Stocks/EFN.TO

EFN.TO

Element Fleet Management Corp.
Industrials·Rental & Leasing Services
$27.47
$10.9B market cap
Claude Rating
5/10HOLD
Revenue
$2.6B
Free Cash Flow
$116.3M
Rev Growth
+8.9%
FCF Margin
4.5%
P/FCF
67.8x
EV/FCF
145.3x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
11.7x
Fair Value
$24.50
Upside
-10.8%

Element Fleet Management Corp. operates as a fleet management company primarily in Canada, the United States, Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand. The company offers fleet management services comprising vehicle acquisition, financing, program management, and remarketing services to corporate, commercial, government, and public service vehicle fleets. It serves construction, energy, oil and gas, food and beverage, healthcare, services, transportation, and utility industries. Element Fleet Manageme

2-Year Price History

$27.94+15.5%
$24$26$28$30$32$34$36volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q1650.0409.5--130.0--312.0-19.51,525----------
Est2027-Q4665.0392.4--106.4--53.2-26.61,213----------
Est2027-Q3640.0390.4--121.6--179.2-22.41,160----------
Est2027-Q2610.0347.7--103.7---61.0-21.4980.6----------
Est2027-Q1625.0387.5--118.8--281.3-20.01,042----------
Est2026-Q4640.0371.2--96.0--32.0-25.6760.3----------
Est2026-Q3610.0366.0--112.9--152.5-23.2728.3----------
Est2026-Q2580.0324.8--101.5---87.0-20.3575.8----------
Act2026-Q1598.3474.2252.9116.6575.1378.7-196.4662.89,662398.38.4%3.7x10.2x
Act2025-Q4811.0626.0269.6-84.753.019.0-34.0690.913,564399.94.6%3.5x15.1x
Act2025-Q3601.1334.2159.6125.2203.2179.4-23.7168.79,470401.34.9%--16.0x
Act2025-Q2572.6300.3440.8112.3-442.9-460.9-18.0143.89,553401.915.9%--13.9x
Act2025-Q1549.3287.6419.2103.3-33.5-45.2-11.7498.09,251403.715.4%--13.4x
Act2024-Q4541.5278.7419.592.0-155.2-187.9-32.7128.88,559390.216.8%--12.9x
Act2024-Q3558.7418.9424.398.2721.8697.5-24.265.08,563390.216.7%--12.4x
Act2024-Q2559.0302.1434.6102.8-312.6-336.4-23.883.28,821390.216.5%--12.3x
Act2024-Q1542.4278.3415.393.6-410.5-436.3-25.8696.09,228404.115.2%--10.6x
Act2023-Q4509.0248.3393.481.4178.4-255.1-433.572.68,209404.116.2%--10.4x
Act2023-Q3506.5385.9393.596.2-219.9-240.4-20.554.25,849404.524.1%--9.3x
Act2023-Q2469.9466.6358.789.4-277.9-296.3-18.542.47,847405.514.8%--12.5x
Act2023-Q1426.0206.2314.078.6-387.7-401.2-13.479.37,153409.014.4%--16.6x
Act2022-Q4397.9176.8-42.375.4-83.9-417.9-334.037.86,795403.7-2.2%--14.6x
Act2022-Q3368.7179.2269.975.7442.8163.7-279.129.46,324411.713.7%----
Act2022-Q2373.0179.6277.086.377.675.4-2.342.56,477414.413.7%----
Act2022-Q1352.4254.9254.974.9200.1186.2-13.821.36,565417.812.3%----
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
202217.4453.0%79016.9×>999×21.0×4.4×
202320.82+28.1%68.4%1,30711.9×n/m21.6×3.9×
202428.61+15.2%58.0%1,27815.3×n/m28.8×5.1×
202536.05+15.1%61.1%1,54817.7×n/m56.8×5.7×
TTM27.47+17.0%67.2%1,7350.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2027E27.47-1.7%0.6%150.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude5/10HOLDFV: $24.50

Element Fleet Management is a well-managed fleet services company with strong recurring revenue, high client retention (98%), and a credible digital transformation strategy. However, the stock trades at 67x trailing FCF and 144x EV/FCF, which demands near-flawless execution and significant growth acceleration that the business model may not support. The 76% debt-to-capital ratio creates meaningful interest rate risk in a higher-for-longer rate environment, and the Q4 2025 net loss reveals vulnerability beneath adjusted metrics. While management is competent and the business has structural moats (scale, data, client switching costs), the valuation already prices in the bull case. The normalization of used vehicle values, rising opex from digital investments, and lumpy FCF generation make the risk/reward unattractive at current levels. This is a good business at a full price.

