Stocks/ONB

ONB

Old National Bancorp
Financial Services·Banks - Regional
$24.01
$9.3B market cap
Claude Rating
6/10SLIGHT BUY
Revenue
$4.0B
Free Cash Flow
$750.5M
Rev Growth
+38.0%
FCF Margin
18.8%
P/FCF
12.4x
EV/FCF
19.6x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
10.1x
Fair Value
$26.00
Upside
+8.3%

Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides various financial services to individual and commercial customers in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, including noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking, negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits; and offers loans, such as home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, consumer loans, commercial loans, commercial real estate loan

2-Year Price History

$23.94+47.7%
$16$18$20$22$24volMay 24Sep 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Est2028-Q11,080372.6--237.6--140.4-18.43,797----------
Est2027-Q41,095394.2--257.3--230.0-16.43,657----------
Est2027-Q31,085385.2--249.6--206.2-17.43,427----------
Est2027-Q21,070374.5--240.8--171.2-18.23,220----------
Est2027-Q11,045355.3--224.7--125.4-18.83,049----------
Est2026-Q41,060376.3--243.8--212.0-17.02,924----------
Est2026-Q31,050367.5--236.3--189.0-17.92,712----------
Est2026-Q21,035357.1--227.7--155.3-18.62,523----------
Act2026-Q1999.7295.3295.3233.7206.1193.3-12.92,3687,823388.17.7%1.0x13.0x
Act2025-Q41,007340.1304.3216.6159.2137.3-21.91,8267,451389.68.4%1.1x13.3x
Act2025-Q31,021258.8232.6182.6341.2355.8-14.61,9266,766357.36.6%0.8x14.7x
Act2025-Q2957.5181.2155.7125.472.964.1-8.82,1177,346340.34.3%0.6x15.7x
Act2025-Q1724.2197.9181.6144.7108.2102.4-5.88,9945,447321.07.1%0.8x4.0x
Act2024-Q4757.9203.0186.1153.9235.8229.0-6.88,6865,412318.87.8%0.8x3.3x
Act2024-Q3774.1202.0185.1143.8121.3115.7-5.78,6245,449317.37.2%0.7x3.0x
Act2024-Q2750.9173.2156.5121.2161.0151.6-9.48,3396,085316.55.8%0.6x4.1x
Act2024-Q1673.5167.9152.8120.3104.295.8-8.57,7315,331292.26.7%0.7x3.3x
Act2023-Q4689.9185.3168.7132.572.862.5-10.37,8885,331292.07.4%0.8x1.9x
Act2023-Q3657.5208.0192.2147.9228.8218.1-10.78,0785,756291.78.1%1.0x2.0x
Act2023-Q2626.5217.8202.4155.0161.0154.1-7.07,6986,240291.37.9%1.3x3.0x
Act2023-Q1566.3203.3188.0146.653.743.2-10.57,8016,946292.86.8%1.8x5.2x
Act2022-Q4622.9279.0262.0200.7127.1118.0-9.27,5025,586293.111.3%4.2x4.9x
Act2022-Q3486.9195.3179.0140.2248.5237.2-11.37,6654,472292.59.6%6.5x--
Act2022-Q2443.5157.1140.0115.0277.8269.9-7.98,3664,600291.97.5%9.3x--
Act2022-Q1300.8-23.7-36.3-27.6161.1151.5-9.610,7274,582227.0-1.8%-1.9x--

AI Analysis

LLM Evaluations

Claude6/10SLIGHT BUYFV: $26.00

Old National Bancorp has executed well on the Bremer integration, achieving peer-leading efficiency ratios (~45-46%) and record loan pipelines. The organic growth story is compelling with 8% annualized loan growth in Q1 2026 and a $5.5B pipeline. However, the stock trades at a premium to regional bank peers (~15.5x P/E vs 11.9x sector average), CRE concentration at ~47% of loans represents meaningful risk in a stressed rate environment, and the 22% dilution from the Bremer deal is substantial. Customer satisfaction deterioration post-merger, the Bell Bank talent poaching incident, and NSF fee litigation add operational and legal risk. The bank is well-capitalized (CET1 >11%) and management is credible, but much of the good news appears priced in at current levels. This is a solid franchise trading at a slight premium — decent hold but not a compelling risk/reward setup for new money.

Catalyst Full realization of Bremer synergies flowing through to 2026 earnings, potential favorable capital rule changes adding ~100bps to CET1, and continued aggressive share buybacks reducing dilution overhang. Strong C&I pipeline conversion could drive upside to loan growth guidance.
Risk CRE concentration at ~47% of loans is the single biggest risk — a deterioration in commercial real estate values or rising defaults in this segment could materially impair earnings and require significant reserve builds, particularly given the Bremer portfolio that was only recently acquired and is still being seasoned under ONB's credit framework.
Trend
IMPROVING
Mgmt
8/10
Quarter
8/10
Exp. Move
+3.0%

Latest Earnings Call

Transcript Summary

Old National Bancorp (ONB) delivered a strong Q1 2026, beating earnings estimates with an adjusted EPS of $0.61. The bank showcased exceptional operational discipline, achieving a record efficiency ratio of 45.7% and fully realizing $111 million in cost synergies from the Bremer merger. Organic loan growth was a standout, driven by a 16.9% annualized increase in C&I loans and a record $5.5 billion pipeline. Despite a volatile rate environment, the bank successfully reduced deposit costs by 8 basis points and maintained a healthy CET1 ratio above 11%. Capital return remained a priority, with $151 million returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Credit quality remains stable, with non-PCD charge-offs at just 19 basis points. Management maintained its full-year guidance, suggesting that loan growth and fee income may hit the upper end of projected ranges. The company is leaning into organic growth through aggressive talent recruitment and AI investments to enhance scalability. CEO Jim Ryan expressed high confidence in the bank’s ability to navigate the current macro environment, emphasizing a straightforward community banking model that is well-positioned for continued outperformance.

