Stocks/VRM

VRM

Vroom, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical·Auto - Dealerships
$11.80
$61M market cap
Claude Rating
1/10STRONG SHORT
Revenue
$53.4M
Free Cash Flow
$61.9M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
116.0%
P/FCF
1.0x
EV/FCF
13.3x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
$2.50
Upside
-78.8%

Vroom, Inc. operates as an e-commerce used automotive retailer in the United States. It operates end-to-end ecommerce platform for buying, selling, transporting, reconditioning, pricing, financing, registering, and delivering vehicles. The company was formerly known as Auto America, Inc. and changed its name to Vroom, Inc. in July 2015. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

2-Year Price History

$12.06+15.7%
$5.0$10$15$20$25$30volJun 24Sep 24Jan 25Jul 25Oct 25Feb 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q44.5-0.2---1.6---0.7-0.0-1.1----------
Est2027-Q35.0-0.4---2.0---0.9-0.1-0.4----------
Est2027-Q25.5-0.6---2.5---1.1-0.10.5----------
Est2027-Q16.0-0.7---3.0---1.5-0.11.6----------
Est2026-Q46.5-1.0---3.6---2.0-0.13.1----------
Est2026-Q37.0-1.3---4.2---2.5-0.15.0----------
Est2026-Q27.5-1.5---4.9---3.0-0.27.5----------
Est2026-Q18.0-2.0---6.0---4.0-0.210.5----------
Act2026-Q125.0-4.2-5.6-19.118.614.4-1.514.5774.85.2-2.5%-0.3x--
Act2025-Q428.43.32.3-11.421.317.5-1.710.4779.55.21.0%0.1x--
Act2025-Q3-0.0-12.0-18.8-26.819.715.5-2.212.4781.45.2-8.1%-17.0x--
Act2025-Q20.05.7-23.9-8.517.714.5-1.714.3779.35.2-9.9%0.4x--
Act2025-Q10.05.9-22.0-6.416.814.2-1.514.6779.85.2-9.1%0.5x--
Act2024-Q42.8-13.2-107.2-36.6-22.1-23.5-1.429.3752.31.8-57.0%-0.8x--
Act2024-Q32.9-13.6-5.8-39.7-31.7-32.9-1.251.11,0631.8-2.2%-0.8x--
Act2024-Q260.99.528.2-21.2-66.3-66.6-0.363.41,0771.810.5%0.6x--
Act2024-Q149.2-13.717.1-67.623.122.5-0.691.01,0741.86.2%-0.9x--
Act2023-Q4235.9-48.4-106.9-141.3-108.1-111.3-3.3140.11,2331.8-34.6%-3.3x--
Act2023-Q3235.6-58.7-42.5-82.9-193.5-194.2-0.7213.91,2621.8-13.5%-4.9x--
Act2023-Q253.51.5-52.6-66.0-147.1-147.5-0.4244.51,1201.7-18.8%----
Act2023-Q1196.5-63.0-68.3-75.0-85.0-85.8-0.8324.71,1151.7-24.5%-7.2x--
Act2022-Q4209.450.0-77.624.8-86.0-90.2-4.3419.5985.81.7-29.7%4.1x--
Act2022-Q3340.8-30.5-78.2-51.1114.4110.5-3.9533.61,1721.7-26.0%-3.1x--
Act2022-Q2475.4-95.2-100.1-115.1-122.4-137.8-9.0546.11,4381.7-26.4%-10.0x--
Act2022-Q1923.8-316.4-315.9-310.5-15.1-22.2-7.1616.31,4131.7-72.7%-33.7x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
202281.60-20.1%-392
202348.20-63.0%-23.4%-169
20245.20-84.0%-26.7%-31
202519.88-75.5%10.4%3
TTM11.80-19.9%-13.5%-70.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E11.80-45.6%-0.2%-0n/mn/m0.0×0.0×
2027E11.80-27.6%-0.1%-0n/mn/m0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude1/10STRONG SHORTFV: $2.50

Vroom is a post-bankruptcy zombie entity running off a subprime auto loan portfolio with $12.4M in cash, $823M in liabilities, and total dependence on a single related-party lender who also controls 76.5% of equity. The retail business is dead, CarStory generates negligible revenue (~$5M annualized), and the finance receivable portfolio is in permanent runoff. Management awarded themselves 15% of post-restructuring equity while prior shareholders were wiped out. With 186% annual dilution, critical interest coverage (-0.32x), and Level 3 mark-to-model accounting on virtually all assets, there is no credible path to equity value creation for minority shareholders. This is a controlled liquidation masquerading as a going concern, and the $66M market cap reflects speculative premium over likely recovery value of near zero for common equity.

