Stocks/UWMC

UWMC

UWM Holdings Corporation
Financial Services·Financial - Mortgages
$3.06
$4.6B market cap
Claude Rating
2/10SHORT
Revenue
$3.1B
Free Cash Flow
$-5.5B
Rev Growth
+457.8%
FCF Margin
-178.8%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
49.0x
Fair Value
$2.10
Upside
-31.4%

UWM Holdings Corporation engages in the residential mortgage lending business in the United States. The company originates mortgage loans through wholesale channel. It originates primarily conforming and government loans. UWM Holdings Corporation was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Pontiac, Michigan.

2-Year Price History

$3.09-51.5%
$3.0$4.0$5.0$6.0$7.0$8.0volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q1450.0-135.0---36.0--675.0-15.8-5,552----------
Est2027-Q4920.0312.8--46.0---920.0-16.6-6,227----------
Est2027-Q3780.0234.0--42.9---1,560-15.6-5,307----------
Est2027-Q2680.0170.0--27.2---1,020-15.6-3,747----------
Est2027-Q1380.0-190.0---45.6--760.0-17.1-2,727----------
Est2026-Q4850.0272.0--38.3---1,020-17.0-3,487----------
Est2026-Q3710.0198.8--35.5---1,775-15.6-2,467----------
Est2026-Q2620.0136.4--21.7---1,116-15.5-692.0----------
Act2026-Q1901.4332.7330.825.3-2,230-2,249-19.1424.016,216211.47.9%2.4x21.8x
Act2025-Q4945.3328.2559.519.4103.882.0-21.7503.414,439256.915.3%2.3x53.1x
Act2025-Q3470.726.812.7-1.3-3,079-3,090-10.4870.714,526221.40.3%0.2x116.4x
Act2025-Q2784.6343.0329.422.9-265.9-290.1-24.2490.011,240202.111.1%2.6x95.4x
Act2025-Q1161.6-248.2-260.8-13.7593.9576.1-17.8485.011,573153.9-8.5%-2.1x--
Act2024-Q4478.654.542.38.9-543.3-551.6-8.3507.312,841159.81.3%0.4x56.3x
Act2024-Q3459.444.932.3-6.3-2,178-2,191-12.3636.312,11299.81.1%0.3x--
Act2024-Q2449.288.777.13.1-1,317-1,329-11.9680.29,92195.43.1%0.8x95.5x
Act2024-Q1518.7196.6184.38.7-2,203-2,210-7.0605.69,67694.57.5%2.0x46.5x
Act2023-Q4-162.3-456.0-468.4-27.1-329.3-336.1-6.8497.58,72893.3-21.1%-5.6x--
Act2023-Q3619.5314.5301.718.2345.9339.6-6.3729.68,41093.314.3%3.4x30.4x
Act2023-Q2541.4242.2230.07.6-1,844-1,850-5.3634.68,87493.110.3%2.9x28.9x
Act2023-Q1115.5-127.0-139.6-11.91,9931,985-8.0740.17,43492.9-7.4%-2.0x23.1x
Act2022-Q4255.8-56.3-69.3-0.3-2,545-2,551-5.9704.99,78092.5-2.5%-0.5x11.3x
Act2022-Q3635.2342.8330.411.7-547.9-553.3-5.4799.57,08192.618.3%4.7x--
Act2022-Q2500.0228.3216.28.4-391.1-400.3-9.3958.76,87892.512.4%4.0x--
Act2022-Q1755.7469.2457.321.911,75211,746-6.1901.26,4611,59427.9%7.8x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude2/10SHORTFV: $2.10

UWMC is a fundamentally challenged business masquerading as a high-yield income stock. While the company dominates the wholesale mortgage channel and has genuine technological advantages (Mia AI, speed-to-close), these positives are overwhelmed by: (1) extreme leverage now triggering Fitch negative outlook at 2.7x vs 2.0x downgrade trigger, (2) massive ongoing dilution from Class D share exchanges (~61% annual dilution), (3) an unsustainable 14.8% dividend that consistently exceeds actual earnings, draining ~$535M annually from the capital base, (4) deeply problematic governance including $115M in stadium naming rights and $20.8M in rent paid to CEO-controlled entities, and (5) structurally negative cash flows from operations obscured by non-cash MSR gains. The CEO is selling shares at 1-year lows while promoting an aggressive growth narrative. The Two Harbors acquisition attempt appears to be failing. Net income attributable to Class A shareholders ($27M) is a fraction of headline consolidated figures ($244M), meaning public shareholders capture very little of the economics. This is a short candidate.

