NNI
Nelnet, Inc.Nelnet, Inc. engages in loan servicing, communications, education technology, services, and payment processing businesses worldwide. The Loan Servicing and Systems segment provides loan conversion, application processing, borrower updates, customer service, payment processing, due diligence procedures, funds management reconciliation, and claim processing services. This segment also provides student loan servicing software; business process outsourcing services specialized in contact center mana
2-Year Price History
Quarterly Financials & Projections
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est | 2027-Q4 | 505.0 | 123.7 | -- | 60.6 | -- | 55.6 | -7.6 | 625.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q3 | 490.0 | 122.5 | -- | 61.3 | -- | 63.7 | -8.8 | 569.4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q2 | 500.0 | 132.5 | -- | 70.0 | -- | 67.5 | -7.5 | 505.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2027-Q1 | 485.0 | 123.7 | -- | 63.1 | -- | 67.9 | -7.3 | 438.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q4 | 495.0 | 123.8 | -- | 59.4 | -- | 49.5 | -7.4 | 370.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q3 | 480.0 | 124.8 | -- | 64.8 | -- | 67.2 | -8.6 | 320.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q2 | 490.0 | 134.8 | -- | 73.5 | -- | 63.7 | -7.4 | 253.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Est | 2026-Q1 | 475.0 | 123.5 | -- | 66.5 | -- | 71.3 | -7.1 | 189.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 525.5 | 194.4 | 207.3 | 71.1 | 73.1 | 61.6 | -11.6 | 118.7 | 7,699 | 36.1 | 8.3% | 1.8x | 15.6x |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 504.0 | 174.0 | 194.5 | 57.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 2,644 | 7,802 | 36.3 | 8.2% | 1.5x | 13.5x |
| Act | 2025-Q3 | 494.6 | 152.3 | 136.5 | 106.7 | 112.4 | 100.8 | -11.7 | 1,373 | 7,823 | 36.3 | 4.4% | 1.3x | 16.6x |
| Act | 2025-Q2 | 612.8 | 266.7 | 237.4 | 181.5 | 81.8 | 78.1 | -3.7 | 1,307 | 7,904 | 36.5 | 7.8% | 2.0x | 19.9x |
| Act | 2025-Q1 | 466.1 | 129.3 | 106.1 | 82.6 | 91.2 | 87.8 | -3.4 | 1,255 | 8,656 | 36.5 | 3.3% | 1.0x | 31.1x |
| Act | 2024-Q4 | 434.2 | 105.0 | 78.4 | 63.2 | 180.5 | 197.9 | -17.4 | 1,178 | 8,310 | 36.5 | 2.7% | 0.7x | 31.0x |
| Act | 2024-Q3 | 434.8 | 34.2 | -2.2 | 2.4 | 137.0 | 132.6 | -4.4 | 1,146 | 8,938 | 36.4 | -0.1% | 0.2x | 49.1x |
| Act | 2024-Q2 | 454.7 | 94.1 | 58.4 | 45.1 | 133.4 | 122.8 | -10.6 | 1,035 | 9,568 | 36.5 | 1.6% | 0.5x | 42.0x |
| Act | 2024-Q1 | 516.9 | 127.9 | 93.9 | 73.4 | 211.6 | 188.3 | -23.2 | 1,162 | 10,583 | 37.2 | 2.4% | 0.7x | 45.8x |
| Act | 2023-Q4 | 429.4 | -22.9 | -39.6 | -8.6 | 79.7 | 58.2 | -21.5 | 1,106 | 11,828 | 37.4 | -0.9% | -0.1x | 65.3x |
| Act | 2023-Q3 | 480.9 | 85.2 | 50.1 | 44.4 | 154.2 | 138.9 | -15.4 | 1,247 | 12,448 | 37.5 | 1.2% | 0.4x | 44.5x |
| Act | 2023-Q2 | 458.6 | 86.8 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 76.1 | 63.3 | -12.8 | 1,170 | 13,070 | 37.5 | 0.5% | 0.4x | 36.9x |
| Act | 2023-Q1 | 475.1 | 65.5 | 31.3 | 26.5 | 122.8 | 98.4 | -24.4 | 1,258 | 13,438 | 37.3 | 0.6% | 0.3x | 32.8x |
| Act | 2022-Q4 | 473.3 | 96.0 | 33.4 | 30.8 | 27.2 | 12.2 | -15.0 | 1,507 | 14,637 | 37.3 | 0.7% | 0.5x | 23.5x |
| Act | 2022-Q3 | 473.1 | 166.6 | 127.1 | 104.8 | 173.2 | 162.9 | -10.3 | 1,441 | 15,043 | 37.4 | 2.5% | 1.3x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q2 | 394.3 | 146.1 | 108.4 | 85.1 | 208.4 | 190.0 | -18.4 | 1,423 | 16,115 | 37.7 | 1.9% | 2.0x | -- |
| Act | 2022-Q1 | 494.1 | 276.9 | 240.6 | 186.7 | 275.4 | 259.6 | -15.8 | 1,101 | 16,737 | 38.0 | 4.2% | 5.8x | -- |
Multiples vs the company's own history — cheap or rich relative to itself? Historical fiscal years, then TTM, then forward projections (E). Forward rows hold today's price against projected earnings, so the multiple compresses if the company grows into it.
