ARMP
Armata Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Armata Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on the development of targeted bacteriophage therapeutics for antibiotic-resistant infections worldwide. It develops its products using its proprietary bacteriophage-based technology. The company's product candidates include AP-SA02 for the treatment of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia; AP-PA02 for Pseudomonas aeruginosa; and AP-PA03 for the treatment of pneumonia. It has a partnership agreement with Merck & Co. for de
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 2.5 | -35.0 | -- | -50.0 | -- | -31.3 | -0.3 | -205.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 2.0 | -34.0 | -- | -48.0 | -- | -31.0 | -0.2 | -174.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 1.5 | -30.0 | -- | -40.5 | -- | -27.0 | -0.2 | -143.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 2.0 | -32.0 | -- | -44.0 | -- | -29.0 | -0.2 | -116.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 2.0 | -30.0 | -- | -42.0 | -- | -27.0 | -0.2 | -87.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 1.5 | -27.0 | -- | -36.0 | -- | -24.0 | -0.2 | -60.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 1.0 | -22.0 | -- | -28.0 | -- | -20.0 | -0.2 | -36.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.8 | -8.3 | -8.8 | -115.4 | -5.8 | -5.8 | -0.1 | 4.8 | 373.7 | 36.5 | -9.4% | -1.5x | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 1.5 | -24.0 | -- | -30.0 | -- | -21.0 | -0.2 | -16.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -119.1 | -13.8 | -124.3 | -6.7 | -6.7 | -0.1 | 8.7 | 288.0 | 36.3 | -19.2% | -24.6x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 1.2 | -22.0 | -7.8 | -26.7 | -4.3 | -4.5 | -0.2 | 14.8 | 177.7 | 36.2 | -17.5% | -5.0x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 2.2 | -12.1 | -6.8 | -16.3 | -7.2 | -7.4 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 144.0 | 36.2 | -19.0% | -3.2x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 0.5 | -2.6 | -8.2 | -6.5 | -7.6 | -7.7 | -0.1 | 11.7 | 134.7 | 36.2 | -23.9% | -0.7x | 14.3x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 1.2 | 6.3 | -10.5 | 2.6 | -7.9 | -7.9 | -0.1 | 9.3 | 126.5 | 59.1 | -31.3% | 1.9x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 3.0 | -2.3 | -9.8 | -5.5 | -8.9 | -9.2 | -0.3 | 17.1 | 140.3 | 36.2 | -26.8% | -0.8x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.0 | 12.0 | -11.9 | 9.0 | -10.2 | -11.5 | -1.4 | 26.4 | 146.1 | 58.3 | -30.4% | 4.4x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 1.0 | -22.9 | -10.2 | -25.0 | -10.6 | -10.8 | -0.3 | 37.9 | 167.9 | 36.1 | -24.4% | -12.6x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 1.5 | -18.1 | -9.6 | -19.9 | -8.1 | -10.5 | -2.4 | 13.5 | 120.4 | 36.1 | -31.8% | -12.5x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 1.2 | -29.8 | -10.3 | -31.2 | -9.7 | -13.2 | -3.5 | 24.0 | 113.6 | 36.1 | -36.4% | -25.3x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 1.0 | -3.4 | -9.6 | -3.6 | -12.1 | -12.3 | -0.2 | 12.5 | 68.3 | 36.1 | -56.4% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 0.8 | -11.1 | -11.4 | -14.5 | -17.6 | -19.6 | -2.0 | 25.1 | 77.3 | 36.1 | -58.7% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 1.1 | -10.1 | -10.3 | -10.3 | -10.5 | -10.0 | -0.5 | 14.9 | 48.8 | 36.1 | -84.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 1.3 | -8.4 | -8.6 | -8.6 | -10.3 | -11.6 | -1.3 | 25.4 | 39.5 | 36.0 | -80.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 1.9 | -9.0 | -9.2 | -9.2 | -8.2 | -9.3 | -1.1 | 37.0 | 38.9 | 36.0 | -73.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 1.2 | -8.6 | -8.8 | -8.8 | -3.5 | -3.8 | -0.2 | 46.4 | 38.4 | 29.0 | -60.1% | -- | -- |
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Armata has genuinely exciting science — AP-SA02's Phase 2a data showing 71% faster infection clearance in S. aureus bacteremia is remarkable, and QIDP designation provides meaningful regulatory and commercial advantages. However, the financial structure is catastrophic for minority equity holders. The company has $14.8M cash (6 months runway), $185M in liabilities, a $377M accumulated deficit, and is borrowing at a 41.6% effective rate from its controlling shareholder Innoviva, which holds convertible instruments covering 42M shares against 36M outstanding — over 100% dilution. Even if the Phase 3 succeeds (a massive 'if' requiring 2+ more years and ~$100M+ in additional capital), minority shareholders will own a tiny residual slice after Innoviva's conversion rights are exercised. The market cap of $417M implies enormous Phase 3 success probability that is inconsistent with the financial reality. This is a situation where the science may win but common equity loses.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | $3.50/$8.00 | 0 | --/$4.10 | 0 |
| $5.00 | $1.00/$6.00 | 0 | --/$4.30 | 0 |
| $7.50 | $0.10/$5.00 | 0 | $0.05/$5.00 | 0 |
| $10.00 | $0.05/$4.90 | 0 | $0.10/$5.00 | 0 |
| $12.50 | $0.05/$4.40 | 0 | $2.10/$6.50 | 0 |
| $15.00 | --/$4.30 | 0 | $4.50/$9.00 | 0 |