Catalyst Successful monetization of Car IQ integration and Nova AI platform driving measurable operating leverage in H2 2026, combined with a potential rate-cutting cycle reducing funding costs and expanding net financing spreads.
Risk Higher-for-longer interest rates compressing net financing margins on the $13B+ asset base while simultaneously increasing funding costs on the 76% leveraged balance sheet, creating a squeeze on both revenue yield and profitability.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
7/10
Quarter
7/10
Exp. Move
-3.0%

Latest Earnings Call

Transcript Summary

Element Fleet Management delivered record Q1 2026 results, with net revenue rising 17 percent year-over-year to 324 million dollars and ROE hitting a record 20.3 percent. Adjusted EPS reached 0.35 dollars, while free cash flow per share grew 25 percent to 0.45 dollars. The quarter featured strong commercial momentum, including 44 new client wins and 98 percent revenue retention. Strategic focus remains on digital transformation, specifically the integration of Nova AI agents and the Element ONE platform. The integration of Car IQ is progressing well, offering vehicle-initiated payment solutions that are seeing high demand. While service revenue grew 6 percent, originations fell 4 percent to 1.5 billion dollars, primarily due to the normalization of a specific client program and macroeconomic timing shifts. Management addressed analyst concerns regarding rising operating expenses and employee compensation, characterizing these as necessary investments for long-term scalability and efficiency. A specific 4.6 million dollar credit provision was noted but described as an isolated event. Element continues to prioritize its capital-light model, returning 94 million dollars to shareholders in Q1. Overall, management maintains a bullish outlook for 2026, supported by robust order backlogs and the successful deployment of new technology-driven revenue streams.

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$27.47
Market Cap$10.9B
Enterprise Value$16.9B
P/S Ratio3.0x
P/FCF67.8x
EV/FCF145.3x
FCF Margin (TTM)4.5%
FCF Yield1.5%
Dividend Yield (TTM)2.0%
Annual Dilution-1.3%
CurrencyCAD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$2.6B
Net Income$269.5M
Free Cash Flow$116.3M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+8.9%
EBITDA Margin67.2%
Net Margin10.4%
FCF Margin4.5%
CapEx % of Revenue10.5%
SBC % of Revenue0.1%
ROIC8.4%
WC Change % Rev-42.6%
Interest Coverage5.7x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$1.92
-93.0% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$5.6B
− Net Debt$9.0B
= Fair Equity$555M
Revenue Growth4.5% → 5.0%
FCF Margin4.5% → 12.0%
Discount Rate14.0%
Terminal EV/FCF14.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-5.0%
Forward FCF Margin15.4%
Forward EBITDA Margin59.0%
Forward P/FCF20.8x
Forward EV/FCF44.6x
Forward Int. Coverage2.9x
Model Risk Score6/10
Bankruptcy Odds3%
Est. Borrow Rate5.5%
Terminal EV/FCF14.0x
LT Growth5.0%
LT FCF Margin12.0%

Employees

Headcount2,900
Revenue / Employee$890,689
Gross Profit / Employee$369,942

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

BALANCED

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 0.1% of float, sold 0.0%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+0.1% of float (net)
Bought 0.1% · Sold 0.0%
4 filers reported (last quarter: 4)

Ownership composition

Active
0.9%(+0.1% YoY)
4 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
0 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
0 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2019-122023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Cardinal Capital Management, Inc.$86.2M$25.42+$12.7M+$6.3M+0.1%$3.71B
Ancora Advisors LLC$9.6M$28.30−$66K−$1.3M-1.0%$4.69B
Mn Services Vermogensbeheer B.V.$3.3M$21.22+$0+$350K-0.4%$15.15B
Kohmann Bosshard Financial Services, LLC$114K$28.61−$36K+$114K+0.2%$1.20B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.04%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.03%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.00%
0 buyers · $0.00B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.97%
2 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+9.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+5.5%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+3.5%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-17.6%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-2.5%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
+1.2%
Holder mid (any stock)
-1.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-2.2%

Top-5 holders · 100.0%

Cardinal Capital Management, Inc.--
Ancora Advisors LLC--
Mn Services Vermogensbeheer B.V.--
Kohmann Bosshard Financial Services, LLC--

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

01.1M2.3M3.4M4.6M$17$22$26$31$362023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Cardinal Capital Management, Inc.4.0MAncora Advisors LLC444KCanoe Financial LPMn Services Vermogensbeheer B.V.155KKohmann Bosshard Financial Services, LLC5KHanson & Doremus Investment Management