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$24.01
Market Cap$9.3B
Enterprise Value$14.7B
P/S Ratio2.3x
P/FCF12.4x
EV/FCF19.6x
FCF Margin (TTM)18.8%
FCF Yield8.1%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution20.9%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$4.0B
Net Income$758.3M
Free Cash Flow$750.5M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+38.0%
EBITDA Margin27.0%
Net Margin19.0%
FCF Margin18.8%
CapEx % of Revenue1.5%
SBC % of Revenue0.6%
ROIC6.7%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage0.8x

DCF Fair Value Estimate

$7.27
-69.7% upside
Fair Enterprise Value$8.3B
− Net Debt$5.5B
= Fair Equity$2.8B
Revenue Growth3.3% → 3.5%
FCF Margin18.8% → 17.0%
Discount Rate13.0%
Terminal EV/FCF13.0x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float7.9%
Short Shares26.9M
Days to Cover7.8
Change (vs Prior)+11.7%
Short % Float History
7.90%-3.90pp
4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%04-3007-1509-1511-1401-1504-30

Options

Call IV (ATM)--
Put IV (ATM)34%
ATM Spread--
Call $OI (near money)$11K
Put $OI (near money)$3K
ATM ExpiryJuly 17, 2026 (56D)
ATM Strike$25.0
Major Expirations3
Near-money chain · July 17, 2026
StrikeCall Bid/AskCall OIPut Bid/AskPut OI
$12.50$10.20/$13.600--/$0.950
$15.00$7.90/$11.100--/$0.950
$17.50$5.40/$8.600--/$0.950
$20.00$3.10/$6.100--/$1.150
$22.50$0.50/$3.900--/$1.900
$25.00--/$1.902$0.40/$3.201
$30.00--/$0.950$5.20/$7.100
$35.00--/$0.200$10.10/$12.400
Snapshot: 2026-05-22

Forward Projections & Estimates

NTM Revenue Growth+5.1%
Forward FCF Margin16.3%
Forward EBITDA Margin34.8%
Forward P/FCF13.6x
Forward EV/FCF21.6x
Forward Int. Coverage1.2x
Model Risk Score5/10
Bankruptcy Odds2%
Est. Borrow Rate5.5%
Terminal EV/FCF13.0x
LT Growth3.5%
LT FCF Margin17.0%

Employees

Headcount4,028
Revenue / Employee$989,372
Gross Profit / Employee$637,877
2022: 3,967 → 2023: 3,940 → 2024: 4,066 → 2025: 0

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NET BUYING

In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 5.6% of float, sold 3.8%.

Net flow · Q1 2026still filing
+1.8% of float (net)
Bought 5.6% · Sold 3.8%
422 filers reported (last quarter: 398)

Ownership composition

Active
57.6%(+12.1% YoY)
406 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
22.2%(-5.4% YoY)
6 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.4%(+0.2% YoY)
7 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
0.8%
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$990M$18.49+$50.9M+$108M-0.2%$5.69T
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/$944M$20.72−$43.5M+$906M+0.1%$5.95B
FMR LLC$774M$20.68−$2.2M+$215M+0.3%$1.89T
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$395M$15.39+$6.9M+$13.1M-0.4%$480.92B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$348M$15.96−$9.8M−$13.2M-0.2%$2.89T
FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.$333M$14.55−$18.7M−$63.8M-0.0%$29.55B
NOMURA ASSET MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL INC.$212M$22.18−$15.1M+$212M+1.4%$58.02B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$212M$16.49−$2.1M+$25.7M+2.3%$1.61T
MORGAN STANLEY$170M$18.94+$19.8M+$99.7M-0.3%$1.65T
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC$150M$14.93−$17.9M−$123M+0.3%$193.48B
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP$141M$20.23−$17.4M+$55.4M-0.9%$139.72B
MANUFACTURERS LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY, THE$121M$20.84−$1.6M+$42.1M-0.2%$113.45B
Verition Fund Management LLC$113M$17.89+$6.9M+$88.3M-0.3%$9.73B
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$108M$17.42+$1.7M+$27.6M+1.0%$645.81B
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC$108M$17.09−$15.3M−$54.3M-0.2%$156.12B
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$104M$18.59−$5.0M+$41.6M-0.2%$760.93B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$94.5M$16.81+$3.4M+$4.1M-0.2%$755.34B
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/$93.5M$16.98+$2.3M+$22.7M-0.1%$1.36T
WILLIAM BLAIR INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC$86.1M$18.39−$45.6M−$44.2M-0.4%$30.11B
Fisher Asset Management, LLC$82.1M$15.09−$4.5M−$9.6M+0.1%$294.89B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
+0.02%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.02%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
-0.31%
179 buyers · $0.31B in
Sellers (this Q)
+0.12%
135 sellers · $0.37B out
alpha coverage: 100% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
-3.7%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
-5.0%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-18.3%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+2.1%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-3.1%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-4.6%
Holder mid (any stock)
-2.9%
Holder rally (any stock)
-4.3%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

033.4M66.9M100.3M133.8M$13$15$18$20$222021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/42.7MFMR LLC35.0MFULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.15.1MAMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC6.8MMACQUARIE GROUP LTDNOMURA ASSET MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL INC.9.6MMORGAN STANLEY7.7MWELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP704KVICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC4.9MFIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP6.4M

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Investors who own this also own

