Stocks/TCX

TCX

Tucows Inc.
Technology·Software - Infrastructure
$15.16
$169M market cap
Claude Rating
4/10UNDERWEIGHT
Revenue
$392.4M
Free Cash Flow
$-8.4M
Rev Growth
+2.2%
FCF Margin
-2.1%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
11.4x
Fair Value
$13.50
Upside
-10.9%

Tucows Inc. provides network access, domain name registration, email, mobile telephony, and other Internet services in Canada, the United States, and Europe. It operates through three segments: Fiber Internet Services, Mobile Services, and Domain Services. The Fiber Internet Services segment provides fixed high-speed Internet access services to individuals and small businesses primarily through the Ting website, and other billing solutions to small internet service providers. The Mobile Services

2-Year Price History

$15.02-29.4%
$16$18$20$22$24volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q488.020.7--2.2--10.6-2.2108.3----------
Est2027-Q386.519.9--1.3--9.5-2.297.7----------
Est2027-Q285.019.1--0.4--8.9-2.188.2----------
Est2027-Q183.017.8---1.3--7.5-2.179.3----------
Est2026-Q485.018.7---1.7--8.5-2.171.8----------
Est2026-Q388.017.6---4.4--7.0-2.663.3----------
Est2026-Q2102.018.4---15.3--4.6-3.956.3----------
Est2026-Q1100.517.1---18.1--2.0-4.051.7----------
Act2026-Q196.754.7-2.2-18.13.5-2.0-5.549.7695.511.1-1.3%3.9x7.8x
Act2025-Q498.735.624.1-22.0-2.6-7.0-4.446.8681.711.114.2%--12.8x
Act2025-Q398.64.7-9.6-23.01.5-2.3-3.954.1534.211.1-7.2%0.3x38.8x
Act2025-Q298.512.4-2.9-15.66.62.9-3.752.0521.711.1-2.2%0.9x36.4x
Act2025-Q194.612.8-2.0-15.1-11.3-16.7-5.438.1515.411.0-1.6%0.9x51.5x
Act2024-Q493.1-11.8-29.9-42.5-4.8-16.5-11.756.9513.111.0-23.3%-0.8x--
Act2024-Q392.34.6-10.1-22.3-4.6-19.1-14.575.2512.411.0-7.8%0.3x10.8x
Act2024-Q289.47.2-8.6-18.6-4.7-20.7-16.039.3448.011.0-7.7%0.6x10.9x
Act2024-Q187.5-0.2-16.5-26.5-5.7-20.1-14.466.6453.210.9-14.6%-0.0x18.1x
Act2023-Q487.049.8-15.3-23.49.0-5.7-14.796.3568.310.9-9.8%--19.4x
Act2023-Q387.0-1.0-17.2-22.8-6.9-29.5-22.6110.7465.910.9-14.0%-0.1x--
Act2023-Q285.0-11.9-13.1-31.0-1.6-25.0-23.4147.9468.510.8-8.6%-1.1x--
Act2023-Q180.4-1.5-17.3-19.1-5.3-37.2-31.911.8254.710.8-24.4%-0.2x37.5x
Act2022-Q478.92.4-13.0-13.52.9-34.5-37.423.5256.010.8-17.5%0.4x24.7x
Act2022-Q378.15.5-9.4-8.0-1.0-47.7-46.730.5256.310.8-11.8%1.3x--
Act2022-Q283.19.6-4.4-3.112.6-17.7-30.36.5243.310.8-6.4%4.0x--
Act2022-Q181.18.7-4.9-3.048.625.5-23.16.2222.910.8-7.5%4.9x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
202233.928.2%2624.7×n/mn/m1.3×
202327.00+5.7%10.5%3619.4×n/mn/m0.6×
202417.14+6.8%-0.0%-0n/mn/mn/m0.6×
202522.42+7.7%16.8%6512.8×n/mn/m0.5×
TTM15.16+6.2%27.3%1070.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E15.16-4.3%0.2%10.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2027E15.16-8.8%0.2%10.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude4/10UNDERWEIGHTFV: $13.50

