UI

Ubiquiti Inc.
Technology·Communication Equipment
$583.86
$35.3B market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$3.1B
Free Cash Flow
$749.8M
Rev Growth
+18.7%
FCF Margin
24.2%
P/FCF
47.1x
EV/FCF
46.7x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
28.0x
Fair Value
$420.00
Upside
-28.1%

Ubiquiti Inc. develops networking technology for service providers, enterprises, and consumers. It develops technology platforms for high-capacity distributed Internet access, unified information technology, and consumer electronics for professional, home, and personal use. Its service provider product platforms offer carrier-class network infrastructure for fixed wireless broadband, wireless backhaul systems, and routing; and enterprise product platforms provide wireless LAN infrastructure, vid

2-Year Price History

$610.81+331.9%
$200$400$600$800$1.0kvolMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q2950.0342.0--261.3--237.5-5.72,230----------
Est2028-Q1895.0317.7--241.7--250.6-5.41,992----------
Est2027-Q4940.0338.4--258.5--216.2-6.61,742----------
Est2027-Q3920.0335.8--257.6--248.4-5.51,525----------
Est2027-Q2890.0324.9--249.2--231.4-5.31,277----------
Est2027-Q1830.0298.8--228.3--249.0-5.01,046----------
Est2026-Q4870.0317.6--243.6--191.4-6.1796.7----------
Est2026-Q3845.0311.0--240.8--236.6-5.1605.3----------
Act2026-Q3788.2290.8290.8233.9167.8162.2-5.6368.766.960.661.1%440.0x42.4x
Act2026-Q2814.9297.4292.9233.6263.9269.1-5.2302.8174.160.663.7%187.2x38.2x
Act2026-Q1733.8266.8261.7207.9198.5193.3-5.2177.2211.960.662.8%83.8x26.1x
Act2025-Q4759.2265.7261.4266.7130.4125.2-5.2149.7297.460.681.3%83.3x22.1x
Act2025-Q3664.2233.8226.9180.4123.6120.8-2.8151.0383.760.664.5%43.1x28.0x
Act2025-Q2599.9183.4178.8136.8152.4150.4-2.0133.1451.360.554.7%16.0x22.4x
Act2025-Q1550.3175.3169.2128.0233.7231.1-2.6165.2600.060.548.7%16.6x16.7x
Act2024-Q4507.5142.9138.4103.8231.4229.5-1.9126.3757.360.539.9%8.5x14.7x
Act2024-Q3493.0116.3111.276.3163.9160.6-3.2102.5927.060.528.9%6.2x17.4x
Act2024-Q2465.0125.6121.182.178.674.7-3.997.71,04960.528.7%6.9x17.4x
Act2024-Q1463.1133.4128.387.867.764.7-3.0108.61,10260.530.9%6.3x20.4x
Act2023-Q4491.1148.0143.9103.714.49.2-5.3114.91,13860.535.3%7.5x30.8x
Act2023-Q3457.8138.1133.598.6-162.2-164.4-2.2152.61,15160.534.2%8.4x32.8x
Act2023-Q2493.6149.1145.2112.2-39.7-44.5-4.8159.7956.260.545.3%13.2x41.2x
Act2023-Q1498.1125.7122.093.242.033.3-8.7136.9854.860.545.5%11.8x35.6x
Act2022-Q4443.1116.2112.692.570.067.6-2.4136.7853.360.547.1%14.5x38.4x
Act2022-Q3358.166.262.650.4104.299.6-4.6146.6785.561.427.3%20.4x--
Act2022-Q2431.6128.7125.4103.795.291.7-3.5214.4573.462.474.2%47.4x--
Act2022-Q1458.9164.9161.7132.2100.998.0-3.0267.0548.562.695.9%43.2x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $420.00

Ubiquiti is an exceptional business with outstanding unit economics — near-zero CapEx, 60%+ ROIC, and ~24% FCF margins generated by a lean 1,500-person organization disrupting enterprise networking. However, the stock at $749 trades at ~64x trailing FCF, embedding ~25% revenue CAGR for a decade with no margin for error. The implied growth rate is wildly above the 5-year average of 5.8% and assumes the current product cycle surge is permanent. Meanwhile, the company faces a potentially existential ITC investigation that could block Wi-Fi 6 product imports into the U.S. (54% of revenue), $110M+ in unreserved tax liabilities, and severe governance opacity under Robert Pera's 90%+ ownership. The 13.4% short interest and 5.2 days to cover reflect legitimate structural concerns. Even assuming continued strong execution and no adverse ITC outcome, the stock needs to grow into its valuation for several years, offering poor risk/reward at current levels.

