Passage Bio, Inc., a genetic medicines company, develops transformative therapies for central nervous system diseases. It develops PBGM01, which utilizes a proprietary, AAVhu68 capsid to deliver to the brain and peripheral tissues a functional GLB1 gene encoding lysosomal acid beta-galactosidase for infantile GM1; PBFT02, which utilizes an AAV1 capsid to deliver to the brain a functional granulin (GRN) and gene encoding progranulin (PGRN) for the treatment of FTD-GRN; and PBKR03, which utilizes
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 33.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 33.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 33.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 33.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 33.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 33.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 33.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | -0.0 | 33.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | -8.8 | -8.9 | -7.6 | -13.0 | -13.0 | -0.0 | 33.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | -617.2% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -10.2 | -13.9 | -13.0 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -0.0 | 46.3 | 24.0 | 3.2 | -230.7% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 0.0 | -7.4 | -8.7 | -7.8 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -0.0 | 52.8 | 24.3 | 3.2 | -142.3% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 0.0 | -9.2 | -10.3 | -9.4 | -6.3 | -6.3 | -0.0 | 57.6 | 24.7 | 3.2 | -167.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 0.0 | -13.6 | -16.5 | -15.4 | -13.9 | -13.9 | -0.0 | 63.4 | 25.1 | 3.1 | -262.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 0.0 | -12.3 | -14.3 | -12.7 | -8.4 | -8.5 | -0.0 | 76.8 | 25.5 | 3.1 | -224.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 0.0 | -15.2 | -20.7 | -19.3 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -0.0 | 84.8 | 25.8 | 3.1 | -320.7% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 0.0 | -16.1 | -17.4 | -16.0 | -13.1 | -13.1 | -0.0 | 91.8 | 26.2 | 3.1 | -265.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 0.0 | -17.2 | -18.1 | -16.7 | -18.9 | -18.9 | -0.0 | 104.5 | 26.5 | 2.8 | -272.7% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 0.0 | -17.6 | -18.5 | -16.8 | -19.5 | -19.5 | -0.0 | 114.3 | 26.3 | 2.8 | -280.6% | -11.4x | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 0.0 | -22.3 | -28.7 | -27.1 | -19.2 | -19.2 | -0.0 | 132.8 | 26.5 | 2.7 | -432.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 0.0 | -24.4 | -25.4 | -23.9 | -17.1 | -17.2 | -0.1 | 151.5 | 26.7 | 2.7 | -379.8% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 0.0 | -23.6 | -35.9 | -34.3 | -22.5 | -22.5 | -0.0 | 167.8 | 27.0 | 2.7 | -532.5% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 0.0 | -21.2 | -28.2 | -27.1 | -24.0 | -27.5 | -3.5 | 189.6 | 27.1 | 2.7 | -315.6% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 0.0 | -25.1 | -27.5 | -26.7 | -23.4 | -23.6 | -0.2 | 213.8 | 27.3 | 2.7 | -185.0% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 0.0 | -38.9 | -39.8 | -39.5 | -26.1 | -26.9 | -0.8 | 239.3 | 27.5 | 2.7 | -189.1% | -- | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 0.0 | -40.4 | -42.8 | -42.8 | -44.7 | -46.9 | -2.2 | 267.1 | 27.6 | 2.7 | -144.0% | -- | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27.60 | — | — | -126 | — | — | n/m | — |
| 2023 | 20.20 | — | — | -88 | — | — | n/m | — |
| 2024 | 11.34 | — | — | -61 | — | — | n/m | — |
| 2025 | 11.80 | — | — | -40 | n/m | n/m | n/m | — |
| TTM | — | — | — | -36 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026E | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 2027E | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Passage Bio is a deeply distressed, pre-revenue clinical-stage biotech that has been forced into survival mode — executing a 1-for-20 reverse split to avoid Nasdaq delisting, cutting 55% of its workforce, and offloading programs to an unproven counterparty (Gemma) whose payments it cannot even recognize as revenue. With $46.3M in cash, a quarterly burn of ~$6-7M post-restructuring, and a $691M accumulated deficit, the company is a binary bet on PBFT02 clinical data for FTD. The 1H 2026 data readout is the make-or-break catalyst. If data is strong, a partnership or acquisition could justify multiples of the current $27M market cap. If data disappoints or safety signals persist (prior SAEs including venous sinus thrombosis), the stock likely goes to zero as the company runs out of cash by early 2027. DCF is meaningless here — this is an option valuation. The risk/reward is poor for most investors given the high probability of total capital loss, though the asymmetric upside on positive data keeps this from being a strong sell.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Cash Runway
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx1 Capital Management LP | $4.9M | $8.03 | +$0 | +$4.9M | +3.0% | $633M |
| Vestal Point Capital, LP | $2.4M | $8.03 | +$0 | +$2.4M | -0.1% | $3.58B |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $1.0M | $8.23 | +$193K | +$1.0M | +1.2% | $63.91B |
