Stocks/UBSI

UBSI

United Bankshares, Inc.
Financial Services·Banks - Regional
$43.41
$6.0B market cap
Claude Rating
6/10SLIGHT BUY
Revenue
$1.8B
Free Cash Flow
$28.0M
Rev Growth
+3.5%
FCF Margin
1.5%
P/FCF
213.8x
EV/FCF
44.9x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
2.0x
Fair Value
$42.00
Upside
-3.2%

United Bankshares, Inc., a financial holding company, primarily provides commercial and retail banking products and services in the United States. It operates through two segments, Community Banking and Mortgage Banking. The company accepts checking, savings, and time and money market accounts; individual retirement accounts; and demand deposits, statement and special savings, NOW accounts, and interest-bearing checking accounts. Its loan products include commercial loans and leases; constructio

2-Year Price History

$43.26+47.3%
$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q4495.0175.7--136.1--108.9-7.46,333----------
Est2027-Q3490.0171.5--132.3--117.6-6.46,224----------
Est2027-Q2485.0167.3--128.5--92.2-5.86,106----------
Est2027-Q1475.0159.1--121.1--99.8-6.26,014----------
Est2026-Q4478.0167.3--129.1--95.6-7.25,915----------
Est2026-Q3472.0162.8--125.1--118.0-6.15,819----------
Est2026-Q2465.0158.1--120.9--83.7-5.65,701----------
Est2026-Q1455.0150.2--116.0--100.1-6.85,617----------
Act2026-Q1447.5156.0156.0124.2160.9156.0-4.85,517792.3140.117.8%1.2x1.7x
Act2025-Q4461.0166.7166.7128.8-360.0-371.9-12.05,602921.2141.018.4%1.2x1.0x
Act2025-Q3474.9164.5164.5130.8150.6158.7-8.12,819796.3142.418.6%1.1x6.1x
Act2025-Q2452.1152.1152.1120.789.485.2-4.22,607808.7142.417.4%1.0x6.2x
Act2025-Q1432.6106.9106.984.3120.0116.1-3.92,864818.6142.712.2%0.7x7.0x
Act2024-Q4404.5121.1121.194.4136.3133.5-2.82,552803.3135.715.4%0.8x6.7x
Act2024-Q3413.6119.9119.995.3123.6122.0-1.65,147810.5135.515.5%0.8x0.1x
Act2024-Q2402.8115.4115.496.561.258.2-3.05,1731,783135.311.6%0.8x3.0x
Act2024-Q1399.8108.2108.286.8124.4119.6-4.85,3452,039135.19.7%0.7x4.0x
Act2023-Q4401.4104.2104.279.4162.6159.4-3.25,3842,078135.08.8%0.8x0.8x
Act2023-Q3388.9120.9120.996.289.687.8-1.84,9321,662134.912.5%0.9x1.7x
Act2023-Q2378.9115.9115.992.564.961.7-3.35,6972,450134.99.5%1.0x3.0x
Act2023-Q1359.7122.8122.898.3118.2114.7-3.56,3373,040134.88.8%1.3x4.2x
Act2022-Q4335.2126.4126.499.8137.1132.0-5.05,7182,434134.810.5%2.2x3.4x
Act2022-Q3294.0128.5128.5102.6133.8128.0-5.76,0031,519134.614.6%5.6x--
Act2022-Q2269.6119.1119.195.6206.4203.8-2.66,4701,005134.916.2%9.3x--
Act2022-Q1246.8101.8101.881.7283.6280.1-3.57,5631,035136.412.9%9.0x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
202235.3841.5%4763.4×2.2×12.9×4.3×
202334.24+33.5%30.3%4640.8×0.8×10.0×2.4×
202435.70+6.0%28.7%4656.7×7.2×13.1×3.0×
202538.03+12.3%32.4%5901.0×n/m11.3×2.9×
TTM43.41+11.0%34.8%6390.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E43.41+1.9%0.3%60.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2027E43.41+4.0%0.3%70.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude6/10SLIGHT BUYFV: $42.00

UBSI is a well-run regional bank with a 186-year track record, 52 consecutive years of dividend increases, and record 2025 earnings driven by the Piedmont acquisition and NIM expansion. The stock trades at ~12.4x earnings, slightly above peers, which is justified by its superior dividend track record, low-cost core deposit base, and Southeast expansion optionality. However, building credit stress in the CRE portfolio (nonaccruals tripled, OREO up 27x), fading acquisition-related fee accretion, and a competitive expansion into Atlanta/Charlotte/Raleigh limit near-term upside. The risk/reward is modestly positive at current levels—a solid income stock with 3.8% yield and mid-single-digit earnings growth—but not compelling enough for a high-conviction position given rising credit concerns and above-peer valuation.