Catalyst Adverse ITC ruling on Wi-Fi 6 products could trigger a 30-50% decline; resolution of IRS/Hong Kong tax audits could create sudden $50-110M liability recognition; growth deceleration as Wi-Fi 6/7 upgrade cycle peaks would deflate the premium multiple.
Risk The ITC investigation by Ax Wireless seeking a limited exclusion order on Wi-Fi 6 products could block Ubiquiti's primary revenue-generating products from the U.S. market, which represents 54% of total revenue. This is a binary, potentially catastrophic outcome.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
6/10
Quarter
9/10
Exp. Move
+8.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$583.86
Market Cap$35.3B
Enterprise Value$35.0B
P/S Ratio11.4x
P/FCF47.1x
EV/FCF46.7x
FCF Margin (TTM)24.2%
FCF Yield2.1%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$3.1B
Net Income$942.1M
Free Cash Flow$749.8M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+18.7%
EBITDA Margin36.2%
Net Margin30.4%
FCF Margin24.2%
CapEx % of Revenue0.7%
SBC % of Revenue0.2%
ROIC67.2%
WC Change % Rev-1.7%
Interest Coverage130.0x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$239.60
-59.0% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$14.2B
− Net Debt$-302M
= Fair Equity$14.5B
Revenue Growth7.9% → 6.0%
FCF Margin24.2% → 22.0%
Discount Rate15.0%
Terminal EV/FCF20.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float8.1%
Short Shares0.3M
Days to Cover3.2
Change (vs Prior)-11.1%
Short % Float History
8.10%-2.30pp
8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+10.9%
Forward FCF Margin26.4%
Forward EBITDA Margin36.5%
Forward P/FCF38.9x
Forward EV/FCF38.6x
Forward Int. Coverage121.5x
Model Risk Score7/10
Bankruptcy Odds3%
Est. Borrow Rate5.5%
Terminal EV/FCF20.0x
LT Growth6.0%
LT FCF Margin22.0%

Employees

Headcount1,515
Revenue / Employee$2,043,558
Gross Profit / Employee$940,495
2022: 1,377 → 2023: 1,535 → 2024: 1,515 → 2025: 1,667 (7% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

BALANCED

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 7.0% of float, sold 6.6%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+0.4% of float (net)
Bought 7.0% · Sold 6.6%
383 filers reported (last quarter: 348)

Ownership composition

Active
4.7%(+2.6% YoY)
363 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
1.1%(+0.6% YoY)
7 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
4 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
0.0%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$233M$249.99+$2.4M+$4.2M-0.2%$5.69T
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$173M$462.40−$3.1M+$9.6M+1.2%$63.91B
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP$145M$449.16+$79K+$74.2M+0.1%$184.72B
SW Investment Management LLC$113M$185.63+$2.0M−$117M-0.8%$451M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$98.8M$356.00+$25.0M−$78.6M-0.2%$218.19B
WEALTH ENHANCEMENT ADVISORY SERVICES, LLC$97.7M$536.96−$29.9M+$76.0M-0.0%$45.12B
Capital World Investors$85.0M$586.94+$6.0M+$68.7M+0.3%$732.46B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$67.5M$515.11+$7.0M+$9.6M-0.2%$2.89T
MORGAN STANLEY$61.6M$242.79−$19.0M+$6.9M-0.3%$1.65T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$60.8M$432.90+$13.3M+$34.1M-0.2%$760.93B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$59.6M$329.53+$1.9M+$6.6M+2.3%$1.61T
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$38.3M$136.92−$124K−$11.2M+0.5%$543.21B
Gotham Asset Management, LLC$36.1M$304.13−$993K+$7.9M+0.4%$32.62B
LONG WALK MANAGEMENT LP$35.8M$454.85−$30.7M+$35.8M+1.8%$344M
RHUMBLINE ADVISERS$34.1M$405.81+$89K+$30.5M+0.4%$116.90B
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO$31.7M$397.06+$14.4M+$19.7M-0.2%$1.47T
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$23.2M$301.40−$1.4M+$143K-0.2%$755.34B
CITIGROUP INC$21.0M$461.10−$994K+$20.5M-0.3%$156.55B
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP$20.1M$222.52−$10.3M−$7.4M-0.9%$139.72B
BARCLAYS PLC$19.6M$297.15+$11.6M+$14.2M-0.1%$279.69B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
+0.22%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.09%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.15%
173 buyers · $0.51B in
Sellers (this Q)
-2.70%
131 sellers · $0.02B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-2.2%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-3.4%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-10.1%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+4.6%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-44.3%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.0%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.7%
Holder rally (any stock)
-4.1%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