Catalyst A second bankruptcy filing or liquidity crisis when the Mudrick facility covenants tighten or subprime delinquencies spike, forcing recognition of the true asset values and wiping out remaining equity holders.
Risk Mudrick could choose to prop up the entity indefinitely through related-party lending, preventing the short thesis from playing out in a timely manner while extracting value through senior secured claims.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
2/10
Quarter
2/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$11.80
Market Cap$61M
Enterprise Value$822M
P/S Ratio1.1x
P/FCF1.0x
EV/FCF13.3x
FCF Margin (TTM)116.0%
FCF Yield100.7%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution0.8%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$53.4M
Net Income$-65.8M
Free Cash Flow$61.9M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin-13.5%
Net Margin-123.2%
FCF Margin116.0%
CapEx % of Revenue13.4%
SBC % of Revenue6.1%
ROIC-4.9%
WC Change % Rev1610.7%
Interest Coverage-0.1x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$-0.40
-103.4% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$-21M
− Net Debt$760M
= Fair Equity$-2M
Revenue Growth-27.6% → 1.0%
FCF Margin116.0% → 5.0%
Discount Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float1.1%
Short Shares0.1M
Days to Cover5.9
Change (vs Prior)-5.7%
Short % Float History
1.10%+0.80pp
0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-45.7%
Forward FCF Margin-39.3%
Forward EBITDA Margin-19.8%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage-0.2x
Model Risk Score10/10
Bankruptcy Odds45%
Est. Borrow Rate18.0%
Terminal EV/FCF4.0x
LT Growth-5.0%
LT FCF Margin5.0%

Employees

Headcount704
Revenue / Employee$75,794
Gross Profit / Employee$37,189
2022: 1,323 → 2023: 1,682 → 2024: 800 → 2025: 655 (-21% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

BALANCED

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 1.8% of float, sold 1.8%. 2 filers moved >1% of shares (1 buying, 1 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+0.0% of float (net)
Bought 1.8% · Sold 1.8%
23 filers reported (last quarter: 42)

Ownership composition

Active
97.5%(-119.2% YoY)
39 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
2.0%(+2.0% YoY)
5 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
1 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
10.4%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2025-032025-062025-092025-122026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Mudrick Capital Management, L.P.$52.8M$6.09+$0+$200K-26.4%$174M
SILVERBACK ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC$5.8M$6.53+$166K+$174K+6.5%$48.8M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$3.3M$6.03−$13K−$299K-0.1%$1.36T
MILLER VALUE PARTNERS, LLC$778K$13.31+$778K+$778K+1.1%$383M
MARSHALL WACE, LLP$645K$6.00+$0−$45K+0.6%$92.71B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$558K$28.23−$9K+$558K-0.2%$5.69T
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$398K$25.79+$65K+$398K+2.3%$1.61T
Catterton Management Company, L.L.C.$306K$6.00+$0+$0-14.3%$3.61B
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$179K$13.31+$179K+$179K$4.04T
NISA INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC$126K$6.00+$0+$0-0.5%$27.04B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$88K$13.31+$88K+$88K$395.83B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$81K$13.31+$81K+$81K$1.91T
Russell Investments Group, Ltd.$80K$17.26+$57K+$80K+1.5%$93.03B
NEW YORK STATE COMMON RETIREMENT FUND$48K$28.51+$0+$48K+1.3%$71.52B
FMR LLC$34K$14.69+$28K+$34K-0.0%$1.89T
UBS Group AG$21K$14.44+$7K+$9K-0.3%$562.11B
Tower Research Capital LLC (TRC)MM$13K$22.42+$7K+$13K-0.6%$3.84B
RHUMBLINE ADVISERS$12K$28.38+$0+$12K+0.4%$116.90B
MORGAN STANLEY$7K$11.93−$8K−$7K-0.3%$1.65T
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.$7K$28.51+$0+$7K+1.7%$73.71B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-20.02%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-21.20%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+1.07%
19 buyers · $0.00B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.15%
9 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 99% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+0.2%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-0.1%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-0.6%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+4.3%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+1.5%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-10.8%
Holder mid (any stock)
-24.9%
Holder rally (any stock)
-8.8%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