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BCALSouthern California Bancorp3317.60×
FNBF.N.B. Corporation4317.60×
OSBCOld Second Bancorp, Inc.3272.23×
CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc.4169.39×
COLBColumbia Banking System, Inc.4158.80×
HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated382.85×

Analyst Coverage

Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (4 analysts)$27.251350.0%
Last Year (13 analysts)$27.001250.0%
Current Price$24.01

Corporate

Executive Compensation (2011-2013)

Direct Pay$13.1M
Incentive & Other$3.8M
Total Compensation$16.9M
% of Revenue0.2%

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$751K
4 txns · 3 insiders · 71,741 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$50.00M
1 txn · 1 insider · 1,926,782 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-02-26SELLOtto Bremer Trust10 percent owner1,926,782$25.95$50.00M$1.07B
2026-02-20SELLKitchell Ryan Cdirector4,003$0.00$0$0
2026-02-04SELLSandgren James Aofficer: CEO, COMMERCIAL BANKING31,230$0.00$0$0
2026-02-03SELLChulos Nicholas Jofficer: Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec30,000$25.05$751K$512K
2025-12-15SELLKitchell Ryan Cdirector6,508$0.00$0$0

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

17.4%retail-1.7pp
23.2%dark+1.8pp
week of 2026-04-13
0%20%40%60%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Segments

By Product (2021-Q4)
Wealth Management Services$9.8M+6%
Deposit Account$9.1M+5%
Investment Advisory, Management and Administrative Service$6.3M+13%
Debit Card And A T M Fees$5.1M+0%
Merchant Processing Services$0.9M+20%
Safe Deposit Box Services$0.2M+0%
Insurance Premiums And Commissions$0.0M+12%
Gain Loss On Other Real Estate Owned$0.0M+150%

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

Old National Bancorp: Multi-Tiered Capital Structure Metadata Analysis

Overall Risk
2/10
Fraud
1/10
Dilution
3/10
Insolvency
2/10
Earnings Overstated
1/10
Hidden Liabilities
1/10
Legal
1/10
Audit Warnings
1/10
Hidden Upside
2/10
Contextually Acceptable
10/10

Counter-Thesis

Counter-Thesis & Recent News

📰 Recent News

Old National is embroiled in a significant legal battle after suing Bell Bank in December 2025, alleging a 'coup d'état' where eight senior employees at key Minnesota branches resigned en masse to join Bell Bank, allegedly poaching trade secrets and customers. Additionally, the bank's Q1 2026 earnings outlook shows a modest sequential decline in EPS ($0.60 vs $0.62 in Q4 2025) as it struggles to integrate its massive $1.4B Bremer Bank acquisition amid rising merger-related expenses and a strategic realignment of commercial leadership (April 2026).

🐻 Bear Case

The primary bear case rests on ONB's heavy concentration in Commercial Real Estate (CRE), which accounts for approximately 46.6% of its total loan portfolio ($22.08B). With high interest rates threatening a wave of CRE defaults in 2025-2026, ONB faces significant downside risk. Furthermore, the stock trades at a richer P/E multiple (approx. 15.5x) compared to the US bank sector average (11.9x), making it vulnerable to a correction if merger synergies from the Bremer deal fail to materialize as projected.

🚩 Red Flags

Regulatory and legal risks include a late 2024 class action investigation into 'improper' non-sufficient fund (NSF) fees, a practice many peers have abandoned. The sudden loss of senior commercial banking staff in Minnesota suggests internal cultural or retention issues. Furthermore, the bank's reliance on high-cost brokered deposits (6.1% of total) and persistent exposure to regional economic volatility in the Midwest are significant operational warning signs.

⚔️ Competitive Threats

ONB faces intense pressure from 'money-center' giants like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, which are leveraging superior digital platforms to poach affluent retail and corporate clients. Concurrently, agile fintechs and digital-only banks are compressing Net Interest Margins (NIM) by offering higher deposit rates, forcing ONB to choose between losing liquidity or sacrificing profitability.

💬 Customer Sentiment

Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, with a 2.3/5 star rating on major consumer platforms. Recent reviews (late 2025–early 2026) cite a sharp decline in service quality and staffing following the First Midwest and Bremer mergers. Common complaints include 'horrendous' wait times (over 2 hours), technical failures with the mobile app/web portal, and rigid policies regarding fraud disputes and promotional bonuses.

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Full Earnings Call Transcript — Q1 • 2026-04-22