| Year | Price | Rev Gr | EBITDA % | EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | EV/FCF | P/E | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 87.61 | — | 37.4% | 686 | 23.5× | 25.8× | 7.3× | 1.6× |
| 2023 | 86.17 | +0.5% | 11.6% | 215 | 65.3× | 39.1× | 36.7× | 1.8× |
| 2024 | 105.49 | -0.2% | 19.6% | 361 | 31.0× | 17.4× | 22.0× | 2.2× |
| 2025 | 132.63 | +12.9% | 34.8% | 722 | 13.5× | 36.6× | 10.7× | 2.2× |
| TTM | 130.57 | +19.4% | 36.9% | 787 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2026E | 130.57 | -9.2% | 0.3% | 5 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
| 2027E | 130.57 | +2.1% | 0.3% | 5 | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× | 0.0× |
EBITDA in reporting-currency $M. Historical multiples use year-end market cap (split-adjusted price history); TTM & forward years use today's.
AI Analysis
LLM Evaluations
Nelnet is a complex financial holding company in the midst of a difficult strategic transition. The legacy FFELP portfolio is in structural runoff, removing a historically stable (if low-margin) earnings base. Management is pivoting into consumer credit (BNPL via Klarna), education technology, and solar — each carrying distinct risks. The Q2 2025 results were flattered by $175M in non-recurring ALLO gains, and the aggressive reduction in consumer loan loss allowances (from 11.1% to 3.9%) artificially boosted earnings. The solar segment is being wound down after a $57.5M loss. While the balance sheet is deleveraging and interest costs are declining, the 1.45x interest coverage ratio remains uncomfortably thin. At ~$130/share with a $4.7B market cap and $9.9B EV, the stock prices in a successful transition that is far from certain. The BNPL expansion introduces subprime credit risk at a potentially inopportune time, regulatory risks are elevated with halted federal oversight, and customer sentiment is terrible. There are better risk-adjusted opportunities elsewhere.
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
TTM Financial Snapshot
DCF Fair Value Estimate
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Options
| Strike | Call Bid/Ask | Call OI | Put Bid/Ask | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115.00 | $10.00/$19.70 | 0 | --/$4.80 | 0 |
| $120.00 | $5.00/$15.00 | 0 | --/$4.80 | 0 |
| $125.00 | $1.10/$11.00 | 10 | $0.10/$10.00 | 0 |
| $130.00 | $0.05/$6.10 | 15 | $0.10/$10.00 | 0 |
| $135.00 | $0.10/$10.00 | 0 | $2.30/$12.00 | 0 |
Forward Projections & Estimates
Employees
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
In Q1 2026 so far (quarter still filing), institutions are net buyers — bought 3.0% of float, sold 1.5%.
Ownership composition
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive | $238M | $85.93 | −$163K | −$18.1M | -0.4% | $480.92B |
| MAGNOLIA GROUP, LLC | $215M | $81.36 | +$0 | −$29.8M | -4.3% | $538M |
| FARMERS & MERCHANTS INVESTMENTS INC | $153M | $102.70 | +$0 | −$2.6M | -0.2% | $3.60B |
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $126M | $112.35 | +$6.8M | −$21.9M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $87.6M | $128.96 | +$87.6M | +$87.6M | — | $1.91T |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $74.5M | $128.96 | +$74.5M | +$74.5M | — | $4.04T |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $44.7M | $104.72 | +$4.1M | −$4.6M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $43.3M | $119.41 | +$9.2M | +$27.7M | +0.7% | $193.48B |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $40.6M | $99.90 | +$2.2M | −$4.7M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| GENERAL AMERICAN INVESTORS CO INC | $30.2M | $81.36 | −$1.2M | −$1.2M | +1.4% | $1.51B |
| QVT Financial LP | $29.8M | $84.69 | +$226K | +$226K | +1.9% | $1.26B |
| Empyrean Capital Partners, LP | $29.8M | $88.18 | +$0 | +$29.8M | +3.3% | $2.82B |
| Bragg Financial Advisors, Inc | $29.2M | $123.19 | +$1.8M | +$29.2M | -0.1% | $3.16B |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $22.4M | $112.68 | +$1.6M | −$5.4M | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $20.9M | $99.70 | +$944K | −$4.5M | +0.7% | $645.81B |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | $17.3M | $95.85 | −$6.1M | +$163K | -0.2% | $1.47T |
| Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $14.0M | $103.99 | +$4.1M | +$6.5M | +0.3% | $70.36B |
| BAR HARBOR WEALTH MANAGEMENT | $14.0M | $83.26 | −$195K | −$67K | -0.0% | $1.71B |
| Sycale Advisors (NY) LLC | $13.0M | $87.92 | −$6.7M | −$15.8M | -2.1% | $198M |
| VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST COPassive | $11.4M | $128.96 | +$11.4M | +$11.4M | — | $395.83B |
Trading behavior
Biggest decreases this quarter
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 54.6%
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
Related Stocks
Investors who own this also own
Stocks held by the same active managers as this one, ranked by score — how much more often these appear together than random chance (1× = baseline). Excludes index ETFs and market makers; minimum 3 shared holders.
