TOI.V
Topicus.com Inc.Topicus.com Inc. provides vertical market software and vertical market platforms in Europe. The company acquires, builds, and manages various vertical market software businesses, which offer software solutions that address the particular needs of customers. It serves accountancy, agriculture, associations, automotive, central government, education, facility management, finance, healthcare, hospitality, legal, local government, manufacturing, mobility, real estate, and retail vertical markets. Th
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 570.0 | 176.7 | -- | 57.0 | -- | 119.7 | -2.9 | 1,223 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 505.0 | 151.5 | -- | 37.9 | -- | 55.6 | -2.5 | 1,103 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 495.0 | 138.6 | -- | 34.7 | -- | -9.9 | -4.0 | 1,047 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 480.0 | 136.8 | -- | 38.4 | -- | 312.0 | -3.8 | 1,057 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 500.0 | 152.5 | -- | 47.5 | -- | 100.0 | -2.5 | 745.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 440.0 | 129.8 | -- | 30.8 | -- | 44.0 | -2.2 | 645.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 430.0 | 118.3 | -- | 28.0 | -- | -12.9 | -3.9 | 601.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 415.0 | 116.2 | -- | 31.1 | -- | 282.2 | -3.3 | 614.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 435.6 | 123.7 | 67.7 | 34.2 | 277.2 | 268.2 | -3.2 | 331.9 | 547.1 | 129.8 | 26.8% | 13.9x | 15.7x |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 439.6 | 132.4 | 77.6 | 49.6 | 96.8 | 94.4 | -2.4 | 326.1 | 856.9 | 129.8 | 24.6% | 10.9x | 28.8x |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 381.7 | -45.6 | 58.5 | -77.0 | 46.8 | 35.1 | -1.7 | 524.8 | 837.7 | 83.3 | 17.6% | -5.0x | 33.3x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 372.0 | 106.7 | 54.3 | 25.9 | -14.9 | -18.7 | -3.8 | 249.3 | 579.9 | 129.8 | 19.4% | 11.3x | 28.3x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 355.6 | 98.8 | 53.8 | 24.7 | 271.5 | 268.4 | -2.9 | 296.3 | 393.0 | 129.8 | 27.8% | 18.4x | 26.0x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 364.9 | 118.1 | 71.2 | 33.6 | 79.6 | 77.7 | -1.9 | 206.2 | 351.8 | 129.8 | 48.8% | 20.5x | 28.3x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 312.2 | 96.0 | 56.7 | 23.3 | 31.7 | 28.3 | -2.0 | 234.6 | 413.5 | 129.8 | 36.7% | 14.8x | 17.8x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 311.2 | 81.5 | 39.8 | 17.0 | 8.8 | 7.1 | -1.8 | 233.8 | 399.3 | 129.8 | 27.4% | 13.0x | 19.2x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 306.6 | 80.8 | 41.7 | 18.1 | 227.5 | 218.8 | -2.7 | 254.6 | 392.3 | 129.8 | 29.0% | 17.1x | 14.9x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 309.7 | 90.7 | 52.0 | 25.3 | 62.4 | 59.6 | -2.5 | 179.1 | 287.8 | 129.8 | 40.7% | 19.1x | 14.6x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 278.8 | 82.0 | 41.9 | 18.0 | 25.5 | 24.1 | -1.4 | 161.7 | 298.0 | 129.8 | 29.4% | 16.8x | 19.2x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 272.1 | 71.5 | 35.8 | 14.6 | -15.4 | -17.3 | -1.9 | 172.3 | 323.3 | 129.8 | 24.0% | 17.9x | 18.2x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 264.4 | 70.5 | 33.6 | 21.1 | 174.0 | 172.0 | -2.0 | 197.3 | 254.6 | 129.8 | 26.6% | 18.3x | 14.5x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 263.7 | 70.3 | 33.6 | 28.7 | 48.1 | 45.6 | -2.5 | 136.8 | 329.3 | 129.8 | 30.1% | 14.4x | 14.7x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 228.6 | 62.3 | 26.8 | 18.4 | 10.9 | 9.7 | -1.2 | 135.8 | 355.2 | 129.8 | 19.1% | 20.4x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 220.6 | 58.1 | 27.4 | 20.1 | -32.0 | -33.6 | -1.6 | 159.7 | 343.6 | 129.8 | 21.1% | 26.7x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 203.8 | 59.6 | 29.6 | 20.4 | 176.0 | 174.0 | -2.0 | 217.0 | 281.9 | 129.8 | 26.1% | 23.7x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 70.16 | — | 27.3% | 250 | 23.2× | 29.7× | 64.2× | 6.1× |
| 2023 | 88.08 | +22.7% | 28.0% | 315 | 23.2× | 30.6× | 91.0× | 6.4× |
| 2024 | 121.54 | +15.1% | 29.1% | 376 | 45.3× | 51.4× | 183.8× | 13.1× |
| 2025 | 127.15 | +19.6% | 18.9% | 292 | 45.2× | 34.9× | 547.3× | 8.2× |
| TTM | 99.73 | +21.2% | 19.5% | 317 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 99.73 | +9.6% | 0.3% | 5 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 99.73 | +14.8% | 0.3% | 6 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Topicus is a well-run European VMS consolidator following the proven Constellation Software playbook, generating strong and growing FCF (~25% margins) with minimal capex requirements. The stock's 25% decline creates an interesting entry point at ~15x TTM FCF, which is cheap for a business with this quality of recurring revenue and switching costs. However, the low organic growth (3-4%), rising leverage from acquisitive strategy, and opacity around acquisition returns temper enthusiasm. The Q3 2025 Asseco write-down was non-operational but highlights capital allocation risk. At current prices, the market is pricing in ~8% revenue CAGR for a 10% return, which seems achievable but not a screaming bargain given execution risks. This is a decent business at a reasonable price — slight outperform territory but not a high-conviction buy given acquisition dependency and rising interest costs.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q4 2025, institutions are roughly balanced — bought 0.0% of float, sold 0.0%.