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Old National Bancorp First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded and has been made accessible to the public in accordance with the SEC's Regulation FD. Corresponding presentation slides can be found on the Investor Relations page at oldnational.com and will be archived there for 12 months. Management would like to remind everyone that certain statements on today's call may be forward-looking in nature and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to differ from those discussed. The company refers you to its forward-looking statement legend in the earnings release and presentation slides. The company's risk factors are fully disclosed and discussed within its SEC filings. In addition, certain slides containing non-GAAP measures, which management believes provide more appropriate comparisons. These non-GAAP measures are intended to assist investors' understanding of performance trends. Reconciliations for these numbers are contained within the appendix of the presentation. I'd now like to turn the call over to Old National's Chairman and CEO, Jim Ryan for opening remarks. Mr. Ryan?
James Ryan: Good morning. Earlier today, Old National reported first quarter 2026 earnings that exceeded our internal expectations and analyst estimates. We carried strong momentum into the year and our performance in the first quarter reinforces our confidence in the full year plan. This quarter demonstrates disciplined execution as we have reliably delivered quarter after quarter. We delivered robust loan growth, powered by continued strength in our core deposit franchise and disciplined funding management in a highly competitive market. We controlled expenses and generated strong fee income, which helped offset net interest income pressure from typical seasonality and the recent sub-debt issuance. Credit performance remains solid, supported by healthy liquidity and capital levels. We also acted decisively on capital returns, repurchasing shares during the quarter, including reducing auto Bremer's trust position in Old National, and we intend to deploy the remaining authorization over the course of the program. Bottom line, we are executing and we expect to keep building from here. Our priorities remain clear: drive organic growth and return capital to shareholders. Organic growth starts with talent, and we are investing accordingly. We recently announced a strengthened commercial leadership team, promoting proven internal leaders and adding experienced bankers from several super regional institutions. Our team is focused every day on winning new clients and deepening existing relationships and building the next generation of bankers. Our commercial pipelines are at record levels, and our talent pipeline is as strong as it has ever been. We are also accelerating efficiency and scalability through technology and AI investments supporting positive operating leverage. As a result, we delivered a record adjusted efficiency ratio that remains in the top decile of our industry. On the operating environment, the quarter brought higher for longer rate outlook and continued industry uncertainty. Old National is built for this backdrop. Our balance sheet remains neutral to the short end of the curve, our granular low-cost deposit base helps contain funding costs and our strong underwriting and straightforward community banking model positions us to perform through volatility. Importantly, nothing we are seeing changes our outlook. Loan pipelines are at record levels. Momentum is building, and we remain confident in our full year expectations. To close, we're off to a great start in 2026, and we're executing against our commitments. Our focus remains on organic growth and disciplined capital return. This is not a time where we need acquisitions to achieve our objectives. I want to thank our team for delivering a strong quarter and for staying relentlessly focused on our clients. With that, I'll turn the call over to John to walk through the quarter's financial results in more detail.
John Moran: Thanks. As Jim mentioned and as summarized on Slide 4, we delivered another strong quarter and a solid start to the year, reflecting continued momentum in organic growth, disciplined expense management stable credit performance and increased capital return with robust capital levels. . Beginning on Slide 5, we reported GAAP 1Q earnings per share of $0.59. Excluding $0.02 of merger-related expenses and a noncash expense associated with the final distribution of a legacy First Midwest pension plan, adjusted earnings per share were $0.61. Results were driven by better-than-expected loan growth and fee income along with well-controlled expenses. Credit remained stable with less than 20 basis points of non-PCD charge-offs. Our profitability profile as measured by return on assets and on tangible common equity remain top decile versus our peers. Capital finished the quarter with CET1 over 11% and we grew tangible book value per share, 6% annualized and 11% year-over-year despite absorbing the majority of Bremer onetime charges, better-than-expected balance sheet growth and returning capital to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases. Specifically, during the first quarter, we returned $151 million to shareholders. On Slide 6, you can see our quarterly balance sheet trends, underscoring strength in our liquidity and capital positions. Our loan-to-deposit ratio remained 89% and the CET1 ratio is comfortably north of 11%. Again, we compounded tangible book value per share year-over-year despite the impact of the Bremer close merger charges over the past year and the increased pace of capital return. We repurchased 3.9 million shares during the current quarter and 6.1 million shares over the last year. With dividends and repurchases, our combined payout ratio was 64% of 1Q adjusted net income to common. As we've stated in the last several quarters, the best investment we can make today is ourselves. On Slide 7, we show trends in earning assets. Total loans grew 8% annualized from the last quarter, led by 16.9% annualized growth in C&I. Production was diversified across our commercial book and the next few quarters should be supported by record high pipelines of $5.5 billion, up nearly 14% from year-end levels. The investment portfolio was essentially unchanged from the prior quarter with portfolio purchases offset by changes in fair values. We expect approximately $2.4 billion in cash flow over the next 12 months. Today, new money yields are running about 83 basis points above back book yields on securities. Strong loan growth, ongoing repricing across both loans and securities and continued deposit pricing discipline supports stable to improving net interest income and net interest margin over the course of 2026. I would point out that the first quarter was impacted by 2 fewer days, our sub debt issuance in late January and the spread dynamics inherent in this quarter's loan production, which was skewed decidedly toward near investment-grade floating rate C&I. Moving to Slide 8, we show trends in deposits. Total deposits increased 4.2% annualized, primarily driven by commercial and retail growth and partially offset by seasonally lower public funds balances. As a reminder, 1Q is the low point for our public funds deposits with those balances typically rebuilding over the second and third quarters. Noninterest-bearing deposits declined slightly to 23% of total deposits from 24% in the prior quarter, partly reflecting the seasonal factors I just mentioned. Despite remaining on offense with respect to client acquisition in a competitive deposit environment, we were able to decrease total deposit costs by 8 basis points