Analyst Coverage
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Inc | EPS | EPS Range | # Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 | 372M | 119M | 55M | $1.52 | $1.52 – $1.52 | 1 |
| 2025 Q4 | 382M | 122M | 59M | $1.63 | $1.63 – $1.63 | 1 |
| 2026 Q1 | 444M | 142M | 96M | $2.66 | $2.66 – $2.66 | 1 |
| 2026 Q2 | 422M | 135M | 83M | $2.31 | $2.31 – $2.31 | 1 |
| 2026 Q3 | 434M | 139M | 80M | $2.23 | $2.23 – $2.23 | 1 |
| 2026 Q4 | 415M | 133M | 75M | $2.08 | $2.08 – $2.08 | 1 |
| 2027 Q1 | 463M | 148M | 99M | $2.74 | $2.74 – $2.74 | 1 |
| 2027 Q2 | 442M | 142M | 92M | $2.56 | $2.56 – $2.56 | 1 |
| 2027 Q3 | 454M | 146M | 83M | $2.30 | $2.30 – $2.30 | 1 |
| 2027 Q4 | 434M | 139M | 79M | $2.20 | $2.20 – $2.20 | 1 |
Corporate
Executive Compensation (2023-2025)
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | SELL | Van Deun Jona M | director | 400 | $128.95 | $52K | $91K |
| 2025-09-05 | SELL | HENNING THOMAS EDWARD | director | 8,196 | $128.87 | $1.06M | $0 |
| 2025-08-25 | SELL | Butterfield Shelby J | other: Former 10% Owner | 41,929 | $119.25 | $5.00M | $61K |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Segments
| Loan Servicing And Systems Revenue | $116.6M | -53% |
| Education Technology Services And Payment Processing Services | $112.3M | NEW |
| Payment Processing | $44.8M | -41% |
| Tuition Payment Plan Services | $32.2M | -51% |
| Private Education And Consumer Loan Servicing | $24.8M | -35% |
| Software Services | $11.4M | +1% |
| Outsourced Services Revenue And Other | $0.4M | NEW |
| Other Service Offering | $0.4M | -76% |
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
Nelnet, Inc.: Data Void in Preliminary Q1 2026 Metadata
Counter-Thesis
Counter-Thesis & Recent News
Nelnet reported a year-over-year decline in Q4 2025 GAAP net income to $57.8 million ($1.60/share), down from $63.2 million ($1.73/share) in 2024. The company's solar construction business was a major drag, reporting a $57.5 million loss in 2025, leading to a strategic retreat from the residential solar market (PR Newswire, Feb 2026; Solar Builder, April 2024). Additionally, a $10 million settlement for a 2022 data breach is reaching final approval in May 2026, and a key director, Adam Peterson, resigned in March 2026 (ClassAction.org; SEC Form 8-K, March 2026).
The core 'Asset Generation' segment is facing a structural decline as the legacy FFELP loan portfolio run-off accelerates, with average balances dropping from $11.6B in early 2024 to $7.9B by late 2025 (Nelnet Q4 Earnings). To offset this, Nelnet is pivoting into high-risk 'Buy Now, Pay Later' (BNPL) receivables, including a $4B deal with Klarna. This shift introduces significant consumer credit risk and provision for loan losses ($32.5M in Q4 2025) just as macroeconomic conditions for subprime borrowers deteriorate (Shareholder Letter, March 2026).
A GAO report in March 2026 revealed that federal oversight of servicer accuracy was halted in early 2025, creating massive 'hidden' regulatory risk if systemic errors are discovered retroactively. Furthermore, major insider selling occurred in early 2026, with Shelby J. Butterfield selling approximately $5M in stock (Quiver Quantitative, Jan 2026). The company also continues to face litigation alleging systematic failure to process income-driven repayment (IDR) applications, resulting in excessive interest for borrowers (Domina Law Group).
Nelnet faces intensifying 'allocation share' competition from MOHELA and Aidvantage (Maximus) in federal servicing, where contracts are increasingly tied to borrower satisfaction—a metric where Nelnet is struggling (Porter’s Five Forces, March 2026). In the private sector, specialized fintech lenders are eroding Nelnet's market share by offering more streamlined, digital-first lending experiences, while the overall student loan market faces contraction due to shifting federal policies and the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' (OBBBA) overhaul (TCNJ News, 2026).
Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative; borrowers on platforms like Reddit report being 'stuck in a loop' with Nelnet's customer service and allege the company is 'infiltrating' and closing Dept. of Ed Ombudsman cases to hide administrative errors (Reddit r/StudentLoans, Jan 2026). The CFPB received over 23,700 student loan complaints in 2025, with many citing incorrect interest accruals and failed subsidy applications during the transition to new repayment plans (CFPB Annual Report, March 2026).