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2026 Q3327M315M142M$0.36$0.35 – $0.3810
2026 Q4332M320M143M$0.36$0.35 – $0.374
2027 Q1338M326M147M$0.37$0.35 – $0.384
2027 Q2353M340M154M$0.39$0.37 – $0.404
2027 Q3360M347M158M$0.40$0.38 – $0.414
2027 Q4368M354M159M$0.40$0.38 – $0.414
2028 Q1376M362M157M$0.39$0.38 – $0.415
2028 Q2421M405M168M$0.42$0.41 – $0.445
2028 Q3436M419M174M$0.44$0.42 – $0.455
2028 Q4450M433M180M$0.45$0.43 – $0.475

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In May 2026, EFN.TO shares experienced a sharp decline of approximately 7-10% shortly after reporting record Q1 2026 revenue and EPS. This 'sell the news' reaction was intensified by broader market volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions (US-Iran-Israel) and rising concerns over higher-for-longer interest rates. Raymond James downgraded the stock from 'Strong Buy' to 'Outperform' on May 7, 2026, citing valuation compression and macroeconomic headwinds despite strong operational execution.

🐻 Bear Case

The primary bear case centers on significant margin compression, with trailing 12-month net margins falling from 17.7% to 12.3% as of May 2026. Critics highlight a stark divergence between management's growth narrative and analyst forecasts that suggest revenue could decline by up to 31% annually over the next three years. Additionally, a surprising basic EPS loss of $0.15 in Q4 2025 has raised questions about the durability of profitability amidst rising technology spending and normalizing vehicle remarketing gains.

🚩 Red Flags

Financial leverage remains a major concern, with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 363.75% and a debt-to-capital ratio of 76.1% as of Q1 2026. Technical indicators have soured, with the stock recently downgraded to a 'Strong Sell Candidate' by technical analysts due to its break below 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Higher funding costs are expected to persist, potentially pressuring financing spreads and necessitating higher credit-loss provisions.

⚔️ Competitive Threats

EFN faces increasing pressure from 'digital-first' entrants disrupting the fleet management space with advanced AI and shared mobility solutions. While Element is investing in its own digital platforms (e.g., Autofleet acquisition), these transitions require heavy CapEx that weighs on near-term margins. Furthermore, the normalization of used vehicle prices threatens the 'gain on sale' revenue stream that previously padded earnings during the pandemic-era vehicle shortage.

💬 Customer Sentiment

Customer sentiment is mixed; the company's Net Promoter Score (NPS) stood at 49 at the end of 2024, showing improvement but still trailing its internal target of 50. There are reported 'friction points' regarding technical support for the Xcelerate portal and mobile app, with some users expressing frustration over response times from Client Technology Services (CTS) during the recent digital rollout phases.

