TFSL
TFS Financial CorporationTFS Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides retail consumer banking services in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, money market, checking, individual retirement, and other qualified plan accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company also provides residential real estate mortgage loans, residential construction loans, and home equity loans and lines of credit, as well as purchase mortgages and first mortgage refinance loans. In addition, it offe
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2028-Q1 | 218.0 | 33.8 | -- | 26.2 | -- | 48.0 | -1.5 | 191.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 216.0 | 34.6 | -- | 24.8 | -- | -6.5 | -1.9 | 143.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 213.0 | 32.0 | -- | 23.4 | -- | 29.8 | -1.7 | 149.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 214.0 | 33.2 | -- | 24.6 | -- | 21.4 | -1.7 | 119.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 212.0 | 31.8 | -- | 24.4 | -- | 42.4 | -1.5 | 98.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 210.0 | 32.6 | -- | 23.1 | -- | -10.5 | -1.9 | 55.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 205.0 | 29.7 | -- | 21.5 | -- | 24.6 | -1.6 | 66.4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 208.0 | 31.2 | -- | 22.9 | -- | 16.6 | -1.7 | 41.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q2 | 202.9 | 29.8 | 29.8 | 23.3 | 17.6 | 13.4 | -4.3 | 25.1 | 5,128 | 279.9 | 1.6% | 0.3x | 69.2x |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 205.8 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 22.3 | 58.8 | 57.1 | -1.7 | 481.2 | 4,940 | 283.3 | 1.6% | 0.2x | 61.2x |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 207.2 | 38.7 | 32.4 | 26.0 | -11.1 | -13.3 | -2.1 | 483.5 | 4,901 | 279.8 | 1.9% | 0.3x | 58.5x |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 198.5 | 33.3 | 27.4 | 21.5 | 26.8 | 25.0 | -1.7 | 502.8 | 4,913 | 279.7 | 1.6% | 0.3x | 62.0x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 193.0 | 32.1 | 26.5 | 21.0 | 21.2 | 14.3 | -7.0 | 513.9 | 4,615 | 279.7 | 1.6% | 0.3x | 61.0x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 193.3 | 33.7 | 28.4 | 22.4 | 45.6 | 44.9 | -0.6 | 973.6 | 4,696 | 279.6 | 1.7% | 0.3x | 59.1x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 194.9 | 28.0 | 23.1 | 18.2 | -58.7 | -59.4 | -0.7 | 990.0 | 4,822 | 279.4 | 1.4% | 0.2x | 61.2x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 191.2 | 30.2 | 25.2 | 20.0 | 96.7 | 95.9 | -0.8 | 1,083 | 4,846 | 279.2 | 1.5% | 0.3x | 60.3x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 189.2 | 30.4 | 25.9 | 20.7 | 14.2 | 13.4 | -0.8 | 1,115 | 4,981 | 279.1 | 1.5% | 0.3x | 68.5x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 183.5 | 30.7 | 26.1 | 20.7 | 36.3 | 35.6 | -0.7 | 1,077 | 5,060 | 279.0 | 1.5% | 0.3x | 65.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 173.8 | 28.2 | 23.5 | 19.6 | 13.8 | 12.8 | -1.1 | 975.1 | 5,303 | 278.8 | 1.3% | 0.3x | 70.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 162.5 | 26.4 | 21.8 | 17.6 | 33.8 | 32.2 | -1.6 | 949.5 | 5,469 | 278.6 | 1.1% | 0.3x | 66.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 152.9 | 24.6 | 20.0 | 15.9 | -35.7 | -36.2 | -0.5 | 903.7 | 5,232 | 278.5 | 1.1% | 0.3x | 68.2x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 144.1 | 32.3 | 28.1 | 22.2 | 78.8 | 76.9 | -2.0 | 916.7 | 5,016 | 278.5 | 1.6% | 0.5x | 62.4x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 125.4 | 37.4 | 31.2 | 25.4 | -12.2 | -13.4 | -1.2 | 827.5 | 4,823 | 278.5 | 1.9% | 0.8x | 65.5x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 108.5 | 27.9 | 21.2 | 17.2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | -0.8 | 837.4 | 4,265 | 278.6 | 1.4% | 0.9x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 99.1 | 26.3 | 19.4 | 15.9 | 33.0 | 32.6 | -0.4 | 813.9 | 3,588 | 278.8 | 1.5% | 0.9x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 100.2 | 27.5 | 20.3 | 16.1 | 7.7 | 7.4 | -0.3 | 831.9 | 3,216 | 278.9 | 1.7% | 0.8x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10.91 | — | 27.5% | 119 | 64.0× | 210.5× | 48.7× | 8.4× |
| 2023 | 12.12 | +46.2% | 17.6% | 111 | 67.5× | 87.9× | 42.5× | 5.0× |
| 2024 | 11.30 | +19.8% | 15.7% | 119 | 61.5× | 85.8× | 44.0× | 4.6× |
| 2025 | 13.11 | +4.4% | 17.4% | 138 | 58.6× | 113.8× | 40.2× | 4.6× |
| TTM | 15.91 | +5.4% | 16.0% | 130 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 15.91 | +5.0% | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
