Stocks/STRS

STRS

Stratus Properties Inc.
Real Estate·Real Estate - Diversified
$28.59
$228M market cap
Claude Rating
5/10HOLD
Revenue
$28.7M
Free Cash Flow
$-40.9M
Rev Growth
-24.8%
FCF Margin
-142.5%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
10.1x
Fair Value
$33.00
Upside
+15.4%

Stratus Properties Inc., a real estate company, engages in the acquisition, entitlement, development, management, and sale of commercial, and multi-and single-family residential real estate properties primarily in Texas. The company operates in two segments, Real Estate Operations and Leasing Operations. Its leasing operations cover lease of space at retail and mixed-use, and multi-family properties. Stratus Properties Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

2-Year Price History

$28.92+21.3%
$16$18$20$22$24$26$28$30$32volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q410.0-6.0---8.0---5.0-0.1112.6----------
Est2027-Q335.07.0--2.8--6.3-0.2117.6----------
Est2027-Q220.0-4.0---6.0---3.6-0.1111.3----------
Est2027-Q150.015.0--7.5--14.0-0.3114.9----------
Est2026-Q430.03.0---1.5--2.4-0.3100.9----------
Est2026-Q345.011.3--5.4--9.9-0.798.5----------
Est2026-Q215.0-6.0---7.5---5.3-0.588.6----------
Est2026-Q165.022.8--13.0--19.5-1.393.8----------
Act2026-Q13.817.1-7.66.6-15.6-15.6-0.074.3159.88.1-12.4%285.6x10.4x
Act2025-Q48.324.6-4.319.6-5.8-5.8-0.174.3159.08.2-7.3%50.3x20.0x
Act2025-Q35.0-5.5-8.1-5.0-14.2-15.1-0.955.0242.78.0-10.3%-7.3x--
Act2025-Q211.6-4.4-0.80.3-1.7-4.3-2.659.4214.78.2-1.1%-15.8x--
Act2025-Q15.0-2.4-3.6-2.9-13.5-18.0-4.512.0223.38.0-4.9%----
Act2024-Q410.3-0.0-1.4-0.5-3.4-9.6-6.220.2210.38.0-2.0%--220.7x
Act2024-Q38.9-1.8-1.5-0.4-0.7-7.5-6.819.6197.18.1-2.2%--750.6x
Act2024-Q28.5-1.5-2.9-1.7-8.3-16.3-8.013.5194.08.1-4.3%--904.8x
Act2024-Q126.55.13.74.66.6-1.6-8.120.7184.08.25.5%----
Act2023-Q44.3-1.3-2.7-0.9-12.0-21.7-9.831.4191.08.0-3.3%-0.3x--
Act2023-Q33.7-1.9-3.3-2.8-12.6-25.3-12.735.2172.08.2-5.4%-0.6x--
Act2023-Q23.5-4.4-5.4-5.3-8.4-21.8-13.544.2153.78.2-9.2%-1.5x--
Act2023-Q15.8-4.7-5.6-5.8-18.4-28.4-10.050.9144.78.0-9.7%----
Act2022-Q413.3-6.0-7.0-6.1-5.9-21.9-15.937.7137.68.2-12.0%----
Act2022-Q310.0-1.2-2.8-2.4-5.7-17.0-11.363.5139.18.3-4.6%-27.3x--
Act2022-Q211.11.40.596.6-25.5-38.4-12.9102.4128.88.40.6%----
Act2022-Q13.1-2.41.52.3-18.1-32.8-14.712.3135.68.43.2%-161.2x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude5/10HOLDFV: $33.00

Stratus Properties is now a liquidation story, not a going-concern investment. The company has announced a plan to sell all remaining assets and distribute net proceeds to shareholders. With ~$573M in consolidated assets against ~$240M in liabilities (book equity ~$333M or ~$42/share), there is theoretical upside to the current ~$32/share price if assets are liquidated at or near book value. However, significant risks exist: aggressive interest and cost capitalization may have inflated asset carrying values, the Austin real estate market is softening, VIE structures complicate the picture (Stratus consolidates entities where it owns as little as 10%), wind-down costs and taxes will erode proceeds, and timing is highly uncertain requiring shareholder and lender approvals. The Lantana and Kingwood sales at reasonable prices are positive data points, but remaining assets (Holden Hills lots, other development projects) face execution risk. Net-net, this is roughly fairly valued as a liquidation - modest upside if execution goes well, but meaningful downside if the Austin market deteriorates further or assets sell below book.