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McIlrath & Eck, LLC | $56K | $91.94 | +$78K | +$56K | -0.5% | $1.33B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 100.0%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 390M | 10M | 79M | $0.61 | $0.53 – $0.69 | 2 |
| 2025 Q4 | 439M | 11M | 91M | $0.70 | $0.67 – $0.73 | 2 |
| 2026 Q1 | 439M | 11M | 77M | $0.60 | $0.56 – $0.63 | 2 |
| 2026 Q2 | 439M | 11M | 104M | $0.80 | $0.58 – $1.02 | 2 |
| 2026 Q3 | 444M | 11M | 91M | $0.70 | $0.70 – $0.70 | 1 |
| 2026 Q4 | 486M | 12M | 102M | $0.79 | $0.78 – $0.79 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 472M | 12M | 96M | $0.74 | $0.74 – $0.74 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 506M | 13M | 113M | $0.87 | $0.86 – $0.87 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 516M | 13M | 106M | $0.82 | $0.81 – $0.82 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 558M | 14M | 118M | $0.91 | $0.90 – $0.91 | 1 |
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
Topicus.com reported a significant divergence in its FY2025 results: while revenue rose to €1,552.3 million (up from €1,294.9 million), net income plummeted to €41.76 million from €91.99 million. This earnings collapse was punctuated by a massive €221.7 million expense in Q3 2025 related to its investment in Asseco Poland S.A., leading to a quarterly net loss of €120.9 million (Simply Wall St, InvestingNews). Consequently, the stock has faced a 'horrid run,' dropping approximately 25% in early 2026, reaching price levels not seen in over a year.
The bear case centers on severe margin compression and a reliance on low-yield organic growth. Profit margins shriveled to 2.7% in 2025 from 7.1% the prior year. Skeptics argue the company is an 'acquisition treadmill' where organic growth remains stagnant at a mere 3-4%, forcing it to overpay for acquisitions to maintain top-line appearances. Furthermore, the massive write-downs/revaluations associated with the Asseco deal highlight the risks of its capital allocation strategy. With analysts at Royal Bank of Canada lowering expectations in February 2026, the narrative is shifting from a 'growth darling' to a struggling consolidator (MarketBeat, GuruFocus).
1. Valuation Disconnect: Despite falling profits, the stock has traded at a P/E ratio exceeding 350x, far above the software industry average of ~80x. 2. Earnings Quality: Sharp compression in net income despite rising revenue suggests rising operational costs or poor acquisition integration. 3. Debt Sensitivity: High absolute levels of liabilities (€1.3B total) create vulnerability if financing costs remain elevated or cash flow from new acquisitions fails to cover interest (Simply Wall St, Webull).
The primary threat is the 'AI Elephant in the room.' While VMS is traditionally 'sticky,' there is growing fear that AI-driven automation could lower the barrier to entry for new competitors to build niche vertical tools, eroding Topicus's moat. Additionally, the broader market is increasingly treating all software companies as vulnerable to AI disruption, leading to sector-wide sell-offs that Topicus has been unable to escape (Perplexity, Seeking Alpha).
While direct customer complaints are scarce due to the B2B nature of the business, investor sentiment has turned sharply negative, with 30-day returns reaching nearly -30% in early 2026. The high switching costs that protect Topicus are also a double-edged sword; they limit the company’s ability to aggressively raise prices without risking long-term churn in a budget-conscious European public sector (Simply Wall St, Reddit).