TFSL is a structurally disadvantaged equity position for public shareholders. The 81% MHC ownership effectively prevents any activist intervention, takeover premium, or meaningful capital return beyond the current dividend. While the ~8% dividend yield (subsidized by MHC waivers) provides income, the stock trades at ~44x earnings for a thrift generating 1.6% ROIC with stagnant EPS, razor-thin NIM, and $5.6B in unfunded HELOC commitments. Insider selling, a massive CEO retention grant, and a thin credit loss allowance (0.47%) all suggest the risk-reward is skewed negatively. The market cap of $3.8B on a business earning ~$90M annually is extremely generous for a regional thrift with no growth levers. Fair value is significantly below the current price when properly discounting for the MHC governance trap and lack of earnings growth.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.50 | $7.60/$9.90 | 0 | --/$0.75 | 0 |
| $10.00 | $5.10/$7.40 | 100 | --/$0.05 | 0 |
| $12.50 | $2.70/$5.00 | 161 | --/$0.10 | 15 |
| $15.00 | $0.95/$1.30 | 409 | --/$0.50 | 14 |
| $17.50 | $0.05/$0.10 | 56 | $0.60/$2.35 | 0 |
| $20.00 | --/$0.75 | 104 | $3.70/$5.10 | 0 |
| $22.50 | --/$0.75 | 0 | $6.20/$7.70 | 0 |
| $25.00 | --/$0.75 | 0 | $8.70/$10.20 | 1 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 1.4% of float, sold 0.2%.
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $52.7M | $11.64 | −$3.9M | +$8.8M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $43.3M | $11.12 | +$2.1M | +$6.5M | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| LAKEWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP | $39.8M | $12.25 | +$1.2M | +$33.5M | +2.9% | $1.56B |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $35.8M | $11.54 | −$1.5M | −$8.6M | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $33.2M | $12.48 | +$5.6M | +$15.1M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $33.1M | $14.05 | +$33.1M | +$33.1M | — | $4.04T |
| MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. | $32.5M | $12.20 | −$791K | +$19.0M | +1.7% | $73.71B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $32.1M | $14.05 | +$32.1M | +$32.1M | — | $1.91T |
| Bank of New York Mellon Corp | $26.3M | $12.16 | −$10K | +$5.3M | -0.2% | $543.21B |
| CRAMER ROSENTHAL MCGLYNN LLC | $16.5M | $10.55 | +$41K | −$3.0M | +0.9% | $1.36B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $16.5M | $11.15 | +$434K | +$595K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $14.2M | $11.88 | +$3.0M | +$4.9M | -0.1% | $1.36T |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $11.2M | $11.29 | +$1.2M | +$6.9M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| Gator Capital Management, LLC | $9.7M | $13.41 | +$3.1M | +$9.7M | +2.2% | $469M |
| UBS Group AG | $9.6M | $12.38 | +$2.6M | +$7.2M | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| Squarepoint Ops LLC | $6.3M | $12.96 | +$3.3M | +$5.6M | +0.4% | $46.27B |
| Quantinno Capital Management LP | $5.7M | $12.93 | +$2.0M | +$4.9M | -0.4% | $59.83B |
| Beverly Hills Private Wealth, LLC | $4.6M | $13.21 | +$493K | +$4.6M | -0.8% | $582M |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $4.5M | $14.05 | +$4.5M | +$4.5M | — | $395.83B |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $4.5M | $12.81 | +$895K | +$4.2M | -0.9% | $117.03B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 38.4%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q2 | 81M | 18M | 22M | $0.08 | $0.08 – $0.08 | 1 |
| 2025 Q3 | 84M | 18M | 22M | $0.08 | $0.08 – $0.08 | 1 |
| 2025 Q4 | 86M | 19M | 25M | $0.09 | $0.09 – $0.09 | 1 |
| 2026 Q1 | 85M | 18M | 22M | $0.08 | $0.08 – $0.08 | 1 |
| 2026 Q2 | 87M | 19M | 22M | $0.08 | $0.08 – $0.08 | 1 |
| 2026 Q3 | 89M | 19M | 25M | $0.09 | $0.09 – $0.09 | 1 |
| 2026 Q4 | 90M | 20M | 25M | $0.09 | $0.09 – $0.09 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 92M | 20M | 27M | $0.10 | $0.09 – $0.10 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 93M | 20M | 27M | $0.10 | $0.09 – $0.10 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 94M | 20M | 27M | $0.10 | $0.09 – $0.10 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2012-2014)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | SELL | Zbanek Cathy W | officer: Chief Synergy Officer | 10,000 | $15.26 | $153K | $932K |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | Weir Daniel F | director | 7,000 | $15.02 | $105K | $645K |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | Weir Daniel F | director | 21,000 | $14.91 | $313K | $761K |
| 2026-05-11 | SELL | WEIL MEREDITH S | director, officer: Chief Financial Officer | 13,756 | $14.91 | $205K | $574K |