0300K600K900K1.2M$114$283$452$621$7902021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC219KARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP184KSW Investment Management LLC143KAQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC129KWEALTH ENHANCEMENT ADVISORY SERVICES, LLC118KCapital World Investors108KPacer Advisors, Inc.8KMORGAN STANLEY78KGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC77KLONG WALK MANAGEMENT LP45K

Related Stocks

Investors who own this also own

Stocks held by the same active managers as this one, ranked by score — how much more often these appear together than random chance (1× = baseline). Excludes index ETFs and market makers; minimum 3 shared holders.

TickerNameCo-holdersScore
PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.38.02×
METAMeta Platforms, Inc.31.76×
GOOGLAlphabet Inc.51.69×

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (1 analysts)$672.001510.0%
Last Year (4 analysts)$524.50-1020.0%
Current Price$583.86

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$5.6M
Incentive & Other$2.8M
Total Compensation$8.4M
% of Revenue0.1%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$542K
2 txns · 1 insider · 850 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-13SELLRadigan Kevinofficer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER500$680.53$340K$1.54M
2025-11-12SELLRadigan Kevinofficer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER350$576.58$202K$1.60M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

20.6%retail-0.6pp
25.0%dark+6.4pp
week of 2026-04-27
10%20%30%40%50%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q3)
Enterprise Technology$717.9M+23%
Service Provider Technology$70.3M-10%
By Geography (2026-Q3)
North America$410.2M+27%
UNITED STATES$374.1MNEW
EMEA$303.8M+8%
Asia Pacific$43.2M+15%
South America$31.1M+42%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Ubiquiti Inc.: Strong Cash Flows Masking High-Stakes Patent Litigation and Significant Unreserved Tax Liabilities

Overall Risk
5/10
Fraud
2/10
Dilution
2/10
Insolvency
2/10
Earnings Overstated
3/10
Hidden Liabilities
7/10
Legal
8/10
Audit Warnings
2/10
Hidden Upside
4/10
Contextually Acceptable
7/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

Ubiquiti reported a 'blowout' Q4 2025 earnings result on February 6, 2026, with revenue of $814.87M (up 35.8% YoY) and EPS of $3.88, significantly beating the $3.08 consensus. Following these results, the stock was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) in March 2026. The company also declared a $0.80 quarterly dividend, signaling confidence in sustained cash flow (Sources: Nasdaq, Perplexity, GuruFocus).

🐻 Bear Case

The primary bear thesis rests on an extreme valuation and transparency issues. UI trades at a P/E ratio of ~51.9x, which is significantly higher than its estimated DCF fair value of ~$198. Critics also point to 'low quality' earnings due to high non-cash components and a lack of granular segment reporting from CEO Robert Pera, who controls over 90% of the shares, leaving the public float vulnerable to volatility (Sources: Simply Wall St, Seeking Alpha).

🚩 Red Flags

Serious compliance concerns have emerged regarding the 'grey market' distribution of Ubiquiti products into sanctioned regions like Russia and Iran. Additionally, while margins are high (29.9% net margin), there are concerns about their sustainability given potential tariff-driven cost increases and a five-year average earnings growth (5.8%) that is far lower than the recent surge (Sources: Intellectia.AI, Seeking Alpha community).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Ubiquiti faces pressure from enterprise giants like Cisco and HPE/Aruba, particularly as they move toward more flexible software models. However, UI’s 'disruptive pricing' (e.g., UniFi Express at $149) and lack of recurring license fees continue to undercut traditional competitors, though the commoditization of Wi-Fi 7 hardware remains a long-term margin risk (Sources: McCann Tech, Seeking Alpha).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Customer sentiment remains highly positive among IT professionals and prosumers, driven by the successful rollout of the UniFi 7 (Wi-Fi 7) ecosystem. The community praises the hardware's 'versatility' and 'value for money,' specifically highlighting the Swiss Army Knife AP and the new gateway lineup as 'enterprise-grade' improvements that have repaired previous software reputation issues (Sources: McCann Tech, InsideWire YouTube).