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q1 • 2026-05-09

Operator: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Element Fleet Management's First Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call. You are reminded that this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] Element wishes to caution listeners that today's information contains forward-looking statements. The assumptions on which they are based and the material risks and uncertainties that could cause them to differ are outlined in the company's year-end and most recent MD&A and AIF. Although management believes that the expectations expressed in the statements are reasonable, actual results could differ materially. The company also reminds listeners that today's call references certain non-GAAP and supplemental financial measures. Management measures performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both to be useful in providing readers with a better understanding of how it assesses results. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to IFRS measures can be found in the company's most recent MD&A. I would now like to turn the call over to Laura Dottori-Attanasio, Chief Executive Officer. Welcome. The floor is yours.
Laura Dottori-Attanasio: Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to report Element delivered a strong start to 2026, building on the record performance we achieved in 2025. In the first quarter, we generated record net revenue of $324 million, up 17% year-over-year, and we delivered record adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow per share. Our return on equity reached 20.3%, the highest level we have ever achieved. These results reflect consistent execution across our business and the strength of our client relationships. They also reflect the ongoing investments we continue to make to advance our key focus areas, including digitization, mobility and efficiency. Commercial momentum remained strong in the quarter. We added 44 new clients with about 1/3 of those wins coming from self-managed conversions. We also continued to expand within our existing base through 173 additional service enrollments. Our client revenue retention was 98%, underscoring the quality of our relationships and our Strategic Advisory Services team identified roughly $354 million in savings opportunities for our clients with about half of those actions during the quarter. Now digital transformation continues to be a key differentiator for Element and a central pillar of our long-term strategy. In Vehicle Acquisition, we made great progress with our new vehicle ordering system, including the introduction of our existing AI-powered agent, Nova. Nova is designed to provide greater transparency and support more informed decision-making as our clients identify the right vehicles for their needs. Select clients are already testing our platform, and we plan to roll it out to all clients in the coming months. And then we have Element ONE for drivers, our driver app that we released in 2025. That continues to see growing adoption, supporting a more streamlined experience for drivers and day-to-day fleet interactions. This quarter, we implemented an AI support agent within the platform to help resolve support requests, and it can now resolve 53% of client chats, driving improved response times and service consistency. And in parallel, we're quickly advancing our Element ONE client portal, which we expect to launch later this year. It will serve as a more comprehensive digital front door or a single pane of glass for our clients to control their entire fleets from one platform. As you know, last year, we acquired CAR IQ to add embedded vehicle-initiated payment capabilities, and we closed that transaction on December 31. I'm happy to report that the integration is progressing well. Early client feedback has been positive, and we're seeing demand that exceeds our expectations. Early use cases for Fuel are delivering measurable cost savings for our clients. And over time, we expect vehicle-initiated payments to be an important addition to the Element offering and a meaningful driver of future revenue growth through enhanced monetization. And while it's still early days for these important initiatives, they are already helping simplify the client experience and are expected to drive efficiency across our operations over time. We continue to build a business focused on growth and long-term value, and we're pleased with how the year has started as we continue to execute against our strategic priorities of delivering consistent growth, advancing our digital agenda and maintaining a disciplined approach in all that we do. And with that, I'll turn it over to Heath to take you through the financials.
Heath Valkenburg: Thank you, Laura, and good morning, everyone. We delivered record financial results across several key metrics in the first quarter, including net revenue of $324 million, adjusted operating income of $182 million, adjusted earnings per share of $0.35 and adjusted free cash flow per share of $0.45. Overall, our performance reflects the stability of the business and the continued momentum across key drivers. I will now begin by reviewing our first quarter results on an adjusted basis. Starting with net revenue, we generated $324 million in Q1, up 17% year-over-year with growth across all revenue components. Services revenue was $162 million in the quarter, up 6% year-over-year, driven by continued growth in Vehicles Under Management, which increased 3%. Turning to net financing revenue. We generated $138 million in the quarter. This reflects growth in net earning assets, continued benefits from our leasing initiatives and higher gain on sale, partly offset by increased provision for credit losses related to a specific client item. More broadly, net financing revenue remains a key driver of growth, supported by a core NFR yield of 4.98%, representing 40 basis points of expansion compared to Q1 2025. Syndication volume was $867 million in the quarter and generated $24 million in revenue, up from $12 million a year ago. This resulted in a syndication yield of 2.8%, an increase of 70 basis points year-over-year, with revenue growth underpinned by the combination of higher volumes, the reinstatement of bonus depreciation, a favorable client mix and strong investor demand across our syndication channels. In the quarter, Originations were $1.5 billion, down 4% year-over-year and primarily reflecting the expected reduction in volume from an originate to syndicate client. Excluding this impact, Q1 underlying demand in our origination volume remained solid and was supported by a robust 26% lift in Mexico and our continued conversion of strong order volumes in Q4. Operating expenses in the first quarter were $142 million, up 13% year-over-year. This