Catalyst Dividend cut (likely within 4-6 quarters as leverage continues to rise), Fitch downgrade to junk, failed Two Harbors acquisition removing growth narrative, continued insider selling, or a rate shock that hammers MSR values and triggers margin calls on uncommitted warehouse lines.
Risk A significant and sustained decline in mortgage rates could drive a massive refi wave that would temporarily generate enormous origination volumes and revenue, validating the bull case and squeezing the 27.6% short interest.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
4/10
Exp. Move
-8.0%

Latest Earnings Call

Transcript Summary

UWM Holdings Corporation CEO Mat Ishbia used a new earnings format to outline a strategy focused on technological dominance and market share expansion within the broker channel. A key milestone is the move to bring all servicing in-house by year-end, which Ishbia expects will drive down costs and improve retention. He provided a blunt critique of the Two Harbors management team regarding their acquisition bid, while reaffirming the value of their MSR book. On the growth front, Ishbia set an aggressive north star of $1.3 trillion in originations over five years, asserting that AI-driven efficiencies will allow the company to maintain flat quarterly expenses of roughly $600 million even as volume doubles. The success of the Mia AI assistant, which has driven nearly 100,000 closings, and the rapid rollout of the VantageScore credit system highlight UWM’s focus on speed and consumer affordability. Additionally, the BILT partnership introduces a unique rewards program for mortgage payments to boost lead generation. Despite market volatility and temporary fluctuations in debt ratios, Ishbia remains firmly bullish on the broker channel’s potential to capture 50% of the total mortgage market, positioning UWM as the primary beneficiary.

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$3.06
Market Cap$4.6B
Enterprise Value$20.4B
P/S Ratio1.5x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-178.8%
FCF Yield-119.6%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution37.4%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$3.1B
Net Income$66.4M
Free Cash Flow$-5.5B

Revenue Growth (YoY)+457.8%
EBITDA Margin33.2%
Net Margin2.1%
FCF Margin-178.8%
CapEx % of Revenue2.4%
SBC % of Revenue1.8%
ROIC8.7%
WC Change % Rev-69.3%
Interest Coverage1.9x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$-10.50
-443.0% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$-22.2B
− Net Debt$15.8B
= Fair Equity$-2.2B
Revenue Growth10.5% → 3.0%
FCF Margin-178.8% → 4.0%
Discount Rate17.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float27.7%
Short Shares36.7M
Days to Cover3.4
Change (vs Prior)+0.3%
Short % Float History
27.70%+12.10pp
15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)56%
Put IV (ATM)75%
ATM Spread4.8%
Call $OI (near money)$1.3M
Put $OI (near money)$3.6M
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$3.0
Major Expirations7
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$1.00$1.75/$2.3522--/$1.100
$2.00$0.75/$1.4510--/$0.1527
$3.00$0.25/$0.40148$0.25/$0.35805
$4.00$0.05/$0.105,432$0.80/$1.30827
$5.00--/$1.002,490$1.70/$2.35240
$6.00--/$0.051,412$2.40/$3.6077
$7.00--/$0.30801$3.40/$4.606
$8.00--/$0.206$4.40/$5.600
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-17.5%
Forward FCF Margin-123.1%
Forward EBITDA Margin16.3%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage0.8x
Model Risk Score9/10
Bankruptcy Odds12%
Est. Borrow Rate9.5%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x
LT Growth3.0%
LT FCF Margin4.0%

Employees

Headcount9,100
Revenue / Employee$340,871
Gross Profit / Employee$281,298
2022: 1,300 → 2023: 1,400 → 2024: 1,800 → 2025: 2,200 (19% CAGR)

Cash Runway

0.9months
CRITICAL

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 58.2% of float, sold 12.8%. 15 filers moved >1% of shares (13 buying, 2 selling).

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+45.4% of float (net)
Bought 58.2% · Sold 12.8%
303 filers reported (last quarter: 320)