and lowered interest-bearing deposits and even better 14 basis points linked quarter. We achieved an approximate 93% beta in our exception priced book in conjunction with the Fed cuts in the fourth quarter. These actions resulted in a spot rate of 170 basis points on total deposits at March 31. Overall, our deposit strategy performed as we expected, and we successfully achieved the down rate beta that we had targeted for this rate cycle. Slide 9 shows our quarterly income statement trends. As I mentioned earlier, adjusted earnings per share were $0.61 for the quarter, and our profitability remains peer leading. Moving on to Slide 10, we present details of our net interest income and margin, both of which reflect my prior comments around day count, the nature of this quarter's loan production and the impact of our sub debt issuance. You'll note that we remain neutral to short-term interest rates, and we have a total of nearly $8 billion in fixed rate loans and securities expected to reprice over the next 12 months. Slide 11 shows trends in adjusted noninterest income, which was $122 million for the quarter, exceeding our guidance. While most of our fee businesses performed in line with our expectations, we again saw better-than-expected performance within mortgage despite typical seasonal patterns in that business and within capital markets. In both cases, this was driven by the mid-quarter dip in rates. Continuing to Slide 12. Adjusted noninterest expense was $354 million for the quarter. Run rate expenses remained well controlled, and we generated positive operating leverage, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. We reported a record low 46% adjusted efficiency ratio, and we have now realized 100% of the $111 million of annual run rate cost saves that were anticipated with Bremer. On Slide 13, we present our credit trends. Total net charge-offs were 26 basis points or 19 basis points, excluding charge-offs on PCD loans. Criticized and classified loans increased $113 million this quarter as Bremer loans transitioned to Old National's asset quality framework consistent with our due diligence expectations. Legacy Old National upgrades partly offset this increase. Nonaccrual loans to total loans decreased modestly, the fourth consecutive quarter of improving performance trends due to active portfolio management. The first quarter allowance for credit losses to total loans, including the reserve for unfunded commitments was 122 basis points, down 2 basis points from the prior quarter, primarily driven by charge-offs on PCD loans and loan growth in lower risk portfolios. Consistent with the fourth quarter, our qualitative reserves incorporate a 100% weighting on the Moody's S2 scenario with additional qualitative factors to capture global economic uncertainty. Lastly, given the continued focus on loans to nondepository financial institutions, we'd again like to emphasize that our exposure is de minimis. All said, MDFIs are approximately 1% of total loans all are performing and like other businesses that we bank most are long-standing client relationships. Slide 14 presents key credit metrics relative to peers. As discussed in past calls, we've historically experienced a lower conversion rate of NPLs to NCOs as compared to our peers, driven by our approach to credit and client selection. That continues to be the case, and we remain comfortable around the credit outlook. On Slide 15, you can see our capital position at the end of the quarter. Regulatory ratios in TCE were stable linked quarter as strong retained earnings were offset by the robust quarterly loan growth, share repurchases and merger-related charges. Still, tangible book value per share was up 6% linked quarter annualized and 11% year-over-year. Our peer-leading profitability profile continues to generate significant capital, which opened the door for capital return late last year. As previously mentioned, we repurchased 3.9 million shares of common stock during the first quarter and have $383 million remaining under our program. Lastly, of note, while not yet finalized, we would clearly expect a capital benefit under the proposed capital rule changes. This would mainly come from reductions in RWA treatment within our mortgage book and changes to the treatment of unfunded commitments over 1 year. Obviously, these changes, if finalized, could present meaningful capital optionality. In any case, we feel confident in our plans to continue to execute on our buyback plan, which runs through the end of February. Slide 16 includes our outlook for the full year 2026, which is unchanged from our prior guidance. We believe our current pipeline supports full year loan growth of 4% to 6% and based on the results of the first quarter, we suspect we may trend to the higher end of this range. We anticipate continued success in the execution of our deposit strategy and expect to meet or exceed industry growth in 2026, generally in line with our asset growth. Our NII guidance remains unchanged, and our balance sheet remains neutrally positioned to short-term interest rates. Obviously, the exact path of NIM and NII in 2026 will depend on growth dynamics the shape of the yield curve, the absolute level of rates in the belly of the curve and the competitive landscape, but our base case outlook assumes the Fed has done for the balance of this year and that the 5-year, which has been volatile year-to-date, stabilizes at about current levels. We expect our fee businesses to perform well, supported by a robust loan pipeline that is driving capital markets activity, along with continued momentum in our wealth management and brokerage businesses. To that end, we believe we would trend towards the higher end of our full year fee income guide. Expense guidance is unchanged despite a lower-than-expected outcome in the first quarter. but this is due to a robust talent pipeline and our expectation of continued investment in operational excellence. As a reminder, second quarter includes normal seasonal factors such as merit increases. Our expectations for credit and income tax rates are unchanged. In aggregate, you'll note that we expect full year results that yield 15% plus growth in earnings per share and again, feature positive operating leverage with peer-leading profitability good growth in fees, controlled expenses and normalized credit. To close, the first quarter sets the tone for the rest of 2026, and we are on the front foot. We intend to stay there. Organic loan growth was strong and pipelines are healthy. we maintain a granular low-cost deposit franchise and our credit book remains stable. That gives us the flexibility to invest in ourselves in talent and in capabilities while continuing to return capital to shareholders. As Jim said at the top of the call, Old National enters the balance of 2026 with good momentum and added conviction in our ability to execute. With those comments, I'd like to open the call for your questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.
Robert Siefers: John, I was hoping you could please walk through sort of the major drivers of NII momentum going forward. I know you touched on the seasonality in the first quarter and the impact of the sub debt issuance. But just that because I think the year started a little weaker than at least the market had expected those idiosyncratic factors notwithstanding. But you kept the guide, I think the quarterly NII will need to average about 5% higher through the remainder of the year to get to the midpoint. So just sort of what gives you confidence in the guide and what are the major puts and takes you see.
