SMPL
The Simply Good Foods CompanyThe Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements. It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names. The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as m
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2028-Q1 | 355.0 | 62.1 | -- | 37.3 | -- | 51.5 | -3.6 | 488.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 370.0 | 62.9 | -- | 37.0 | -- | 51.8 | -5.6 | 437.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 380.0 | 66.5 | -- | 39.9 | -- | 58.9 | -3.8 | 385.4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 340.0 | 57.1 | -- | 33.3 | -- | 45.9 | -3.4 | 326.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 345.0 | 56.9 | -- | 32.8 | -- | 44.9 | -3.5 | 280.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 355.0 | 56.8 | -- | 32.0 | -- | 44.4 | -7.1 | 235.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 365.0 | 56.6 | -- | 31.0 | -- | 51.1 | -5.5 | 191.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 328.0 | 37.7 | -- | 16.4 | -- | 32.8 | -8.2 | 140.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q2 | 326.0 | 49.2 | 44.9 | -159.7 | 8.1 | 2.6 | -5.5 | 107.4 | 396.9 | 92.3 | 20.3% | 8.4x | 13.8x |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 340.2 | 34.2 | 37.6 | 25.3 | 50.1 | 48.0 | -2.1 | 194.1 | 444.3 | 99.1 | 9.8% | 8.0x | 17.6x |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 369.0 | -6.9 | 49.2 | -12.4 | 45.4 | 27.3 | -18.0 | 98.5 | 304.4 | 101.0 | 17.3% | -1.7x | 18.9x |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 381.0 | 66.8 | 64.6 | 41.1 | 69.8 | 68.1 | -1.7 | 98.0 | 304.7 | 101.6 | 17.2% | 13.6x | 15.0x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 359.7 | 62.1 | 56.9 | 36.8 | 31.3 | 30.8 | -0.5 | 103.7 | 334.9 | 101.8 | 14.8% | 9.8x | 16.8x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 341.3 | 62.3 | 60.2 | 38.1 | 32.0 | 31.7 | -0.3 | 121.8 | 386.7 | 101.5 | 16.5% | 7.9x | 15.6x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 375.7 | 57.1 | 59.6 | 29.3 | 47.8 | 43.1 | -4.6 | 132.5 | 437.3 | 101.4 | 15.5% | 6.1x | 16.2x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 334.8 | 66.6 | 61.5 | 41.3 | 72.8 | 72.0 | -0.8 | 208.7 | 276.9 | 101.3 | 18.2% | 13.3x | 14.2x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 312.2 | 55.9 | 48.1 | 33.1 | 46.5 | 46.1 | -0.3 | 135.9 | 278.8 | 101.3 | 14.8% | 10.0x | 17.1x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 308.7 | 60.5 | 51.8 | 35.6 | 47.5 | 46.8 | -0.7 | 121.4 | 315.1 | 101.1 | 15.6% | 10.0x | 15.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 320.4 | 62.7 | 55.8 | 36.6 | 60.7 | 58.6 | -2.1 | 87.7 | 327.7 | 100.9 | 17.0% | 9.1x | 16.7x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 324.8 | 61.6 | 54.2 | 35.4 | 54.4 | 46.0 | -8.4 | 68.8 | 367.4 | 100.9 | 16.5% | 8.1x | 19.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 296.6 | 49.2 | 42.5 | 25.6 | 44.6 | 44.0 | -0.6 | 63.2 | 410.9 | 100.8 | 13.1% | 5.8x | 17.5x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 300.9 | 59.2 | 52.5 | 35.9 | 8.7 | 7.6 | -1.2 | 54.1 | 447.0 | 100.7 | 16.1% | 8.4x | 16.2x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 274.2 | 49.3 | 43.5 | 30.1 | 42.7 | 41.7 | -1.1 | 67.5 | 454.2 | 100.7 | 13.8% | 9.2x | 20.3x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 316.5 | 74.7 | 55.5 | 38.8 | 37.6 | 36.3 | -0.4 | 56.7 | 454.8 | 102.2 | 16.5% | 15.3x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 296.7 | 40.5 | 46.2 | 18.5 | 37.1 | 35.5 | -1.7 | 51.5 | 479.0 | 100.4 | 13.6% | 7.7x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 281.3 | 46.7 | 58.1 | 21.2 | -7.3 | -11.5 | -2.7 | 35.5 | 480.4 | 97.9 | 20.7% | 7.3x | -- |
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
SMPL is a deeply discounted consumer staples company trading at 8x P/FCF and under 1x P/S, reflecting legitimate concerns about Atkins' structural decline, margin compression from cocoa inflation, and CEO turnover. However, the market appears to be pricing in a permanently impaired business when in reality Quest (63% of sales, growing double-digits) remains a strong franchise in the secular protein-snacking trend, and margins should recover meaningfully in H2 FY2026 as cocoa hedges reset and pricing actions take hold. The aggressive buyback at depressed levels is shareholder-friendly if the business stabilizes. At current prices, you're essentially getting Quest at a mid-single-digit FCF multiple with Atkins and OWYN as free optionality. The key question is whether Quest's growth can continue to offset Atkins' decay and whether the $1.1B intangible asset is adequately valued — but at 0.97x sales for a business generating 12% FCF margins, significant downside appears priced in.