Ownership composition

Active
11.3%(-0.1% YoY)
259 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
2.1%(-0.5% YoY)
6 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.4%(+0.3% YoY)
8 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
0.3%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
FMR LLC$96.0M$4.34+$38.0M+$41.3M+0.3%$1.89T
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$45.6M$5.99+$2.3M+$21.2M-0.2%$5.69T
Freestone Grove Partners LP$35.3M$3.94+$31.0M+$25.9M+1.2%$13.77B
KING STREET CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.$28.2M$4.13+$11.6M+$28.2M+2.9%$328M
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$27.9M$5.12+$6.4M+$19.4M-0.7%$117.03B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$25.2M$4.31+$14.1M+$18.2M-0.1%$1.36T
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$25.0M$4.28+$21.0M+$19.6M-0.2%$755.34B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$22.2M$4.42+$19.5M+$19.9M-0.2%$760.93B
Diameter Capital Partners LP$21.0M$3.40+$11.0M+$21.0M+3.3%$446M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$15.4M$4.68+$1.7M+$9.4M+2.3%$1.61T
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$15.1M$6.32−$9.2M−$32.1M-0.4%$138.22B
MORGAN STANLEY$14.5M$4.47+$4.1M+$6.2M-0.3%$1.65T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$13.2M$4.46+$1.6M+$7.1M-0.2%$2.89T
CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD$13.0M$3.62+$13.0M+$13.0M+0.6%$155.02B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$12.8M$4.25−$5.0M+$8.0M+1.2%$63.91B
TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL$12.8M$4.21+$371K+$11.1M-0.2%$17.85B
PLATINUM EQUITY, LLC$10.8M$2.89+$0−$6.9M+1.7%$32.3M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$10.4M$4.79−$5.0M+$1.4M-0.2%$218.19B
Alyeska Investment Group, L.P.$10.3M$3.94+$4.3M+$10.3M-0.4%$35.33B
BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS$9.3M$4.93−$5.3M+$7.8M-0.2%$149.31B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
+0.34%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.40%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.50%
113 buyers · $0.20B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.41%
86 sellers · $0.15B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-10.0%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+11.8%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+6.6%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+1.5%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+0.6%
Sellers' overall flow ~ flat.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-7.6%
Holder mid (any stock)
-5.6%
Holder rally (any stock)
-8.5%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

015.9M31.8M47.7M63.5M$2.27$3.59$4.90$6.22$7.542021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
FMR LLC26.5MCITADEL ADVISORS LLC4.2MMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC2.3MBRANDES INVESTMENT PARTNERS, LPAzora Capital LP683 Capital Management, LLCPLATINUM EQUITY, LLC3.0MKING STREET CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.7.8MDiameter Capital Partners LP5.8MFreestone Grove Partners LP9.8M

Related Stocks

Investors who own this also own

Stocks held by the same active managers as this one, ranked by score — how much more often these appear together than random chance (1× = baseline). Excludes index ETFs and market makers; minimum 3 shared holders.

TickerNameCo-holdersScore
RKTRocket Companies, Inc.357.74×

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (4 analysts)$5.859120.0%
Last Year (9 analysts)$5.778860.0%
Current Price$3.06

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$45.3M
Incentive & Other$65.4M
Total Compensation$110.7M
% of Revenue1.8%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$643.79M
219 txns · 1 insider · 135,920,017 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-08SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,003,333$3.39$3.40M$0
2026-05-07SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,003,333$3.39$3.40M$3.40M
2026-05-06SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,003,333$3.66$3.67M$7.29M
2026-05-05SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,003,333$3.45$3.46M$10.34M
2026-05-04SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,003,333$3.57$3.58M$14.28M
2026-05-01SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,001,024$3.62$3.62M$18.11M
2026-04-30SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO934,061$3.53$3.30M$8.46M
2026-04-29SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.50$3.50M$11.66M
2026-04-28SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO986,644$3.66$3.61M$15.86M
2026-04-27SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.78$3.78M$20.11M
2026-04-24SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.75$3.75M$23.70M
2026-04-23SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.65$3.65M$26.72M
2026-04-22SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.70$3.70M$30.79M
2026-04-21SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.82$3.82M$35.61M
2026-04-20SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.94$3.94M$40.67M
2026-04-17SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.93$3.93M$44.50M
2026-04-16SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.76$3.76M$46.33M
2026-04-15SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.78$3.78M$50.36M
2026-04-14SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.71$3.71M$12.33M
2026-04-13SELLMat Ishbiadirector, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO1,000,574$3.66$3.66M$15.83M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

30.2%retail+8.9pp
21.5%dark-2.4pp
week of 2026-04-27
10%20%30%40%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

UWM Holdings Corp: Administrative Shell Lacks Substantive Forensic Data

Overall Risk
1/10
Fraud
1/10
Dilution
1/10
Insolvency
1/10
Earnings Overstated
1/10
Hidden Liabilities
1/10
Legal
1/10
Audit Warnings
1/10
Hidden Upside
1/10
Contextually Acceptable
10/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In May 2026, UWMC reported a Q1 earnings miss with an EPS of $0.0457 against expectations of $0.06, continuing a trend of missing consensus estimates (Zacks, May 2026). The company is currently embroiled in a hostile takeover attempt of Two Harbors Investment Corp (TWO), which has repeatedly rejected UWM's $12/share bid in favor of a lower $11.30 offer from CrossCountry Mortgage, citing UWM's 'financing, closing, and credibility risks' (HousingWire, May 2024; Stock Titan, May 2026). Concurrently, CEO Mat Ishbia (via SFS Corp) executed significant insider sales in April and May 2026, offloading over 3 million shares as the stock hit 1-year lows (MarketBeat, May 2026).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on 'historically high leverage' and an unsustainable dividend payout that is draining the company's capital base. Fitch Ratings revised UWMC’s outlook to 'Negative' in April 2026, noting that corporate leverage (2.7x) significantly exceeds the 2.0x downgrade trigger (Fitch, April 2026). Skeptics argue that UWM's 11%+ dividend yield is a 'mask for structural risk,' as quarterly distributions of ~$170M frequently exceed actual earnings, leading to a steady erosion of tangible equity (Seeking Alpha, May 2026). Furthermore, the company's reliance on the 'All-In' broker initiative is seen as a vulnerability if regulatory or legal pressure forces a shift away from 'captive' broker models.

