BSBR
Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A.Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services to individuals, small and medium enterprises, and corporate customers in Brazil and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Commercial Banking and Global Wholesale Banking. It offers deposits and other bank funding instruments; debit and credit cards; digital prepaid solutions; payment platform; loyalty programs; employee benefit vouchers; payroll loans; digital lending an
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 43,500 | 5,873 | -- | 3,915 | -- | -1,305 | -1,088 | 304,089 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 43,000 | 5,590 | -- | 3,784 | -- | 5,160 | -774.0 | 305,394 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 42,000 | 5,040 | -- | 3,276 | -- | -3,360 | -840.0 | 300,234 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 41,500 | 5,188 | -- | 3,445 | -- | 3,320 | -622.5 | 303,594 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 41,000 | 5,330 | -- | 3,485 | -- | -2,050 | -1,025 | 300,274 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 40,500 | 5,063 | -- | 3,321 | -- | 6,075 | -729.0 | 302,324 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 39,200 | 4,508 | -- | 2,940 | -- | -3,920 | -784.0 | 296,249 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 38,500 | 4,620 | -- | 3,080 | -- | 1,925 | -577.5 | 300,169 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 38,361 | 5,373 | 4,710 | 3,218 | 39,603 | 38,937 | -666.0 | 298,244 | 133,909 | 7,490 | 7.3% | 0.2x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 42,466 | 5,689 | 5,040 | 3,901 | -19,835 | -21,348 | -1,513 | 271,429 | 129,956 | 3,804 | 9.0% | 0.2x | 3.5x |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 44,884 | 4,859 | 4,859 | 3,748 | 3,236 | 6,646 | -46.9 | 844.0 | 177,756 | 7,471 | 6.6% | 0.2x | 21.8x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 34,568 | 2,606 | 1,985 | 1,928 | -11,816 | -12,706 | -889.6 | 296,119 | 182,894 | 7,471 | 3.5% | 0.1x | 3.5x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 35,943 | 5,323 | 4,620 | 3,109 | 33,408 | 32,908 | -499.9 | 323,668 | 149,854 | 7,471 | 6.6% | 0.2x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 35,337 | 4,809 | 4,117 | 3,059 | 789.5 | 740.8 | -48.8 | 296,963 | 135,372 | 7,460 | 6.9% | 0.2x | 1.6x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 33,695 | 6,073 | 5,384 | 3,637 | 28,708 | 27,905 | -803.2 | 328,717 | 279,466 | 7,460 | 4.6% | 0.3x | 6.5x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 29,246 | 5,940 | 5,271 | 3,617 | 13,895 | 13,259 | -635.3 | 268,379 | 259,879 | 7,460 | 4.8% | 0.3x | 10.8x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 30,745 | 5,099 | 4,417 | 3,052 | -21,504 | -21,956 | -452.5 | 249,254 | 257,364 | 7,444 | 4.1% | 0.3x | 15.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 31,701 | 3,293 | 2,620 | 2,046 | -12,538 | -13,352 | -814.1 | 253,042 | 144,024 | 7,444 | 4.5% | 0.2x | 5.5x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 30,811 | 4,190 | 3,497 | 2,771 | 60,211 | 59,474 | -737.5 | 275,722 | 258,925 | 7,444 | 3.7% | 0.2x | 14.7x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 29,916 | 3,768 | 3,082 | 1,593 | -12,323 | -13,228 | -904.8 | 211,311 | 146,051 | 7,444 | 4.3% | 0.2x | 7.8x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 28,936 | 3,411 | 2,722 | 3,040 | 1,265 | 368.3 | -896.3 | 20,014 | 146,954 | 7,446 | 5.9% | 0.2x | 16.7x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 30,252 | 4,298 | 3,625 | 2,889 | 271.5 | -394.0 | -665.5 | 205,065 | 126,658 | 7,490 | 7.1% | 0.2x | 7.0x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 29,126 | 5,243 | 4,588 | 3,454 | 2,046 | 903.3 | -1,143 | 154,736 | 120,249 | 7,490 | 8.7% | 0.3x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 26,775 | 5,947 | 5,294 | 4,143 | -6,843 | -7,447 | -604.6 | 85,787 | 114,811 | 7,490 | 11.1% | 0.4x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 24,742 | 6,672 | 6,067 | 3,801 | 11,372 | 10,921 | -450.6 | 108,657 | 108,404 | 7,490 | 11.0% | 0.5x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.43 | — | 20.0% | 22,160 | — | — | 3.2× | 0.4× |
| 2023 | 5.72 | +9.4% | 12.1% | 14,663 | — | — | 4.0× | 0.3× |