Tucows is a deeply levered, complex transformation story trading at 0.45x P/S with a -$108M stockholders' deficit. The investment case rests almost entirely on the Ting divestiture proceeding at terms that cover or nearly cover Ting-level debt (~$300M securitized notes), leaving the remaining Domains + Wavelo businesses as a capital-light, positive FCF entity. Domains is a solid but low-growth cash cow, while Wavelo has high gross margins but faces customer concentration risk and potential revenue loss post-Ting sale. The current equity market cap of $176M is essentially an option on the divestiture outcome and the ability to deleverage. While EBITDA is improving dramatically (45% YoY growth), interest expense consumes nearly all of it, and the $135M preferred unit redemption in 2028 creates a looming liquidity wall. The CEO transition adds governance uncertainty. At current prices there is upside if the divestiture goes well, but the downside scenario (failed sale, forced dilution, or restructuring) is very real. Better risk/reward exists elsewhere.

Catalyst Completion of Ting fiber asset divestiture at proceeds sufficient to retire securitized debt, instantly transforming the balance sheet and unlocking FCF for the remaining capital-light businesses.
Risk Ting divestiture fails or nets insufficient proceeds to cover asset-level debt, leaving Tucows trapped with $300M+ in securitized obligations, negative equity, and the $135M preferred unit redemption due in 2028 — potentially forcing severe dilution or restructuring.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
5/10
Quarter
7/10
Exp. Move
+3.0%

Latest Earnings Call

Transcript Summary

The Tucows Q4 2025 Q&A session focused on three critical areas: the Ting divestiture, Wavelo’s financial outlook, and capital management. CEO David Woroch confirmed that the sale of Ting assets remains on track and unaffected by recent market volatility, though the process requires intensive due diligence. On the operational front, Wavelo’s adjusted EBITDA margin for 2026 is expected to contract due to the potential reduction in service fees from Ting customers post-divestiture and the annualization of 2025 growth investments. Management is taking a conservative stance on these projections while maintaining a competitive cost advantage over rivals. Regarding liquidity, the company holds $20.9 million in unrestricted cash and is prioritizing the paydown of syndicated debt to enhance borrowing capacity. While a stock buyback program was renewed, management emphasized it is a discretionary tool rather than a firm commitment. The primary strategic goal remains the completion of the Ting sale to improve free cash flow and enable a more robust capital allocation framework. Investors remain cautious, but the company is committed to deleveraging and transitioning toward its core software and domain businesses to drive long-term value.

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$15.16
Market Cap$169M
Enterprise Value$815M
P/S Ratio0.4x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-2.1%
FCF Yield-5.0%
Dividend Yield (TTM)0.4%
Annual Dilution0.8%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$392.4M
Net Income$-78.8M
Free Cash Flow$-8.4M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+2.2%
EBITDA Margin27.3%
Net Margin-20.1%
FCF Margin-2.1%
CapEx % of Revenue4.4%
SBC % of Revenue1.7%
ROIC0.9%
WC Change % Rev-1.4%
Interest Coverage7.6x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$1.95
-87.1% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$217M
− Net Debt$646M
= Fair Equity$22M
Revenue Growth-8.8% → 3.0%
FCF Margin-2.1% → 12.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float6.5%
Short Shares0.6M
Days to Cover25.6
Change (vs Prior)+1.4%
Short % Float History
6.50%-3.20pp
6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)82%
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread17.6%
Call $OI (near money)$730
Put $OI (near money)$10K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$15.0
Major Expirations2
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$7.50$7.00/$9.000--/$2.400
$10.00$4.50/$6.900--/$2.450
$12.50$2.40/$4.300--/$2.8017
$15.00$0.65/$3.300--/$3.300
$17.50--/$2.950$1.25/$4.200
$20.00--/$2.700$3.40/$6.500
$22.50--/$2.650$5.30/$8.100
$25.00--/$2.650$7.80/$10.600
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-4.3%
Forward FCF Margin5.9%
Forward EBITDA Margin19.1%
Forward P/FCF7.6x
Forward EV/FCF36.8x
Forward Int. Coverage1.8x
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds18%
Est. Borrow Rate11.5%
Terminal EV/FCF10.0x
LT Growth3.0%
LT FCF Margin12.0%