John Moran: Yes. So obviously, I think, first and foremost, we've got a more cooperative yield curve today than what we had on average for the first quarter. So that will be a helper -- and then we've got $5.5 billion sitting in the pipeline, up 14% year-over-year, and we feel really good about the growth outlook. And what's driving that is a little bit more balanced in terms of CRE versus C&I than what we saw in the first quarter. So I think the spread implications of that are favorable to us as we look forward into 2Q, 3Q.
Robert Siefers: Okay. Perfect. And then -- so that sort of touches on the second one, which was sort of the margin specifically. So presumably, that beneficial mix shift in the loan portfolio should be helpful. But just when we think about the sort of launching point of the 355 margin, any other factors that would cause it to sort of jump up from here. I think in your prep remarks, you sort of suggested stable to improving for both NII and the margin.
John Moran: Yes. I think stable to improving is the right way to think about it. Recall, we will get 4 basis points back on dates and so that will kind of the launch point there. And yes, I think stable to improve is the name of the game for this year. .
Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Ben Gerlinger with Citi.
Benjamin Gerlinger: I just want to double check to run through the numbers a little quick. You said a higher end of the range, the higher end of the range. You're building out a bigger team and hiring you guys say the higher end of the range on expenses? Or is it still within that despite the lower core on 1Q.
John Moran: I'm just going to -- I'm going to walk it back on 1 thing that you said. So we said loans high end of range, NII guidance is unchanged, fees, high end of range and expenses is unchanged despite a better-than-expected outcome in the first quarter. And that piece of the guide, Ben, on the operating expense side is really not the talent pipeline that Tim and Jim are building I think we're having more conversations today than at any other time that I can remember since I've been at Old National, and we're really excited about that pipeline.
Benjamin Gerlinger: Yes. I apologize. It was on higher -- but you retire still good. Just wanted to kind of push you a little bit here. So like things are looking good and you're hiring and you're setting up -- the hires today are obviously not impacting much for growth on '26, call it more of a '27 and the '28 story. Both looks good. Why not be more aggressive on the shareholder buyback or return?
John Moran: Well, I think -- look, I think we feel really good about where capital is. We fully intend -- we've got $383 million left on this existing authorization. We would fully intend to use that through the end of that authorization in February. Look, a combined payout ratio that's close to 2/3 of what we generated in the first quarter and still being able to support loan growth, I think is a pretty good place to be. And so we feel comfortable with where we are. And obviously, we'll if those capital rules become final, we'll have some additional optionality and clearly, think about what we're going to do with that, and that would be...
Unknown Executive: Incremental to everything we're doing today.
John Moran: Exactly. .
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Brendan Nosal with Hovde Group.
Brendan Nosal: Starting off on loan growth here. I know you've been kind of working towards these numbers for years and years in terms of the bank's growth capacity, but it really feels like something clicked this quarter and will continue to click for you through the balance of the year. Has anything changed environmentally in your favor? Or is this just kind of the culmination of a lot of effort.
John Moran: Yes. Thanks for the question. It's certainly -- we're leaning into go-to-market strategies. We're really focusing on sales excellence and just being tighter in who we're targeting, how we're targeting and leveraging the full plethora of products and our platform that we have to offer. And we've seen that really come together nicely this quarter, and we like the trends that we see in the record pipelines that we have. We think that will continue to come to fruition. And as we add more bankers and more talent, we like the opportunity to continue to drive that growth going forward.
Brendan Nosal: Okay. Okay. Great. Maybe pivoting to capital. I heard the commentary on the proposed capital rules and the benefits that would drive for you for others, and I think you mentioned that opens up the option set down the road. I mean can you walk through that? I think at the near-term buyback commentary and lack of interest in M&A at present. But like longer term, if you and others are sitting with more capital, what does that allow you to do longer term?
James Ryan: Yes. Look, for us, I think you'd see a reduction in RWA roughly in line with what other sort of estimated for midsized banks. Again, on our balance sheet, the 2 biggest drivers of that are the LTVs in our wonderful family book and the line utilization is greater than 1 year. There were some banks that played a lot of games in the risk-weighted asset diet years kind of shrinking the commitments down to 1 year minus a day. Old National never did that. So the capital treatment on that piece of our book will be favorable. I think in total, it could be up to 100 basis points, give or take, on CET1, and that is not a level that we're going to run the bank at. And so I think it would be and foremost, supporting continued organic growth; and then secondly, return to capital. I think it's also just getting comfortable with where the industry settles at. Where is the right CET1 ratio, where the right TCE ratios to run the organization long term. I think the industry is still trying to find that target level. Clearly, we believe we have a lower risk model and should be at the peer average or lower, but there's a lot of work to kind of get there to define what those normalized levels should be.
Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.
Christopher McGratty: On the Basel discussion, the 100 basis points that John referenced, ballpark. We've heard a lot of banks. Kind of in our follow-up calls talk about the importance of balancing CET1 and TCE. One going as far as saying 8% might be the right number for TCE. How do you -- I know the rating agencies care, how do you view the interplay between the two?
John Moran: Yes. Look, I think those are the 2, and we have long been sensitive to those as you know, right? So I would say that we feel really good about where we are in TCE as evidenced by the fact that we're returning a pretty significant chunk of capital in the quarter and 64% combined payout ratio on the quarter's kind of core net income. . While still supporting organic growth. So as Jim said, I think we still got to kind of figure out what the right long-term numbers are as an industry and then what's appropriate for Old National Bank, but we feel really good about where we are.
James Ryan: The challenge Chris becomes from a stress testing perspective, we feel really good about our capital levels and now we could push it harder. But there becomes a point in time when under periods of stress, our industry goes back to the higher capital levels are the ones that maybe feel a little less pain. So I think we're just trying to figure out what's the right long-term view and not get caught up in today's whatever short-term window might be. And how do we balance all the other stakeholders like you suggested.
Christopher McGratty: Yes, you want to stay off the screens when things get a to get it. On deposit pricing, as we stay -- if the forward curve is right, there's no more cuts, or read that 170 spot are we flatlined basically until the Fed moves again?
