvement. The 34% share dilution from convertible note conversion, proposed 10% equity incentive plan, aggressive VIE structures hiding losses at Armata, and Goldman's Sell rating with a $17 target all suggest the current ~$24 price may already embed optimistic assumptions. At 5x EV/FCF the stock looks optically cheap, but this is appropriate for a declining royalty stream with uncertain replacement revenues. The 4.2% dividend provides a floor, but the business model transition carries substantial execution risk.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | $7.50/$12.10 | 0 | --/$3.80 | 0 |
| $15.00 | $5.00/$9.70 | 0 | --/$1.85 | 0 |
| $17.50 | $2.50/$7.30 | 0 | --/$4.10 | 0 |
| $20.00 | $0.50/$5.20 | 0 | --/$0.90 | 2 |
| $22.50 | $0.20/$4.90 | 0 | $0.45/$1.70 | 0 |
| $25.00 | $0.10/$0.40 | 140 | $0.10/$4.90 | 0 |
| $30.00 | --/$1.35 | 3 | $5.40/$10.00 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 10.9% of float, sold 7.6%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (0 buying, 1 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $263M | $19.55 | +$14.7M | +$48.8M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $103M | $13.72 | +$1.8M | −$5.2M | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $98.4M | $23.30 | +$98.4M | +$98.4M | — | $1.91T |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $94.5M | $16.84 | −$3.6M | −$11.7M | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $73.2M | $23.30 | +$73.2M | +$73.2M | — | $4.04T |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $71.3M | $17.58 | +$6.1M | +$16.2M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $53.1M | $17.04 | +$15.6M | +$14.1M | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| Sarissa Capital Management LP | $49.7M | $12.73 | −$16.0M | −$16.0M | -4.1% | $158M |
| SYSTEMATIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LP | $47.2M | $14.21 | −$2.1M | −$1.1M | -0.6% | $4.33B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $45.0M | $18.21 | +$4.1M | +$11.9M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $44.5M | $17.59 | −$7.7M | +$5.5M | +0.7% | $193.48B |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | $44.0M | $18.55 | −$11.0M | +$22.5M | +0.1% | $184.72B |
| Boston Partners | $40.0M | $17.57 | +$4.0M | +$25.5M | +0.5% | $95.40B |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $37.7M | $18.48 | +$2.3M | +$5.3M | -0.1% | $1.36T |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $37.1M | $17.81 | +$11.0M | +$5.6M | -0.2% | $760.93B |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | $35.1M | $18.21 | +$2.6M | +$31.9M | +0.6% | $92.71B |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $34.6M | $18.85 | +$15.0M | +$19.0M | -0.9% | $117.03B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $30.5M | $17.37 | −$2.5M | +$5.3M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $27.1M | $17.08 | +$3.3M | +$12.9M | +0.7% | $645.81B |
| ROYCE & ASSOCIATES LP | $24.7M | $19.39 | +$3.3M | +$23.1M | -0.9% | $10.09B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 36.2%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 91M | 70M | 39M | $0.46 | $0.40 – $0.51 | 2 |
| 2025 Q4 | 103M | 79M | 47M | $0.55 | $0.31 – $0.78 | 2 |
| 2026 Q1 | 102M | 78M | 33M | $0.39 | $0.38 – $0.40 | 1 |
| 2026 Q2 | 111M | 85M | 36M | $0.42 | $0.41 – $0.43 | 1 |
| 2026 Q3 | 113M | 87M | 42M | $0.50 | $0.49 – $0.51 | 1 |
| 2026 Q4 | 119M | 91M | 46M | $0.54 | $0.53 – $0.55 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 123M | 94M | 46M | $0.55 | $0.53 – $0.56 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 134M | 103M | 55M | $0.65 | $0.63 – $0.67 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 133M | 102M | 53M | $0.62 | $0.61 – $0.64 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 139M | 107M | 56M | $0.66 | $0.64 – $0.68 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Royalty | $55.2M | -5% |
| Product | $41.4M | +37% |
| License And Other Revenue | $1.5M | +167% |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Innoviva, Inc.: Investment Vehicle Masked as a Biotech Driven by Level 3 Paper Gains
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In early 2026, Innoviva reported record Q4 2025 results with a GAAP EPS of $1.94, significantly beating the $0.34 estimate; however, analysts noted the results were heavily bolstered by a large, non-recurring gain rather than sustainable operational growth. The company also announced the FDA approval of Nuzolvence (zoliflodacin) for gonorrhea, with a commercial launch planned for H2 2026, and is seeking shareholder approval for a new 2026 Equity Incentive Plan that could lead to a 10% share dilution (9 million shares).
The core bear thesis centers on the 'patent cliff' for Innoviva's primary revenue driver: the respiratory royalty stream from GSK (Breo and Anoro), which begins to face generic erosion and expiration between 2029 and 2030. Bears argue that the company is struggling to replace this high-margin income with its internal specialty therapeutics (IST) platform, which operates in the notoriously difficult and low-margin infectious disease market. Critics point out that recent earnings 'beats' are unsustainable 'paper gains' from its investment portfolio rather than core product performance.
Short interest has recently climbed to 9.41% of the public float (approx. 6.8 million shares) with a high 10.9 days-to-cover, indicating growing institutional skepticism. Goldman Sachs initiated a 'Sell' rating with a $17.00 price target, citing concerns over earnings quality and long-term royalty decay. Furthermore, the company's recent proxy filing for a 10% dilutive equity plan raises governance concerns regarding capital allocation and shareholder value preservation.
Innoviva faces intensifying competition in the antibiotic space where high mortality rates for infections like MRSA and the rapid rise of antibiotic resistance limit the market potential and pricing power of its assets like Xacduro and Zevtera. Additionally, as legacy respiratory patents expire, the entry of low-cost generics will directly cannibalize the royalty revenues that currently fund Innoviva's strategic investments.
Sentiment in the critical care and infectious disease community is cautious; while new treatments like Zevtera are welcomed, the high clinical failure rates and strict hospital stewardship protocols for new antibiotics often result in slower-than-expected commercial uptake. Investors have expressed 'mixed' reactions to the IST pivot, with many remaining focused on the eventual loss of the predictable GSK royalty cash flows.