| 2024 | 3.62 | +6.3% | 17.0% | 21,921 | — | — | 2.9× | 0.3× |
| 2025 | 6.03 | +22.4% | 11.7% | 18,478 | — | — | 3.2× | 0.3× |
| TTM | 5.44 | +19.4% | 11.6% | 18,528 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 5.44 | -0.7% | 0.1% | 195 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 5.44 | +6.8% | 0.1% | 217 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Banco Santander Brasil is a well-capitalized but increasingly challenged franchise caught between structural competitive disruption from Nubank and cyclical headwinds from Brazil's aggressive rate tightening cycle. While the bank trades at a seemingly reasonable ~1.0x book value and offers a 6%+ dividend yield, the quality of earnings is deteriorating: impaired assets are growing faster than revenue, the efficiency ratio is worsening, loan book growth significantly lags nominal GDP, and management is using accounting reclassifications to mask balance sheet volatility. The incoming CEO change introduces execution risk at a critical juncture. At current ADR prices around $6.30, the stock prices in modest improvement that may not materialize given the macro backdrop and competitive intensity. Standard DCF approaches are unreliable for banks; on a P/BV and dividend discount basis, fair value is closer to $5.20 per ADR, suggesting the stock is modestly overvalued for the risk profile.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | $2.50/$3.70 | 0 | --/$0.75 | 0 |
| $5.00 | $0.30/$1.05 | 0 | --/$0.75 | 0 |
| $7.50 | --/$0.75 | 0 | $1.70/$5.00 | 0 |
| $10.00 | --/$0.20 | 0 | $4.00/$7.00 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 0.5% of float, sold 0.4%.
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banco Santander, S.A. | $3.08B | $6.07 | +$0 | +$0 | -0.4% | $12.40B |
| Aquamarine Financial (Cayman) Ltd | $58.2M | $5.49 | +$282K | +$58.2M | +19.6% | $1.37B |
| NOMURA ASSET MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL INC. | $20.3M | $6.03 | −$1.1M | +$20.3M | +1.4% | $58.02B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $18.4M | $5.93 | +$18.4M | +$18.4M | — | $4.04T |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | $12.5M | $4.59 | −$3.5M | −$1.7M | +0.1% | $184.72B |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $6.1M | $5.06 | +$491K | +$2.5M | +0.7% | $193.48B |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $4.8M | $5.36 | +$4.6M | +$3.3M | -0.2% | $760.93B |
| Alpine Global Management, LLC | $4.6M | $6.03 | +$0 | +$4.6M | +3.0% | $566M |
| Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $4.4M | $5.90 | +$4.3M | +$4.4M | +0.3% | $70.36B |
| UBS Group AG | $2.8M | $5.54 | +$1.3M | +$2.5M | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| Jump Financial, LLC | $2.4M | $5.43 | +$1.2M | +$2.0M | +0.5% | $6.09B |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | $2.2M | $4.56 | +$885K | −$3.1M | +0.6% | $92.71B |
| ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P. | $2.1M | $5.47 | +$629K | +$2.1M | -0.3% | $307.70B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $1.8M | $5.09 | +$0 | +$1.1M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. | $1.7M | $5.96 | +$717K | +$1.7M | +0.6% | $43.38B |
| Invesco Ltd. | $1.6M | $5.55 | +$226K | +$488K | -0.2% | $652.04B |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $1.5M | $4.92 | −$1.3M | +$397K | -0.1% | $1.36T |
| DEUTSCHE BANK AG\ | $1.5M | $6.07 | +$0 | +$0 | -0.3% | $302.17B |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM | $1.5M | $4.74 | +$1.0M | +$1.3M | -0.1% | $92.10B |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | $1.4M | $4.83 | +$352K | +$273K | -0.4% | $138.22B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 98.3%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3 | 23.3B | 4.6B | 8.9B | $1.19 | $1.16 – $1.22 | 3 |
| 2026 Q4 | 23.9B | 4.7B | 9.2B | $1.23 | $1.22 – $1.24 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 24.1B | 4.7B | 9.2B | $1.22 | $1.21 – $1.23 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 24.4B | 4.8B | 9.6B | $1.28 | $1.27 – $1.29 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 24.8B | 4.8B | 9.5B | $1.27 | $1.26 – $1.28 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 25.5B | 5.0B | 10.1B | $1.35 | $1.34 – $1.36 | 1 |
