Stocks/GALT

GALT

Galectin Therapeutics Inc.
Healthcare·Biotechnology
$2.52
$166M market cap
Claude Rating
2/10SHORT
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-20.1M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$1.25
Upside
-50.4%

Galectin Therapeutics Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research and development of therapies for fibrotic, cancer, and other diseases. The company's lead product candidate is belapectin (GR-MD-02) galectin-3 inhibitor, a galactoarabino-rhamnogalacturonan polysaccharide polymer that is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of liver fibrosis associated with fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis, as well as for the treatment of cance

2-Year Price History

$2.50-3.8%
$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.0$6.0volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.014.1----------
Est2027-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.014.1----------
Est2027-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.014.1----------
Est2027-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.014.1----------
Est2026-Q40.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.014.1----------
Est2026-Q30.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.014.1----------
Est2026-Q20.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.014.1----------
Est2026-Q10.00.0--0.0--0.0-0.014.1----------
Act2026-Q10.0-4.1-4.1-5.1-3.9-3.9-0.014.1135.765.8-12.0%-2.0x--
Act2025-Q40.0-3.5-3.4-5.5-6.0-6.0-0.017.7133.863.9-10.1%-1.8x--
Act2025-Q30.0-6.4-4.2-8.2-3.5-3.5-0.011.5122.364.2-13.7%-3.5x--
Act2025-Q20.0-5.7-4.6-7.5-6.6-6.6-0.013.8120.563.5-15.3%-3.1x--
Act2025-Q10.0-7.9-7.9-9.6-7.7-7.7-0.07.4108.063.2-29.3%-4.5x--
Act2024-Q40.0-10.2-12.4-12.0-12.8-12.8-0.015.1106.362.7-46.8%-5.9x--
Act2024-Q30.0-9.7-9.1-11.2-8.5-8.5-0.027.1104.662.3-34.7%-6.5x--
Act2024-Q20.0-11.1-11.3-12.4-8.3-8.3-0.025.693.562.2-48.3%-8.7x--
Act2024-Q10.0-10.4-9.7-11.5-12.1-12.1-0.023.682.562.0-46.8%-9.9x--
Act2023-Q40.0-9.1-9.6-10.0-4.7-4.7-0.025.771.860.2-53.3%-10.8x--
Act2023-Q30.0-9.6-9.2-10.4-7.6-7.6-0.020.461.259.7-59.6%-11.5x--
Act2023-Q20.0-8.5-9.0-9.1-9.8-9.8-0.018.060.459.6-59.6%-13.0x--
Act2023-Q10.0-11.0-10.3-11.5-10.8-10.8-0.017.850.059.5-82.7%-24.0x--
Act2022-Q40.0-10.3-10.6-10.6-7.2-7.2-0.018.639.959.4-106.7%-33.5x--
Act2022-Q30.0-8.3-8.1-8.6-8.4-8.4-0.015.829.959.4-108.8%-30.9x--
Act2022-Q20.0-9.4-9.7-9.6-7.4-7.4-0.024.229.659.4-130.5%-41.0x--
Act2022-Q10.0-9.7-9.9-9.9-8.0-8.0-0.031.629.359.4-135.7%-42.7x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
20221.13-38n/mn/mn/m
20231.66-38n/mn/mn/m
20241.29-41n/mn/mn/m
20254.16-23n/mn/mn/m
TTM2.52-200.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E2.520
2027E2.520

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude2/10SHORTFV: $1.25

GALT is a deeply speculative pre-revenue biotech with a single clinical-stage asset (belapectin) that failed its primary ITT endpoint in the NAVIGATE trial. While per-protocol subgroup analyses showed promising efficacy (49-68% reduction in new varices), the regulatory path is highly uncertain — FDA has not confirmed surrogate endpoint acceptance for a pivotal trial. The balance sheet is catastrophic: $138M in liabilities (mostly convertible debt from Chairman Uihlein) against $11.5M cash and zero revenue. The company is functionally insolvent without continued insider support, and the 49.87M potential shares from convertible notes represent massive dilution (nearly equal to the current 64M shares outstanding). Even if belapectin works, shareholders face a tortuous path of continued dilution, regulatory uncertainty, and years before any possible revenue. The $200M market cap prices in meaningful probability of success that is not supported by the clinical or financial evidence. Net insider selling and 10.5% short interest confirm institutional skepticism.