Employees

Headcount765
Revenue / Employee$512,873
Gross Profit / Employee$137,575
2022: 1,020 → 2023: 1,045 → 2024: 765 → 2025: 759 (-9% CAGR)

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

BALANCED

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 2.8% of float, sold 2.2%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+0.6% of float (net)
Bought 2.8% · Sold 2.2%
69 filers reported (last quarter: 74)

Ownership composition

Active
47.2%(+1.0% YoY)
57 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
14.6%(-0.8% YoY)
8 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.3%(-0.3% YoY)
3 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
15.2%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
EdgePoint Investment Group Inc.$36.4M$41.51+$0+$213K-0.3%$12.48B
Blacksheep Fund Management Ltd$18.7M$33.35+$0+$0+1.6%$247M
Universal- Beteiligungs- und Servicegesellschaft mbH$9.2M$17.05+$118K+$393K-0.5%$57.14B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$8.9M$20.88−$120K−$1.0M-0.2%$5.69T
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$6.2M$17.16+$6.2M+$6.2M$4.04T
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$3.4M$27.01+$232K−$118K+2.3%$1.61T
STATE STREET CORPPassive$3.2M$34.74+$70K+$0-0.2%$2.89T
Baader Bank Aktiengesellschaft$2.8M$27.72+$0−$4K-0.4%$1.01B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$2.3M$65.92−$69K−$288K+1.2%$63.91B
Russell Investments Group, Ltd.$1.9M$17.21+$1.9M+$1.9M+1.5%$93.03B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$1.2M$28.08−$35K−$145K+0.7%$645.81B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$1.1M$19.92+$88K−$174K-0.2%$755.34B
Blackhawk Capital Partners, LLC$1.1M$18.31+$195K+$1.1M-0.2%$273M
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive$950K$17.16+$950K+$950K$395.83B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$673K$17.16+$673K+$673K$1.91T
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.$633K$18.40+$37K+$70K-0.3%$118.02B
K.J. Harrison & Partners Inc$595K$37.41−$9K−$177K-0.6%$608M
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLPMM$557K$21.35−$492K−$77K-0.6%$77.14B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$487K$33.76+$100K−$150K-0.2%$760.93B
MORGAN STANLEY$405K$26.65−$196K−$267K-0.3%$1.65T
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-0.20%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.23%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+1.47%
20 buyers · $0.01B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.42%
26 sellers · $0.01B out
alpha coverage: 92% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-9.1%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-14.7%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-0.9%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+3.8%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+2.3%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
+1.5%
Holder mid (any stock)
-4.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-13.4%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

01.5M3.0M4.5M6.0M$17$30$43$55$682021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
INVESTMENTAKTIENGESELLSCHAFT FUER LANGFRISTIGE INVESTOREN TGBlacksheep Fund Management Ltd1.1MEdgePoint Investment Group Inc.2.1MPembroke Management, LTDRENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC136KFMR LLC2KVan Berkom & Associates Inc.Alberta Investment Management CorpWASATCH ADVISORS INCUniversal- Beteiligungs- und Servicegesellschaft mbH534K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2022 Q480M17M6M$1.95$1.95 – $1.957
2023 Q182M16M4M$1.43$1.43 – $1.439
2023 Q282M18M5M$1.19$1.19 – $1.199
2023 Q382M21M6M$1.39$1.39 – $1.399
2023 Q483M19M7M$2.09$2.09 – $2.091
2024 Q183M17M4M$1.57$1.57 – $1.571
2025 Q399M6M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000
2025 Q499M15M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000
2026 Q197M14M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000
2026 Q298M15M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2023-2025)

