Stocks/FCBC

FCBC

First Community Bankshares, Inc.
Financial Services·Banks - Regional
$43.11
$813M market cap
Claude Rating
5/10HOLD
Revenue
$175.2M
Free Cash Flow
$33.9M
Rev Growth
+4.0%
FCF Margin
19.3%
P/FCF
24.0x
EV/FCF
-1.5x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
-0.8x
Fair Value
$39.00
Upside
-9.5%

First Community Bankshares, Inc. operates as the financial holding company for First Community Bank that provides various banking products and services. It offers demand deposit accounts, savings and money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and individual retirement arrangements; commercial, consumer, and real estate mortgage loans, as well as lines of credit; various credit and debit cards, and automated teller machine card services; and corporate and personal trust services. The company

2-Year Price History

$42.38+44.5%
$30$32$34$36$38$40$42volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q447.518.5--13.5--16.2-1.0983.3----------
Est2027-Q347.018.3--13.4--15.5-0.7967.1----------
Est2027-Q246.517.9--13.0--14.9-0.8951.6----------
Est2027-Q146.017.5--12.7--13.8-1.0936.7----------
Est2026-Q446.217.6--12.7--15.0-0.9922.9----------
Est2026-Q345.817.2--12.4--14.2-0.8907.9----------
Est2026-Q245.016.7--11.9--13.5-0.9893.7----------
Est2026-Q144.216.1--11.5--12.4-1.1880.2----------
Act2026-Q144.615.615.612.0-11.4-12.5-1.2867.83.219.024.6%3.5x--
Act2025-Q443.516.116.112.520.417.9-2.5644.91.218.428.5%4.1x--
Act2025-Q343.917.215.912.319.018.5-0.4184.01.418.426.0%3.9x8.0x
Act2025-Q243.317.315.812.310.210.0-0.2117.51.018.426.8%3.7x8.1x
Act2025-Q142.916.815.311.813.212.1-1.1184.30.918.526.4%3.5x7.9x
Act2024-Q444.518.116.513.014.914.8-0.2216.70.918.424.6%3.5x7.6x
Act2024-Q344.918.116.513.011.410.9-0.5257.61.018.424.8%3.4x5.9x
Act2024-Q243.717.916.212.714.514.1-0.4207.00.918.325.2%3.7x5.6x
Act2024-Q142.818.116.512.916.915.2-1.8235.21.018.525.4%4.1x6.6x
Act2023-Q444.216.314.711.815.014.5-0.5360.11.118.623.4%4.1x2.9x
Act2023-Q343.420.519.014.619.118.7-0.3348.51.018.829.7%7.4x3.3x
Act2023-Q241.414.312.99.812.011.0-0.9416.41.418.419.3%7.1x0.6x
Act2023-Q136.816.615.411.815.814.8-1.0372.51.916.333.8%21.4x2.6x
Act2022-Q438.317.015.712.617.517.1-0.4365.61.916.338.3%46.3x2.5x
Act2022-Q336.418.917.513.413.313.1-0.3356.62.016.443.1%49.6x--
Act2022-Q234.316.114.611.217.817.5-0.3344.42.616.733.9%38.0x--
Act2022-Q133.313.912.49.510.410.3-0.2322.32.516.927.1%28.5x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
202228.0546.2%662.5×2.8×11.3×3.7×
202331.90+16.5%40.8%682.9×3.3×11.5×3.3×
202436.94+6.1%41.0%727.6×9.9×14.8×4.3×
202532.48-1.4%38.9%6712.9×3.6×
TTM43.11-0.4%37.9%660.0×0.0×
2026E43.11+3.4%0.4%10.0×0.0×
2027E43.11+3.2%0.4%10.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude5/10HOLDFV: $39.00

FCBC is a well-run community bank with strong profitability metrics (ROIC ~28%, FCF margins ~34%) and a conservative balance sheet, but the stock faces multiple headwinds: NIM compression, stagnant organic growth, rising non-interest expenses, significant CRE exposure risk, and a widening digital gap vs. fintechs and larger banks. The Hometown acquisition provides a modest growth catalyst but introduces integration risk. At ~12x P/FCF and with an 11.7% trailing dividend yield (inflated by the $1.00 special dividend), valuation appears fair-to-slightly-cheap, but the lack of organic growth catalysts and structural competitive challenges for community banks limit upside. The elevated special dividend suggests management sees limited high-return reinvestment opportunities. Net insider buying is a mild positive, but the 37% surge in short interest signals growing bearish conviction. This is a hold — decent yield and stable cash flows, but no clear catalyst for re-rating higher.

