UPB
Upstream Bio, Inc.Healthcare·Biotechnology
$8.36
$455M market cap
Revenue
$1.7M
Free Cash Flow
$-78.5M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
-4614.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
--
Upside
--
Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases that focuses on severe respiratory disorders. It develops verekitug, a monoclonal antibody that targets and inhibits the thymic stromal lymphopoietin receptor. The company also develops therapies to treat severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Upstream Bio, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.
2-Year Price History
$8.37-62.0%
Quarterly Financials & Projections
Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 1.0 | -43.6 | -43.6 | -40.6 | -47.9 | -47.9 | -0.0 | 294.6 | 1.1 | 54.3 | -235.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.7 | -46.1 | -46.2 | -42.5 | -30.6 | -30.7 | -0.1 | 341.5 | 1.3 | 54.2 | -165.4% | -- | -- |
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
Price$8.36
Market Cap$455M
Enterprise Value$161M
P/S Ratio267.3x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-4614.0%
FCF Yield-17.3%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD
TTM Financial Snapshot
Revenue$1.7M
Net Income$-83.0M
Free Cash Flow$-78.5M
Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin-5268.9%
Net Margin-4879.6%
FCF Margin-4614.0%
CapEx % of Revenue2.8%
SBC % of Revenue420.3%
ROIC-200.5%
WC Change % Rev-81.2%
Interest Coverage--
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Short % of Float--
Short Shares3.2M
Days to Cover5.7
Change (vs Prior)+6.6%
Need at least 2 settlement dates for chart
Employees
Headcount52
Revenue / Employee$32,731
Gross Profit / Employee$31,788
Cash Runway
45.0months
WATCH
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
NEUTRAL
Net flow · —still filing
No float data — flow unavailable.
Ownership composition
Active
71.7%(+18.5% YoY)
126 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
—
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
16.1%(+12.2% YoY)
11 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
2 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
—
Form 4 — latest per insider
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | $72.9M | $15.46 | +$5.3M | +$7.6M | -0.0% | $1.89T |
| ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | $51.2M | $16.44 | +$0 | +$0 | -8.1% | $4.38B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $30.3M | $17.41 | +$236K | +$19.7M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| Decheng Capital LLC | $24.5M | $16.44 | −$3.8M | −$5.0M | -0.3% | $661M |
| Enavate Sciences GP, LLC | $22.1M | $16.44 | +$0 | +$0 | +15.1% | $352M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $16.9M | $9.00 | +$16.9M | +$16.9M | — | $4.04T |
| Y-Intercept (Hong Kong) Ltd | $9.0M | $9.84 | +$8.6M | +$9.0M | -0.1% | $5.27B |
| FEDERATED HERMES, INC. | $8.8M | $9.01 | +$8.8M | +$8.8M | -1.1% | $61.33B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $8.6M | $14.61 | +$888K | +$4.9M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $8.4M | $17.84 | +$3.8M | +$7.9M | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| SEB Asset Management AB | $7.9M | $9.00 | +$7.9M | +$7.9M | — | $23.37B |
| Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC | $7.8M | $16.12 | −$4.2M | −$12.9M | -0.1% | $1.11B |
| Woodline Partners LP | $7.5M | $17.58 | +$641K | +$2.5M | -0.1% | $26.43B |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. | $7.4M | $9.60 | +$7.1M | +$7.4M | -0.3% | $118.02B |
| Parkman Healthcare Partners LLC | $7.1M | $10.82 | −$430K | +$5.0M | -2.1% | $965M |
| Samsara BioCapital, LLC | $6.6M | $16.44 | +$0 | −$12.0M | -3.8% | $1.03B |
| Pictet Asset Management Holding SA | $6.6M | $27.15 | −$357K | +$6.6M | -1.1% | $94.52B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $6.5M | $9.00 | +$6.5M | +$6.5M | — | $1.91T |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $6.3M | $18.09 | −$5.5M | +$3.7M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| HSBC HOLDINGS PLC | $5.8M | $9.00 | +$5.8M | +$5.8M | -0.1% | $167.40B |
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.
Trading behavior
Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BEARISH
Holders
-1.07%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.63%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-1.52%
62 buyers · $0.10B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.24%
36 sellers · $0.33B out
alpha coverage: 92% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-7.5%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-4.6%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+10.5%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+0.5%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+0.4%
Sellers' overall flow ~ flat.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-4.2%
Holder mid (any stock)
-4.6%
Holder rally (any stock)
-5.9%
Biggest decreases this quarter
JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLCexited−$41.4MOmega Fund Management, LLCexited−$36.0MVR Adviser, LLCexited−$31.7MIntegral Health Asset Management, LLCexited−$20.4MVestal Point Capital, LPexited−$19.5MSiren, L.L.C.exited−$16.0MAltshuler Shaham Ltd−$8.7Mα+0.4GREAT POINT PARTNERS LLCexited−$8.1MJENNISON ASSOCIATES LLCexited−$7.8MSquadron Capital Management LLCexited−$6.3M
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 49.7%
FMR LLC--
ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC--
BlackRock, Inc.--
Decheng Capital LLC--
Enavate Sciences GP, LLC--
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
FMR LLC8.1MORBIMED ADVISORS LLC5.7MDecheng Capital LLC2.7MNORGES BANK—Enavate Sciences GP, LLC2.5MUBS Group AG231KBain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC867KTCG Crossover Management, LLC181KJANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC—VR Adviser, LLC—
Analyst Coverage
Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (1 analysts)$15.007940.0%
Last Year (3 analysts)$37.6735060.0%
Current Price$8.36
Analyst Ratings
1
1
Buy: 1Hold: 1Consensus: Buy
Corporate
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$47K
5 txns · 5 insiders · 5,013 sh
Recent transactions
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | SELL | Ambrose Allison | officer: General Counsel | 475 | $9.29 | $4K | $154K |
| 2026-03-16 | SELL | Deykin Aaron | officer: Chief Medical Officer | 894 | $9.29 | $8K | $304K |
| 2026-03-16 | SELL | GRAY MICHAEL | officer: CFO and COO | 852 | $9.29 | $8K | $275K |
| 2026-03-16 | SELL | Houghton Adam | officer: Chief Business Officer | 699 | $9.29 | $6K | $226K |
| 2026-03-16 | SELL | Sutherland Everett Rand | director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | 2,093 | $9.29 | $19K | $677K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
17.1%retail-1.8pp
24.8%dark+0.6pp
week of 2026-04-13
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
UPSTREAM BIO, INC.: High-Burn Biotech with Perpetual Dilution and Executive Churn
Overall Risk
6/10
Fraud
2/10
Dilution
8/10
Insolvency
4/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
3/10
Legal
1/10
Audit Warnings
3/10
Hidden Upside
6/10
Contextually Acceptable
8/10