| Eversept Partners, LP | $1.0M | $11.64 | +$42K | +$1.0M | -0.3% | $1.52B |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $895K | $7.85 | +$895K | +$895K | — | $4.04T |
| Yiheng Capital Management, L.P. | $676K | $9.42 | +$407K | +$676K | -0.2% | $231M |
| Ikarian Capital, LLC | $535K | $7.85 | +$535K | +$535K | -8.8% | $698M |
| Erste Asset Management GmbH | $527K | $8.03 | +$0 | +$527K | -1.1% | $10.79B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $325K | $8.36 | +$78K | +$325K | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $224K | $8.03 | −$2K | +$224K | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| UBS Group AG | $216K | $8.05 | +$205K | +$216K | -0.3% | $562.11B |
| ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $189K | $8.03 | +$0 | +$189K | -0.5% | $70.48B |
| Verdad Advisers, LP | $174K | $7.85 | +$174K | +$174K | +1.5% | $88.8M |
| DIADEMA PARTNERS LP | $153K | $7.85 | +$153K | +$153K | +2.6% | $224M |
| BOOTHBAY FUND MANAGEMENT, LLC | $148K | $7.85 | +$148K | +$148K | -0.4% | $4.25B |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $134K | $7.85 | +$134K | +$134K | — | $395.83B |
| XTX Topco Ltd | $99K | $7.85 | +$99K | +$99K | -1.9% | $5.74B |
| FIDUCIARY TRUST CO | $84K | $8.03 | +$0 | +$84K | -0.1% | $8.46B |
| Persistent Asset Partners Ltd | $39K | $7.85 | +$39K | +$39K | +3.6% | $257M |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $21K | $11.50 | −$13K | +$21K | -0.3% | $1.65T |
Trading behavior
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 74.2%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Analyst Coverage
Corporate
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | SELL | Borthwick Kathleen | officer: CFO | 2,062 | $18.44 | $38K | $100K |
| 2026-01-08 | SELL | Chou William | director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO | 4,076 | $18.44 | $75K | $120K |
| 2025-09-15 | BUY | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | 10 percent owner | 11,900 | $6.99 | $83K | $4.36M |
| 2025-09-12 | BUY | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | 10 percent owner | 19,783 | $6.99 | $138K | $4.28M |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | 10 percent owner | 325 | $6.96 | $2K | $4.12M |
| 2025-07-24 | BUY | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | 10 percent owner | 66,423 | $5.71 | $379K | $3.38M |
| 2025-07-23 | BUY | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | 10 percent owner | 49,302 | $5.74 | $283K | $3.02M |
| 2025-07-22 | BUY | Lynx1 Capital Management LP | 10 percent owner | 13,123 | $5.44 | $71K | $2.59M |
| 2025-06-26 | SELL | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | 10 percent owner | 213,257 | $0.33 | $70K | $2.00M |
| 2025-06-25 | SELL | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | 10 percent owner | 138,800 | $0.33 | $46K | $2.07M |
| 2025-06-24 | SELL | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | 10 percent owner | 231,600 | $0.35 | $81K | $2.25M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Passage Bio: Survival Mode and Reverse Splits in the Genetic Medicine Graveyard
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
On March 3, 2026, Passage Bio reported significant clinical progress in its Phase 1/2 upliFT-D trial for frontotemporal dementia (FTD). The company successfully enrolled the first three patients in Cohort 3 (FTD-GRN) and dosed the first patient in Cohort 4 (FTD-C9orf72). Management confirmed it is on track to release updated interim safety and biomarker data in 1H 2026 and expects to select a clinical candidate for its Huntington’s disease program in 2H 2026 (Source: Passage Bio Investor Relations, GlobeNewswire).
Bears focus on the company's precarious financial position, with a net loss of $45.5 million in 2025 and a cash runway that only extends to 1Q 2027. Previous safety signals, including three Serious Adverse Events (SAEs) such as venous sinus thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, forced a trial pause and protocol amendment, leading to skepticism about the safety profile of their lead candidate, PBFT02 (Source: Nasdaq, Intellectia.AI).
The most significant red flag is the sharp decline in cash reserves, dropping from $76.8 million to $46.3 million in one year. Additionally, major analysts like Canaccord Genuity recently slashed their price targets by over 65% (from $67 to $23), signaling a dramatic cooling of long-term valuation expectations despite maintaining a 'Buy' rating (Source: GuruFocus, Stock Titan).
As a focused CNS gene therapy player, Passage Bio faces competition from larger pharmaceutical companies and biotech firms developing treatments for FTD and Huntington's. The 'one-time' nature of their gene therapy puts immense pressure on a single clinical success, as they lack a diversified revenue stream or a late-stage commercial portfolio (Source: TipRanks).
While institutional sentiment is cautious due to valuation cuts, there is a contrarian 'squeeze' potential highlighted by a 20.22% short sale ratio as of March 2026. Analysts maintain a consensus 'Outperform' rating with an average price target of ~$30.80, representing a massive ~260% upside from current levels. Technical indicators are mixed but show recent bullish momentum as the price crossed its 5-day SMA following the March earnings update (Source: Fintel, Zacks, StockInvest.us).