Catalyst FDA acceptance of surrogate endpoints for a pivotal belapectin trial, or a partnership/licensing deal with a larger pharma company that validates the asset and provides non-dilutive funding. A positive pivotal trial readout would be transformative but is 3+ years away.
Risk The company runs out of cash before securing regulatory clarity on a pivotal trial path, forcing deeply dilutive financing or Uihlein conversion at $3.00/share that destroys existing equity value. Alternatively, FDA rejects the surrogate endpoint approach entirely, rendering the NAVIGATE data insufficient for approval.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
3/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$2.52
Market Cap$166M
Enterprise Value$288M
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-12.1%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution4.1%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-26.3M
Free Cash Flow$-20.1M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-12.8%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage-2.6x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$0.00
-100.0% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$0M
− Net Debt$122M
= Fair Equity$0M
Revenue Growth0.0% → 5.0%
FCF Margin0.0% → 10.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float15.7%
Short Shares7.4M
Days to Cover24.7
Change (vs Prior)-1.0%
Short % Float History
15.70%-2.30pp
10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)--
Put IV (ATM)152%
ATM Spread--
Call $OI (near money)$172K
Put $OI (near money)$13K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$2.5
Major Expirations1
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$2.50--/$0.65672$0.25/$0.90138
$5.00--/$0.1510,566$2.00/$3.2023
$7.50--/$0.25714$4.40/$5.600
$10.00--/$0.05241$6.50/$8.400
$12.50--/$0.201,912$9.00/$10.900
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+0.0%
Forward FCF Margin0.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin0.0%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage--
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds30%
Est. Borrow Rate100.0%
Terminal EV/FCF15.0x
LT Growth5.0%
LT FCF Margin10.0%

Employees

Headcount15
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$-133
2022: 12 → 2023: 14 → 2024: 15 → 2025: 9 (-9% CAGR)

Cash Runway

8.4months
CRITICAL

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 8.4% of float, sold 1.2%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+7.2% of float (net)
Bought 8.4% · Sold 1.2%
105 filers reported (last quarter: 102)

Ownership composition

Active
15.0%(+11.3% YoY)
86 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
6.8%(+3.3% YoY)
7 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
1.3%(+1.3% YoY)
5 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
10.7%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$5.5M$2.79+$5.5M+$5.5M$4.04T
MARSHALL WACE, LLP$3.4M$3.46+$1.7M+$3.4M+0.6%$92.71B
ADVISOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.$3.1M$1.90+$90K−$281K-0.3%$67.63B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$2.2M$2.71+$7K−$1.7M-0.2%$5.69T
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$2.2M$2.82+$1.6M+$2.2M-0.5%$127.40B
Wealthspire Advisors, LLC$2.0M$2.66+$334K+$902K-0.3%$12.72B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$1.7M$2.29+$41K−$670K+2.3%$1.61T
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM$1.6M$2.81+$750K+$1.5M-0.6%$77.14B
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$1.3M$2.79+$1.3M+$1.3M-0.9%$117.03B
COMMONWEALTH EQUITY SERVICES, LLC$1.0M$2.10+$92K+$306K-0.3%$71.14B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$849K$2.79+$849K+$849K$395.83B
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$810K$2.32+$611K+$810K-0.4%$138.22B
LPL Financial LLC$745K$1.82−$162K+$206K-0.2%$372.65B
Vivaldi Capital Management, LLC$721K$2.73+$152K+$566K+0.0%$723M
STATE STREET CORPPassive$721K$2.54+$45K−$61K-0.2%$2.89T
Geneos Wealth Management Inc.$672K$1.26−$7K−$509K-0.6%$4.30B
Sovran Advisors, LLC$585K$2.10+$89K+$132K-0.6%$1.25B
JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM$544K$2.49−$12K+$544K-0.1%$92.10B
RETIREMENT GUYS FORMULA LLC$522K$2.06+$7K+$88K-0.2%$216M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$515K$3.81−$342K+$486K-0.2%$760.93B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-0.20%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.20%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.11%
29 buyers · $0.01B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.42%
24 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 83% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+9.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+17.7%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-6.3%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+5.8%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+6.1%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-6.7%
Holder mid (any stock)
-5.8%
Holder rally (any stock)
-7.0%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

01.4M2.8M4.2M5.5M$1.13$1.91$2.69$3.46$4.242021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
ADVISOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.1.1MMARSHALL WACE, LLP1.2MWealthspire Advisors, LLC722KMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC798KGeneos Wealth Management Inc.241KLPL Financial LLC267KCOMMONWEALTH EQUITY SERVICES, LLC367KTWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP467KGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC185KRENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC148K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Year (1 analysts)$11.0033650.0%
Current Price$2.52
Analyst Ratings
9
2
Buy: 9Hold: 2Consensus: Buy
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q30M0M-7M$-0.11$-0.11 – $-0.111
2025 Q436M0M-7M$-0.10$-0.10 – $-0.101
2026 Q10M0M-4M$-0.06$-0.06 – $-0.061
2026 Q20M0M-6M$-0.09$-0.09 – $-0.091
2026 Q30M0M-7M$-0.10$-0.10 – $-0.101
2026 Q40M0M-7M$-0.10$-0.10 – $-0.101

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2022-2024)

