SAFT
Safety Insurance Group, Inc.Financial Services·Insurance - Property & Casualty
$70.17
$1.0B market cap
Revenue
$630.3M
Free Cash Flow
$52.6M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
8.3%
P/FCF
19.6x
EV/FCF
6.4x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
--
Upside
--
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in the United States. The company's private passenger automobile policies offer coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others, no-fault personal injury coverage for the insured/insured's car occupants, and physical damage coverage for an insured's own vehicle for collision or other perils. It also provides commercial automobile policies that offer insurance for commercial vehicle
2-Year Price History
$72.72+2.6%
Quarterly Financials & Projections
Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 315.0 | -17.2 | -17.9 | -14.3 | -17.0 | -18.9 | -1.8 | 753.4 | 61.1 | 14.5 | -18.5% | -27.9x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 315.3 | 31.9 | 25.4 | 20.1 | 73.6 | 71.4 | -2.1 | 773.9 | 61.9 | 14.7 | 22.9% | 57.2x | -- |
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
Price$70.17
Market Cap$1.0B
Enterprise Value$338M
P/S Ratio1.6x
P/FCF19.6x
EV/FCF6.4x
FCF Margin (TTM)8.3%
FCF Yield5.1%
Dividend Yield (TTM)6.5%
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD
TTM Financial Snapshot
Revenue$630.3M
Net Income$5.8M
Free Cash Flow$52.6M
Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin2.3%
Net Margin0.9%
FCF Margin8.3%
CapEx % of Revenue0.6%
SBC % of Revenue0.4%
ROIC2.2%
WC Change % Rev-5.8%
Interest Coverage12.5x
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Short % of Float--
Short Shares0.2M
Days to Cover2.2
Change (vs Prior)+10.5%
Need at least 2 settlement dates for chart
Employees
Headcount551
Revenue / Employee$1,143,936
Gross Profit / Employee$317,860
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
NEUTRAL
Net flow · —still filing
No float data — flow unavailable.
Ownership composition
Active
42.8%(-4.8% YoY)
200 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
—
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
39.4%(-2.5% YoY)
11 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.3%(-0.1% YoY)
6 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
—
Form 4 — latest per insider
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $162M | $76.30 | −$1.0M | −$1.4M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| SRB Corp | $130M | $62.67 | −$3.5M | −$3.5M | -0.9% | $1.63B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $61.4M | $72.64 | +$61.4M | +$61.4M | — | $1.91T |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $55.1M | $73.94 | +$13.3M | +$12.8M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $51.7M | $67.05 | +$241K | −$1.2M | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $47.3M | $72.64 | +$47.3M | +$47.3M | — | $4.04T |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $29.4M | $73.62 | +$7.2M | +$24.6M | -0.2% | $760.93B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $27.4M | $69.09 | +$1.0M | +$779K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $21.9M | $73.37 | −$269K | +$19.4M | -0.2% | $218.19B |
| ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C. | $21.8M | $76.79 | +$0 | +$6.0M | -0.1% | $64.61B |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | $20.4M | $75.37 | −$1.0M | +$6.7M | -0.2% | $1.47T |
| TimesSquare Capital Management, LLC | $17.2M | $73.11 | −$2.6M | −$24.6M | -1.3% | $5.80B |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $15.7M | $71.66 | −$367K | −$1.1M | +0.7% | $645.81B |
| Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $11.4M | $71.90 | +$4.2M | +$8.4M | +0.3% | $70.36B |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $11.1M | $70.89 | +$529K | −$582K | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $10.2M | $66.30 | +$29K | −$182K | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| Bank of New York Mellon Corp | $10.1M | $76.11 | −$19K | −$5.1M | -0.2% | $543.21B |
| UBS Group AG | $10.1M | $72.71 | +$7.9M | +$7.6M | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $8.9M | $75.79 | −$1.4M | −$1.2M | -0.3% | $1.65T |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $7.5M | $72.59 | +$3.2M | +$2.5M | +0.7% | $193.48B |
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.
Trading behavior
Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
-0.45%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-0.36%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.08%
64 buyers · $0.16B in
Sellers (this Q)
-0.50%
88 sellers · $0.07B out
alpha coverage: 87% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+2.3%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-8.0%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-14.4%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+1.3%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-1.6%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-3.3%
Holder mid (any stock)
-3.5%
Holder rally (any stock)
-5.6%
Biggest decreases this quarter
SRB Corp−$3.5Mα-0.9TABR Capital Management, LLCexited−$2.9MTimesSquare Capital Management, LLC−$2.6Mα-1.3MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC−$1.7Mα-0.5MORGAN STANLEY−$1.4Mα-0.3Y-Intercept (Hong Kong) Ltdexited−$1.1MJPMORGAN CHASE & CO−$1.0Mα-0.2BlackRock, Inc.−$1.0Mα-0.2FIRST MANHATTAN COexited−$997KVerition Fund Management LLCexited−$472K
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 51.8%
BlackRock, Inc.--
SRB Corp--
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC--
STATE STREET CORP--
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP--
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Bank of New York Mellon Corp139KSRB Corp1.8MVICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC—TimesSquare Capital Management, LLC237KCHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC216KGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC405KRobeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.—JPMORGAN CHASE & CO276KAQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC301KADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C.300K
Analyst Coverage
Analyst Coverage
Analyst Ratings
3
Hold: 3Consensus: Hold
Corporate
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$292K
3 txns · 2 insiders · 4,055 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$3.61M
8 txns · 1 insider · 47,809 sh
Recent transactions
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | SELL | SRB CORP | 10 percent owner | 14,151 | $71.12 | $1.01M | $127.64M |
| 2026-03-17 | SELL | SRB CORP | 10 percent owner | 1,199 | $73.06 | $88K | $132.15M |
| 2026-03-02 | SELL | SRB CORP | 10 percent owner | 11,270 | $76.49 | $862K | $138.45M |
| 2026-02-27 | SELL | SRB CORP | 10 percent owner | 235 | $77.82 | $18K | $141.73M |
| 2026-02-26 | SELL | SRB CORP | 10 percent owner | 11,487 | $78.36 | $900K | $142.73M |
| 2026-02-25 | SELL | SRB CORP | 10 percent owner | 2,147 | $78.29 | $168K | $143.49M |
| 2026-02-24 | SELL | SRB CORP | 10 percent owner | 3,231 | $77.14 | $249K | $141.54M |
| 2026-02-23 | SELL | SRB CORP | 10 percent owner | 4,089 | $77.48 | $317K | $142.42M |
| 2025-09-18 | BUY | Hiltpold Glenn | officer: VP OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES | 55 | $71.73 | $4K | $940K |
| 2025-09-05 | BUY | Langwell Dennis J. | director | 2,000 | $72.39 | $145K | $579K |
| 2025-08-11 | BUY | Langwell Dennis J. | director | 2,000 | $71.49 | $143K | $429K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
9.4%retail-2.9pp
21.2%dark-3.8pp
week of 2026-04-13
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Safety Insurance Group: Institutional Stability Lacking Forensic Red Flags
Overall Risk
2/10
Fraud
1/10
Dilution
1/10
Insolvency
2/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
3/10
Legal
2/10
Audit Warnings
1/10
Hidden Upside
2/10
Contextually Acceptable
10/10