Stocks/SRL

SRL

Scully Royalty Ltd.
Financial Services·Financial - Capital Markets
$6.13
$93M market cap
Claude Rating
3/10SELL
Revenue
$37.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-13.1M
Rev Growth
+5.0%
FCF Margin
-35.3%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
87.8x
Fair Value
$5.50
Upside
-10.3%

Scully Royalty Ltd. operates as an iron ore mining company in the Americas, Africa, Canada, Asia, and Europe. It operates through three segments: Royalty, Industrial, and Merchant Banking. The company holds royalty interest in the Scully iron ore mine located in the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. It also engages in manufacturing, and medical supplies and services industries. The company was formerly known as MFC Bancorp Ltd. and changed its name to Scully Royalty Ltd. in June 201

2-Year Price History

$6.13-7.1%
$6.0$7.0$8.0$9.0volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall (CAD M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2027-Q211.53.5--1.2--2.1-0.127.1----------
Est2027-Q110.52.9--0.8--1.6-0.125.0----------
Est2026-Q49.52.1--0.2--0.8-0.123.4----------
Est2026-Q310.02.5--0.5--1.2-0.122.7----------
Est2026-Q28.01.4---0.4--0.4-0.121.5----------
Est2026-Q15.5-0.6---1.9---2.2-0.121.1----------
Est2025-Q47.00.4---1.4---1.8-0.123.3----------
Est2025-Q38.51.3---0.7---0.4-0.125.0----------
Act2025-Q219.14.20.8-2.02.72.5-0.225.439.415.01.1%3.7x25.1x
Act2024-Q417.93.0-5.3-0.7-15.6-15.6-0.042.536.614.8-7.7%1.7x--
Act2024-Q218.2-12.32.6-20.1-16.0-16.1-0.146.236.314.83.5%-14.6x--
Act2023-Q427.910.67.10.5-2.1-2.1-0.191.244.014.87.5%13.1x3.7x
Act2023-Q226.19.05.40.915.115.1-0.0103.343.114.85.8%9.7x--
Act2022-Q427.9-28.7-1.8-27.68.08.0-0.194.043.414.8-1.8%-32.4x--
Act2022-Q236.517.29.24.07.37.1-0.278.340.114.97.7%18.3x--
Historical Valuation

Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.

YearPriceRev GrEBITDA %EBITDAEV/EBITDAEV/FCFP/EP/S
TTM6.13-29.7%6.5%50.0×0.0×0.0×0.0×
2026E6.13-60.3%0.2%00.0×0.1×n/m0.0×

EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude3/10SELLFV: $5.50

SRL is a deeply troubled governance situation masquerading as a royalty company. The core Scully mine royalty has genuine value ($3-6M/year in a normalized iron ore environment), but this is overwhelmed by: (1) an active boardroom civil war with competing legal claims of authority, (2) royalty payments frozen by court interpleader, (3) $77-116M in unprovisioned RBI litigation that represents 24-36% of total equity, (4) a history of Chairman-controlled related-party transactions representing 23% of financial assets, and (5) an Industrial segment being liquidated at 63% discounts to book. The activist campaign by MILFAM/Kellogg represents a potential catalyst for value unlocking through asset liquidation and governance reform, but the legal morass could take years to resolve. At current market cap of ~CAD 184M against book equity of ~CAD 310M (0.59x P/B), the stock appears optically cheap but the discount is justified given the extreme tail risks. This is a special situation that requires significant legal resolution before the risk/reward becomes attractive.