| 2028 Q1 | 25.6B | 5.0B | 10.6B | $1.41 | $1.40 – $1.43 | 1 |
| 2028 Q2 | 26.0B | 5.1B | 11.4B | $1.52 | $1.51 – $1.53 | 1 |
| 2028 Q3 | 26.4B | 5.2B | 12.2B | $1.63 | $1.62 – $1.64 | 1 |
| 2028 Q4 | 26.9B | 5.3B | 12.7B | $1.70 | $1.69 – $1.72 | 1 |
Corporate
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | SELL | Garrido Eduardo Alvarez | officer: Officer w/o Specific Desig | 7,500 | $5.43 | $41K | $134K |
| 2026-03-26 | SELL | Garrido Eduardo Alvarez | officer: Officer w/o Specific Desig | 16,500 | $5.95 | $98K | $192K |
| 2026-03-24 | SELL | Araujo Alexandre Teixeira de | officer: Officer w/o Specific Desig | 20,156 | $5.94 | $120K | $107K |
| 2026-03-24 | SELL | Ishii Michele Soares | officer: Officer w/o Specific Desig | 12,000 | $5.95 | $71K | $84 |
| 2026-03-24 | SELL | de Abreu Germanuela de Almeida | officer: VP Exec Officer | 55,000 | $5.92 | $326K | $272K |
| 2026-03-19 | SELL | Janikian Cezar Augusto | officer: VP Exec Officer | 17,000 | $5.87 | $100K | $315K |
| 2026-03-19 | SELL | Kambourakis Jean Paulo | officer: Officer w/o Specific Desig | 36,721 | $5.89 | $216K | $186K |
| 2026-03-19 | SELL | Soares Alexandre Guimaraes | officer: Officer w/o Specific Desig | 35,443 | $5.92 | $210K | $173K |
| 2026-03-19 | SELL | Vescovi Ana Paula Vitali Janes | officer: Officer w/o Specific Desig | 38,000 | $5.79 | $220K | $196K |
| 2026-03-18 | SELL | Kappaz Rafael Abujamra | officer: Officer w/o Specific Desig | 31,285 | $5.76 | $180K | $202K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
BANCO SANTANDER (BRASIL) S.A.: Reclassification shell games and worsening loan quality behind a stable facade
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In early 2026, Banco Santander Brasil reported a 1.9% year-over-year revenue decline for Q4 2025, alongside a 4.0% drop in overall Net Interest Income (NII). Itau BBA recently downgraded the stock to 'Hold,' citing unfavorable valuation asymmetries and reduced earnings estimates. Additionally, a major leadership transition was announced in March 2026, with Gilson Finkelsztain (formerly CEO of B3) tapped to replace Mario Leão as CEO, signaling a shift in strategy amid cooling growth (TipRanks, Intellectia.AI, StockInvest.us).
The core bear case rests on a deteriorating credit cycle in Brazil and stagnant loan book growth, which at 3.7% YoY is significantly lagging behind the country's nominal GDP growth and its 15% interest rate. Riskier segments like SMEs and credit cards are expanding while non-performing loans (NPLs) are rising, suggesting a mismatch in risk-adjusted spreads. Furthermore, the bank’s reliance on BRL-denominated earnings leaves it highly exposed to currency depreciation in a volatile fiscal environment where Brazil's public debt is projected to exceed 90% of GDP (Seeking Alpha, Capital Economics).
Operational efficiency is slipping, with the efficiency ratio climbing to 38.8% in Q4 2025. The bank has also reported recurring losses of approximately R$1.5 billion in market securities over consecutive quarters. Perhaps most concerning for short-sellers, short interest in BSBR recently spiked by nearly 66%, indicating a sharp shift in professional investor sentiment against the stock (MarketBeat, Intellectia.AI).
Digital-native competitor Nubank has effectively 'eaten Santander’s lunch' by achieving a 31% ROE and becoming Brazil's most valuable company as of late 2025. Santander’s defensive 'Start Now!' initiative for low-income accounts is viewed by analysts as a late-stage reaction to Nubank’s dominant 60% adult population penetration. While Santander maintains physical infrastructure costs, neobanks are scaling with lower digital overhead and high-income products (Ultravioleta) that threaten Santander's traditional profit centers (Euromoney, Reddit/Companies Market Cap).
Customer sentiment is increasingly focused on fee-avoidance and digital ease, pressuring Santander to launch fee-free accounts that threaten its legacy fee-based income model. Internal reports also noted a rise in customer privacy breach complaints in 2024, highlighting potential regulatory and reputational friction as the bank tries to modernize its digital security infrastructure (Euromoney, Santander 2024 Integrated Report).