Catalyst Successful integration of Hometown Bancshares driving revenue synergies above expectations; potential NIM recovery if rates decline meaningfully; continued special dividend payments supporting total return for income-focused investors.
Risk Commercial real estate credit deterioration — FCBC's CRE concentration could lead to elevated provision expenses and earnings impairment if the commercial property market weakens further, particularly in its regional footprint.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
6/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-2.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$43.11
Market Cap$813M
Enterprise Value$-51M
P/S Ratio4.6x
P/FCF24.0x
EV/FCF-1.5x
FCF Margin (TTM)19.3%
FCF Yield4.2%
Dividend Yield (TTM)5.2%
Annual Dilution3.2%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$175.2M
Net Income$49.0M
Free Cash Flow$33.9M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+4.0%
EBITDA Margin37.8%
Net Margin28.0%
FCF Margin19.3%
CapEx % of Revenue2.5%
SBC % of Revenue0.9%
ROIC26.5%
WC Change % Rev-0.3%
Interest Coverage3.8x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$78.16
+81.3% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$623M
− Net Debt$-865M
= Fair Equity$1.5B
Revenue Growth3.2% → 2.5%
FCF Margin19.3% → 30.0%
Discount Rate13.0%
Terminal EV/FCF12.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float2.3%
Short Shares0.4M
Days to Cover5.0
Change (vs Prior)-1.8%
Short % Float History
2.30%+1.40pp
1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)48%
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread21.4%
Call $OI (near money)$0
Put $OI (near money)$0
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$40.0
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$30.00$8.00/$17.000--/$5.900
$35.00$3.00/$12.200--/$4.800
$40.00$0.05/$9.100--/$4.800
$45.00--/$4.800$0.05/$9.000
$50.00--/$4.800$3.00/$13.000
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+3.4%
Forward FCF Margin30.4%
Forward EBITDA Margin37.3%
Forward P/FCF14.8x
Forward EV/FCF-0.9x
Forward Int. Coverage4.1x
Model Risk Score5/10
Bankruptcy Odds1%
Est. Borrow Rate5.5%
Terminal EV/FCF12.0x
LT Growth2.5%
LT FCF Margin30.0%

Employees

Headcount583
Revenue / Employee$300,496
Gross Profit / Employee$270,192
2022: 609 → 2023: 616 → 2024: 582 → 2025: 622 (1% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 2.2% of float, sold 0.7%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+1.5% of float (net)
Bought 2.2% · Sold 0.7%
80 filers reported (last quarter: 130)

Ownership composition

Active
11.2%(+1.5% YoY)
116 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
23.6%(+2.5% YoY)
11 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(-0.2% YoY)
4 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
0.4%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$60.3M$37.84−$679K−$5.3M-0.2%$5.69T
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$37.6M$26.25−$82K−$1.1M-0.4%$480.92B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$32.9M$41.52+$32.9M+$32.9M$4.04T
SYSTEMATIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LP$21.9M$32.65−$370K−$457K-0.6%$4.33B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$18.9M$30.17+$628K+$2.7M+2.3%$1.61T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$17.4M$30.09+$94K+$114K-0.2%$2.89T
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$9.4M$41.52+$9.4M+$9.4M$1.91T
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$6.3M$32.01+$409K−$283K-0.2%$755.34B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$6.1M$28.84+$94K+$453K+0.7%$645.81B
MORGAN STANLEY$5.8M$28.27−$478K+$122K-0.3%$1.65T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$5.6M$34.86+$1.5M+$3.8M-0.2%$760.93B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$4.9M$41.52+$4.9M+$4.9M$395.83B
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC$3.4M$30.46−$43K+$1.8M+0.7%$193.48B
State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund D$3.2M$34.51+$0+$860K-0.4%$25.91B
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$3.1M$33.18−$58K+$2.4M-0.2%$218.19B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$2.3M$37.99+$1.0M+$481K+1.2%$63.91B
Creative Planning$2.3M$34.85+$182K+$1.7M-0.7%$144.46B
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$2.0M$27.80−$39K−$1.8M-0.2%$543.21B
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$1.7M$34.62+$617K+$1.7M-0.9%$117.03B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$1.6M$34.01+$721K+$1.0M-0.1%$1.36T
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-0.19%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.20%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.05%
56 buyers · $0.07B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.40%
38 sellers · $-0.02B out
alpha coverage: 83% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-12.7%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-2.7%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-2.9%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+2.2%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-0.6%
Sellers' overall flow ~ flat.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-0.8%
Holder mid (any stock)
-1.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-2.3%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