| $17.50 | --/$4.20 | 0 | $7.00/$11.50 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 24.4% of float, sold 0.7%. 1 filer moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 0 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Asset Management, LLC | $21.6M | $10.24 | +$21.6M | +$21.6M | -0.5% | $8.06B |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $2.6M | $9.81 | +$2.4M | +$2.6M | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| 683 Capital Management, LLC | $1.4M | $6.28 | −$29K | +$1.4M | -2.2% | $1.02B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $1.2M | $3.67 | +$48K | +$89K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| EDGEWOOD MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.0M | $4.89 | +$0 | +$0 | -1.1% | $15.50B |
| Dauntless Investment Group, LLC | $928K | $9.97 | +$865K | +$928K | +4.8% | $35.6M |
| SEI INVESTMENTS CO | $760K | $10.24 | +$760K | +$760K | -0.4% | $108.06B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $666K | $4.81 | −$79K | +$429K | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM | $663K | $5.62 | +$414K | +$380K | -0.6% | $77.14B |
| Informed Momentum Co LLC | $624K | $10.24 | +$624K | +$624K | +7.8% | $865M |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $624K | $6.16 | +$162K | +$624K | -0.2% | $760.93B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $520K | $3.68 | +$0 | +$108K | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $458K | $1.24 | +$0 | +$0 | -2.3% | $4.93B |
| SeaCrest Wealth Management, LLC | $425K | $4.65 | +$5K | +$67K | +0.1% | $934M |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $394K | $5.43 | −$307K | −$1K | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| GSB Wealth Management, LLC | $307K | $1.90 | +$0 | +$307K | -0.5% | $443M |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLCMM | $287K | $4.40 | +$111K | +$287K | -0.1% | $92.10B |
| Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $273K | $5.05 | +$34K | +$273K | +0.3% | $70.36B |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $252K | $5.19 | +$0 | +$55K | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| Hudson Bay Capital Management LP | $180K | $10.24 | +$180K | +$180K | +1.9% | $15.12B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 77.9%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Armata Pharmaceuticals: A Related-Party Debt Trap Approached by a Dilution Event Horizon
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In February 2026, the FDA granted Qualified Infectious Disease Product (QIDP) designation to Armata's lead candidate, AP-SA02, for treating S. aureus bacteremia, providing five years of additional market exclusivity. Following a successful End-of-Phase 2 meeting in January 2026, the company announced plans to initiate a pivotal Phase 3 superiority study in H2 2026. This follows positive Phase 2a 'diSArm' data presented at IDWeek 2025, which showed a significant reduction in infection resolution time (2.7 days vs. 9.3 days for placebo). (Sources: PR Newswire, ClinicalTrialsArena)
The primary bear thesis rests on Armata's precarious financial position, characterized by a -61% YoY revenue decline and deeply negative operating margins (-670.9%). Critics argue that the company is a 'binary bet' on clinical success in a field (bacteriophages) that has historically struggled with regulatory hurdles. Furthermore, bears point to the company's reliance on continuous dilutive funding or debt from its majority shareholder, Innoviva, to sustain high R&D burn through a lengthy Phase 3 trial. (Sources: Ticker Nerd, Public.com)
Financial health metrics are concerning, with a current ratio of 0.1x and persistent net losses ($18.9M in the most recent fiscal year). Additionally, some analysts have raised concerns regarding the small sample sizes in earlier trials, which may lead to statistical insignificance or 'efficacy drift' when scaled to larger Phase 3 populations. Institutional ownership remains low at approximately 3.6%, suggesting a lack of broad-based conviction among major funds. (Sources: Nasdaq/Fintel, Macroaxis)
Armata faces competition from traditional 'best available therapy' (BAT) antibiotics, which remain the standard of care despite rising resistance. While Armata is the first bacteriophage company to advance a candidate to Phase 3, it competes for hospital formulary space and funding against other novel anti-infective platforms and potential synthetic phage competitors that may offer lower manufacturing costs. (Sources: FirstWord Pharma, GlobalData)
Sentiment among the medical community (the ultimate 'customers') is increasingly bullish following the IDWeek 2025 presentation. Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) have highlighted the 'superiority' design of the upcoming Phase 3 trial as a major differentiator. Clinical trial data suggests high patient and provider satisfaction due to the rapid 71% improvement in time-to-clearance of bloodstream infections and a favorable safety profile with minimal drug-related adverse events. (Sources: StockTitan, ClinicalTrialsArena)