Direct Pay$12.8M
Incentive & Other$10.6M
Total Compensation$23.4M
% of Revenue2.1%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$252K
7 txns · 1 insider · 12,000 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2025-07-17SELLNOSS ELLIOTdirector, officer: Chief Executive Officer500$22.52$11K$9.98M
2025-07-11SELLNOSS ELLIOTdirector, officer: Chief Executive Officer700$22.86$16K$10.15M
2025-07-10SELLNOSS ELLIOTdirector, officer: Chief Executive Officer2,000$21.87$44K$9.72M
2025-07-09SELLNOSS ELLIOTdirector, officer: Chief Executive Officer500$21.21$11K$9.47M
2025-07-08SELLNOSS ELLIOTdirector, officer: Chief Executive Officer2,500$20.81$52K$9.30M
2025-07-07SELLNOSS ELLIOTdirector, officer: Chief Executive Officer2,600$20.51$53K$9.22M
2025-07-02SELLNOSS ELLIOTdirector, officer: Chief Executive Officer3,200$20.44$65K$9.24M

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

12.2%retail-1.5pp
19.0%dark-2.6pp
week of 2026-04-13
10%20%30%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Domain Name Services$64.1MNEW
Ting$19.4MNEW

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Tucows Inc: Technical Default and Massive Equity Deficit Masked by Non-Recourse Structural Shields

Overall Risk
8/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
4/10
Insolvency
9/10
Earnings Overstated
6/10
Hidden Liabilities
7/10
Legal
5/10
Audit Warnings
6/10
Hidden Upside
4/10
Contextually Acceptable
3/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In February 2026, Tucows reported a 'beat and raise' for FY2025, with revenue up 8% to $390.3M and Adjusted EBITDA surging 45% to $50.6M. The board authorized a new $40M stock buyback program. Management confirmed the Ting asset divestiture is active and not delayed by market volatility, a key step in their 'capital-light' transition. Additionally, the company extended its $240M credit facility to September 2027, providing significant runway (Source: Finviz, PR Newswire, Feb/Mar 2026).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear thesis hinges on a 'debt trap' narrative and declining fiber metrics. Bears point to Ting's net subscriber losses (down ~200 in Q3 2025) and a potential 'Return Breach' claim by a financier regarding $130M in preferred units. Short sellers expect the Ting sale to net zero or negative proceeds after covering asset-level debt, leaving the core business (Wavelo/Domains) burdened by legacy liabilities and conservative 2026 margin guidance (Source: Seeking Alpha, Broadband Breakfast, Nov/Dec 2025).

🚩 Red Flags

Ting subscriber growth has consistently underperformed internal forecasts, leading to a CEO transition where 25-year veteran Elliot Noss stepped down. There is a risk that Wavelo's revenue could shrink if the eventual Ting buyer migrates away from Tucows’ proprietary software. Management also noted that 2025 internal investments will act as a full-year cost drag on 2026 margins (Source: GuruFocus, SEC Filings, March 2026).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

In the fiber segment, Ting faces competition from incumbents like AT&T and regional coax providers who are aggressively upgrading to XGS-PON. In the software space, Wavelo competes with established BSS/OSS giants and agile startups that may offer more aggressive pricing than Tucows can afford while it remains in deleveraging mode (Source: Investing.com, Nov 2025).

💬 Customer Sentiment

While subscriber totals have fluctuated due to asset sales, Ting continues to be marketed as a 'high-satisfaction' premium fiber provider. Recent 18% YoY revenue growth in the Ting segment (Q4 2025) suggests that despite the build-out halt, the existing footprint is seeing improved ARPU and penetration. Investor sentiment is shifting; some analysts now rank TCX as a 'promising micro-cap' due to the success of its high-margin 'Expiry Stream' sales channel in the Domains business (Source: Finviz, Zacks, March 2026).

