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Tredegar CorporationTredegar Corporation, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells aluminum extrusions, polyethylene (PE) films, and polyester films in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Aluminum Extrusions, PE Films, and Flexible Packaging Films. The Aluminum Extrusions segment produces soft-alloy and medium-strength custom fabricated and finished aluminum extrusions for the building and construction, automotive and transportation, consumer durables, machinery and eq
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 175.0 | 15.8 | -- | 8.8 | -- | 10.5 | -4.0 | 54.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 180.0 | 15.3 | -- | 8.1 | -- | 9.9 | -4.1 | 44.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 172.0 | 12.9 | -- | 6.0 | -- | 5.2 | -4.3 | 34.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 160.0 | 9.6 | -- | 3.2 | -- | -1.6 | -4.0 | 28.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 170.0 | 14.5 | -- | 6.8 | -- | 8.5 | -4.3 | 30.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 175.0 | 13.1 | -- | 6.1 | -- | 7.0 | -4.4 | 22.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 165.0 | 10.7 | -- | 4.1 | -- | 2.5 | -4.6 | 15.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 155.0 | 7.0 | -- | 1.6 | -- | -3.1 | -3.9 | 12.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 186.5 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.0 | -3.2 | -5.1 | 15.6 | 58.9 | 34.7 | 16.6% | 32.8x | 5.3x |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 184.1 | 23.3 | 12.1 | 14.6 | 15.7 | 7.7 | -8.0 | 6.7 | 48.3 | 34.7 | 32.0% | 53.3x | 6.1x |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 194.9 | 15.9 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 20.1 | 16.5 | -3.6 | 13.3 | 65.7 | 34.8 | 17.4% | 20.7x | 20.3x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 179.1 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 | -0.5 | -2.7 | 9.8 | 77.0 | 34.8 | 7.4% | 5.6x | 37.2x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 164.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 10.1 | -5.0 | -8.0 | -3.0 | 3.7 | 71.6 | 34.6 | 2.9% | 2.7x | 21.3x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 50.0 | -10.7 | -1.9 | -72.7 | 19.5 | 12.8 | -6.7 | 7.1 | 77.4 | 34.4 | -4.6% | -1.9x | 11.6x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 182.1 | 7.0 | 0.5 | -4.0 | -1.3 | -4.2 | -2.9 | 2.7 | 160.1 | 34.4 | 0.8% | 2.0x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 153.9 | 16.9 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 15.1 | 12.7 | -2.3 | 3.5 | 159.5 | 34.4 | 23.5% | 5.0x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 175.7 | 14.1 | 7.5 | 3.3 | -7.7 | -10.2 | -2.5 | 4.8 | 166.5 | 34.3 | 15.5% | 4.1x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 169.3 | -62.9 | -7.5 | -35.6 | -20.2 | -24.4 | -4.2 | 9.7 | 158.6 | 34.3 | -11.7% | -16.5x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 166.2 | -53.0 | 0.0 | -50.4 | 21.5 | 15.2 | -6.4 | 48.6 | 168.3 | 34.3 | 0.0% | -17.1x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 178.2 | -12.8 | -6.1 | -18.9 | 31.8 | 24.9 | -6.9 | 21.2 | 155.2 | 34.1 | -8.3% | -5.4x | 59.0x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 191.1 | 8.7 | 0.2 | -1.0 | -9.1 | -18.1 | -9.0 | 15.0 | 169.6 | 33.9 | 0.2% | 3.8x | 10.4x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 189.2 | 1.8 | -4.9 | -3.9 | 2.3 | -9.0 | -11.4 | 19.2 | 151.8 | 33.9 | -6.2% | 1.0x | 7.3x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 238.5 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | -13.7 | -25.7 | -12.0 | 19.3 | 139.2 | 33.9 | 5.0% | 8.7x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 274.4 | 28.0 | 20.5 | 14.9 | 45.3 | 36.9 | -8.4 | 27.5 | 115.7 | 33.9 | 32.5% | 22.7x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 236.6 | 24.5 | 18.3 | 16.4 | -54.7 | -59.8 | -5.1 | 25.7 | 145.7 | 33.7 | 32.6% | 31.1x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9.87 | — | 6.8% | 64 | 7.3× | n/m | 11.8× | 0.4× |
| 2023 | 5.41 | -24.9% | -17.0% | -120 | n/m | n/m | n/m | 0.3× |
| 2024 | 7.68 | -20.3% | 4.8% | 27 | 11.6× | 28.3× | n/m | 0.4× |
| 2025 | 7.18 | +28.7% | 7.2% | 52 | 6.1× | 20.1× | 8.2× | 0.4× |
