CNTB
Connect Biopharma Holdings LimitedConnect Biopharma Holdings Limited, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of immune modulators for the treatment of serious autoimmune diseases and inflammation. The company's lead product candidate is CBP-201, an anti-interleukin-4 receptor alpha antibody, which is in Phase IIb clinical trial for the treatment of inflammatory allergic diseases, such as atopic dermatitis, asthma, and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps. Its products also compri
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 0.3 | -16.5 | -- | -16.2 | -- | -15.6 | -0.2 | -59.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 0.3 | -15.0 | -- | -14.7 | -- | -14.4 | -0.2 | -44.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 0.5 | -16.0 | -- | -15.5 | -- | -15.0 | -0.2 | -29.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 0.5 | -15.0 | -- | -14.5 | -- | -14.0 | -0.2 | -14.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.3 | -13.5 | -- | -13.2 | -- | -12.6 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.3 | -12.0 | -- | -11.7 | -- | -11.4 | -0.2 | 11.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 0.5 | -12.0 | -- | -11.5 | -- | -11.0 | -0.2 | 23.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -15.4 | -15.5 | -15.1 | -11.3 | -11.3 | -0.0 | 44.3 | 0.7 | 55.7 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q3 | 0.5 | -11.0 | -- | -10.5 | -- | -10.0 | -0.2 | 34.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.1 | -13.3 | -13.4 | -12.9 | -12.6 | -12.9 | -0.3 | 71.8 | 1.2 | 55.5 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 1.9 | -22.9 | -24.9 | -23.2 | -15.6 | -15.9 | -0.3 | 93.7 | 0.3 | 55.2 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 24.1 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | -8.3 | -8.4 | -0.4 | 110.2 | 0.3 | 55.6 | 148.5% | 409.8x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 0.0 | -28.4 | -27.2 | -28.9 | -16.8 | -16.9 | -0.0 | 118.7 | 0.5 | 55.1 | <-999% | -2731.2x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.0 | -30.0 | -34.8 | -30.6 | -31.1 | -31.4 | -0.3 | 131.2 | 0.6 | 55.1 | <-999% | -2887.9x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 0.0 | -56.0 | -54.3 | -56.7 | -44.5 | -46.9 | -2.5 | 155.0 | 0.4 | 55.0 | -696.5% | -4543.1x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.0 | -61.1 | -63.4 | -59.7 | -52.9 | -54.6 | -1.7 | 190.9 | 0.6 | 55.0 | -181.4% | -7007.5x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTM | 2.49 | — | -165.9% | -43 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 2.49 | -93.9% | -35.3% | -1 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
CNTB is a high-risk binary bet on rademikibart's clinical success in a market dominated by Dupixent. The 1H 2026 acute asthma/COPD data is the key catalyst. While early clinical data showing faster onset of action is encouraging and the addressable market is massive ($3B+ peak sales potential per analyst estimates), the company faces severe execution risk: cash runway of ~30 months requires successful data to attract a partner or raise capital on favorable terms, the dual-class governance structure limits minority shareholder influence, prior internal control failures raise operational concerns, and the competitive landscape against Sanofi/Regeneron is daunting. At $169M market cap with $72M cash, the market is pricing in modest probability of clinical success. The risk/reward is slightly negative given dilution probability, but a positive Phase 2 readout could justify multiples of current price. Not investable for fundamental long/short strategies given the pure binary nature; better suited for biotech-specialist portfolios.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | --/$3.60 | 0 | --/$3.70 | 0 |
| $5.00 | --/$4.70 | 0 | $0.05/$5.90 | 0 |
| $7.50 | --/$4.50 | 0 | $2.45/$8.20 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 21.8% of float, sold 1.0%. 2 filers moved >1% of shares (2 buying, 0 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ikarian Capital, LLC | $13.1M | $2.80 | +$1.6M | +$13.1M | -8.9% | $698M |
| BOOTHBAY FUND MANAGEMENT, LLC | $3.2M | $2.82 | +$0 | +$3.2M | -0.4% | $4.25B |
| 683 Capital Management, LLC | $2.4M | $2.62 | +$2.4M | +$2.4M | -2.2% | $1.02B |
| PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | $2.1M | $2.82 | +$0 | +$2.1M | -1.4% | $5.05B |
| ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | $1.9M | $2.62 | +$1.9M | +$1.9M | +8.3% | $1.64B |