John Moran: Look, I think we still got some opportunity in the back book. We've definitely got some opportunity as brokered roles but I think the material decreases in spot rate are probably behind us if the Fed is done for the year, which is our base case expectation. And I would tell you, the deposit competition it's intense, but rational. And the environment around specials has stayed a little bit frothy longer than what we would have probably hoped for as an industry.
Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Janet Lee with TD Cowen.
Sun Young Lee: When I look at the Slide 10 on the impact of net interest margin that 19 basis point negative impact from rate and volume mix. Relative to 5.88% total loan yields for the quarter, should we expect that loan yields to increase in the second quarter as the -- obviously, the rate impact is decreasing or basically gone. And then maybe the first quarter had a overly high concentration of higher-quality C&I loans, which carry lower spreads. I guess that's not a bad thing at all, but I just want to get a sense of what a good loan yields is to start off as we head into the second quarter.
James Ryan: Yes. I think you've got the moving parts of that, right, Janet. It's the on loan yields, like margin overall, 10 basis points of that was day count for us. The balance of it was sort of sober down and most of that was offset by funding costs. And then there was a de minimis amount, just on churn in the book, so sort of, call it, 5 basis points, 4 or 5 basis points on loan yields, just regular churn. And I think going forward, much like margin, I think it's kind of stable to improving and will depend a little bit on business mix of production.
John Moran: Yes. When I look in the pipeline, just a couple of factors on the loan side. One, a greater portion of our pipeline is being driven in community markets, where we see a little less competition, and we see that segments and some of our strong community markets, where we have great market share and good brand picking up. . And then secondly, a larger part of our pipeline for the second quarter is in kind of core middle market, which third, fourth generational companies where you can tend to get a little more spread on that as well. also can get good core operating deposits with those loans as well. So as we look at the mix second quarter compared to first quarter from a timing standpoint, just had some of the higher quality loans that have slightly lower interest rates. In the second quarter, we see that mix shifting.
Sun Young Lee: Got it. That's very helpful. And I would also love to hear a little bit more about what you're doing on the AI front that you mentioned earlier that's helping on the efficiency and expense enterprise-wise?
James Ryan: Yes. So like others, we are investing in AI. We've got an AI center of excellence stood up within our technology and data teams. I would describe our progress to date is a lot of -- it's a lot of singles and doubles. And a really good example of that, that we shared with people is we had some like old Power BI legacy code that we lifted and shifted into a new data environment. It was kind of clunky. We threw AI at it and had what would have taken some of our best programmers month cleanup was done in a week. And so that would be a real life example of sort of -- I would describe that as a single and I think we've got some really interesting use cases that we're looking at. Probably the first 1 for us that we're going to dive deeper into is in risk management. If you think about everything that needs to be built to embed risk into the first line. Almost all of those jobs, which the big banks just through bodies at are checkers of checkers. And that is a perfect AI use case and I think something that, look, 100. That threshold is probably moving anyways, but it doesn't mean that we're not at work on thinking about things that we need to do as a bigger bank. And I think that the cost of that going to be a fraction of what it would have been even just 3 years ago because of some of the advancements in AI. So we're excited about it. And there's a lot of stuff watt the bank that we think help drive frees up dollars for us to go and invest in the more exciting stuff, which is the revenue-facing talent pipeline that Tim is building.
Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Brian Foran with Truist Securities.
Brian Foran: So the loan growth momentum, I mean, if we think about scenarios where it continues to be at the high end or above the guide, do you think earning assets will be growing at the same level? Or is there some point where if loan growth if we're start to pencil in 7% or 8% loan growth, we should moderate securities and cash a little bit.
James Ryan: Yes. I think it's probably fair to think about everything sort of growing about lockstep. So I think as loan growth goes, the liquidity book would grow with it.
Brian Foran: Got it. And then on the Basel discussion, I know it's very early, the proposals could change, so maybe it's too early for this question, but you referenced how some specific areas get much better treatment. Do you think this is big enough where from a strategic standpoint, you might do more hiring or focus in certain types of lending or you might deemphasize others. Is this a big enough move that you'll actually start remixing the business a little bit to optimize around it?
James Ryan: It's probably a little early to say for sure on that. The one place where I think when you think about our WA treatment and 1-4 family. It seems clear that the regulators are trying to encourage banks to be back in that business in a somewhat more meaningful way. And so there's interesting implications to that, that we would think through, I think, if it became a permanent role.
Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Brandon Rudd with Stephens.
Brandon Rud: My first question, if I could drill in on loan yields a bit. I know it's primarily rate mark related now, but do you have the purchase accounting accretion for the quarter?
John Moran: Not handy. It was roughly unchanged, though. I think the net-net of sort of purchase accounting accretion and interest collected on nonaccrual was a wash, like no impact on overall margin.
Brandon Rud: Got you. Okay. And then for the other side of the balance sheet, I heard your earlier comments about deposit cost competition. Superregional Bank last week said the Midwest is a bit more competitive than other regions around the nation. Since your footprint kind of stretches across the Midwest, are there markets in particular that you're seeing more competition than less than others?
John Moran: In the Midwest, no, not really. I would say that our most competitive market is probably Nashville. And that does -- we don't really have a back book in Nashville to worry about or certainly not the size back book that we have in other markets. But yes, I think most of our markets are competitive but rational.
James Ryan: Yes. I think the other interesting thing is that some of the large national players are hanging some pretty steamy rates out there. So that's primarily competing with our wealth and private client businesses, which can be a little bit challenging at times.
Operator: And our next question comes from the line of David Chiaverini with Jefferies.
David Chiaverini: On expenses, can you talk about areas of investment and how we should think about positive operating leverage, the extent to which it should come through based on the guide we're modeling pretty decent operating leverage. But can you talk about those 2 things?