increase was primarily driven by incremental headcount associated with the Car IQ acquisition as well as inflation, higher depreciation and our continued investment in new initiatives. However, we remain disciplined to managing expense growth and continue to focus on driving efficiencies as the business scales, which supported positive operating leverage of 3.9% in the quarter. From an operating margin perspective, we delivered 56.2% in the first quarter, up from 54.7% in the prior year. This performance helped to drive a record return on equity of 20.3%, up 360 basis points year-over-year, reflecting both our strong earnings growth and continued balance sheet efficiency. Free cash flow remains a key strength of Element and continues to support both business reinvestment and capital returns to shareholders. In the first quarter, we generated $0.45 of free cash flow per share, up 25% year-over-year. Consistent with our capital allocation priorities, we returned approximately $94 million to shareholders during the quarter, including $57 million used to repurchase 2.3 million common shares. Turning to the balance sheet. Our debt-to-capital ratio ended March at 76.4% within our targeted range of 73% to 77%, reflecting continued discipline in how we fund our growth. Overall, we are pleased with the strong start to the year. Our performance in the quarter reflects the resilience of our business model throughout market conditions and positions us well to deliver consistent execution and growth through the balance of 2026. Thank you. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] We will hear first from John Aiken at Jefferies.
John Aiken: Post the meltdown in February with the market being concerned about AI disruption, I've had a lot of discussions with clients about your business operations specifically. Can you talk about what the potential threat for disintermediation from AI or Fintech start-ups are to your operations and how you plan to defend against that?
Laura Dottori-Attanasio: Yes. Thanks, John. Absolutely. I guess to that, I'll, before I just go into the AI piece, which I do see as a clear opportunity for Element, probably worth talking a bit about, if I could say, the great moat that we have that we seem to be forgetting about that is our leasing capabilities. So those are, as you know, almost half of our business. And so if you take that combined with our scale, our large network of suppliers, including the operational expertise that we have, we have a very solid moat. As you know, we've been making all of the investments that are required, including the acquisition of Car IQ, and that was to allow us to digitize, to automate and to create the ecosystem that we have that has been, I'd say, somewhat traditional and then putting it all into a digital environment with Element ONE that I talked about in my prepared remarks. So, I think we're moving at a really good pace, and we're well positioned to thrive in the AI environment. I did in my prepared remarks, share some of the things that we're doing from an AI perspective. As you know, what we do is built around managing a whole lot of complexity and at scale. And so, I believe that this is just going to help make our ecosystem even better. It's going to help us, and we're seeing that already with one of the examples I provided. As we roll this out, it's going to help us respond faster to our clients. It's going to allow us to predict issues earlier. We're furthering the automation of what I'd say, routine work that we've been doing manually, improving decision-making. Again, the whole bit creating a better experience for our clients. So I do see it as a positive. I don't believe it's going to replace the need for a scaled fleet manager. In fact, I'd go as far as to say, I think it's going to increase the value of a partner like us that has the data, the relationships and that workflow integration and the operational scale so that we can apply it practically. And I know we're going to talk about expenses and people feel they're high and everyone wants us to have higher operating margins, which we do too, and we are working towards. But as I did mention, I'm going to say in my prepared remarks, like we still have, there is a lot of complexity in how you bring your AI agents, A, you build them out, you bring them together. And you have to do that in a very thoughtful way to make sure it's done right. And so we do have important initiatives underway, and they will drive efficiency across our operations, but that will take time. It doesn't happen in a quarter. And I think it's important to remember that, again, when I think of AI, I just think there's always going to be things that we're seeing in the market. And the differentiator is really not who can demonstrate, 'look at me, I got the first agent first or technology. ' It's really going to be for us who can deploy it into enterprise fleet operations, so at scale and then deliver those measurable outcomes. And I think we're really well positioned based on not just the investments we made, but the work that we're doing. I just say it's going to take a little more time than I think everyone would like because we want to make sure when we do it, we do it right and our clients get a better experience and no bumpiness between implementation and delivery of our new tools.
John Aiken: I didn't misrepresent your position.
Operator: We'll hear next from Stephen Boland at Raymond James.
Stephen Boland: It seems, I guess your prepared remarks saying there's like one client origination to syndication that kind of cut off. But it seems materially, like are the originations really dependent on that one client for the decline? Like is it, I'm just trying to get an idea. It seems like very dependent on one client. But what about the rest of your clients and their activity? Are you seeing originations maybe just delayed for a quarter? Maybe just talk about that, please.
Heath Valkenburg: Steve, you actually cut out a little bit at the start there, but I believe your question was around the originations. So happy to give a bit of color in terms of what we're seeing. So, for Q1, we did see a strong sequential pickup in originations, so $1.5 billion, up 8% quarter-over-quarter and actually one of the better sequential increases we've delivered to start of new year. And that really follows the record order volume of $2 billion in Q4 of 2025. And I would say that a portion of these orders are still converting. So, we've got approximately 40% of those orders still to be activated in coming quarters. From a year-over-year perspective, originations were down 4%, and that was primarily related to the reduction of an originate to syndicate client. Having said that, though, we are seeing some timing shifts in client ordering just given the current macro environment with certain clients opting to push orders later into the year. That's sort of different from this time last year, where we actually saw some pull forward of activity as clients sought to get ahead of potential tariff-related price increases. So that dynamic, along with the reduction of the originate to syndicate client will likely carry into Q2. So, this is an area we're focused on. We're focused on driving orders, accelerating originations throughout the balance of the year. Importantly, we don't expect the timing of orders to have a material impact on our ability to deliver revenue and adjusted operating income growth, and that's reflected in Q1 where we delivered record results across both metrics.