01.2M2.4M3.6M4.8M$6.00$12$17$23$292025-032025-062025-092025-122026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Mudrick Capital Management, L.P.4.0MSILVERBACK ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC438KBANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/250KEXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS, LLCMARSHALL WACE, LLP48KSONA ASSET MANAGEMENT (US) LLCMILLER VALUE PARTNERS, LLC58KCatterton Management Company, L.L.C.23KGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
5
9
Buy: 5Hold: 9Consensus: Hold
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2022 Q4268M-102M-111M$-50.53$-50.53 – $-50.531
2023 Q1255M-451M-443M$-44.64$-44.64 – $-44.641
2023 Q2226M-82M-92M$-40.80$-40.80 – $-40.801
2023 Q3244M-112M-125M$-35.93$-37.77 – $-34.092
2023 Q4232M-112M-122M$-29.60$-29.60 – $-29.601
2024 Q1235M-497M-487M$-45.60$-45.60 – $-45.601
2024 Q2255M-53M-191M$-36.80$-36.80 – $-36.801
2024 Q3267M-56M-150M$-28.80$-28.80 – $-28.801
2024 Q4294M-61M-229M$-44.00$-44.00 – $-44.001
2025 Q3-0M0M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$27.0M
Incentive & Other$4.6M
Total Compensation$31.6M
% of Revenue4.5%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$1K
6 txns · 2 insiders · 83 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$399K
8 txns · 1 insider · 15,020 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-08SELLCorrales Anna-Lisa Christinaofficer: CLO, CCO, Secretary35$12.20$427$379K
2026-03-20SELLBenzaquen Jacob Shlomoofficer: Principal Accounting Officer7$12.07$84$124K
2026-03-20SELLCorrales Anna-Lisa Christinaofficer: CLO, CCO, Secretary18$12.07$217$375K
2025-09-15SELLBenzaquen Jacob Shlomoofficer: Principal Accounting Officer3$26.07$78$269K
2025-06-11BUYMudrick Capital Management, L.P.10 percent owner3,649$28.00$102K$111.08M
2025-06-10BUYMudrick Capital Management, L.P.10 percent owner13$28.00$364$110.98M
2025-06-09BUYMudrick Capital Management, L.P.10 percent owner1,790$27.99$50K$110.93M
2025-06-06BUYMudrick Capital Management, L.P.10 percent owner1,781$27.99$50K$110.90M
2025-06-05BUYMudrick Capital Management, L.P.10 percent owner999$24.48$24K$96.92M
2025-06-04BUYMudrick Capital Management, L.P.10 percent owner4,788$25.80$124K$102.13M
2025-06-03BUYMudrick Capital Management, L.P.10 percent owner1,000$24.88$25K$98.39M
2025-06-02BUYMudrick Capital Management, L.P.10 percent owner1,000$24.13$24K$95.39M
2025-05-28SELLBenzaquen Jacob Shlomoofficer: Principal Accounting Officer8$23.65$189$244K
2025-05-28SELLCorrales Anna-Lisa Christinaofficer: CLO, CCO, Secretary12$23.65$284$735K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

40.2%retail+1.1pp
4.0%dark-0.2pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%24-1125-0725-0925-1126-0126-0326-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Vroom, Inc.: High-Octane Insolvency Risk Masked by Fresh Start Accounting and Insider Lifelines

Overall Risk
9/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
8/10
Insolvency
9/10
Earnings Overstated
7/10
Hidden Liabilities
6/10
Legal
5/10
Audit Warnings
3/10
Hidden Upside
2/10
Contextually Acceptable
2/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

Vroom successfully emerged from a prepackaged Chapter 11 reorganization on January 14, 2025, effectively eliminating roughly $290 million in unsecured debt. Since then, the company has pivoted to an asset-light model focused on United Auto Credit (UACC) and CarStory. Recent catalysts include the completion of UACC's 17th subprime auto loan securitization in February 2026 and a $10.5M note purchase agreement in November 2025 to bolster liquidity. (Sources: Vroom Investor Relations, TipRanks)

🐻 Bear Case

The core bear thesis rests on Vroom's exposure to the subprime lending market through UACC, which is highly sensitive to rising delinquency rates and a volatile interest rate environment. Despite shedding debt, the company still faces narrow liquidity margins, with year-end 2025 projections hovering between $35 million and $50 million. Bears argue the transition from a high-volume retailer to a niche fintech/SaaS player lacks the scale to reach long-term profitability. (Sources: Simply Wall St, MarketBeat)

🚩 Red Flags

The primary red flag is the company's recent bankruptcy history and the 'gut-wrenching' 90% workforce reduction executed during the retail wind-down. Furthermore, several analysts maintain a 'Sell' rating, citing a predicted downside and the risk of 'fresh-start' accounting masking underlying operational weaknesses. The stock's extreme volatility and its status as a micro-cap ($66.9M market cap) remain high-risk factors. (Sources: Fintel, Seeking Alpha)

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Now operating as a B2B provider, Vroom faces stiff competition from established automotive lenders (e.g., Ally Financial, Capital One) and specialized fintechs. In the AI analytics space, CarStory must compete with data giants like Cox Automotive (Kelley Blue Book/Autotrader) and JD Power, who have deeper dealer integrations and larger data sets for predictive valuation. (Sources: Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Matrix BCG)

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment is currently in a state of transition. While retail customer sentiment was historically poor—marked by thousands of BBB complaints regarding title delays and poor vehicle condition—the pivot to a B2B model shifts the focus to dealer satisfaction. Initial reports suggest dealers value UACC's financing flexibility, but the brand still carries the 'stigma' of its retail failure, which could hinder new white-label partnership growth. (Sources: NBC KPRC, CBS News Texas)