Direct Pay$9.8M
Incentive & Other$1.6M
Total Compensation$11.3M
% of Revenue0.0%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$40K
5 txns · 2 insiders · 12,500 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$3.29M
32 txns · 4 insiders · 616,934 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$2.27M
5 txns · 1 insider · 402,750 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-02-06BUYELDRED KARYdirector300$2.70$810$177K
2026-01-06SELLCALLICUTT JACK Wofficer: Chief Financial Officer20,354$3.67$75K$28K
2026-01-06SELLJamil Khurramofficer: Chief Medical Officer21,446$3.65$78K$0
2026-01-06SELLLEWIS JOELdirector, officer: President and CEO37,698$3.58$135K$2.98M
2026-01-05SELLCALLICUTT JACK Wofficer: Chief Financial Officer25,732$3.90$100K$109K
2026-01-05SELLJamil Khurramofficer: Chief Medical Officer25,499$3.90$99K$84K
2026-01-05SELLLEWIS JOELdirector, officer: President and CEO27,731$3.91$108K$3.40M
2026-01-02SELLCALLICUTT JACK Wofficer: Chief Financial Officer13,914$4.20$58K$225K
2026-01-02SELLJamil Khurramofficer: Chief Medical Officer13,055$4.20$55K$197K
2026-01-02SELLLEWIS JOELdirector, officer: President and CEO18,571$4.20$78K$3.77M
2025-12-31SELLJamil Khurramofficer: Chief Medical Officer8,125$4.07$33K$0
2025-12-23BUYELDRED KARYdirector700$3.73$3K$244K
2025-12-23BUYFREEMAN KEVIN Ddirector5,500$3.55$20K$196K
2025-12-17SELLJamil Khurramofficer: Chief Medical Officer8,500$7.04$60K$0
2025-12-17SELLLEWIS JOELdirector, officer: President and CEO7,829$7.06$55K$5.87M
2025-12-17SELLShlevin Harold H.director24,499$7.04$172K$46K
2025-12-16SELL10X Fund, L.P.10 percent owner30,681$6.66$204K$37.39M
2025-12-15SELLShlevin Harold H.director8,417$6.30$53K$71K
2025-12-12SELLShlevin Harold H.director19,793$6.27$124K$70K
2025-12-09SELLShlevin Harold H.director16,790$6.27$105K$70K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

29.6%retail+1.0pp
16.7%dark-1.3pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%80%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

GALECTIN THERAPEUTICS INC.: A Related-Party Debt Trap with 82% Potential Dilution

Overall Risk
9/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
10/10
Insolvency
9/10
Earnings Overstated
5/10
Hidden Liabilities
6/10
Legal
4/10
Audit Warnings
7/10
Hidden Upside
2/10
Contextually Acceptable
3/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In November 2025, Galectin presented compelling Phase 2b/3 NAVIGATE trial results at AASLD, showing that its lead candidate, belapectin (2 mg/kg), significantly reduced the incidence of new esophageal varices in patients with MASH cirrhosis. Specifically, a per-protocol analysis revealed a 68% reduction in new varices in U.S. patients and a 49% reduction overall. In March 2026, the company announced a virtual KOL event to further discuss the clinical path forward for MASH cirrhosis treatment (Sources: Stock Titan, MarketBeat, GuruFocus).

🐻 Bear Case

The core of the short thesis rests on the NAVIGATE trial's failure to meet its primary intent-to-treat (ITT) endpoint, which creates significant regulatory uncertainty. Skeptics argue the company is 'data mining' by focusing on per-protocol subgroups. Furthermore, GALT remains a pre-revenue clinical-stage firm with a persistent net loss ($47.2M in 2024) and a balance sheet burdened by over $122M in debt and convertible notes (Sources: Seeking Alpha, TipRanks).

🚩 Red Flags

Financial instability is a primary concern, with the current cash runway only extending through mid-2026, largely supported by insider-provided debt. The reliance on an unsecured convertible line of credit from Chairman Richard Uihlein introduces significant dilution risk for common shareholders. Additionally, the FDA has not yet confirmed acceptance of the company's proposed surrogate endpoints for a pivotal trial (Sources: FirstWord Pharma, Seeking Alpha).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

GALT faces intense competition in the crowded MASH (formerly NASH) space from larger pharmaceutical companies. While GALT targets the specific niche of compensated cirrhosis and portal hypertension, the broader market includes competitors like Akero and Madrigal (Rezdiffra), which could capture patient share or investment capital if GALT's regulatory path remains murky (Sources: TipRanks, Public.com).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among trial investigators is notably positive; the NAVIGATE trial was oversubscribed, suggesting high clinical interest and confidence in the drug's safety profile (no serious drug-related AEs). While retail sentiment is polarized, institutional confidence is reflected in recent position increases by funds like Marshall Wace and Vanguard, who increased their allocations in late 2025 despite the primary endpoint miss (Sources: Nasdaq, Public.com).