RNA
Atrium Therapeutics, Inc.Atrium Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on delivering ribonucleic acid (RNA) therapeutics to the heart to transform the care for people living with cardiomyopathies. The company's development stage product candidates include ATR 1072, a siRNA-based therapy targeting PRKAG2 for the treatment of PRKAG2 syndrome; and ATR 1086, a siRNA-based therapy targeting PLN for the treatment of PLN cardiomyopathy. It also focuses on pipeline to treat a range of genetic and cardiac disea
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 5.0 | -250.0 | -- | -245.0 | -- | -240.0 | -7.0 | -1,456 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 4.0 | -248.0 | -- | -244.0 | -- | -240.0 | -6.4 | -1,216 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 3.5 | -245.0 | -- | -241.5 | -- | -238.0 | -6.3 | -975.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 3.0 | -234.0 | -- | -231.0 | -- | -225.0 | -6.0 | -737.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 2.5 | -220.0 | -- | -217.5 | -- | -212.5 | -5.5 | -512.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 2.0 | -210.0 | -- | -208.0 | -- | -204.0 | -5.0 | -300.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 3.0 | -195.0 | -- | -192.0 | -- | -189.0 | -5.4 | -96.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 2.5 | -180.0 | -- | -177.5 | -- | -175.0 | -5.0 | 92.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 19.6 | -17.1 | -17.3 | -16.6 | -31.1 | -33.2 | -2.1 | 267.9 | 2.7 | 17.1 | <-999% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.9 | -231.9 | -254.5 | -237.1 | -169.8 | -175.3 | -5.5 | 1,697 | 94.6 | 137.7 | -73.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 12.5 | -173.4 | -188.8 | -174.4 | -156.2 | -160.1 | -3.9 | 1,876 | 50.0 | 137.9 | -48.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 3.9 | -170.3 | -171.1 | -157.3 | -199.7 | -203.0 | -3.3 | 1,183 | 5.1 | 129.6 | -81.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 1.6 | -130.7 | -131.5 | -115.8 | -124.8 | -128.6 | -3.8 | 1,380 | 6.0 | 129.2 | -52.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 3.0 | -120.3 | -121.0 | -102.3 | -99.9 | -103.8 | -3.9 | 1,502 | 6.8 | 128.5 | -43.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 2.3 | -97.4 | -98.1 | -80.4 | -65.6 | -67.3 | -1.7 | 1,589 | 7.6 | 123.4 | -32.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 2.0 | -81.9 | -82.6 | -70.8 | -65.0 | -65.5 | -0.5 | 1,299 | 8.4 | 106.9 | -35.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 3.5 | -76.6 | -77.2 | -68.9 | -70.4 | -71.3 | -0.9 | 915.9 | 9.2 | 87.2 | -55.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 2.2 | -66.1 | -66.7 | -60.4 | 16.5 | 15.6 | -0.9 | 595.4 | 9.9 | 76.1 | -114.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 2.8 | -58.1 | -58.6 | -52.4 | -36.8 | -37.7 | -0.9 | 542.6 | 10.6 | 74.1 | -92.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 2.3 | -52.1 | -52.6 | -47.0 | -49.8 | -50.4 | -0.6 | 576.5 | 9.5 | 71.4 | -70.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 2.2 | -57.2 | -57.6 | -52.4 | -49.0 | -50.8 | -1.8 | 586.3 | 10.1 | 70.4 | -75.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 2.8 | -52.8 | -53.2 | -50.5 | -39.2 | -40.0 | -0.9 | 610.7 | 10.7 | 57.3 | -64.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 2.5 | -44.6 | -44.9 | -43.6 | -32.0 | -31.9 | -0.1 | 405.6 | 11.3 | 53.1 | -137.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 2.2 | -46.0 | -46.3 | -45.7 | -35.6 | -36.9 | -1.3 | 398.2 | 11.8 | 49.9 | -141.7% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 1.8 | -34.2 | -34.5 | -34.2 | -29.6 | -30.3 | -0.8 | 397.1 | 11.9 | 48.3 | -102.9% | -- | -- |
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
This is a merger arbitrage situation, not a fundamental investment. Novartis has agreed to acquire Avidity at $72.00/share in cash, yet the stock trades at ~$14.80 — an 80%+ discount to deal price. This extraordinary spread implies the market assigns only ~15-20% probability to deal completion. While regulatory and ROFN risks are real, Novartis is a sophisticated acquirer with deep antitrust experience, and the AOC platform validated by multiple clinical readouts provides strategic rationale. Even in a deal-break scenario, $1.7B in cash (~$12/share on 138M diluted shares) provides a meaningful floor. The risk/reward is heavily skewed: ~$57 upside to deal price vs ~$3 downside to cash floor. The SpinCo (Bryce Therapeutics) distribution provides additional optionality. The massive spread suggests the market is either mispricing the deal probability or there is material non-public information suggesting deal failure — but absent concrete evidence of the latter, this represents a compelling asymmetric opportunity.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20.00 | $51.00/$56.00 | 1 | --/$5.00 | 0 |
| $25.00 | $46.00/$51.00 | 0 | --/$5.00 | 40 |
| $30.00 | $41.00/$46.00 | 0 | --/$5.00 | 15 |
| $35.00 | $36.00/$41.00 | 0 | --/$0.10 | 38 |
| $40.00 | $31.00/$36.00 | 0 | --/$0.05 | 142 |
| $45.00 | $26.00/$31.00 | 10 | --/$0.05 | 572 |
| $50.00 | $21.00/$26.00 | 0 | --/$0.05 | 22 |
| $55.00 | $16.00/$21.00 | 533 | --/$5.00 | 24 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 81.8% of float, sold 0.0%. 22 filers moved >1% of shares (22 buying, 0 selling).