Catalyst Successful completion of remaining major asset sales (Holden Hills lots, Jones Crossing, remaining properties) at or above carrying values, followed by meaningful cash distributions to shareholders. Shareholder approval of the dissolution plan would also be a catalyst.
Risk Assets are liquidated below their aggressively capitalized book values due to Austin market softening, buyer leverage from rising inventory, or forced/distressed sale dynamics, resulting in distributions well below the current share price.
Trend
DETERIORATING
Mgmt
4/10
Quarter
3/10
Exp. Move
-2.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$28.59
Market Cap$228M
Enterprise Value$314M
P/S Ratio8.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-142.5%
FCF Yield-17.9%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution0.2%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$28.7M
Net Income$21.5M
Free Cash Flow$-40.9M

Revenue Growth (YoY)-24.8%
EBITDA Margin111.1%
Net Margin75.0%
FCF Margin-142.5%
CapEx % of Revenue12.8%
SBC % of Revenue2.1%
ROIC-7.8%
WC Change % Rev42.9%
Interest Coverage20.2x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$0.72
-97.5% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$58M
− Net Debt$85M
= Fair Equity$6M
Revenue Growth-25.8% → 1.0%
FCF Margin-142.5% → 0.0%
Discount Rate16.0%
Terminal EV/FCF6.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float1.6%
Short Shares0.1M
Days to Cover2.8
Change (vs Prior)+6.8%
Short % Float History
1.60%+0.50pp
1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+440.8%
Forward FCF Margin17.1%
Forward EBITDA Margin20.0%
Forward P/FCF8.6x
Forward EV/FCF11.8x
Forward Int. Coverage5.2x
Model Risk Score8/10
Bankruptcy Odds12%
Est. Borrow Rate9.5%
Terminal EV/FCF0.0x
LT Growth0.0%
LT FCF Margin0.0%

Employees

Headcount34
Revenue / Employee$843,000
Gross Profit / Employee$-255,676
2022: 31 → 2023: 33 → 2024: 34 → 2025: 34 (3% CAGR)

Cash Runway

21.8months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 3.1% of float, sold 1.4%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+1.7% of float (net)
Bought 3.1% · Sold 1.4%
61 filers reported (last quarter: 53)

Ownership composition

Active
35.8%(+15.3% YoY)
52 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
13.8%(+2.7% YoY)
5 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(+0.1% YoY)
3 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
11.4%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
Oasis Management Co Ltd.$34.6M$19.65+$0−$88K-2.4%$729M
INGALLS & SNYDER LLC$27.4M$20.42+$99K+$40K+0.0%$2.82B
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$11.7M$22.27−$746K−$1.3M-0.4%$480.92B
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$10.8M$25.58−$264K+$800K-0.2%$5.69T
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$4.9M$25.18+$39K+$549K+2.3%$1.61T
RBF Capital, LLC$4.1M$37.48+$0+$0+0.2%$2.03B
Hodges Capital Management Inc.$4.0M$23.34−$833K−$333K-0.3%$1.21B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$2.7M$26.62+$0+$125K-0.2%$2.89T
Russell Investments Group, Ltd.$2.2M$27.79+$2.2M+$1.6M+1.5%$93.03B
TECTONIC ADVISORS LLC$1.8M$20.96+$32K+$179K-0.0%$1.89B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$1.6M$26.33+$26K+$114K-0.2%$755.34B
B & T Capital Management DBA Alpha Capital Management$1.5M$23.45+$192K−$307K+0.0%$690M
Value Investment Professionals, LLC$1.3M$24.18−$5K+$1.3M+3.0%$42.4M
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$550K$19.61−$64K+$53K+1.0%$645.81B
BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC$472K$37.48+$0+$0-2.3%$4.93B
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$448K$20.21−$33K+$74K+0.5%$543.21B
Rangeley Capital, LLC$383K$30.52+$383K+$383K-1.3%$91.1M
CROWN ADVISORS MANAGEMENT, INC.$377K$37.48−$1.1M+$377K+1.2%$151M
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$369K$27.55+$64K+$369K-0.4%$138.22B
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/$368K$23.77+$43K+$61K-0.2%$864.93B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
-1.15%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.92%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.36%
20 buyers · $0.01B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.41%
23 sellers · $-0.00B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-9.6%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-10.5%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-16.3%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+3.2%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-2.1%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.3%
Holder mid (any stock)
+0.4%
Holder rally (any stock)
-4.0%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