Catalyst Rate cuts improving NIM and reversing $216M in unrealized AFS losses into equity; successful Piedmont integration driving Southeast market share gains; credit quality stabilizing as CRE concerns prove manageable.
Risk CRE credit deterioration accelerating beyond current provisions—the $8.3B nonowner-occupied CRE book with tripling nonaccruals could force material reserve builds that compress earnings 15-25%, particularly if commercial real estate values decline further in a recessionary scenario.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
7/10
Quarter
8/10
Exp. Move
+4.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$43.41
Market Cap$6.0B
Enterprise Value$1.3B
P/S Ratio3.3x
P/FCF213.8x
EV/FCF44.9x
FCF Margin (TTM)1.5%
FCF Yield0.5%
Dividend Yield (TTM)4.3%
Annual Dilution-1.8%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$1.8B
Net Income$504.5M
Free Cash Flow$28.0M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+3.5%
EBITDA Margin34.8%
Net Margin27.5%
FCF Margin1.5%
CapEx % of Revenue1.6%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC18.1%
WC Change % Rev6.0%
Interest Coverage1.1x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$64.22
+47.9% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$4.3B
− Net Debt$-4.7B
= Fair Equity$9.0B
Revenue Growth4.0% → 4.0%
FCF Margin1.5% → 22.0%
Discount Rate13.0%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float3.9%
Short Shares5.3M
Days to Cover6.9
Change (vs Prior)+7.1%
Short % Float History
3.90%+1.30pp
2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)--
Put IV (ATM)29%
ATM Spread--
Call $OI (near money)$314K
Put $OI (near money)$21K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$45.0
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$25.00$16.20/$20.400--/$2.150
$30.00$11.20/$15.400--/$2.150
$35.00$6.20/$10.300--/$2.150
$40.00$2.15/$5.500--/$2.650
$45.00--/$1.151$1.35/$4.200
$50.00--/$0.350$5.80/$8.700
$55.00--/$2.150$10.70/$13.600
$60.00--/$0.250$15.50/$19.100
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+1.9%
Forward FCF Margin21.3%
Forward EBITDA Margin34.1%
Forward P/FCF15.1x
Forward EV/FCF3.2x
Forward Int. Coverage1.2x
Model Risk Score5/10
Bankruptcy Odds1%
Est. Borrow Rate5.5%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x
LT Growth4.0%
LT FCF Margin22.0%

Employees

Headcount2,553
Revenue / Employee$718,969
Gross Profit / Employee$484,237
2022: 2,765 → 2023: 2,635 → 2024: 2,553 → 2025: 0

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 4.4% of float, sold 1.4%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+3.1% of float (net)
Bought 4.4% · Sold 1.4%
414 filers reported (last quarter: 396)

Ownership composition

Active
30.5%(+5.2% YoY)
396 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
39.2%(+6.5% YoY)
12 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.2%(-0.1% YoY)
5 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
1.9%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$835M$34.92+$3.6M−$15.2M-0.2%$5.69T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$333M$30.70+$1.0M−$7.7M-0.2%$2.89T
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$317M$32.47+$2.4M−$5.7M-0.4%$480.92B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$301M$41.42+$301M+$301M$1.91T
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$263M$41.42+$263M+$263M$4.04T
EARNEST PARTNERS LLC$171M$32.92−$4.4M−$3.3M-1.0%$24.25B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$163M$33.33+$5.8M+$19.1M+2.3%$1.61T
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC$129M$33.73−$7.4M−$19.0M-0.2%$156.12B
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$98.1M$36.62+$31.0M+$86.5M-0.2%$218.19B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$70.2M$32.21+$692K−$1.6M+0.7%$645.81B
SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC$68.6M$31.31−$8.1M−$25.9M-0.3%$13.84B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$68.3M$34.86+$2.4M−$3.5M-0.2%$755.34B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$67.6M$35.31+$11.5M+$18.1M-0.1%$1.36T
MORGAN STANLEY$66.6M$34.31+$8.5M+$35.6M-0.3%$1.65T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$65.0M$29.88+$16.3M+$38.4M-0.2%$760.93B
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$56.4M$34.44+$441K−$382K-0.2%$543.21B
FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.$55.0M$33.09−$2.0M−$7.1M-0.1%$29.55B
Fisher Asset Management, LLC$50.2M$29.23+$1.2M−$850K+0.1%$294.89B
BNP Paribas Asset Management Holding S.A.$40.8M$35.79+$2.6M+$10.4M-1.1%$85.48B
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$37.5M$41.42+$37.5M+$37.5M$395.83B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-0.23%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.23%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.20%
197 buyers · $0.98B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.22%
137 sellers · $0.07B out
alpha coverage: 85% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+15.1%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-10.7%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-14.5%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+1.0%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+1.0%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-2.2%
Holder mid (any stock)
-1.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-3.7%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

