SRL
Scully Royalty Ltd.Scully Royalty Ltd. operates as an iron ore mining company in the Americas, Africa, Canada, Asia, and Europe. It operates through three segments: Royalty, Industrial, and Merchant Banking. The company holds royalty interest in the Scully iron ore mine located in the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. It also engages in manufacturing, and medical supplies and services industries. The company was formerly known as MFC Bancorp Ltd. and changed its name to Scully Royalty Ltd. in June 201
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 11.5 | 3.5 | -- | 1.2 | -- | 2.1 | -0.1 | 27.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 10.5 | 2.9 | -- | 0.8 | -- | 1.6 | -0.1 | 25.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 9.5 | 2.1 | -- | 0.2 | -- | 0.8 | -0.1 | 23.4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 10.0 | 2.5 | -- | 0.5 | -- | 1.2 | -0.1 | 22.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 8.0 | 1.4 | -- | -0.4 | -- | 0.4 | -0.1 | 21.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 5.5 | -0.6 | -- | -1.9 | -- | -2.2 | -0.1 | 21.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 7.0 | 0.4 | -- | -1.4 | -- | -1.8 | -0.1 | 23.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2025-Q3 | 8.5 | 1.3 | -- | -0.7 | -- | -0.4 | -0.1 | 25.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 19.1 | 4.2 | 0.8 | -2.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 25.4 | 39.4 | 15.0 | 1.1% | 3.7x | 25.1x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 17.9 | 3.0 | -5.3 | -0.7 | -15.6 | -15.6 | -0.0 | 42.5 | 36.6 | 14.8 | -7.7% | 1.7x | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 18.2 | -12.3 | 2.6 | -20.1 | -16.0 | -16.1 | -0.1 | 46.2 | 36.3 | 14.8 | 3.5% | -14.6x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 27.9 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 0.5 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -0.1 | 91.2 | 44.0 | 14.8 | 7.5% | 13.1x | 3.7x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 26.1 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 15.1 | 15.1 | -0.0 | 103.3 | 43.1 | 14.8 | 5.8% | 9.7x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 27.9 | -28.7 | -1.8 | -27.6 | 8.0 | 8.0 | -0.1 | 94.0 | 43.4 | 14.8 | -1.8% | -32.4x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 36.5 | 17.2 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | -0.2 | 78.3 | 40.1 | 14.9 | 7.7% | 18.3x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTM | 6.13 | -29.7% | 6.5% | 5 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 6.13 | -60.3% | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0× | 0.1× | n/m | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
SRL is a deeply troubled governance situation masquerading as a royalty company. The core Scully mine royalty has genuine value ($3-6M/year in a normalized iron ore environment), but this is overwhelmed by: (1) an active boardroom civil war with competing legal claims of authority, (2) royalty payments frozen by court interpleader, (3) $77-116M in unprovisioned RBI litigation that represents 24-36% of total equity, (4) a history of Chairman-controlled related-party transactions representing 23% of financial assets, and (5) an Industrial segment being liquidated at 63% discounts to book. The activist campaign by MILFAM/Kellogg represents a potential catalyst for value unlocking through asset liquidation and governance reform, but the legal morass could take years to resolve. At current market cap of ~CAD 184M against book equity of ~CAD 310M (0.59x P/B), the stock appears optically cheap but the discount is justified given the extreme tail risks. This is a special situation that requires significant legal resolution before the risk/reward becomes attractive.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | --/-- | 0 | --/-- | 0 |
| $5.00 | --/-- | 0 | --/-- | 0 |
| $7.50 | --/-- | 29 | --/-- | 16 |
| $10.00 | --/-- | 0 | --/-- | 11 |
| $12.50 | --/-- | 2 | --/-- | 0 |
| $15.00 | --/-- | 0 | --/-- | 0 |
| $17.50 | --/-- | 0 | --/-- | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 0.8% of float, sold 0.5%.