Latest Earnings Call
Transcript Summary
Simply Good Foods reported flat Q1 2026 net sales of $340.2 million, as strong performance from Quest and OWYN was offset by a 19% consumption decline at Atkins. Quest Salty Snacks surged 40%, while OWYN saw 18% consumption growth despite shipment lags from inventory adjustments. Gross margins were squeezed by 590 basis points due to cocoa inflation and tariffs, leading to a 20.6% drop in adjusted EBITDA to $55.6 million. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance, projecting a second-half recovery driven by new innovation, distribution gains, and easing input costs. A notable strategic development is a clinical study showing Atkins helps GLP-1 users retain muscle mass, which will anchor new marketing efforts. Demonstrating confidence in their long-term trajectory, the company repurchased 7% of its shares in Q1 and increased its buyback authorization by $200 million. While Q2 is expected to remain soft due to pricing elasticities and promotional shifts, the company anticipates double-digit profit growth by Q4 as productivity gains and lower-cost cocoa contracts begin to flow through the financial statements.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | $7.50/$10.60 | 1 | --/$0.75 | 0 |
| $5.00 | $6.00/$8.90 | 0 | --/$0.75 | 0 |
| $7.50 | $3.70/$5.70 | 0 | --/$0.20 | 0 |
| $10.00 | $0.95/$3.80 | 0 | $0.30/$0.45 | 750 |
| $12.50 | $0.75/$0.85 | 6 | $1.25/$1.45 | 0 |
| $15.00 | --/$0.35 | 0 | $2.80/$4.20 | 0 |
| $17.50 | --/$1.75 | 0 | $5.10/$6.70 | 0 |
| $20.00 | --/$0.95 | 0 | $7.60/$9.30 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 22.3% of float, sold 13.7%. 8 filers moved >1% of shares (5 buying, 3 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $188M | $34.39 | −$10.6M | −$9.1M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| BTIM Corp. | $52.2M | $32.54 | +$4.7M | +$9.1M | -0.5% | $12.16B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $48.3M | $36.99 | −$2.4M | −$3.8M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $43.1M | $34.02 | −$13.9M | −$10.9M | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| River Road Asset Management, LLC | $43.0M | $17.38 | +$20.3M | +$43.0M | -0.6% | $8.82B |
| FMR LLC | $40.5M | $36.69 | −$38.4M | −$115M | +0.3% | $1.89T |
| SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC | $32.3M | $29.11 | +$5.8M | +$5.3M | -0.3% | $13.84B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $31.6M | $35.72 | −$1.8M | −$727K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT | $29.5M | $14.35 | +$29.5M | +$29.5M | +0.0% | $46.40B |
| FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. | $27.5M | $36.25 | +$77K | −$14.2M | -0.0% | $29.55B |
| WILLIAM BLAIR INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC | $27.4M | $28.70 | −$3.1M | +$27.4M | -0.4% | $30.11B |
| T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | $23.8M | $34.36 | −$3.4M | −$50.7M | -1.3% | $145.22B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $22.4M | $27.90 | −$5.6M | +$11.7M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | $21.8M | $33.43 | +$5.6M | −$38.4M | +0.1% | $533.98B |
| ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | $21.1M | $20.85 | +$13.6M | +$20.9M | +0.1% | $184.72B |
| AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC | $18.1M | $22.89 | +$5.9M | +$13.2M | -0.1% | $430.96B |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $17.4M | $30.90 | +$664K | +$2.5M | +1.0% | $645.81B |
| BROWN ADVISORY INC | $16.6M | $17.47 | +$16.4M | +$16.6M | -0.5% | $60.79B |
| OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP | $16.2M | $14.35 | +$16.2M | +$16.2M | +1.1% | $4.31B |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $14.9M | $27.10 | +$2.8M | +$5.7M | -0.1% | $1.36T |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 33.0%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | DALEY CLAYTON C JR | director | 10,000 | $11.78 | $118K | $1.32M |
| 2026-04-23 | BUY | KILTS JAMES M | director | 80,000 | $12.39 | $991K | $2.14M |
| 2025-11-17 | BUY | Clawson Michael L | officer: Chief Commercial Officer | 5,000 | $20.00 | $100K | $752K |
| 2025-11-11 | SELL | Matthews Timothy Allen | officer: VP, Controller and CAO | 5,859 | $19.47 | $114K | $352K |
| 2025-11-06 | BUY | Bealer Christopher J | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 9,946 | $20.01 | $199K | $660K |
| 2025-07-23 | BUY | Tanner Geoff E | director, officer: President and CEO | 6,050 | $33.11 | $200K | $3.25M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| North America | $319.3M | -10% |
| International | $6.7M | +5% |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
The Simply Good Foods Company: Debt-Fueled Buybacks and Brand Decay Disguised as a Strategic Reset
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In April 2026, SMPL shares plummeted over 26% following a disastrous Q2 fiscal 2026 report. The company missed revenue estimates by a wide margin ($326M vs. $345M expected) and issued a massive downward revision for FY26 revenue guidance, now forecasting a 7%–10% decline compared to previous expectations of flat-to-modest growth. This was compounded by a $249 million non-cash impairment charge on the Atkins and OWYN brands, leading to a GAAP net loss of $159.7 million (Source: MarketBeat, Simply Wall St).
The core bull thesis of a 'stable Atkins' funding 'growth brands' has collapsed. Atkins sales fell 26.6% YoY as the brand faces an existential threat from the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. Meanwhile, the 'growth engine' brands are stalling: Quest growth flattened to just 0.3%, and the recently acquired OWYN brand saw sales drop 16.8%. Analysts at TD Cowen and Morgan Stanley have slashed price targets to as low as $13–$14, citing structural brand decay and a lack of a clear turnaround plan (Source: Seeking Alpha, Intellectia.AI).
Multiple law firms, including BFA Law and Kirby McInerney LLP, have launched securities fraud investigations following the sudden 18%+ stock drop and guidance cut. Financially, gross margins compressed by 300–350 basis points, and management admitted to losing retail distribution after cutting unprofitable promotions, suggesting a loss of bargaining power with major retailers (Source: Business Wire, StockstoTrade).
SMPL is being squeezed by intense competition in the 'healthy snacking' aisle where Quest no longer holds a unique advantage. Furthermore, the secular shift toward GLP-1 medications (like Ozempic) is fundamentally altering consumer demand for traditional 'diet' products like Atkins. The company also faces execution risks in integrating OWYN, which has struggled with operational hurdles and product quality concerns (Source: MarketBeat, Intellectia.AI).
Sentiment is deteriorating as the Atkins brand loses cultural relevance among younger, health-conscious demographics who view it as a legacy 'fad diet' brand. Additionally, the OWYN brand has suffered from reported product quality issues, which management acknowledged contributed to its 16.8% sales decline and subsequent impairment (Source: Seeking Alpha).
Full Earnings Call Transcript
Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q2 • 2026-04-09
Operator: Greetings, and welcome to The Simply Good Foods Company Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this