🚩 Red Flags

A major red flag is the Fitch outlook revision to Negative due to 'rising corporate leverage' and an average annual capital drain of $535M over the last three years (Fitch, April 2026). Additionally, a new class-action lawsuit (Mogck v. UWM) was filed in March 2026 alleging UWM is liable for brokers' unsolicited 'harassment' texts sent via UWM's proprietary AI tools (MPA Mag, March 2026). Insider selling during a period of heavy stock promotion and an aggressive acquisition campaign also signals a lack of long-term confidence from management (MarketBeat, May 2026).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

UWM faces a dual threat from long-time rival Rocket Mortgage and the rising prominence of CrossCountry Mortgage (CCM). CCM is currently winning the battle for Two Harbors' Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) platform, which would have nearly doubled UWM's servicing footprint (MPA Mag, May 2026). UWM's aggressive 'Game On' pricing and 'All-In' exclusivity mandates have sparked ongoing retaliation and legal challenges from competitors, which UWM leadership claims are funded by Rocket's Dan Gilbert to 'smear' the company (HousingWire, April 2024; National Mortgage Professional, April 2024).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment among actual borrowers and some brokers is sharply negative, evidenced by a 2.2/5 'Poor' rating on Trustpilot and numerous complaints on the BBB (Trustpilot, May 2026). Recent reviews cite 'rude/unhelpful staff,' 'escrow errors,' and 'massive disconnects' in the servicing process (BlueRate, Dec 2025). Many customers report being harassed by 'non-stop' solicitation calls and texts, with some alleging that UWM-affiliated brokers target veterans specifically for VA loan churning (BBB, April 2026).