0702K1.4M2.1M2.8M$18$23$28$33$372021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Oasis Management Co Ltd.1.1MINGALLS & SNYDER LLC897KTHIRD AVENUE MANAGEMENT LLCHodges Capital Management Inc.132KRBF Capital, LLC133KDeep Field Asset Management LLCPRECEPT MANAGEMENT LLCZweig-DiMenna Associates LLCCROWN ADVISORS MANAGEMENT, INC.12KOAKMONT CORP

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2022-2024)

Direct Pay$20.4M
Incentive & Other$4.4M
Total Compensation$24.8M
% of Revenue24.9%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$453K
2 txns · 1 insider · 17,335 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$4.65M
15 txns · 1 insider · 155,747 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-18SELLJOSEPH JAMESdirector12,335$29.08$359K$98K
2026-05-07SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner720$30.03$22K$29.46M
2026-05-04SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner10,000$29.71$297K$29.17M
2026-04-28SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner4,916$30.03$148K$29.79M
2026-04-27SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner20,000$30.00$600K$29.91M
2026-04-24SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner10,000$29.89$299K$30.39M
2026-04-22SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner493$30.19$15K$30.99M
2026-04-20SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner4,483$30.02$135K$30.84M
2026-04-17SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner44,323$29.98$1.33M$30.93M
2026-04-16SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner29,788$30.07$896K$32.36M
2026-04-15SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner10,243$30.30$310K$33.51M
2026-04-08SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner3,148$30.08$95K$33.57M
2026-04-07SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner9,400$30.17$284K$33.77M
2026-04-02SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner5,417$30.11$163K$33.99M
2025-11-26SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner818$22.80$19K$25.86M
2025-09-18SELLOasis Management Co Ltd.10 percent owner1,998$21.02$42K$23.86M
2025-07-02SELLJOSEPH JAMESdirector5,000$18.82$94K$296K

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

19.3%retail+5.3pp
14.7%dark-9.6pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2026-Q1)
Real Estate$0.1M+228%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Stratus Properties Inc.: Forensic Analysis Impaired by Minimalist Metadata Disclosure

Overall Risk
5/10
Fraud
1/10
Dilution
1/10
Insolvency
1/10
Earnings Overstated
1/10
Hidden Liabilities
1/10
Legal
1/10
Audit Warnings
1/10
Hidden Upside
1/10
Contextually Acceptable
10/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

On March 11, 2026, Stratus Properties announced a definitive plan for liquidation and dissolution following a strategic alternatives review. This move aims to sell all remaining assets and distribute net proceeds to shareholders. Recent major asset sales include Kingwood Place for $60.8 million (February 2026), Lantana Place for $57.5 million (November 2025), and West Killeen Market (May 2025). As of late 2025, the company also significantly bolstered its liquidity through a $47.8 million distribution from the Holden Hills Phase 2 partnership and has an active $25 million share repurchase program.

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case relies on poor fundamental metrics, including a trailing twelve-month net loss of $7.6 million and deeply negative operating margins (-59.69%). Skeptics point to a low Altman Z-Score (0.57-0.71), which historically suggests financial distress, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.18. Additionally, bears argue that the Austin real estate market, where Stratus is concentrated, is facing downward pricing pressure and cooling sales volume compared to pandemic highs.

🚩 Red Flags

Significant execution and timing risks associated with the liquidation plan, as it requires both shareholder and lender approvals. High volatility (Beta of 1.31-1.62) makes the stock sensitive to macro shifts. Financial health remains a concern with ongoing free cash flow deficits and a reliance on one-off asset sales to mask operating losses.

⚔️ Competitive Threats

The Austin real estate market is seeing increased inventory (up 8.6% in early 2026), providing buyers with more leverage and forcing developers to offer concessions. Competition from other national and local developers in the 'Texas Triangle' remains fierce, particularly as residential pricing experienced a ~5% decline in recent months.

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment in the core Austin market is showing 'mixed signals' but improving; while prices have adjusted downward, pending sales in early 2026 are outperforming 2025 levels, indicating resilient demand. For Stratus specifically, retail leasing remains a bright spot with stabilized properties like Jones Crossing nearing full occupancy and newer multi-family projects showing early lease-up momentum.