| Richmond Brothers, Inc. | $1.2M | $2.69 | +$794K | +$1.2M | -0.7% | $143M |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.2M | $2.64 | +$1.1M | +$1.2M | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| BML Capital Management, LLC | $1.1M | $1.51 | +$0 | +$1.1M | -1.7% | $155M |
| Knott David M Jr | $1.0M | $2.72 | +$492K | +$1.0M | -0.2% | $168M |
| Stonepine Capital Management, LLC | $812K | $2.62 | +$812K | +$812K | -5.9% | $113M |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM | $730K | $2.61 | +$543K | +$730K | -0.6% | $77.14B |
| Propel Bio Management, LLC | $554K | $2.62 | +$549K | +$554K | -2.9% | $159M |
| DIADEMA PARTNERS LP | $526K | $2.62 | +$526K | +$526K | +2.6% | $224M |
| Burkehill Global Management, LP | $360K | $2.62 | +$393K | +$360K | +5.0% | $1.91B |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $316K | $1.51 | −$59K | +$316K | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | $199K | $2.82 | −$61K | +$199K | -0.4% | $138.22B |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | $173K | $2.23 | −$163K | +$173K | +0.6% | $92.71B |
| Simplify Asset Management Inc. | $135K | $2.62 | +$135K | +$135K | -1.4% | $6.44B |
| Persistent Asset Partners Ltd | $133K | $2.73 | +$63K | +$133K | +3.6% | $257M |
| Koa Wealth Management, LLC | $130K | $1.51 | +$0 | +$130K | -2.2% | $138M |
Trading behavior
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 70.2%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -13M | $-0.24 | $-0.25 – $-0.23 | 3 |
| 2025 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -15M | $-0.28 | $-0.33 – $-0.23 | 3 |
| 2026 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -14M | $-0.26 | $-0.27 – $-0.24 | 2 |
| 2026 Q2 | 0M | 0M | -17M | $-0.31 | $-0.37 – $-0.22 | 3 |
| 2026 Q3 | 21M | 5M | -13M | $-0.24 | $-0.24 – $-0.24 | 1 |
| 2026 Q4 | 8M | 2M | -19M | $-0.34 | $-0.39 – $-0.23 | 4 |
| 2027 Q1 | 0M | 0M | -15M | $-0.27 | $-0.27 – $-0.27 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 0M | 0M | -19M | $-0.34 | $-0.34 – $-0.34 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 0M | 0M | -15M | $-0.27 | $-0.27 – $-0.27 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 0M | 0M | -19M | $-0.35 | $-0.35 – $-0.35 | 2 |
Corporate
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | BUY | Huang James | director | 1,160,000 | $3.45 | $4.00M | $45.40M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Connect Biopharma: High-Burn Clinical Stage Biotech with Material Control Failures
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In early 2026, Connect Biopharma initiated the Phase 2 'Seabreeze STAT' study for rademikibart in acute asthma and COPD, with pivotal topline data expected in 1H 2026. The company also recently presented data at the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI) 2025 and the European Respiratory Society (ERS) Congress, highlighting rademikibart's potential as a 'fast-acting' next-generation IL-4Rα antagonist compared to existing biologics.
The short thesis likely hinges on the company's status as a clinical-stage biotech with no commercial revenue, a history of being dropped from major indices like the NASDAQ Composite, and the heavy dominance of Sanofi/Regeneron's Dupixent in the IL-4Rα space, which may limit market share for a late entrant.
The company has undergone a significant transition, including board resignations and a shift in operations from China to the U.S., which creates execution risk. Additionally, earnings are projected to decrease from ($0.22) to ($0.32) per share as R&D spending for Phase 3 trials ramps up.
The primary threat is Dupixent (dupilumab), the gold standard for atopic dermatitis and asthma. Other competitors include potential biosimilars and established players like Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (ZNTL) and ProQR Therapeutics (PRQR) competing for biotech capital and patient enrollment in clinical trials.
Positive sentiment is emerging from the medical community regarding rademikibart’s 'best-in-class' potential. Clinical data suggests a faster onset of action and superior efficacy in moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis patients compared to current treatments. Analysts maintain a 'Strong Buy' consensus with price targets as high as $10.00, suggesting the market may be underestimating its $3B+ peak annual sales potential in the asthma market alone.