Stocks/NHC

NHC

National HealthCare Corporation
Healthcare·Medical - Care Facilities
$184.42
$2.9B market cap
Revenue
$766.5M
Free Cash Flow
$59.3M
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
7.7%
P/FCF
48.6x
EV/FCF
44.0x
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
--
Upside
--

National HealthCare Corporation operates, manages, and provides services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and a behavioral health hospital. Its skilled nursing facilities offer licensed therapy services, nutrition services, social services, activities, and housekeeping and laundry services, as well as medical services prescribed by physicians; and rehabilitative services, such as physical, speech, respiratory

2-Year Price History

$196.00+98.2%
$100$120$140$160$180volJun 24Oct 24Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 26

Quarterly Financials & Projections

Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
PeriodRevEBITDAOpInNIOCFFCFCapExCashDebtSharesROICIntCovEV/EBITDA
Act2026-Q1380.056.7-104.335.962.552.9-9.6311.639.315.8-103.4%210.8x--
Act2025-Q4386.544.733.124.916.86.4-10.4309.287.115.724.1%54.8x--

Valuation & Metrics

Market Stats

Price$184.42
Market Cap$2.9B
Enterprise Value$2.6B
P/S Ratio3.8x
P/FCF48.6x
EV/FCF44.0x
FCF Margin (TTM)7.7%
FCF Yield2.1%
Dividend Yield (TTM)1.4%
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD

TTM Financial Snapshot

Revenue$766.5M
Net Income$60.7M
Free Cash Flow$59.3M

Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin13.2%
Net Margin7.9%
FCF Margin7.7%
CapEx % of Revenue2.6%
SBC % of Revenue0.1%
ROIC-39.6%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage93.5x

Forward Outlook & Risk

Short Interest

Short % of Float--
Short Shares0.7M
Days to Cover5.4
Change (vs Prior)-9.8%
Need at least 2 settlement dates for chart

Employees

Headcount14,962
Revenue / Employee$51,233
Gross Profit / Employee$17,993

Institutional Ownership

Headline & net flow

NEUTRAL
Net flow · still filing
No float data — flow unavailable.

Ownership composition

Active
26.4%(+15.3% YoY)
220 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
27.4%(+11.1% YoY)
12 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.1%(-0.1% YoY)
5 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
Form 4 — latest per insider
0%25%50%75%100%2022-062023-032023-122024-092025-062026-03
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct

Top holders

Fund$ valueCost basisΔ QoQΔ YoYα lifeFund AUM
BlackRock, Inc.Passive$303M$121.95−$1.1M−$10.0M-0.2%$5.69T
Morgan Stanley Institutional Investment Advisors LLC$166M$125.81+$3K+$45.1M+3.6%$1.04B
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LPPassive$151M$70.28−$1.8M−$5.8M-0.4%$480.92B
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$126M$159.70+$126M+$126M$1.91T
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive$87.8M$159.70+$87.8M+$87.8M$4.04T
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP$84.7M$136.86+$26.4M+$80.7M+0.1%$139.72B
STATE STREET CORPPassive$78.8M$86.49+$1.0M−$710K-0.2%$2.89T
M Holdings Securities, Inc.$73.8M$120.47−$129K+$73.8M+0.5%$1.47B
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC$53.6M$90.99−$2.3M−$11.0M+1.2%$63.91B
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive$51.6M$85.31+$771K+$2.9M+2.3%$1.61T
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC$28.5M$69.91−$1.2M−$1.7M+0.7%$645.81B
ALPS ADVISORS INC$25.2M$99.13−$1.2M+$1.6M+0.2%$21.23B
Invesco Ltd.$24.0M$91.45+$13.8M+$10.2M-0.2%$652.04B
NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive$21.8M$105.94+$655K−$7.9M-0.2%$755.34B
Bank of New York Mellon Corp$19.2M$85.53−$194K+$333K-0.2%$543.21B
SYSTEMATIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LP$18.6M$70.14−$400K−$290K-0.6%$4.33B
MORGAN STANLEY$17.2M$83.52−$501K+$3.0M-0.3%$1.65T
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC$15.7M$84.67+$2.0M+$3.9M-0.2%$760.93B
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC$14.3M$125.51+$4.9M+$9.1M+0.7%$193.48B
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$13.2M$106.35+$10.1M+$4.5M-0.9%$117.03B
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.

Trading behavior

Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)NEUTRAL
Holders
+0.69%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
+0.79%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.39%
108 buyers · $0.40B in
Sellers (this Q)
+0.39%
86 sellers · $-0.09B out
alpha coverage: 86% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+1.7%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+14.1%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
+1.1%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+2.1%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
+0.9%
Sellers' overall flow ~ flat.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-2.9%
Holder mid (any stock)
-2.5%
Holder rally (any stock)
-2.6%

Top Holders Over Time

5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price

0795K1.6M2.4M3.2M$54$80$107$133$1602021-062022-062023-062024-062025-062026-03
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
Morgan Stanley Institutional Investment Advisors LLC1.0MFIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP530KM Holdings Securities, Inc.462KRENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC336KAMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC90KCHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC179KInvesco Ltd.150KALPS ADVISORS INC158KBank of New York Mellon Corp120KSYSTEMATIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LP116K

Corporate

Insider Trading (last 12mo)

Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$2.17M
3 txns · 2 insiders · 11,807 sh
Recent transactions
DateSideInsiderTitleSharesPriceDollarsOwned $
2026-05-21SELLLAROCHE RICHARD F JRdirector7,500$195.14$1.46M$40.15M
2026-05-19SELLShelly Timothy J.officer: Sr.VP Operations1,853$197.22$365K$255K
2025-12-17SELLShelly Timothy J.officer: Sr.VP Operations2,454$139.42$342K$0

Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)

13.5%retail-2.5pp
26.4%dark-0.7pp
week of 2026-04-13
5%10%15%20%25%30%35%24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-04retail (non-ATS)dark (ATS)
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.

Filing Risk Analysis

Filing Risk Scores

National Healthcare Corp: Related Party Lease Defaults and Non-Operating Gains Mask Core Operational Pressures

Overall Risk
7/10
Fraud
4/10
Dilution
2/10
Insolvency
6/10
Earnings Overstated
5/10
Hidden Liabilities
8/10
Legal
8/10
Audit Warnings
3/10
Hidden Upside
4/10
Contextually Acceptable
3/10