Stephen Boland: Okay. And my second question is definitely on the service revenue. When I look at that waterfall quarter, the sequential from Q4 to Q1, it's flat. But the one metric in there is the utilization decline. I'm just curious, is that because of clients that are gone or have left the company? Or is it something that like clients have basically pulled back on services? I'm just trying to understand the metric there.
Heath Valkenburg: Yes. So, from a service revenue perspective, we were down $1 million quarter-on-quarter. That's standard. We do see some seasonality with Q4 always being the higher quarter of service revenue. There's some higher utilization in that quarter where clients change over winter tires and those sorts of things. So that decrease of $1 million and lower utilization is seasonality. From a year-over-year perspective, service revenue was up 6%. So, we were pleased with the reacceleration of service revenue growth. And that was really on the back of the resumption of growth that we saw in the back part of last year. So, we're not seeing reducing services or anything like that, and there was seasonality from a quarter-over-quarter perspective. So, the growth really comes from continued VUM growth, increasing product penetration across our existing client base and then the expansion of our service offering with things like a Car IQ that we're bringing into the platform. So, looking ahead, we expect there will be a convergence in growth rates across the different revenue lines. And that's really a function of the different profiles. So, we saw strong financing income and syndication income in Q1, really driven by factors that began in the back half of last year. And then on the services side, growth does tend to lag VUM onboarding. If you bring in VUM late in the quarter, the impact of the revenue is almost is low. And then you generally drive the product penetration into those over time as well. So, we expect that the services will grow over time.
Operator: Our next question will come from Bart Dziarski at RBC Capital Markets.
Bart Dziarski: I wanted to ask around the higher PCL you called out related to a client item. Could you just give us a bit more details on what drove that? And maybe more importantly, how comfortable you are at the current provisioning levels?
Heath Valkenburg: Yes, absolutely. So in Q1, we did record a credit loss provision of $4.6 million, which brings our total allowance to $15.3 million, which is about 20 basis points of financing receivables. The increase is a single client item. So, it's not a broad-based change in credit performance across the portfolio. And as we've scaled and standardized our leasing operations, we've certainly maintained a disciplined approach to underwriting and monitoring, and there's been no change in our risk appetite or underwriting discipline. So, it was one client, and it's the same client exposure that we identified and provisioned for in Q4. And as such, over the past two quarters, we've taken a conservative approach and provided for the bulk of this position. So, while there's a small remaining portion, and we'll continue to assess that through the coming quarters, we do view our overall credit performance is stable with no change to our overall sort of outlook for credit quality. So importantly, our NFR yield of 4.98% this quarter includes that provision and would have been 15 basis points higher. So, we're confident in our portfolio, and it remains strong.
Bart Dziarski: Okay. Got it. Super helpful. Then just a follow-up on the origination question. So last quarter, you talked about $2 billion of orders and then a modest extension in the order to delivery cycle time. So could you just walk us through the time line now of what that order to delivery cycle time looks like, what the order level was for Q1 '26 and maybe tie that all into how you're feeling about the originations guidance for 2026 of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion.
Heath Valkenburg: Yes, no problem. So, in terms of the order to delivery cycle time, there's been no sort of material change to that in the quarter. And we generally see it depends on whether the vehicles have upfit or not upfit, but it's anywhere sort of from 130 days to 250 days. And that's why we do have 40% of those originations, still to come. In terms of the orders for Q1, they were approximately $1.5 billion for Q1. And as I said, we did see some delays with certain clients pushing orders into the later part of the year. In terms of guidance, though, we're pleased with the start of the year overall. We delivered strong results, and it does show the earnings power of our business. That said, it's early in the year. So, we're not, we wouldn't be changing guidance at this point. We continue to focus on execution, especially around originations and services, and we would update our guidance later in the year if we thought we needed to.
Operator: Our next question will come from Jaeme Gloyn at National Bank Capital Markets.
Jaeme Gloyn: Question on new funding structures. It looks like there's been some onetime costs over the last couple of quarters totaling about $6 million related to the development of these new funding structures. Can you give us maybe a little bit of a preview of what's to come given that's given these charges and what can we expect here in the near term?
Heath Valkenburg: Yes, absolutely. So, as part of our continued focus on our capital-light business strategy, funding flexibility is a key component of that model. And we do have already a well-diversified cost-efficient funding platform. However, as part of that strategy, we're always looking to advance our off-balance sheet funding. And that's not to replace, but rather to supplement our existing tools, whether it's syndication or other off-balance sheet approaches. So, the objective really here is to increase our flexibility to support growth and supporting returns without materially increasing our leverage. So, we have been working and investing in this area and taking some costs in the last few quarters. We've made strong progress, and we've moved into an advanced stage. So, our intent is to provide an update once we've finalized the structure and completed the transaction.
