IDYA
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc., a synthetic lethality-focused precision medicine oncology company, focuses on the discovery and development of targeted therapeutics for patient populations selected using molecular diagnostics. The company's lead product candidates include IDE397, a methionine adenosyltransferase 2a inhibitor that is in Phase I clinical trial for patients with solid tumors having methylthioadenosine phosphorylase deletions; and IDE196, a protein kinase C inhibitor that is in Phase I/II
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 20.0 | -84.0 | -- | -76.0 | -- | -79.0 | -0.4 | 69.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 18.0 | -82.8 | -- | -75.6 | -- | -78.3 | -0.4 | 148.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 16.0 | -81.6 | -- | -74.4 | -- | -77.6 | -0.3 | 226.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 14.0 | -79.8 | -- | -73.5 | -- | -76.3 | -0.4 | 304.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 15.0 | -78.0 | -- | -71.3 | -- | -74.3 | -0.3 | 380.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 13.0 | -76.1 | -- | -69.6 | -- | -72.8 | -0.3 | 455.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 14.0 | -74.9 | -- | -68.6 | -- | -71.4 | -0.3 | 527.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 12.0 | -75.0 | -- | -69.0 | -- | -72.0 | -0.3 | 599.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 6.6 | -107.4 | -108.5 | -98.5 | -75.2 | -76.1 | -1.0 | 671.2 | 28.6 | 88.7 | -66.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 10.9 | -93.4 | -94.6 | -83.3 | -90.5 | -90.8 | -0.3 | 639.4 | 55.5 | 88.6 | -48.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 207.8 | 120.3 | 108.5 | 119.2 | 142.2 | 142.2 | -0.0 | 786.9 | 27.3 | 89.7 | 52.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.0 | -76.3 | -88.8 | -77.5 | -62.5 | -63.1 | -0.7 | 669.7 | 26.6 | 88.5 | -50.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 0.0 | -71.1 | -84.4 | -72.2 | -60.3 | -61.7 | -1.3 | 692.5 | 26.0 | 88.4 | -43.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 7.0 | -129.7 | -144.1 | -130.3 | -121.7 | -122.8 | -1.1 | 676.3 | 19.2 | 87.3 | -70.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 0.0 | -50.8 | -66.9 | -51.8 | -49.2 | -49.7 | -0.5 | 920.0 | 18.8 | 86.2 | -27.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.0 | -51.7 | -64.9 | -52.8 | -32.9 | -33.9 | -1.0 | 701.7 | 1.9 | 78.0 | -37.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.0 | -38.5 | -51.0 | -39.6 | -43.8 | -45.1 | -1.3 | 698.8 | 2.4 | 75.1 | -28.4% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 3.9 | -32.9 | -41.9 | -34.0 | -23.8 | -24.6 | -0.8 | 525.1 | 2.9 | 65.3 | -40.9% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 8.0 | -26.5 | -33.5 | -27.4 | -30.2 | -30.8 | -0.6 | 468.8 | 2.1 | 60.0 | -44.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 3.5 | -26.9 | -32.7 | -27.9 | -33.5 | -34.3 | -0.9 | 493.7 | 2.6 | 56.3 | -43.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 7.9 | -22.7 | -26.3 | -23.6 | -27.8 | -27.9 | -0.0 | 339.5 | 3.0 | 48.4 | -78.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 4.0 | -23.6 | -26.4 | -24.2 | -23.4 | -23.4 | -0.0 | 364.8 | 3.5 | 48.1 | -69.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 29.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 1.6 | -24.2 | -25.3 | -1.1 | 386.2 | 3.9 | 41.1 | 1.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 5.9 | -20.9 | -22.5 | -22.1 | -20.0 | -21.9 | -1.9 | 268.6 | 4.4 | 38.7 | -116.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 11.4 | -13.6 | -14.2 | -14.0 | -19.7 | -20.1 | -0.4 | 252.6 | 4.8 | 38.6 | -57.7% | -- | -- |
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
IDEAYA is a high-quality clinical-stage biotech with a differentiated synthetic lethality platform and strong partnerships (GSK, Pfizer, Gilead, Servier). However, the stock trades at $3.1B market cap (~$2.5B EV) with $639M cash, implying the market assigns ~$1.9B to the pipeline. Darovasertib in uveal melanoma faces KOL skepticism on functional vision endpoints, IDE397 carries significant clinical risk after the Amgen partnership dissolution, and the company enters a catalyst desert through mid-2026. With 10.7% short interest rising, 21% dilution overhang from reserved shares, quarterly cash burn of $70-80M, and only ~8-9 quarters of cash runway before needing to raise capital, risk/reward is unfavorable at current prices. The pipeline has legitimate upside optionality but probability-weighted NPV does not support the current valuation premium to cash.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20.00 | $7.10/$12.00 | 1 | $0.10/$0.35 | 522 |
| $22.50 | $5.10/$9.80 | 8 | --/$4.90 | 27 |
| $25.00 | $3.10/$7.90 | 8 | --/$2.00 | 644 |
| $27.50 | $1.65/$6.50 | 0 | --/$4.90 | 0 |
| $30.00 | $0.10/$4.90 | 13 | $1.05/$5.90 | 229 |
| $32.50 | --/$4.90 | 0 | $2.55/$7.40 | 0 |
| $35.00 | --/$3.20 | 13 | $4.50/$9.30 | 783 |
| $37.50 | --/$4.90 | 1 | $6.50/$11.40 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 7.2% of float, sold 5.4%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (0 buying, 1 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | $439M | $39.79 | +$738K | +$1.4M | +0.3% | $1.89T |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $281M | $30.05 | +$7.8M | −$23.8M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC | $242M | $29.17 | +$2.6M | +$28.8M | +1.5% | $209.29B |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $172M | $24.16 | −$3.9M | +$80.9M | +0.4% | $644.55B |
| BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | $131M | $22.53 | +$10.9M | +$96.1M | -0.5% | $16.13B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $126M | $28.69 | −$11.8M | +$11.2M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| Logos Global Management LP | $115M | $22.00 | +$10.8M | −$1.7M | -1.8% | $1.94B |
| FEDERATED HERMES, INC. | $99.5M | $30.94 | −$13.6M | −$59.3M | -1.1% | $61.33B |
| ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C. | $94.1M | $22.14 | +$783K | +$54.5M | -0.1% | $64.61B |
| Fiera Capital Corp | $84.2M | $35.72 | +$3.0M | +$43.9M | -0.2% | $29.02B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $83.3M | $29.71 | +$14.2M | +$14.0M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $62.0M | $29.00 | +$20.3M | +$5.8M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $55.2M | $27.97 | −$3.8M | +$28.0M | -0.2% | $760.93B |
| DEERFIELD MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. (SERIES C) | $51.0M | $21.52 | −$20.8M | −$57.9M | -0.9% | $7.18B |
| GSK plc | $44.4M | $34.57 | +$0 | +$44.4M | -22.9% | $599M |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $44.4M | $26.12 | +$13.1M | +$41.7M | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | $43.8M | $31.07 | −$4.4M | −$72.0M | -0.2% | $864.93B |
| Sofinnova Investments, Inc. | $37.7M | $23.80 | +$8.2M | −$49.7M | +2.7% | $1.94B |
| Candriam Luxembourg S.C.A. | $36.9M | $28.64 | +$2.5M | +$5.6M | +0.0% | $19.11B |
| BNP Paribas Asset Management Holding S.A. | $36.7M | $31.38 | +$13.4M | +$36.7M | -1.1% | $85.48B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
Top-5 holders · 42.4%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Related Stocks
Investors who own this also own
Stocks held by the same active managers as this one, ranked by score — how much more often these appear together than random chance (1× = baseline). Excludes index ETFs and market makers; minimum 3 shared holders.
| Ticker | Name | Co-holders | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCUL | Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. | 3 | 151.24× |
| TNGX | Tango Therapeutics, Inc. | 3 | 141.16× |
| RYTM | Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 3 | 132.33× |
| ERAS | Erasca, Inc. | 3 | 117.63× |
| CELC | Celcuity Inc. | 3 | 105.87× |
| XENE | Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 3 | 100.83× |
| CYTK | Cytokinetics, Incorporated | 4 | 88.22× |
| RVMD | Revolution Medicines, Inc. | 6 | 78.42× |
| UTHR | United Therapeutics Corporation | 4 | 72.39× |
| COGT | Cogent Biosciences, Inc. | 3 | 64.16× |
| TERN | Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 3 | 51.64× |
Analyst Coverage
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | BUY | Stein Jeffrey | director | 50,000 | $32.96 | $1.65M | $1.79M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Research and Development Services | $155.3M | NEW |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
IDEAYA Biosciences: Robust Cash Reserves Masking Billion-Dollar Success Taxes and Lost Partner Synergy
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In February 2026, IDEAYA reported a significant Q4 2025 net loss of $83.3 million, with revenue plunging to $10.9 million from a milestone-inflated $207.8 million in the previous quarter. Analysts subsequently slashed 2026 revenue estimates by 21%, forecasting a staggering 82% decline in sales as the company enters a 'catalyst desert' for its lead programs (Sources: Simply Wall St, Futu News).
The bear thesis centers on the clinical translation risk of darovasertib; while it shows tumor shrinkage, Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) expressed skepticism that this will translate into a meaningful reduction in vision loss for the larger pool of brachyradiotherapy patients. Additionally, Leerink Partners downgraded the stock to $27, citing a lack of near-term catalysts and high uncertainty surrounding the IDE397 program (Source: Seeking Alpha, Leerink Partners).
Short interest has surged by over 7% recently, reaching 11.67% of the public float (approx. 10 million shares), signaling growing institutional bets against the stock. The company's extreme earnings volatility—flipping from a profit in Q3 to a heavy loss in Q4—highlights a heavy reliance on lumpy collaboration payments rather than sustainable commercial revenue (Source: MarketBeat, Simply Wall St).
IDEAYA faces intensifying competition in the MTAP-deletion space. While it ended its partnership with Amgen to pursue its own PRMT5 inhibitor (IDE892), it now competes directly with Amgen's MTA-cooperative PRMT5 inhibitors. Furthermore, regulatory instability at the FDA, including high-level resignations and staff cuts in oncology review divisions, poses a systemic risk to the approval timeline for darovasertib (Source: Seeking Alpha, Investing.com).
KOL and physician sentiment is cautious; feedback indicates that 'eye preservation' metrics in clinical trials may not meet the functional requirements of patients if they do not also prevent significant vision loss, which remains an unproven endpoint for the broader patient population (Source: Leerink Partners/MEDACorp).