SBS
Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESPCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo  SABESP provides water and sewage services to residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers. It provides water supply, sanitary sewage, urban rainwater management and drainage, urban cleaning, and solid waste management services, as well as related activities, including the planning, operation, maintenance, and commercialization of energy. As of December 31, 2021, the company provided water services through 9.8 million w
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 11,200 | 4,480 | -- | 2,128 | -- | 1,120 | -2,128 | 26,589 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 10,700 | 4,227 | -- | 1,819 | -- | 856.0 | -2,140 | 25,469 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 10,100 | 3,788 | -- | 1,515 | -- | 606.0 | -2,020 | 24,613 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 14,800 | 3,996 | -- | 1,776 | -- | 740.0 | -2,664 | 24,007 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 10,300 | 4,172 | -- | 2,060 | -- | 1,236 | -1,751 | 23,267 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 9,800 | 3,920 | -- | 1,764 | -- | 980.0 | -1,764 | 22,031 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 9,200 | 3,496 | -- | 1,472 | -- | 736.0 | -1,656 | 21,051 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 9,778 | 4,015 | 3,331 | 1,716 | 755.4 | 461.6 | -33.3 | 18,965 | 50,817 | 3,524 | 12.9% | 2.8x | 9.2x |
| Est | 2025-Q4 | 13,500 | 3,780 | -- | 1,890 | -- | 1,350 | -2,025 | 20,315 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 10,528 | 3,175 | 3,301 | 2,519 | 906.8 | -3,444 | -4,078 | 12,374 | 39,991 | 3,421 | 16.6% | 1.0x | 7.9x |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 9,425 | 3,909 | 2,581 | 2,159 | 3,173 | 1,593 | -0.0 | 11,650 | 34,926 | 683.1 | 9.6% | 24.1x | 6.8x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 8,965 | 3,768 | 3,311 | 2,136 | 3,181 | 2,899 | -60.7 | 7,926 | 31,284 | 683.5 | 13.8% | 7.8x | 4.0x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 8,426 | 3,349 | 2,844 | 1,482 | 1,101 | -210.1 | -60.7 | 8,137 | 27,638 | 683.5 | 14.1% | 11.1x | 3.4x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 14,399 | 3,660 | 3,347 | 2,258 | 2,664 | 1,213 | -38.0 | 5,382 | 25,258 | 683.5 | 21.9% | 2.9x | 4.0x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 14,997 | 10,442 | 9,849 | 6,112 | 1,570 | -29.3 | -26.2 | 679.2 | 4,376 | 683.7 | 550.7% | 22.5x | 2.8x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 6,749 | 2,959 | 2,193 | 1,209 | 1,773 | 1,614 | -15.9 | 5,149 | 22,273 | 683.5 | 13.8% | 7.1x | 7.0x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 6,560 | 2,370 | 1,662 | 823.3 | 1,397 | -221.7 | -15.9 | 1,246 | 4,395 | 683.5 | 105.7% | 6.9x | 5.9x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 7,266 | 2,852 | -4,172 | 1,186 | 1,857 | 215.2 | -59.0 | 3,265 | 19,536 | 683.5 | -38.4% | 2.9x | 6.5x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 6,453 | 2,358 | 1,709 | 846.3 | 1,632 | 87.8 | -48.0 | 605.2 | 3,793 | 683.5 | 134.7% | 25.5x | 5.6x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 6,155 | 1,674 | 1,030 | 743.7 | 1,118 | 818.5 | -9.3 | 475.6 | 3,873 | 683.5 | 74.0% | 5.2x | 5.1x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 5,698 | 1,982 | 1,393 | 747.2 | 395.3 | -335.4 | -31.0 | 2,486 | 18,296 | 683.5 | 14.2% | 26.0x | 6.8x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 5,932 | 1,721 | 4,645 | 642.2 | 267.8 | 108.1 | -6.4 | 3,545 | 18,959 | 683.5 | 65.4% | 5.8x | 7.8x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 5,988 | 2,048 | 1,540 | 1,081 | 805.3 | 4.3 | -17.7 | 3,421 | 18,778 | 683.5 | 14.1% | 28.6x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 5,265 | 1,480 | 908.2 | 422.5 | 1,147 | 996.8 | -14.2 | 2,611 | 17,727 | 681.4 | 11.2% | 24.4x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 4,870 | 1,663 | 1,145 | 975.5 | 616.8 | -605.8 | -8.6 | 3,407 | 17,628 | 682.2 | 11.4% | 30.0x | -- |
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Sabesp is a compelling post-privatization turnaround story with a natural monopoly in Brazil's wealthiest state, trading at ~10x TTM FCF. However, current FCF margins are likely overstated due to capex timing (near-zero reported capex vs. the R$70B universalization commitment). As capex normalizes to 15-20% of revenue, true FCF margins will compress to 8-12%, making the valuation less compelling at ~15-18x normalized FCF. The privatization under Equatorial should drive real operational improvements (headcount already declining), but the 2026 election cycle creates meaningful tariff/regulatory risk, R$9.1B in contingent liabilities represent a tail risk, and massive infrastructure spending will consume cash for years. At current prices, the stock is reasonably valued — not cheap enough to be a high-conviction long given the political and execution risks, but the monopoly franchise and improving operations provide a decent floor.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.00 | $1.40/$2.10 | 0 | --/$0.75 | 0 |
| $4.50 | $0.95/$1.60 | 1 | --/$0.75 | 0 |
| $5.00 | $0.50/$1.20 | 0 | --/$0.75 | 0 |
| $6.00 | --/$0.75 | 6 | $0.20/$1.15 | 2 |
| $7.00 | --/$0.75 | 10 | $1.05/$1.95 | 3 |
| $8.00 | --/$0.35 | 5 | $2.00/$3.80 | 0 |
| $10.00 | --/$1.20 | 0 | $3.10/$5.80 | 0 |
| $12.50 | --/-- | 0 | --/-- | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are roughly balanced — bought 0.3% of float, sold 0.1%.