| TTM | 7.81 | +35.2% | 8.2% | 61 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 7.81 | -10.7% | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 7.81 | +3.3% | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Tredegar is a low-quality industrial facing multiple simultaneous headwinds: Section 232 tariff disruption to its core aluminum extrusions business (orders down 20%), a major customer inventory correction in PE Films, untested new management, suspended dividends, heavy insider selling by the Gottwald family, and tightening ABL covenants that signal lender concern. While the Terphane divestiture reduced debt, the remaining business generates thin and volatile FCF margins (TTM ~2.2%) with limited pricing power. At $8.85/share, the stock trades at 0.43x revenue which looks cheap but is appropriate for a business with sub-6% FCF margins, cyclical exposure to nonresidential construction (53% of aluminum revenue), and no clear path to sustainable margin expansion. The 7.2% dividend yield shown is misleading as the dividend has been suspended. This is a value trap with deteriorating fundamentals and no near-term catalyst for re-rating.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | $4.80/$6.00 | 0 | --/$0.75 | 0 |
| $5.00 | $2.40/$3.50 | 0 | --/$0.75 | 0 |
| $7.50 | $0.65/$1.15 | 9 | $0.35/$0.50 | 0 |
| $10.00 | --/$0.20 | 0 | $1.75/$3.70 | 0 |
| $12.50 | --/$0.75 | 0 | $4.10/$5.20 | 0 |
| $15.00 | --/$0.75 | 0 | $6.40/$7.90 | 0 |
| $17.50 | --/$0.75 | 0 | $8.90/$10.40 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 6.9% of float, sold 2.5%.
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. ET AL | $48.5M | $7.24 | −$1.6M | +$2.5M | -0.0% | $10.15B |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $22.9M | $7.71 | −$11K | +$77K | -0.1% | $1.36T |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $18.0M | $7.29 | +$74K | −$1.8M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| Minerva Advisors LLC | $13.2M | $6.67 | +$68K | +$68K | -1.7% | $155M |
| GABELLI FUNDS LLC | $9.8M | $6.93 | +$183K | +$1.1M | -0.2% | $14.68B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $9.4M | $7.95 | +$9.4M | +$9.4M | — | $4.04T |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $9.0M | $8.55 | +$409K | +$577K | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $5.2M | $8.95 | +$376K | +$493K | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $5.2M | $7.84 | +$52K | +$484K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $3.9M | $7.87 | −$836K | +$2.2M | +0.7% | $645.81B |
| ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $2.5M | $7.28 | +$1.7M | +$1.9M | -0.5% | $70.48B |
| LONDON CO OF VIRGINIA | $2.2M | $7.75 | −$55K | −$269K | +0.6% | $16.23B |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | $2.1M | $7.42 | −$28K | +$903K | +0.1% | $184.72B |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.8M | $6.60 | +$279K | +$1.3M | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $1.7M | $6.99 | +$83K | −$73K | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| LOS ANGELES CAPITAL MANAGEMENT & EQUITY RESEARCH INC | $1.7M | $8.35 | +$1.4M | +$1.7M | -0.0% | $25.38B |
| MARSHALL WACE, LLP | $1.6M | $7.04 | −$16K | +$1.6M | +0.6% | $92.71B |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $1.6M | $7.38 | +$387K | +$484K | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $1.5M | $7.95 | +$1.5M | +$1.5M | — | $395.83B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $1.4M | $6.97 | −$46K | +$132K | -0.3% | $1.65T |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 58.7%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Q1 | 503M | 44M | 16M | $1.43 | $1.43 – $1.43 | 12 |
| 2022 Q2 | 580M | 27M | 7M | $1.15 | $1.15 – $1.15 | 9 |
| 2022 Q3 | 531M | 47M | 31M | $1.27 | $1.27 – $1.27 | 9 |
| 2022 Q4 | 648M | 26M | 4M | $1.95 | $1.95 – $1.95 | 12 |
| 2023 Q1 | 553M | 48M | 18M | $1.43 | $1.43 – $1.43 | 8 |
| 2023 Q2 | 638M | 29M | 7M | $1.19 | $1.19 – $1.19 | 15 |
| 2023 Q3 | 584M | 51M | 34M | $1.39 | $1.39 – $1.39 | 9 |
| 2023 Q4 | 712M | 28M | 4M | $2.09 | $2.09 – $2.09 | 1 |
| 2024 Q1 | 608M | 53M | 20M | $1.58 | $1.58 – $1.58 | 1 |
| 2025 Q3 | 195M | 1M | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 0 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | BUY | DasGupta Arijit | director, officer: See Remarks | 1,000 | $7.55 | $8K | $1.04M |
| 2026-05-18 | SELL | Tack Carl E. III | director | 5,435 | $7.81 | $42K | $573K |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | GOTTWALD JOHN D | 10 percent owner | 7,383 | $8.01 | $59K | $3.86M |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | Gottwald James T. | 10 percent owner | 7,384 | $8.01 | $59K | $3.86M |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | 10 percent owner | 7,384 | $8.01 | $59K | $3.86M |
| 2026-05-14 | SELL | GOTTWALD JOHN D | 10 percent owner | 4,551 | $8.34 | $38K | $4.09M |
| 2026-05-14 | SELL | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | 10 percent owner | 4,550 | $8.34 | $38K | $4.09M |