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q1 • 2026-05-06

Mathew R. Ishbia: Thanks for joining today. I appreciate you all. Obviously, a little different format this quarter. Hopefully you like it. We would love to get feedback on it. This probably fits my style more. Hopefully, if possible, I would love to be able to see you too. I do not think we set it up that way this time; maybe next time. I appreciate everyone being here today. I have a bunch of questions, so I am going to go through them. I know last quarter we did not do Q&A and people missed that, so I am happy to do this and make it valuable to you in any way possible about the industry and about UWM Holdings Corporation. I have a whole variety of questions. I will try not to duplicate and will tie some together. I will read a person’s name, read the question, and go through it. If anyone has any follow-up questions, I know I cannot take them live this way, but our investor relations team, Blake and everybody else, will be able to handle your questions and help you with anything you need. Let us get started. We will jump into it right now. First question, I have Doug Harter from BTIG: What is the status of bringing servicing in-house? What is the latest timeline transitioning all servicing to our own platform? Status of bringing servicing in-house: it is going fantastic. We feel really great about where servicing is right now and how it is going. We have fewer than 100 thousand loans on today, but all new are going on, and we have moved a bunch of loans over from Cenlar already. We feel really good about that. The process will be this year. Over the whole year, we will bring all of our loans in-house so there will be no subservicers by the end of this year. UWM Holdings Corporation will handle it all. It is going really great. Our technology process is going great. We partnered with Black Knight, we partnered with BILT, and we have also built a bunch of stuff ourselves. We feel really good about how that is going. Our client service has been excellent. All the metrics that people look at are fantastic, so we feel really good about that across the board. So servicing in-house is great. Transition timeline: that is this year. Hopefully that answers your question, Doug. I know there are a lot of servicing questions. I am sure I will get to them as we go through it. Next one, Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs: What are your thoughts on future gain-on-sale margins? What does the competitive landscape look like in a heightened rate environment? Rates went up in March from February. I think the 10-year finished at 3.95%. And so seeing rates go up, how does that impact competitive landscape and gain-on-sale margins? We are in a really great position from a margin and competitive position standpoint. The competitive landscape is very competitive right now. A heightened rate environment means purchases more than refi. However, you looked at our first quarter—we did a heck of a job on the refinance side. I see gain-on-sale margins in the range they are in right now being the right range, and I think that will continue: not significantly higher, not significantly lower. I actually think there is upside in the margins. Our margins were pretty strong in the first quarter. I expect them to be in those ranges again in the second quarter. If rates come down, you could see margins increase. The competitive landscape is very competitive out there right now. We had a great first quarter—you saw the numbers and what we did—and first quarter is usually the slowest quarter. Rates going up, the war going on, and uncertainty create issues in the rate environment, but we feel really good about where it is at right now. Ryan Nash also asked thoughts on the Knicks winning it all. They have a very, very good team. We just lost to Oklahoma City, who is an amazing team too. The East is open. The Knicks have a real good chance. Not really cheering for anybody—I am just watching and learning. Good luck to your Knicks. Next question, Mark DeVries from Deutsche Bank: What is the strategic value you see in Two Harbors, and what updates can you share regarding its progress or impact? The Two Harbors thing is out there right now; it is interesting. When we originally went to acquire the company, they had something really great: a pristine servicing book. When we originally agreed on the deal before all the work was done, we thought there would be a lot of synergies also—capital markets expertise, maybe some finance expertise, and their servicing platform we could learn from. As we went through due diligence, we learned there was a really great servicing book, and we still like that servicing book. We originally put an offer out there. Where that stands now: we do not see as much value in their management team. Their team members are very good, but their leadership team—we were not as impressed with. They went out and tried to get another bid, and they did. Whether it was appropriate or not, we can discuss that at a later point. If they would have engaged with us, we always planned on paying $12. Quite honestly, based on when the stock price went down, I would rather pay it in cash than in stock. I feel like I am giving my stock away at a really low price. They never engaged—they just went out to another offer. We made another offer; they basically ignored it. We made another one and said, okay, we will go to $12—what we originally planned on paying. I think it was maybe $11.95, but you can do the math based on when the stock was at $5.11 or $5.15 the day we cut the deal, I think. We still feel really good about that deal. It is very clear that their management team and their board, which has had its own issues in the past with lawsuits and such, may be playing some games because they realize that we do not see any value for them specifically. They have really great shareholders, which we are excited to bring on to UWM Holdings Corporation. But their board and their management team do not have any value to us. Now they are trying to do anything they can to potentially engage with someone else so that they have jobs and sustainability. It will play out. The strategic value is their MSR book. Their shareholders have some value because we got a chance to get to know them during that process and feel like they are really good shareholders; we would love them to be UWM Holdings Corporation shareholders. Whether they take cash or stock does not matter to me. We feel really good about that. For the shareholders of Two Harbors, they obviously would prefer taking $12 in cash or UWM Holdings Corporation shares than taking $11.30 in cash. That is obviously going to play out that way. We feel good about the strategic value. It is very clear to us that it is the MSR book and the shareholders; we do not have any value for their leadership team, which is