04.4M8.9M13.3M17.7M$25$29$33$37$412021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
EARNEST PARTNERS LLC4.1MGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC1.6MSILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC1.7MVICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC3.1MAQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC2.4MJANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC62KFULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.1.3MProShare Advisors LLC779KFIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP571KCHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC1.7M

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (1 analysts)$49.001290.0%
Last Year (4 analysts)$45.63510.0%
Current Price$43.41
Analyst Ratings
2
8
1
Buy: 2Hold: 8Sell: 1Consensus: Hold
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2025 Q3309M112M114M$0.81$0.81 – $0.824
2025 Q4316M115M120M$0.86$0.84 – $0.874
2026 Q1315M114M119M$0.85$0.84 – $0.864
2026 Q2320M116M124M$0.88$0.85 – $0.914
2026 Q3329M119M128M$0.92$0.89 – $0.944
2026 Q4333M121M131M$0.94$0.93 – $0.942
2027 Q1330M120M127M$0.90$0.90 – $0.912
2027 Q2336M122M131M$0.93$0.93 – $0.941
2027 Q3345M125M136M$0.97$0.96 – $0.981
2027 Q4348M127M139M$0.99$0.98 – $1.002

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$69.7M
Incentive & Other$34.9M
Total Compensation$104.5M
% of Revenue2.1%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$4K
12 txns · 2 insiders · 5,684 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-15BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector744$0.00$0$0
2026-04-01BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector512$0.00$0$0
2026-03-04BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector62$0.00$0$0
2026-02-25BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector710$0.00$0$0
2026-01-28BUYRice Lacy I IIIdirector101$41.59$4K$4K
2026-01-02BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector548$0.00$0$0
2025-11-24BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector882$0.00$0$0
2025-11-07BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector138$0.00$0$0
2025-10-08BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector536$0.00$0$0
2025-08-26BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector662$0.00$0$0
2025-08-06BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector278$0.00$0$0
2025-07-01BUYWINTER P CLINTONdirector511$0.00$0$0

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

18.3%retail+1.1pp
20.8%dark-0.8pp
week of 2026-04-13
5%10%15%20%25%30%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Deposit Account$9.6M+3%
Fiduciary and Trust$7.4M+31%
Service, Other$4.9M+2%
Mortgage Banking$2.6M+3%
Credit Card$2.0M+13%
Financial Service, Other$1.1M+2%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

United Bankshares: Routine Regional Banking Compliance with Minimal Forensic Signals

Overall Risk
2/10
Fraud
1/10
Dilution
1/10
Insolvency
2/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
2/10
Legal
1/10
Audit Warnings
1/10
Hidden Upside
1/10
Contextually Acceptable
10/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

United Bankshares reported record fiscal year 2025 earnings of $464.6 million ($3.27/share) and record Q4 earnings of $0.91/share, beating analyst estimates of $0.86. In February 2026, the company declared its Q1 2026 dividend of $0.38, marking 52 consecutive years of dividend increases—a feat matched by only one other major U.S. bank. Source: Business Wire, Investing.com (Jan/Feb 2026).

🐻 Bear Case

Bears argue the stock is overvalued with a P/E ratio of ~12.4x, slightly exceeding the industry average of 11.5x. There are also concerns regarding slowing organic growth (forecasted at 5-6% annually) and a measurable uptick in non-performing loans (NPLs), which rose from $73.4M in late 2024 to $116.9M by Q3 2025. Source: Simply Wall St, MarketBeat (Jan 2026).

🚩 Red Flags

The primary red flag is the deterioration in credit quality, specifically the volatility in non-performing assets throughout 2025. Additionally, the recent acquisition of Piedmont Bancorp has increased expense levels, which bears fear could compress margins if the expected Southeast expansion synergies do not materialize rapidly. Source: UBSI Earnings Report (Jan 2026).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

UBSI faces intense competition in its new growth markets (Atlanta, Charlotte, and Raleigh) from larger national banks and aggressive regional players. However, contrarians note that UBSI's 'Community Banking' model and stable 'core funding' from rural West Virginia provide a low-cost deposit base that competitors struggle to replicate. Source: News and Sentinel (March 2026).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment remains highly positive in its legacy Mid-Atlantic markets, where the bank has a 186-year history. CEO Richard Adams Jr. emphasizes a 'customer-centric' culture that has maintained high retention rates. Analysts currently hold a 'Moderate Buy' consensus, suggesting that the bank's regional brand loyalty is a moat against larger digital-first competitors. Source: Ticker Nerd, GuruFocus (March 2026).