| 2026-05-14 | SELL | Gottwald James T. | 10 percent owner | 4,550 | $8.34 | $38K | $4.09M |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | GOTTWALD JOHN D | 10 percent owner | 4,865 | $8.30 | $40K | $4.11M |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | 10 percent owner | 4,866 | $8.30 | $40K | $4.11M |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | Gottwald James T. | 10 percent owner | 4,866 | $8.30 | $40K | $4.11M |
| 2026-05-12 | SELL | GOTTWALD JOHN D | 10 percent owner | 25,356 | $8.62 | $218K | $4.30M |
| 2026-05-12 | SELL | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | 10 percent owner | 25,355 | $8.62 | $218K | $4.30M |
| 2026-05-12 | SELL | Gottwald James T. | 10 percent owner | 25,355 | $8.62 | $218K | $4.30M |
| 2026-02-27 | SELL | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | 10 percent owner | 4,815 | $9.02 | $43K | $4.73M |
| 2026-02-27 | SELL | Gottwald James T. | 10 percent owner | 4,815 | $9.02 | $43K | $4.73M |
| 2026-02-27 | SELL | GOTTWALD JOHN D | 10 percent owner | 4,814 | $9.02 | $43K | $4.73M |
| 2026-02-26 | SELL | GOTTWALD JOHN D | 10 percent owner | 12,008 | $8.99 | $108K | $4.76M |
| 2026-02-26 | SELL | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | 10 percent owner | 12,007 | $8.99 | $108K | $4.76M |
| 2026-02-26 | SELL | Gottwald James T. | 10 percent owner | 12,008 | $8.99 | $108K | $4.76M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Exports From United States | $5.5M | -49% |
| UNITED STATES | $171.1M | +29% |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Tredegar Corporation: Inventory Bloat and ABL Reliance Dampen Cash Conversion
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
Tredegar’s Q4 2025 results (released March 11, 2026) revealed a softening outlook for its High Performance Films segment, with management warning of further volume declines in Q1 2026 due to a 'major customer’s inventory correction' and scheduled maintenance. While the company reported a net income of $14.5M for the quarter, the broader narrative is one of leadership turnover; both CEO John M. Steitz and CFO D. Andrew Edwards announced their retirements in late 2025, leaving the company under new, unproven leadership (CEO Arijit DasGupta) during a period of intense macro volatility (Source: TradingView, Business Wire).
The core bear case centers on a structural decline in demand following the Section 232 tariff hike on aluminum imports to 50% in June 2025. This move triggered a 20% collapse in weekly new orders for the Bonnell Aluminum segment, dropping from 3.4 million lbs to 2.7 million lbs. Skeptics argue that Tredegar lacks the pricing power to fully pass these costs to customers without permanently losing volume. Additionally, the overwrap film business saw an 11% YoY decline in Q3 2025, signaling that consumer spending is pivoting away from the discretionary goods that drive Tredegar's high-margin segments (Source: Seeking Alpha, Stock Titan).
A massive wave of insider selling is the primary red flag: throughout late 2025 and early 2026, major shareholders from the Gottwald family (John, William, and James) unloaded millions of dollars' worth of stock, including significant sales in January and February 2026 at prices around $8.52. Furthermore, the dividend has been suspended for over two years with no clear timeline for reinstatement, indicating that despite debt reduction, the company is prioritizing survival over shareholder returns (Source: Investing.com, MarketBeat).
Tredegar faces dual-threat competition: in the aluminum segment, high tariffs are driving customers to evaluate alternative materials like steel or plastic, particularly in the automotive sector where shifts toward hybrids are changing material requirements. In the film segment, the company is vulnerable to cyclicality in the global electronics display industry and the ongoing 'fluid' situation regarding tariffs on consumer electronics, which could favor cheaper international competitors who are not subject to the same US-centric cost pressures (Source: Kavout, Seeking Alpha).
Sentiment among key customers is decidedly cautious; management explicitly noted that customers began 'pausing orders' in late 2025 to evaluate the permanency of new tariffs. The reduction in the order backlog—from 25 million lbs in Q2 to 19 million lbs by Q3 2025—suggests that customers are working through existing inventory rather than placing new bets on Tredegar’s production. There is also specific concern regarding 'overwrap films' as consumers prioritize staples, leading to decreased demand from consumer-packaged goods (CPG) clients (Source: Seeking Alpha, Tredegar IR).