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | $20.8M | $13.37 | +$20.8M | +$20.8M | — | $864.93B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $16.1M | $13.37 | +$16.1M | +$16.1M | — | $5.69T |
| RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | $11.6M | $13.37 | +$11.6M | +$11.6M | — | $9.44B |
| TIG Advisors, LLC | $8.1M | $13.37 | +$8.1M | +$8.1M | — | $2.09B |
| Pentwater Capital Management LP | $8.1M | $13.37 | +$8.1M | +$8.1M | — | $14.07B |
| O'Connor Alternative Investments LLC | $7.7M | $13.37 | +$7.7M | +$7.7M | — | $1.17B |
| Sessa Capital IM, L.P. | $7.4M | $13.37 | +$7.4M | +$7.4M | — | $5.26B |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $4.7M | $13.37 | +$4.7M | +$4.7M | — | $760.93B |
| FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $4.7M | $13.37 | +$4.7M | +$4.7M | — | $15.27B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $4.3M | $13.37 | +$4.3M | +$4.3M | — | $1.61T |
| 683 Capital Management, LLC | $4.0M | $13.37 | +$4.0M | +$4.0M | — | $1.02B |
| Bellevue Group AG | $3.5M | $13.37 | +$3.5M | +$3.5M | — | $4.20B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $3.4M | $13.37 | +$3.4M | +$3.4M | — | $2.89T |
| Weiss Asset Management LP | $3.2M | $13.37 | +$3.2M | +$3.2M | — | $4.24B |
| CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | $3.2M | $13.37 | +$3.2M | +$3.2M | — | $2.75B |
| BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $3.1M | $13.37 | +$3.1M | +$3.1M | — | $48.01B |
| Squarepoint Ops LLC | $3.1M | $13.37 | +$3.1M | +$3.1M | — | $46.27B |
| Arbiter Partners Capital Management LLC | $3.1M | $13.37 | +$3.1M | +$3.1M | — | $147M |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $2.6M | $13.37 | +$2.6M | +$2.6M | — | $127.40B |
| ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C. | $2.5M | $13.37 | +$2.5M | +$2.5M | — | $64.61B |
Trading behavior
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 35.2%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Related Stocks
Investors who own this also own
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| Ticker | Name | Co-holders | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOLX | Hologic, Inc. | 3 | 72.18× |
Analyst Coverage
Corporate
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Avidity Biosciences (RNA): Strategic Exit via Novartis Merger Cloaks Massive Operational Cash Burn and Dilutive Financing
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
In late 2025, Novartis announced a definitive agreement to acquire Avidity Biosciences for approximately $12 billion ($72.00 per share) in cash. While the deal validates the AOC platform, several analysts (Chardan, TD Cowen, and RBC Capital) downgraded the stock to 'Neutral' or 'Hold' in late 2025 and early 2026, noting that the stock is now trading near the acquisition price, effectively capping further upside. Additionally, the company reported a massive FY2025 net loss of $684.6 million on meager revenues of just $18.8 million, highlighting a widening gap between R&D spend and commercial viability.
The bear case centers on 'merger arbitrage' risks and the potential for the Novartis deal to fail under regulatory scrutiny or due to due-diligence hurdles, which would cause the stock to crater back to pre-acquisition levels. From a fundamental standpoint, Avidity remains deep in the red with an accumulated deficit of $1.6 billion and a burn rate that expanded by 40% year-over-year. Skeptics argue the current $11B+ valuation is detached from reality given the lack of a commercial-stage product and the 'leapfrog' potential of competitors like Dyne Therapeutics, which may deliver superior efficacy in the DM1 market.
Safety signals remain a persistent concern; historical data for del-zota (DMD) showed occurrences of anaphylaxis and infusion-related reactions that led to patient dropouts. Furthermore, the Phase 1/2 MARINA trial for del-desiran reported two serious adverse events (SAEs), one of which was drug-related. Recent SEC filings also reveal notable insider selling, with over 58,000 shares ($4.23 million) offloaded by top executives in the last quarter, signaling a possible lack of confidence in further appreciation beyond the Novartis offer.
Avidity faces intense pressure from established giants like Sarepta Therapeutics and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, but the most direct threat comes from Dyne Therapeutics. Analysts suggest Dyne’s DYNE-101 could potentially outperform Avidity's del-desiran in the Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 (DM1) space. In the DMD market, Sarepta’s existing approvals for exon-skipping therapies create a high barrier to entry and limited market share opportunities for Avidity's late-stage candidates.
Sentiment among institutional investors has shifted from aggressive growth to cautious holding. While the medical community is 'intrigued' by the dystrophin production data, patient advocacy groups remain wary of the safety profile regarding infusion reactions. The consensus 'Hold' rating from over 12 major firms reflects a sentiment that the 'easy money' has been made and that the stock is currently a high-risk play on merger completion rather than clinical breakthroughs.