Operator: We will hear next from Paul Holden at CIBC Capital Markets.
Paul Holden: I have a few questions for you. Maybe first one, just to follow up on the discussion around originations. So first part of the question would be, was that roll-off of the originate to syndicate revenue incorporated into the 2026 guidance when you provided it? And two, I just want to go back, I think, Heath, you sort of inferred that maybe that roll-off of that client and some delayed activations could also impact Q2 originations. So I just want to clarify that. And then I guess that suggests sort of we should be expecting better year-over-year growth in sort of Q3 and Q4.
Heath Valkenburg: Yes, absolutely. So as part of the evolution of our leasing strategy, we've been optimizing the composition of our portfolio. Without getting into client-specific details, the originate to syndicate client is a single product relationship, so no services. Origination volumes were elevated in prior periods, and they're now normalizing as the program matures. And we were expecting that as part of our originations guidance for 2026. What we did see in the quarter was, as I said, the, some shift in client ordering just given the macroeconomic environment with certain clients pushing orders later into the year. So that may impact our originations number for Q2, and we're really focused on driving orders to converting to originations for the back half of the year.
Paul Holden: Okay. I got it. And then a question on the service revenue. Obviously, you made it clear that you want that to grow at somewhat a higher rate. I guess one of the things we haven't discussed on it because we don't see it, is the margin embedded in that revenue? I know it's a net number, is there anything that's changed in terms of the margins or costs that are incorporated into that line? Or is this really more of just as the top line has slowed and you expect that to resume? Or is there any kind of margin story here?
Heath Valkenburg: Yes. So in terms of the service revenue and products that we offer, there's been no change in the margins that are embedded in that number. And so there's no change in the margins. You'll recall in the first half of 2025 with the tariffs and the trade, we did have a slow start to the year from a VUM growth. That's now resumed. We saw service revenue reaccelerating in Q1, up 6% following the previous, so really, it's just about driving the VUM growth, driving the product penetration and then implementing the new products such as the Car IQ that we've acquired.
Paul Holden: Okay. Understood. And then last question. I guess there was an update from Amazon. I can't remember it was earlier this week or last week, I think, earlier this week. And so there's been a number of client questions around that and if there's potential disruption for Element or not. So it would be great to get your thoughts on that.
Laura Dottori-Attanasio: Yes. Thanks for that question, Paul. We do see that announcement as a net positive for Element. So, for them, it's primarily about improving utilization of their existing logistics network. So not replacing the last mile delivery structure. So the initiative that they have underway actually works, the expectation is that's going to drive more volume through the last mile network. So that would mean more utilization, more capacity needs and essentially more demand for the Fleet Management Services that we provide. So that's why we see this as a net positive for Element. And I go a little further now that I have the mic to say as a validation as well of our Mobility Operations Solutions. So we do excel in last mile delivery, what we call our Mobility Operations Solutions now. And so we believe this places us quite well.
Paul Holden: That's helpful. And then last one for me is just on expense growth, you're right, Laura, we're going to talk about expenses because it is a little bit higher for the year. So can you talk to like is this a similar growth rate we should expect through the rest of the year? And then I also note specifically, employee compensation is up 20% year-over-year. It looks like almost all of the year-over growth is from that line. So why is employee comp up as much as it is? Maybe talk to us about sort of the growth in FTE versus wage inflation and where that growth in FTE is coming from beyond Car IQ.
Heath Valkenburg: Yes, no problem. I'll take that one. And really, so in terms of the expenses for the quarter, it was up 13%, $142 million. The increase was driven by incremental headcount and costs associated with the Car IQ acquisition as well as inflation and higher depreciation. However, we do continue to reinvest a portion of our growth into key initiatives, so digitization, automation, new products. And these initiatives are intended to drive future revenue and also improve efficiency over time. I think as sort of Laura alluded to earlier, while these programs carry upfront investment before the sort of scale benefits are realized, we are being disciplined in our implementation. So we're making sure these new capabilities are fully integrated and operated as intended before we pursue more aggressive cost actions. And that's really in the lens of client experience. It's important for us to make sure we're delivering strong client experience. So that's what's driving the expense growth for Q1. What I would say is even with that investment, we delivered positive operating leverage of 3.9%. Our margin is up 56.2%, up from 54.7% a year ago. In terms of your question about expense growth rate going forward, looking forward, we do expect the expense growth rate to moderate relative to Q1 levels, and we remain focused on growing our revenue faster than expenses. And you have seen that in previous years. So 2023, 2024 expense growth was double digit. It then moderated to 7% in 2025, and we expect the growth rates over the coming quarters to decline relative to Q1.
Operator: Our next question will come from Thomas MacKinnon at BMO Capital.
Tom MacKinnon: Just a question on what we should be looking at in terms of, there's a lot of discussion on originations. But if I look in the way you put your slides together, you actually have vehicles under management before originations in your slide show. So Vehicles Under Management were up, but originations were down. What do you guys deem as being the more important metric here?