obviously not what they like to hear. Next, Mikhail Goberman from Citizens Bank: How do you foresee the balance between origination income and servicing income evolving, especially given the post-war reversal of rates seen since February? We are an origination company. We are the biggest and best originator in the country. We feel great about where we are in origination. You saw an amazing first quarter. We have been the number one originator for four straight years and the number one wholesale lender for eleven straight years. Origination is our game. As we bring servicing in-house, we will have more servicing, and we will continue to retain the servicing. Are we still opportunistic if someone gives me a bid that we believe is more than the intrinsic value? I will sell the servicing. I have those options. With the lower cost of servicing by bringing it in-house and the better level of service, which will help retention, we feel like we have the best of all of it. We will see with the income levels—origination versus servicing—but origination is still our game. We will continue to build out the servicing book, but we are always opportunistic. People call us all the time. Even with Two Harbors—some of the “pristine” servicing book they have happens to be our old servicing book that we sold them. We feel good about the paper we originate every day and servicing the loans, but if someone wants to offer us a great opportunistic price, we will always look at that. Jason Stewart from Compass Point: Was there an increased number of high-producing brokers affiliated with UWM Holdings Corporation during the quarter supporting wholesale channel growth? Good question. High-producing broker shops affiliated with UWM Holdings Corporation—I always say the numbers roughly—there are about 12 thousand to 12.5 thousand brokers that work with UWM Holdings Corporation, and maybe there are 400–500 that are not all-in with UWM Holdings Corporation. So there are not that many high-producing shops to bring over. Almost everyone in the market works with UWM Holdings Corporation. That is why we have almost 45% market share—I think it is 44.7% or 44.8% market share for the year last year in the pro channel. Our big focus is to grow the channel, help brokers do more, and help more originators realize that broker is the place to go—whether they join a broker shop or start their own—and that has been a really big focus. As the broker channel grows, UWM Holdings Corporation will grow, even if our market share happened to go down. I feel great about growing the broker channel. Are brokers coming over to join UWM Holdings Corporation? Yes, every single day people see the value of what UWM Holdings Corporation does. A separate note on the “all-in” thing with brokers from years ago: one of the biggest adversaries of UWM Holdings Corporation was a guy named Mike Fawaz at Rocket who was saying negative things about UWM Holdings Corporation and about what we do and how UWM Holdings Corporation was not best for brokers. Recently, he left Rocket, started a broker shop, called me, and now he is working with UWM Holdings Corporation. Someone that knows every detail at Rocket came and learned about UWM Holdings Corporation, started a broker shop, and picked to work with UWM Holdings Corporation. That sends a message. There are not that many big broker shops left out there that do not work with us, but that is an opportunity. The bigger thing is to grow the broker channel and continue to grow. The broker channel is continuing to be very positive, and we are excited about the growth. I have a couple of questions on Mia and the AI initiative, so let me combine them. One person asked about Mia’s text messaging capabilities and customer response to Mia generally. Let me give you a Mia update. Mia has been fantastic. It has been almost a year—I rolled it out at UWM Live last year—and it has been amazing. I would say roughly in the range of 80 thousand to 100 thousand closings over the last year have come from Mia. The last report I saw was very strong with Mia’s initiation of refinance opportunities. If you look at our servicing book, people ask, “You have 2% or 3% of the servicing book, but you did 12% or 13% of all refinances.” Mia is a big part of that. Brokers do a great job with the consumer upfront; consumers want to come back to the broker. The problem was brokers did an average to below-average job of following up with their past clients. They would do the purchase and then would not talk to them again. Now, with Mia, she is keeping the broker in front of the consumer. When the consumer goes to refinance, they work with the broker because the broker offers a better deal anyway; they just know who to call. Mia leaves voicemails and sends a text message out. She calls, and about 40% of her calls get picked up, which is higher than we expected, so 60% go to voicemail and we send a text message also. A lot of those call the broker back: “Was that AI or was that real?” Then they connect and do a loan. On the 40% that pick up—on a 40 thousand-call day, about 16 thousand—borrowers talk to Mia and have two-, three-, four-minute conversations. Some of them know it is AI and some do not—it has gotten that good. We send a follow-up email to the broker: “You have a call scheduled at 3 PM with Jenny, the borrower,” and it has been very successful. We are continuing to enhance it and make it better. The scale we are doing with our IT team has been phenomenal. I do not know anyone in any industry doing it at this scale. It is going to get better next week at UWM Live and beyond. We have big enhancements coming. It helps brokers win. That is a big part of how with 2% or 3% of the servicing book we are doing 12%–13% of refis—Mia and great brokers staying in front of their clients. Kyle Joseph asked to review industry competitive trends, current broker share, and how we anticipate it evolving. Current broker share is about 28%. Five years ago, in early 2020, it was 14%–15%, so it has almost doubled. Will it double again? We are working on it. Our goal is to help brokers be the number one overall channel—50.1%—and we are on a path to doing that. Our share has been very steady—over 40% for years now, roughly between 40% and 45%. That has never been done in the wholesale channel. It is because we provide value: we help brokers grow, look good to real estate agents, do more business, make the process easier, and be successful. We train them, coach them, and give them tools to win more loans. We will continue to be the best and the biggest in wholesale and overall. Being the largest lender in the country for four straight years, we only have a chance at 28 out of 100 loans. Every other lender is competing for 100 out of 100. If that 72 out of 100 that is retail moves to 65, 60, or 50, that is growth for UWM Holdings Corporation. That is why we are bullish