Catalyst Resolution of the Ontario interpleader action restoring royalty cash flows to the company, combined with successful board consolidation and initiation of non-core asset liquidation program. Settlement or dismissal of RBI litigation would remove the largest overhang.
Risk The $77-116M RBI litigation results in an adverse judgment that, combined with ongoing governance paralysis and frozen royalty payments, creates a liquidity crisis and forces a distressed sale or restructuring.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
3/10
Quarter
7/10
Exp. Move
-5.0%

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$6.13
Market Cap$93M
Enterprise Value$143M
P/S Ratio3.5x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)-35.3%
FCF Yield-10.2%
Dividend Yield (TTM)4.2%
Annual Dilution0.8%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$37.0M
Net Income$-2.7M
Free Cash Flow$-13.1M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+5.0%
EBITDA Margin19.4%
Net Margin-7.2%
FCF Margin-35.3%
CapEx % of Revenue0.6%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-3.3%
WC Change % Rev-126.5%
Interest Coverage2.5x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$-0.04
-100.7% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$-9M
− Net Debt$14M
= Fair Equity$-1M
Revenue Growth-12.9% → 2.0%
FCF Margin-35.3% → 12.0%
Discount Rate17.0%
Terminal EV/FCF7.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float0.2%
Short Shares0.0M
Days to Cover1.4
Change (vs Prior)+11.0%
Short % Float History
0.20%+0.20pp
0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)--
Put IV (ATM)--
ATM Spread--
Call $OI (near money)$6K
Put $OI (near money)$5K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$5.0
Major Expirations1
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$2.50--/--0--/--0
$5.00--/--0--/--0
$7.50--/--29--/--16
$10.00--/--0--/--11
$12.50--/--2--/--0
$15.00--/--0--/--0
$17.50--/--0--/--0
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth-58.2%
Forward FCF Margin-14.0%
Forward EBITDA Margin10.5%
Forward P/FCF--
Forward EV/FCF--
Forward Int. Coverage1.6x
Model Risk Score9/10
Bankruptcy Odds15%
Est. Borrow Rate14.0%
Terminal EV/FCF7.0x
LT Growth2.0%
LT FCF Margin12.0%

Employees

Headcount71
Revenue / Employee$521,841
Gross Profit / Employee$171,063
2021: 72 → 2022: 71 → 2023: 72 → 2024: 71 (-1% CAGR)

Cash Runway

23.3months
WATCH

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

BALANCED

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 0.8% of float, sold 0.5%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+0.3% of float (net)
Bought 0.8% · Sold 0.5%
17 filers reported (last quarter: 14)

Ownership composition

Active
50.7%(+14.8% YoY)
17 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
0 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.0%(+0.0% YoY)
0 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
IAT REINSURANCE CO LTD.$26.7M$6.87+$0+$0-3.3%$300M
MILFAM LLC$15.5M$7.82+$15.5M+$15.5M$99.3M
Nantahala Capital Management, LLC$2.9M$8.96+$0+$0-2.4%$1.60B
MORGAN STANLEY$683K$8.11−$435K−$960K-0.3%$1.65T
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$533K$7.68+$155K+$80K+1.2%$63.91B
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$433K$7.43+$336K+$433K-0.4%$138.22B
BARCLAYS PLC$278K$8.42+$50K+$278K-0.1%$279.69B
XTX Topco Ltd$125K$7.82+$125K+$125K-1.9%$5.74B
KERR FINANCIAL PLANNING Corp$96K$6.00+$0+$96K-1.2%$80.8M
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN$28K$7.97+$0−$69K-0.2%$497.71B
SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC$5K$6.92−$3K+$5K+2.5%$3.23B
Larson Financial Group LLC$2K$8.63+$0+$0-0.0%$3.08B
ADVISOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.$0$6.89+$0+$0-0.3%$67.63B
PFS Partners, LLC$0$8.63+$0+$0+0.0%$218M
Federation des caisses Desjardins du Quebec$0$6.00+$0+$0-0.3%$27.79B
SBI Securities Co., Ltd.$0$7.78+$0+$0+0.9%$3.62B
UBS Group AG$0$6.93−$0−$28K-0.3%$562.11B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-2.96%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-2.95%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.38%
5 buyers · $0.02B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.28%
3 sellers · $0.00B out
alpha coverage: 67% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-6.3%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+9.4%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-7.6%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
-11.8%
outflows — trims may be forced
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+3.0%
Sellers grew AUM elsewhere — opinionated cut of this stock.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.3%
Holder mid (any stock)
-2.1%
Holder rally (any stock)
-4.1%