0369K738K1.1M1.5M$21$26$31$36$422021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
SYSTEMATIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LP528KCallan Family Office, LLCMORGAN STANLEY139KCHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC146KGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC134KRENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC55KBank of New York Mellon Corp48KSiena Capital Partners GP, LLCPARAMETRIC PORTFOLIO ASSOCIATES LLCAMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC83K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
3
1
Hold: 3Sell: 1Consensus: Hold
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q340M17M12M$0.63$0.63 – $0.631
2025 Q441M18M12M$0.62$0.62 – $0.621
2026 Q144M19M14M$0.72$0.72 – $0.721
2026 Q247M20M14M$0.76$0.76 – $0.761
2026 Q347M20M14M$0.75$0.75 – $0.751
2026 Q447M20M14M$0.74$0.74 – $0.741
2027 Q147M20M14M$0.76$0.76 – $0.761
2027 Q247M20M14M$0.75$0.75 – $0.751
2027 Q347M20M14M$0.75$0.75 – $0.751
2027 Q447M20M15M$0.77$0.77 – $0.771

Corporate

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$23K
2 txns · 2 insiders · 651 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-01-30BUYBonnett Derek Aofficer: Chief Risk Officer501$34.93$17K$17K
2025-08-01BUYBrown David Dofficer: Chief Financial Officer150$36.00$5K$65K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

8.1%retail-0.3pp
18.1%dark+0.4pp
week of 2026-04-13
5%10%15%20%25%30%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

First Community Bankshares: Administrative Filing Lacks Material Red Flags Amid Limited Disclosure

Overall Risk
2/10
Fraud
1/10
Dilution
2/10
Insolvency
2/10
Earnings Overstated
1/10
Hidden Liabilities
1/10
Legal
1/10
Audit Warnings
1/10
Hidden Upside
1/10
Contextually Acceptable
10/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

First Community Bankshares (FCBC) reported Q4 2025 net income of $12.46 million ($0.68 per share), a decline from $0.71 per share in Q4 2024, continuing a trend of flat to slightly negative earnings growth (Seeking Alpha, Jan 2026). On January 23, 2026, the company completed its $41.5 million acquisition of Hometown Bancshares, Inc., expanding its footprint to 60 branches but introducing significant integration risks in a volatile interest-rate environment (GlobeNewswire, Jan 2026).

🐻 Bear Case

The core bear case centers on severe Net Interest Margin (NIM) compression, which dropped from 31.8% to 29.1% year-over-year as of early 2026 (Simply Wall St). Critics argue that the bank's reliance on special dividends ($1.00 declared Dec 2025) is a 'curious behavior' for a small-cap bank with stagnant earnings and declining book value, potentially signaling a lack of internal growth opportunities (Seeking Alpha, Jan 2026). Additionally, the bank faces high exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE), where defaults are a growing threat due to sticky inflation and high mortgage rates.

🚩 Red Flags

Short interest in FCBC recently surged by 37.4%, indicating growing institutional conviction in a downward move (MarketBeat, March 2026). Technical 'sell' signals were triggered in February 2026 from a pivot top point and a bearish MACD crossover (StockInvest.us). Furthermore, non-interest expenses rose 6.66% in 2025, driven by the escalating costs of financial crime compliance and cybersecurity (DCFmodeling, 2025).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

FCBC faces a 'massive technological challenge,' with surveys indicating 57% of younger customers are ready to switch banks for superior digital services (DCFmodeling, 2025). As a traditional community bank, it is struggling to compete with fintechs and larger national banks that offer more robust digital ecosystems; its own mobile tools are currently described by users as 'rudimentary' compared to peers like Bank of America (US Bank Locations, Feb 2026).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment is heavily weighed down by poor digital performance; the bank's mobile app holds a low 1.9/5 rating, with customers citing frequent login failures, broken biometric features, and 'horrible' user interfaces (Google Play/SmartAsset). Mortgage customers have also reported 'operational inefficiencies,' disorganized paperwork, and unexpected changes in loan terms close to closing (Tomo Mortgage Review, Feb 2025).