on our growth and the broker growth—we are all going to win together. I also got a couple of questions tied to expenses. You saw our expenses went down. We invested a lot for years, and now we are starting to see the harvesting or success of those investments—TrackPlus, free credit reports to help brokers grow, and more. You will see more of a leveling out of expenses. They went down. Our investments are starting to pay off. You saw a little in the first quarter. Compared to the industry, we had a great quarter. Last year’s first quarter was $32 billion; this year we did about $45 billion. That is significant. Our gain on sale was up and volume is up year-over-year. Expenses are flat or down. We feel good about where we are from an expenses perspective. I think of them as investments, and they are paying off. Mikhail Goberman had another question on the new VantageScore rating system for borrower credit. Kudos to the leadership of FHFA on rolling out a new way. FICO scores and credit reports have gotten really expensive. With a competitor in there, you have options. Options create better outcomes—that is why wholesale works. Now FICO and Vantage are both striving to be the best. There were very few companies put on the pilot; we were one of them. I think it rolled out less than two weeks ago from FHFA Director Sandra Thompson with the support of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Four business days later—Wednesday of last week—we rolled it out. VantageScore has been an enormous success. Not just saving $50 a credit report, though that is possible too. We have both FICO and VantageScore and are making sure borrowers get the best opportunity because they have different models. Vantage looks at thinner credit differently, can add rent and other things so more people can qualify or qualify with a little bit higher score. Under current comparability, you take a 20-point haircut from Vantage to FICO. So if a Vantage score is 744, that is equivalent of 724 in FICO. If the FICO score was 719, I just got that borrower a better deal with lower LLPAs. That is a win for consumers. In five business days, the amount of emails I have gotten on loans we have helped brokers win and consumers grateful that they can qualify for a home or got a better interest rate and lower fees has been phenomenal. Kudos to FHFA, to Fannie and Freddie for getting it out. We rolled it out with VA loans today, and FHA will be soon. MI companies like Essent and Enact are on it too. FICO is still great in many ways. It is not one or the other—both are great. We want to help consumers qualify for a mortgage and have better credit profiles. The rollout was done in four business days and worked flawlessly—our IT team did a heck of a job. Others may have it out in May or June. We are rolling with it now—saving loans, helping loans, giving better deals right now because of Vantage. I have a couple of questions on the BILT partnership. Indications of the BILT card relationship, increased leads, status of the partnership, and infrastructure in place. BILT—Ankur Jain, the CEO—is phenomenal. Their vision is great. UWM Holdings Corporation is a servicer; we brought servicing in-house. We are controlling everything. We chose a platform on the front end that provides rewards points to consumers for making their mortgage on time without using a credit card—they can use ACH and still get points. That has never been done in our industry. Rewards points for making your mortgage on time. People love points. You can also link your credit card and get points—your American Express points and BILT points—and use them for flights and other things. It is really cool. Beyond that, the servicing platform is slick. We built this with them, because they had never done this before on the front end for mortgage. It is great for consumers. BILT has over 6 million consumers and, depending on the year, 8%–10% of them buy houses. Those are curated leads. They will want to stay on the BILT platform and work with a mortgage broker. That is a huge opportunity. We already had that in pilot. There is a concierge service that gives our consumers—our brokers’ consumers—an amazing platform to get things done and make their life easier. It is a cool neighborhood experience. Ankur is going to speak at UWM Live next week—if you are there, you will understand it better. The vision is awesome. The key is UWM Holdings Corporation has servicing in-house. We have been the best originator in the country for a long time; we are going to be the best servicer because we are focused on it. It will help retention for our brokers and make the consumer experience better, with ancillary benefits too. The partnership is launched, rolling, fully active, and getting better every day—as we do with everything at UWM Holdings Corporation. We do not have all 700 thousand consumers on it yet; those are moving on to it. I have shadowed the team. The servicing process has been really great. You asked in the past why we did not do it—I always said focus on originations. We still do. The cost/expense will be great on servicing, not outsourcing anymore. Better yet, retention and experience for consumers and our brokers will be even better. We are excited about that. I also got questions on what we see in the business for the next three to five years (and even ten). Here is my high-level view. Over a five-year window—call it 2027 to 2031—we are expecting to do over $1.3 trillion in mortgages. There might be one year in there with $400 billion, and a year with $150–$200 billion, but I believe $1.3 trillion is the north star over five years. While that happens, my expenses basically stay the same. With our AI initiative and our technology, the expenses you see today—call it roughly $600 million in the quarter (I think it was about $590 million)—I expect that to be the level even as volume more than doubles. On top of that, I see another roughly 20%–25% in other revenue coming into UWM Holdings Corporation starting to happen with some ancillary products that are picking up steam. So revenue growth outside of just volume and gain-on-sale. To summarize: $1.3 trillion over five years, gain-on-sale margins in these ranges (maybe slightly higher), expenses flat or down (I will call it flat), and other revenue tied to AI initiatives that are starting to produce margin and other revenues. If I did not answer a shorter-term detail, Blake Kolo and investor relations are happy to talk anytime. Kyle Joseph: How are you thinking about the Homebuyer Privacy Protection Act (trigger lead rule) and potential impacts on competitive environment and overall margin? The trigger lead rule (effective March 4) definitely changed things. When a consumer used to pull credit, 50 people would call them. Now it is the servicer, the original lender, original broker, maybe their bank—three or four. That has changed