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impax Asset Management Group plc | $206M | $10.88 | −$15.1M | −$125M | -0.6% | $14.35B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $186M | $19.33 | +$3.2M | +$83.1M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| Amundi | $160M | $11.49 | −$3.4M | −$19.3M | -0.2% | $366.88B |
| DEUTSCHE BANK AG\ | $113M | $15.80 | −$4.2M | −$75.1M | -0.3% | $302.17B |
| ROYAL LONDON ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD | $81.1M | $30.51 | +$81.1M | +$81.1M | -0.1% | $47.56B |
| MANNING & NAPIER ADVISORS LLC | $80.1M | $23.88 | −$5.4M | +$80.1M | -0.8% | $7.09B |
| LETKO, BROSSEAU & ASSOCIATES INC | $71.7M | $13.21 | +$4.0M | −$115K | +0.7% | $6.20B |
| MACKENZIE FINANCIAL CORP | $66.1M | $10.99 | +$183K | −$6.8M | -0.7% | $83.32B |
| WCM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT/CA | $64.7M | $28.37 | +$53.6M | +$58.4M | -0.3% | $43.79B |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | $62.8M | $15.67 | +$8.3M | +$62.8M | +0.1% | $533.98B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $57.3M | $12.86 | +$1.3M | −$14.1M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $52.8M | $13.81 | −$1.7M | −$1.7M | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $52.7M | $18.94 | +$5.0M | +$13.6M | +0.3% | $193.48B |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $49.0M | $14.52 | +$2.3M | +$4.8M | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS INC | $48.2M | $24.22 | +$848K | +$48.2M | -0.3% | $480.58B |
| DUFF & PHELPS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO | $44.2M | $11.26 | +$78K | +$2.2M | -1.2% | $9.63B |
| UBS Group AG | $43.8M | $21.76 | +$14.2M | +$30.3M | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| Perpetual Ltd | $38.6M | $18.26 | −$1.8M | +$14.4M | -0.4% | $6.50B |
| STRS OHIO | $37.5M | $13.60 | −$6.1M | −$12.2M | -0.3% | $25.21B |
| ASSETMARK, INC | $33.3M | $13.97 | +$3.2M | +$11.1M | -0.1% | $48.53B |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 35.2%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Corporate
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Sabesp: A State-Controlled Utility Drowning in Legal Contingencies
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In March 2026, Sabesp was fined R$ 100,000 by the city of São Sebastião following a mass fish kill in the Maresias River caused by hypochlorite contamination, which the company attributes to legal compliance despite local evidence (YouTube/Record Litoral). Earlier in January 2026, while the company cleared antitrust hurdles for the EMAE control deal, the stock saw a 5.23% daily drop following the announcement (TipRanks). Operational failures also led to a significant R$ 16.9 million fine in August 2025 for water supply interruptions in Agudos (Reddit/r/brasil).
The core bear case centers on the 2026 election cycle in Brazil, which poses a severe regulatory risk. Skeptics argue that political pressure to lower water tariffs ahead of the elections could squeeze margins and reduce the Return on Regulated Asset Base (RoRAB), which has already dropped to ~12.3% from previous highs (Seeking Alpha). Furthermore, the company is committed to a massive R$ 70 billion CapEx plan to universalize services by 2029; failure to meet these aggressive targets while maintaining profitability could lead to liquidity stress or further regulatory penalties.
Recurring environmental and operational failures remain a major red flag, including a massive R$ 22.7 million fine for sewage leaks in the Pinheiros River due to 'expired life' equipment (August 2025). Governance 'poison pill' clauses in the privatization framework may also deter institutional investors, as even minor share purchases by affiliated funds can trigger restrictive control mechanisms (Murray Advogados).
While Sabesp holds a natural monopoly, the primary threat is political and legal rather than commercial. The Workers' Party (PT) and other critics continue to challenge the privatization in court, viewing it as the 'death of public sanitation' (Medium). Any shift in the political landscape during the 2026 elections could lead to attempts to reverse privatization or impose stricter, less favorable concession terms.
Sentiment has soured post-privatization, with residents in areas like São Miguel Paulista reporting constant water shortages and low pressure. Customers have specifically criticized the company's shift toward 'aggressive' and 'threatening' collection tactics for bills delayed by as little as seven days, contrasting sharply with the service quality issues reported on the ground (YouTube/Radio Estação Imprensa).