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAT REINSURANCE CO LTD. | $26.7M | $6.87 | +$0 | +$0 | -3.3% | $300M |
| MILFAM LLC | $15.5M | $7.82 | +$15.5M | +$15.5M | — | $99.3M |
| Nantahala Capital Management, LLC | $2.9M | $8.96 | +$0 | +$0 | -2.4% | $1.60B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $683K | $8.11 | −$435K | −$960K | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $533K | $7.68 | +$155K | +$80K | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| CITADEL ADVISORS LLC | $433K | $7.43 | +$336K | +$433K | -0.4% | $138.22B |
| BARCLAYS PLC | $278K | $8.42 | +$50K | +$278K | -0.1% | $279.69B |
| XTX Topco Ltd | $125K | $7.82 | +$125K | +$125K | -1.9% | $5.74B |
| KERR FINANCIAL PLANNING Corp | $96K | $6.00 | +$0 | +$96K | -1.2% | $80.8M |
| WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN | $28K | $7.97 | +$0 | −$69K | -0.2% | $497.71B |
| SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC | $5K | $6.92 | −$3K | +$5K | +2.5% | $3.23B |
| Larson Financial Group LLC | $2K | $8.63 | +$0 | +$0 | -0.0% | $3.08B |
| ADVISOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. | $0 | $6.89 | +$0 | +$0 | -0.3% | $67.63B |
| PFS Partners, LLC | $0 | $8.63 | +$0 | +$0 | +0.0% | $218M |
| Federation des caisses Desjardins du Quebec | $0 | $6.00 | +$0 | +$0 | -0.3% | $27.79B |
| SBI Securities Co., Ltd. | $0 | $7.78 | +$0 | +$0 | +0.9% | $3.62B |
| UBS Group AG | $0 | $6.93 | −$0 | −$28K | -0.3% | $562.11B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 98.0%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 Q2 | 96M | -4M | -5M | $-0.34 | $-0.39 – $-0.27 | 17 |
| 2009 Q3 | 38M | 6M | 20M | $0.69 | $0.55 – $0.83 | 18 |
| 2010 Q1 | 2M | 0M | -77M | $5.18 | $4.15 – $6.22 | 9 |
| 2010 Q2 | 28M | 5M | -4M | $0.47 | $0.37 – $0.56 | 18 |
| 2010 Q3 | 3M | -18M | 25M | $0.64 | $0.51 – $0.77 | 19 |
| 2019 Q1 | 2.4B | 361M | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 9 |
| 2019 Q2 | 2.3B | 354M | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 14 |
| 2025 Q2 | 19M | 3M | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 0 |
| 2025 Q3 | 19M | 3M | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 0 |
| 2025 Q4 | 18M | 3M | 0M | $0.00 | $0.00 – $0.00 | 0 |
Corporate
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Scully Royalty Ltd: Opaque Related Party Maze and Unprovisioned Legal Threats
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In January 2026, Scully Royalty underwent a radical leadership overhaul following a successful activist campaign by MILFAM LLC (13% holder) and Kellogg (34.8% holder). The new board terminated CEO/CFO Samuel Morrow 'for cause' on January 12, 2026, after he refused to vacate the position following a contested December 2025 shareholder vote. Financially, the company reported a major turnaround in its H1 2025 results (released late Dec 2025), with EBITDA turning positive ($4.3M vs. -$12.2M YoY) and operating cash flow improving to +$4M from a -$16M deficit in the prior year (Source: StockTitan, Fintool).
The bear case centers on severe governance risk and the legal 'gridlock' currently freezing cash flows. Due to the dispute between the former management and the new activist board, the mine operator (Tacora Resources) has filed an interpleader action in the Ontario Superior Court as of February 2026. This effectively diverts January 2026 royalty payments into a court-controlled account until the legal 'lawful authority' of the board is resolved, starving the company of immediate liquidity (Source: GlobeNewswire).
A major red flag is the 'for cause' termination of the previous executive team and their subsequent refusal to acknowledge the new board, which led to competing claims of authority in the Cayman Islands and Ontario courts. Additionally, the company is mired in 'RBI litigation' concerning alleged asset transfers from 2017, with potential liabilities or settlements ranging between $77M and $106M (Source: JoinYellowbrick).
Operational execution at the Bloom Lake/Scully Mine remains a critical threat; while operator Tacora Resources recently exited bankruptcy with a $250M injection, it must successfully double production from 3Mtpa to 6Mtpa to justify bull-case valuations. External threats include high sensitivity to premium iron ore prices (>65% Fe), which fluctuate based on Chinese industrial demand and global steel cycles (Source: JoinYellowbrick, PitchBook).
Shareholder sentiment has shifted from despair to aggressive activism; approximately 59% of outstanding shares voted to replace the board, indicating a mandate for total liquidation of non-core assets. Conversely, 'customer' sentiment from Tacora Resources appears cautious and neutral, as evidenced by their decision to seek court intervention rather than siding with either board faction regarding royalty payments (Source: Fintool, GlobeNewswire).