James Ryan: We are likewise modeling pretty decent positive operating leverage on the year, David. I think, in fact, when we stack it up against our executive peers, we were either #1 or #2 on that metric for this year. And look, our expectation is that we'll continue to drive quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year positive operating leverage, and we walk into every single budget cycle. With that as a guiding sort of principle. So we know that, that's a metric that's important. It's something that we're focused on, and it's something that I think will deliver in 2016 for sure.
David Chiaverini: Great. And then shifting over to your comment about pipelines on the loan side being up 14%, great to hear. Any particular industries that are driving that?
John Moran: David, they're pretty balanced, no real industry concentration. And I would say we've seen a really nice pickup in CRE pipelines. So across the board, C&I remains strong. CRE is building -- and we've seen markets like Minnesota, where our momentum there is building pipelines there are higher than they've been in the last 18 months. So we feel very good overall about the pipelines, and it's a good mix of CRE and C&I, but with no concentration from an industry standpoint.
Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Jared Shaw with Barclays.
Jonathan Rau: This is Jon Rau on for Jared. Just looking at some of the components of deposit pricing, it seems like the exception book has been driving most of the downward pressure on deposit costs and the non exception book might be even going up a little bit in terms of average cost. Can you just talk about the dynamics there? And is if there's any emphasis being placed on moving to more weighting towards exception pricing?
James Ryan: Yes. So the exception book is where we saw all of our uprate beta, and that's kind of how we've always managed deposit costs at Old National. So it is where we've experienced all of the down rate beta as well. we're really pleased with how that's performed. I would say if you're looking at quarterly sort of puts and takes on deposits, don't forget that there's some seasonal factors in our first quarter. Our public funds balances are at a low point in 1Q, those rebuild in 2Q and 3Q, and there's some seasonality in our noninterest-bearing on both the commercial and the public side of things as well in the first quarter. So that might explain what you're kind of scratching out there on the quarter's deposit costs.
Jonathan Rau: Okay. Great. That's good color. And then maybe just a little more on the leadership changes in commercial banking bring in Chris. I guess, is there any specific areas of expertise in terms of lending verticals or anywhere else that he brings that would kind of alter the pace or areas that you're hiring in?
John Moran: Yes. Chris' background is diverse, and we're very excited about what he can bring. But primarily on the C&I side, when you think about asset-based lending and core C&I middle market banking, the old school banking that we're very known for and very proud of. I think Chris will do an exceptional job of helping to drive that growth. At the same time, John Thurston on the -- on the corporate banking side, as our leader and President of that, we're looking at different ways to grow there, and we're excited about the depth he brings of a 30-plus year career across business banking, commercial banking and corporate banking. So excited about what each of them can bring to our growth going forward.
Operator: And our next question comes from the line of John Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.
James Ryan: We were just in Minneapolis yesterday. I didn't see you in the Skyway.
Jon Arfstrom: No, I had a seatbelt on my office chair. Can't leave my desk. A few follow-ups. John, you said the yield curve maybe is a little bit more cooperative now. what changed, what makes it more cooperative and what's more ideal for you guys? .
John Moran: Well, the 5-year came back to $390-ish , which is definitely helpful and there's some -- there's better -- there's a little bit better steepness finally. Now it may have gotten there for the wrong reasons, but we'll take it, right? So a little bit of steepness and a better belly is certainly helpful for us.
Jon Arfstrom: Yes. Okay. And then just following up on the positive operating leverage question. You flagged a record adjusted efficiency ratio this quarter of 45.7%, which is great for your company. Are you saying that could go lower, John? Is that the message?
John Moran: I think we're going to try to keep it where it is or maybe grind it lower...
James Ryan: I think the tension, John, from my perspective, is that we don't want that to be an inhibitor to investing in our future, investing in growth, investing in talent. I think that's just the dynamics. We inherently know like if we're able to successfully convert this talent pipeline, that's an 18-month kind of breakeven scenario. And inevitably, the people that we're looking at hiring are kind of top decile performers, so they just come at a much higher cost on average. And so I don't want that number of 45% to be a number that stops us from investing in our future or the growth of the organization. So that will be the tension that we'll just have -- as I've said publicly a few times like, hey, nothing would make me happier if I have to come and apologize to you all that our expense guide is going up because we just had that much success in recruiting and attracting great talent to join the organization.
Jon Arfstrom: Yes, fair. I don't want to say it's good enough. We want to keep pushing, but that's pretty good for you guys.
James Ryan: I agree. I mean you know our history. That's remarkable if you go back and look at our history .
Jon Arfstrom: Yes. Okay. And then the last one on the buyback. You flagged that you took a piece of the buyback from you bought from the Bremer Trust, how much is left there? Are those negotiated transactions? And kind of what's the plan? Is it more of a -- I guess it's maybe more of a bummer question, but what do you think the plan is and how much did you get from the trust?
James Ryan: Let me just -- we actually flagged that transaction when we did it. It was around $50 million of stock. And so we just wanted to repoint that out. We did put a filing out on that. And the whole point is honestly, they see great value in long-term ownership. We expect them to have long-term ownership -- we're obviously sensitive to the concentration that they bring. So no material change to the current ownership other than the $50 million we reduced and I just don't see them wanting to do anything different in the near future. Obviously, they're in control. The lockup expires really quickly here. But after the lockup expires, I don't see them doing any changes based on our conversations but anything after that, they have to decide. The good news is we have the right of first refusal. So to the extent that they want to come to the market, we'll be there to support that. But I don't anticipate that based on our most recent conversations.
Jon Arfstrom: Okay.
Operator: And there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Jim Ryan for closing remarks.
James Ryan: We appreciate everybody's support. And as usual, we'll be here all day to answer any follow-up questions. Thanks so much.
Operator: And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Old National's call. Once again, a replay, along with the presentation slides, will be available for 12 months on the Investor Relations page of Old National's website, oldnational.com. A replay of the call will also be available by dialing (800) 770-2030 access code 9394540 and this replay will be available through May 6. If anyone has additional questions, please contact Lynell Durkol at (812) 464-1366. Thank you for your participation in today's conference call, and you may now disconnect.