Heath Valkenburg: Yes. So both important metrics. VUM is a metric that shows growth. So originations can be impacted by timing. So if you have, if your VUM is up, you're either bringing in new clients or your existing clients are increasing the size of their fleet. So that's why VUM growth, we were pleased with the VUM growth. Originations can be timing of replacement cycles of clients' fleets. And so if a client returns the vehicle and get a new vehicle out, that doesn't drive growth, but it does drive originations. So both important metrics for us, but I would view VUM as a core driver of growth.
Tom MacKinnon: Then why didn't you give guidance on VUM as opposed to originations because origination stuff is harder to pinpoint.
Heath Valkenburg: Yes. So originations is still a key metric that then flows into your net earning assets and net earning assets combined with the yield will drive the financing revenue as well as what's available to syndicate. So we still see originations as a really key metric. And from a VUM perspective, we've always targeted 2% to 4% VUM growth.
Tom MacKinnon: Okay. And then one final one. If I look at the services per VUM, it's been kind of sitting around 3.7% for some time right now. How do you see that trending? What can you do to increase that? Some thoughts around that.
Heath Valkenburg: Yes. It's absolutely a key focus for us. In terms of that metric, what often happens and what you've seen in the last couple of quarters is often you'll bring in a new client and they'll have a lower service revenue number to begin with. And you have seen that in the last couple of quarters, which dilutes the average per se. And then as you build that relationship with the client over time, you then drive more services into the portfolio. So really for us, our focus is the execution side of things, making sure we've got strong client experience, strong client relationships and driving further product penetration. And then additionally, it's making sure that we have really good best-in-market products such as our payments business through Car IQ, which will have, ideally have strong uptake from our client base to continue to drive that number higher.
Tom MacKinnon: And is the Car IQ into this services per VUM is that included in there? Probably not now since it's just new.
Heath Valkenburg: No, it's not. So that services per VUM number is our top nine products in the U.S. and Canada.
Tom MacKinnon: Okay. And then one final one is the buybacks picked up. I think you're running almost twice the rate in this quarter, in the first quarter than you were just in terms of number of shares than you were in the fourth quarter or significantly higher and certainly higher than the third. You've got a lot of room in this NCIB. What can you say about share buybacks, especially where your stock is now?
Heath Valkenburg: Yes, I'd say nothing has changed in terms of our overarching focus from a finance perspective. So we've always targeted growing revenue over the longer term at 6% to 8%. Obviously, we're going to deliver stronger than that in 2026. We look to drive revenue faster than expenses. And then we look to buy back anywhere from 1% to 2% of our stock. And given that there has been some volatility in the markets, we do like to step in when that happens.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] We'll go to Graham Ryding at TD Securities.
Graham Ryding: Maybe a question for Laura. Just Element Mobility, it's sort of been an area that you've been investing in and deliberately trying to build out. Is there anything you can point to date as evidence that this investment is starting to translate into revenue growth? Or is the benefit to date more about customer retention and operating efficiencies?
Laura Dottori-Attanasio: Thanks, Graham. I'd say all of the above, so that's a bit of a broad answer. But all of the above in terms of the things we've talked about with our ability to transform how we're doing business. And we've talked about this in the past that the fleet industry is undergoing some really rapid transformation. And so when I think of historically how things were focused more on, I want to say, vehicle financing, traditional services, we do see that the model is evolving fast. We're seeing it even more so today. We were talking about AI just a little bit earlier. And so that was why we went out. We acquired Autofleet to help us really evolve our strategy and our ability to execute. So that Element Mobility division, if you will, that we talked about was really meant to drive that innovation across everything that we do. And you have seen some of it already. And again, I know everyone expects ourselves as well, and we're working towards that to take expenses down further as we roll these things out and scale. But it will allow not just for us to continue with solid client retention, but it should also provide some new revenue unlocks and I think just help us continue to drive value creation. So as a reminder, under that mobility umbrella, we had things like Autofleet, still relatively new. We acquired them back in October of 2024. And so not that long ago, and we've made phenomenal progress from my perspective. Car IQ, another one, very timely acquisition when you think of how that could decrease fuel spend for our clients by, call it, about 10% on average, pretty timely, but that also gives us some great ability from a payments capability, not just for our clients but for ourselves. So all of that along with our innovation lab. And as we talked about, that's sort of focused on the technologies of autonomous vehicles, robotics, AI, and we've already rolled some out and Autofleet came with Nova, which already had AI embedded in it. So, all of that, I really do believe is going to transform how we manage our business and how we can deliver better service to our clients. Now again, some of which you're seeing. And I think as time goes on, you're going to see more of that over time, and it's going to represent, and sorry, I don't have numbers to give you, but it should represent in more revenue and in decreased costs over time.
Operator: And we have no further signals from our audience members today. I'm happy to turn the floor back over to our President and CEO, Ms. Dottori-Attanasio, for any additional or closing remarks.
Laura Dottori-Attanasio: All right. Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us today. As we shared, we remain confident in the trajectory of our business. We remain confident in our ability to deliver for our clients and for our shareholders. We do continue to see strong engagement from our clients and our team members. We want to thank for all of their hard work in making this all happen and to share with you that we remain very focused on advancing our strategic initiatives in 2026. With that, we look forward to speaking with you again in August for our second quarter earnings call.
Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude Element's Q1 earnings call, and we thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines, and we hope that you enjoy the rest of your day.