the competitive landscape and is probably a better experience for consumers (fewer calls). On the flip side, consumers may not get as many options. You might get offered 6.5% with $5 thousand of fees and not know you could have gotten 6.25% with $3 thousand of fees working with a mortgage broker—going to mortgagematchup.com. Trigger leads made people compete more. From a competitive landscape, you could argue it is maybe not as good for consumers on rates and fees, though experience is better. If you are only winning on rates and fees, you will not be around long in this business. I could argue it may increase margins a little because there is less “low-ball to win” with fewer calls. It has been about 60 days—still early—but that is what we are seeing. Brokers who used trigger leads are finding other ways to buy data. It is still competitive, just a lot less noisy. A couple have asked about debt ratios: Why did secured debt go up relative to other aspects of the balance sheet, and how do we look at the debt ratio? We look at the debt ratios every day. The debt ratio was really good a couple of years ago when volume was not as good. Now the business is really good, and the debt ratios are not as good as we would like. Some of those ratios and liquidity numbers are a little bit of an anomaly based on trades we have out there to help balance the MSR book, which can move around. At the end of the quarter, it was up; it has already come down a bit now. Those fluctuations can throw the ratios off a little; they are better than they appear. We feel really good about it. We watch the numbers closely. The key is earnings. You saw we had a good earnings quarter in the first quarter. There will be quarters with bigger earnings. We are monitoring and managing it. We believe in delivering value to shareholders—dividends, which we have been doing, and potentially buybacks or other things. Overall, our leverage ratios and debt ratio—we feel really good. We monitor and manage them, and there are a lot of levers we can pull to make those ratios better while still doing more business and having higher earnings. You will see some of those in the second quarter and beyond. Jason Stewart from Compass Point: During periods of heightened volatility at the start of the year, how do you manage lock duration and pricing cadence? Do you increase frequency of rate sheet updates? How much volatility is absorbed? And impact of things like Purchase Boost 50 and pricing initiatives? The market has been very volatile. We have an extremely experienced capital markets team. Yes, sometimes you have two or three different rate sheets in a day—maybe four or five on rare days. If rates get better, we put an improvement out there to ensure brokers have the most competitive opportunity. If pricing gets worse, we worsen pricing. These numbers move all day. We have thresholds that move pricing up or down; when we hit those, we act. Some days you put a rate sheet out at 10 AM and nothing changes all day, or not enough to change pricing—we want some consistency for our clients as well. That balance is why you saw really strong margins in the fourth quarter and first quarter, and you will see strong margins in the second quarter. Built-in rewards have nothing to do with gain-on-sale or pricing; it is just another benefit for brokers and consumers because they get rewards points through BILT. On Purchase Boost 50 and other pricing initiatives: all are designed to help brokers succeed and win. Our brokers are not “I need the lowest price” to succeed. If lowest price alone won, they would cut comp in half and all use Provident. That is not how it works. A lot of our price incentives are more strategic. They incent brokers with price to use a tool of ours. For example, we had an incentive tied to 40–45 bps if you used hybrid or virtual closing because it makes the consumer experience better. That makes the consumer more likely to like you and refinance with you in the future. We track borrower happiness on every single loan. A lot of those are investments and are reflected in gain-on-sale. We did some of that in Q4 and Q1, and gain-on-sale is still much higher than last year’s Q1—about 123 bps in the first quarter (about 122 in the fourth). We track it daily and understand where we are. We give a very competitive price to our brokers, add significant value to help them win more loans, and provide the best service in the industry. We come out with AI tools and technology; we invest with free credit reports to help brokers compete even more and help more consumers. Many of these decisions are strategic to help brokers win. Sometimes a broker has never done a virtual closing, and the extra 45 bps gets them to do it, and then they continue doing it because they realize it is best for the consumer and helps them build their business. If brokers win, UWM Holdings Corporation wins. When consumers realize the fastest, easiest, cheapest way to get a mortgage is through brokers, UWM Holdings Corporation wins. Real estate agents win. We are one team because it is best for consumers. When a consumer goes to a random commercial or their local bank, they usually pay higher rates. When a consumer goes to mortgagematchup.com, they will find a broker who will get them a better rate, better fees, and a better experience. Anything I can do to drive more business there is what I will do. UWM Live is next week. It is the biggest mortgage event of the year. Please come. I will be there all day. We have great speakers. It is really cool to see the broker community. I will meet with investors and analysts—happy to spend time. We have covered a lot of the questions. Let me know how you like the format. Maybe next month, I can see you too, and we can have more interaction. Hopefully you like the format. I know last quarter you did not like that we did not do Q&A, so I am here for it. I love this. I will do this anytime. I enjoy talking about our business and the industry. Please give us feedback—give our investor relations team feedback on the format. If I did not answer your question, investor relations—Blake and the whole team—will answer all your questions. We appreciate you. Thanks for being partners of UWM Holdings Corporation—shareholders, investors, analysts. Anything we can do to help make your life easier. We are going to keep winning together with our brokers. The broker community and UWM Holdings Corporation will continue to grow with my amazing team members here. Thank you for your time. I am excited about the future here at UWM Holdings Corporation. The second quarter is going to be great as well. We will do the same format again unless we get a lot of feedback that you did not like it. Hopefully you did, and hopefully it was valuable to spend this time with me. Have a great day.
Blake Kolo: The video is not, but we can hear you. They can hear you. Okay.