Top-5 holders · 98.0%

IAT REINSURANCE CO LTD.--
MILFAM LLC--
Nantahala Capital Management, LLC--
MORGAN STANLEY--
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC--

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

01.5M3.0M4.5M6.0M$5.48$6.35$7.22$8.09$8.962021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
IAT REINSURANCE CO LTD.3.4MMILFAM LLC2.0MNantahala Capital Management, LLC368KMORGAN STANLEY87KROYAL BANK OF CANADABlue Trust, Inc.THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANSRENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC68KCITADEL ADVISORS LLC55KBARCLAYS PLC36K

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Consensus Estimates
QuarterRevenueEBITDANet IncEPSEPS Range# Analysts
2009 Q296M-4M-5M$-0.34$-0.39 – $-0.2717
2009 Q338M6M20M$0.69$0.55 – $0.8318
2010 Q12M0M-77M$5.18$4.15 – $6.229
2010 Q228M5M-4M$0.47$0.37 – $0.5618
2010 Q33M-18M25M$0.64$0.51 – $0.7719
2019 Q12.4B361M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.009
2019 Q22.3B354M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.0014
2025 Q219M3M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000
2025 Q319M3M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000
2025 Q418M3M0M$0.00$0.00 – $0.000

Corporate

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

52.9%retail+19.2pp
2.2%dark-4.5pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%80%100%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Scully Royalty Ltd: Opaque Related Party Maze and Unprovisioned Legal Threats

Overall Risk
8/10
Fraud
7/10
Dilution
4/10
Insolvency
3/10
Earnings Overstated
6/10
Hidden Liabilities
8/10
Legal
9/10
Audit Warnings
5/10
Hidden Upside
4/10
Contextually Acceptable
3/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

In January 2026, Scully Royalty underwent a radical leadership overhaul following a successful activist campaign by MILFAM LLC (13% holder) and Kellogg (34.8% holder). The new board terminated CEO/CFO Samuel Morrow 'for cause' on January 12, 2026, after he refused to vacate the position following a contested December 2025 shareholder vote. Financially, the company reported a major turnaround in its H1 2025 results (released late Dec 2025), with EBITDA turning positive ($4.3M vs. -$12.2M YoY) and operating cash flow improving to +$4M from a -$16M deficit in the prior year (Source: StockTitan, Fintool).

🐻 Bear Case

The bear case centers on severe governance risk and the legal 'gridlock' currently freezing cash flows. Due to the dispute between the former management and the new activist board, the mine operator (Tacora Resources) has filed an interpleader action in the Ontario Superior Court as of February 2026. This effectively diverts January 2026 royalty payments into a court-controlled account until the legal 'lawful authority' of the board is resolved, starving the company of immediate liquidity (Source: GlobeNewswire).

🚩 Red Flags

A major red flag is the 'for cause' termination of the previous executive team and their subsequent refusal to acknowledge the new board, which led to competing claims of authority in the Cayman Islands and Ontario courts. Additionally, the company is mired in 'RBI litigation' concerning alleged asset transfers from 2017, with potential liabilities or settlements ranging between $77M and $106M (Source: JoinYellowbrick).

⚔️ Competitive Threats

Operational execution at the Bloom Lake/Scully Mine remains a critical threat; while operator Tacora Resources recently exited bankruptcy with a $250M injection, it must successfully double production from 3Mtpa to 6Mtpa to justify bull-case valuations. External threats include high sensitivity to premium iron ore prices (>65% Fe), which fluctuate based on Chinese industrial demand and global steel cycles (Source: JoinYellowbrick, PitchBook).

💬 Customer Sentiment

Shareholder sentiment has shifted from despair to aggressive activism; approximately 59% of outstanding shares voted to replace the board, indicating a mandate for total liquidation of non-core assets. Conversely, 'customer' sentiment from Tacora Resources appears cautious and neutral, as evidenced by their decision to seek court intervention rather than siding with either board faction regarding royalty payments (Source: Fintool, GlobeNewswire).