| 2026-05-06 | SELL | Rubino Andrew J | officer: Chief Operating Officer | 6,600 | $15.18 | $100K | $323K |
| 2026-03-12 | BUY | Asher Anthony J | director | 5,000 | $13.37 | $67K | $659K |
| 2026-02-20 | SELL | Stefanski Gavin B | officer: Chief Experience Officer | 7,000 | $14.97 | $105K | $386K |
| 2026-02-17 | SELL | Stefanski Marc A | director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO | 36,844 | $15.12 | $557K | $1.09M |
| 2026-02-13 | SELL | Stefanski Marc A | director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO | 1,000 | $15.00 | $15K | $1.63M |
| 2026-02-12 | SELL | Stefanski Marc A | director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO | 7,149 | $15.03 | $107K | $1.65M |
| 2026-02-11 | SELL | WEIL MEREDITH S | director, officer: Chief Financial Officer | 15,000 | $14.95 | $224K | $781K |
| 2026-02-11 | SELL | Stefanski Marc A | director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO | 7 | $15.00 | $105 | $1.65M |
| 2026-02-03 | SELL | Anderson Barbara J. | director | 11,000 | $14.21 | $156K | $88K |
| 2025-12-15 | BUY | Asher Anthony J | director | 1,439 | $13.89 | $20K | $543K |
| 2025-12-12 | SELL | Williams Ashley H | director | 7,600 | $13.66 | $104K | $226K |
| 2025-12-03 | SELL | Zbanek Cathy W | officer: Chief Synergy Officer | 20,000 | $14.13 | $283K | $752K |
| 2025-11-24 | SELL | Rubino Andrew J | officer: Chief Operating Officer | 5,000 | $14.23 | $71K | $272K |
| 2025-11-12 | SELL | WEIL MEREDITH S | director, officer: Chief Financial Officer | 15,000 | $13.85 | $208K | $672K |
| 2025-09-11 | SELL | Weir Daniel F | director | 3,900 | $13.37 | $52K | $200K |
| 2025-09-02 | SELL | WEIL MEREDITH S | director, officer: Chief Financial Officer | 15,000 | $13.70 | $206K | $870K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Banking | $2.5M | +13% |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
TFS Financial Corporation: Temporal Anomalies and Information Vacuum
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
TFS Financial (TFSL) recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2825 per share, maintaining an attractive ~8% yield. In its Q1 2026 report (period ended Dec 31, 2025), the company reported a 10.83% year-over-year increase in Net Interest Income to $75.7 million. CEO Marc Stefanski highlighted that the bank is successfully adapting to recent Fed rate cuts, with asset quality remaining 'pristine' and Tier 1 capital ratios at a strong 10.75%. (Sources: Business Wire, Feb 2026; Investing.com, Feb 2026).
The core bear thesis relies on a high P/E ratio (approx. 44x) which appears significantly overvalued compared to the industry average of ~11.5x. Bears argue that stagnant EPS growth (2% over five years) and a low Net Interest Margin (NIM) of ~1.79% indicate a lack of profitability in the loan book. Furthermore, a recent earnings miss in Jan 2026 ($0.08 vs $0.09 expected) suggests the bank struggles to meet Wall Street's already conservative growth expectations. (Sources: Simply Wall St, March 2026; Finviz, March 2026).
A notable red flag is recent insider activity; the Chairman sold approximately $572k worth of stock in February 2026, following another $411k sale in December 2025. Additionally, the bank’s high reliance on Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) makes it uniquely sensitive to interest rate volatility, as seen in the 2.07% NII decrease between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 following rate cuts. (Sources: Simply Wall St, Feb 2026; Business Wire, Jan 2026).
TFSL faces intense competition for savings customers, which exerts pressure on its cost of funds and further narrows margins. Unlike larger commercial peers, TFSL's specialized focus on retail mortgage lending and the Cleveland/Florida markets limits its ability to diversify revenue, leaving it vulnerable to regional housing market downturns or aggressive rate pricing from fintech competitors. (Source: MarketBeat, March 2026; CEO Quarterly Remarks, Jan 2026).
Customer sentiment remains a major hidden strength; USA TODAY named Third Federal (TFSL's subsidiary) one of the top 500 financial services companies in the U.S. for customer service in 2026, citing reliability and professional competence. Moreover, the 81% ownership by a Mutual Holding Company (MHC) creates a stable 'member' environment where depositors frequently vote in favor of dividend waivers, effectively subsidizing the high yield for minority shareholders. (Source: USA TODAY/Business Wire, Feb 2026).