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q4 • 2026-02-26

Monica Webb: Welcome to Tucows' question-and-answer dialogue for Q4 2025. David Woroch, President and Chief Executive Officer of Tucows and Tucows Domains, will be responding to your questions. For your convenience, this audio file is also available as a transcript in the Investors section of our website, along with our Q4 2025 financial results and updated reports. I would also like to remind investors that if you would like to receive our quarterly results and Q&A via e-mail, please make the request to ir@tucows.com. Please note that the following discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are described in detail in the company's documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on the Forms 10-Q and 10-K. The company urges you to read its security filings for a full description of the risk factors applicable to its business. Today's commentary includes responses to questions submitted to us following the prerecorded management remarks regarding the quarter and outlook for the company. We are grouping similar questions into categories that we feel are addressing common queries. If your questions reach a certain threshold or volume, we may ask to schedule a call instead to ensure we can address the full scope of your questions. And if you feel that the recorded questions and/or any direct e-mail you may receive do not address the full body of your questions, please let us know. Go ahead, Dave.
David Woroch: Thank you, Monica, and welcome to our Q&A for our fourth quarter financial results. This quarter, we received 3 questions from investors, which we'll address here. We recognize that many of you are taking a wait-and-see approach regarding the Ting process, and we understand that perspective. The first question is, is there any update you can provide on the sale of Ting assets? Has the process been delayed as the price of such assets begins to fall with the broad market sell-off? The Ting process has not been delayed. It is ongoing, and we do not believe that external volatility has a direct impact on the time line. We continue to work closely with our financial advisers to determine the optimal path forward. Based on our experience with acquisitions and domains, transactions of this nature require a thorough diligence and coordination among multiple stakeholders, and time lines are driven by the specifics of the asset and the availability of information. We remain deeply engaged in the process and focused on achieving the best outcome. The next question is, why is the adjusted EBITDA margin on Wavelo expected to be down year-over-year as per 2026 guidance? As noted in the management remarks with our Q4 release, there are Ting Fiber and mobile customers on the Wavelo platform. Based on different potential outcomes for the Ting process, this could result in a reduction of fees for Wavelo. There is a range here, and we are conservatively forecasting that possibility in Wavelo's adjusted EBITDA guidance. Additionally, we layered in some investments midway through 2025 that are now fully annualized costs in 2026, and we're continuing to invest to grow Wavelo's top line while still remaining below the cost structure of our competitors. And lastly, we had a question on the announced stock buyback program stating, "I know you always renew this. What is the company's access to liquidity? I also assume that the window is closed until the conclusion of the fiber divestiture." As a reminder to investors, the annual buyback authorization provides flexibility, not a commitment to buy back stock, and any deployment will be evaluated against return thresholds and liquidity considerations. Liquidity and balance sheet strength remain priorities. As discussed in recent quarters, continued deleveraging of the Tucows' syndicated debt and completion of the Ting divestiture process are central to further strengthening our liquidity profile. The syndicated debt paydown is ongoing, and each dollar repaid increases available borrowing capacity up to the committed limit. A successful Ting divestiture would further enhance liquidity by improving our consolidated free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA profile, supporting greater borrowing capacity and overall financial flexibility. Capital allocation remains conservative and deliberate. We are developing a formal framework to guide the appropriate balance between continued deleveraging, reinvestment in the business, potential acquisition opportunities and share repurchases. Currently, our liquidity, excluding Ting, consists of approximately $20.9 million of unrestricted cash. Liquidity remains sound, and our immediate focus is consistent free cash flow generation and further balance sheet strengthening. Thank you for listening to our Q&A. And a reminder that if you feel that the recorded answers or any direct e-mail you receive do not address your question, please follow up with us at ir@tucows.com.