NEXT
NextDecade CorporationEnergy·Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$7.91
$2.1B market cap
Revenue
$0.0M
Free Cash Flow
$-3.6B
Rev Growth
+0.0%
FCF Margin
0.0%
P/FCF
--
EV/FCF
--
Fwd EV/EBITDA
--
Fair Value
--
Upside
--
NextDecade Corporation engages in the development activities related to the liquefaction and sale of liquefied natural gas (LNG); and capture and storage of CO2 emissions. The company focuses on the development activities on the Rio Grande LNG terminal facility located in the Port of Brownsville in southern Texas. It also focuses on a carbon capture and storage project (CCS project) at the terminal, as well as on other CCS projects with third-party industrial source facilities. The company was f
2-Year Price History
$8.46+18.2%
Quarterly Financials & Projections
Quarterly Waterfall ($ M)
| Period | Rev | EBITDA | OpIn | NI | OCF | FCF | CapEx | Cash | Debt | Shares | ROIC | IntCov | EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act | 2026-Q1 | 0.0 | -51.0 | -55.1 | -136.4 | -110.8 | -1,288 | -1,177 | 465.1 | 9,474 | 264.9 | -2.3% | -0.6x | -- |
| Act | 2025-Q4 | 0.0 | -42.8 | -45.8 | -47.3 | -20.7 | -2,292 | -2,272 | 143.8 | 8,657 | 262.2 | -2.1% | -0.6x | -- |
Valuation & Metrics
Market Stats
Price$7.91
Market Cap$2.1B
Enterprise Value$11.1B
P/S Ratio0.0x
P/FCF--
EV/FCF--
FCF Margin (TTM)0.0%
FCF Yield-170.8%
Dividend Yield (TTM)--
Annual Dilution0.0%
CurrencyUSD
TTM Financial Snapshot
Revenue$0.0M
Net Income$-183.7M
Free Cash Flow$-3.6B
Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
EBITDA Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
FCF Margin0.0%
CapEx % of Revenue0.0%
SBC % of Revenue0.0%
ROIC-2.2%
WC Change % Rev0.0%
Interest Coverage-0.6x
Forward Outlook & Risk
Short Interest
Short % of Float--
Short Shares23.6M
Days to Cover7.4
Change (vs Prior)-0.8%
Need at least 2 settlement dates for chart
Employees
Headcount237
Revenue / Employee$0
Gross Profit / Employee$-30,165
Cash Runway
1.6months
CRITICAL
Institutional Ownership
Headline & net flow
NEUTRAL
Net flow · —still filing
No float data — flow unavailable.
Ownership composition
Active
23.6%(-7.0% YoY)
187 filers
hedge / family / endowment
Retail funds
—
Fidelity, Schwab, 401(k)
Passive
14.2%(+1.2% YoY)
10 filers
Vanguard, iShares, SPDR
Market makers
0.2%(-0.6% YoY)
6 filers
Citadel, Susquehanna
Insiders
—
Form 4 — latest per insider
ActiveRetail fundsPassiveMarket makersRetail direct
Top holders
| Fund | $ value | Cost basis | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | α life | Fund AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc.Passive | $176M | $5.10 | +$13.3M | +$20.4M | -0.2% | $5.69T |
| Mubadala Investment Co PJSC | $109M | $4.77 | +$0 | +$0 | -6.8% | $20.49B |
| Man Investment Partners (US) LP | $71.0M | $5.27 | +$0 | +$71.0M | -4.3% | $83.5M |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $45.2M | $7.66 | +$45.2M | +$45.2M | — | $4.04T |
| Catalyst Capital Advisors LLC | $40.0M | $6.51 | +$4.4M | +$4.7M | +1.1% | $5.36B |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLCPassive | $30.8M | $6.39 | +$4.3M | +$6.6M | +2.3% | $1.61T |
| STATE STREET CORPPassive | $27.2M | $6.41 | +$4.8M | +$6.0M | -0.2% | $2.89T |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $19.6M | $7.34 | +$12.8M | +$8.8M | -0.5% | $127.40B |
| NEOS Investment Management LLC | $19.5M | $7.53 | +$18.4M | +$19.5M | -0.3% | $19.77B |
| BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $19.5M | $5.58 | +$2.1M | +$19.0M | -0.4% | $48.01B |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLCPassive | $18.7M | $7.66 | +$18.7M | +$18.7M | — | $1.91T |
| HOTCHKIS & WILEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $14.5M | $5.64 | −$5.6M | −$3.2M | -0.1% | $31.89B |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $14.4M | $5.68 | −$84K | −$6.0M | -0.1% | $1.36T |
| CITIGROUP INC | $14.2M | $6.43 | +$6.2M | +$13.4M | -0.3% | $156.55B |
| Wolf Hill Capital Management, LP | $13.5M | $7.29 | −$14.8M | −$26.6M | -0.7% | $686M |
| MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. | $12.4M | $6.84 | −$1.3M | −$4.9M | +1.7% | $73.71B |
| WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INC | $10.5M | $6.17 | +$356K | +$1.4M | -0.3% | $13.73B |
| Ripple Effect Asset Management LP | $10.3M | $6.59 | +$5.7M | +$10.3M | +7.7% | $144M |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORPPassive | $9.8M | $5.56 | +$1.8M | +$1.7M | -0.2% | $755.34B |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $9.4M | $6.34 | −$3.4M | +$1.7M | -0.2% | $760.93B |
Cost basis is a volume-weighted estimate from accumulation periods within our 13F history; holders who built their position before our window started will show a stale basis. % above the cost basis is the unrealized gain at the current price.
Trading behavior
Smart-money alpha (lifetime, %/qtr)BULLISH
Holders
+3.95%
avg per quarter
Holders (ex-self)
-1.79%
excl. this stock
Buyers (this Q)
+0.30%
133 buyers · $0.31B in
Sellers (this Q)
-1.32%
48 sellers · $0.02B out
alpha coverage: 91% of $ has a lifetime-alpha record
Holder behavior on this stocksource: stock
On big dips (−10%+)
+2.7%
how holders react when this stock falls
On quiet Qs
+12.2%
−10% to +10% baseline
On rallies (+10%+)
-14.4%
how they react when this stock rises
Holders' portfolio flow this Q
+0.1%
inflows — adds are organic
Sellers' portfolio flow this Q
-10.4%
Sellers shed AUM broadly — partly forced.
▸ Compare to holder-profile behavior (across all their stocks)
Holder dip (any stock)
-5.6%
Holder mid (any stock)
-5.9%
Holder rally (any stock)
-7.2%
Biggest decreases this quarter
Wolf Hill Capital Management, LP−$14.8Mα-0.7JANE STREET GROUP, LLCexited−$7.3MYaupon Capital Management LPexited−$6.5MHOTCHKIS & WILEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC−$5.6Mα-0.1GROUP ONE TRADING LLCexited−$3.5MGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC−$3.4Mα-0.2Webs Creek Capital Management LPexited−$2.9MTWINBEECH CAPITAL LPexited−$1.5MPacer Advisors, Inc.exited−$1.4MMIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.−$1.3Mα+1.7
New buyers this quarter
Top-5 holders · 51.9%
BlackRock, Inc.--
Mubadala Investment Co PJSC--
Man Investment Partners (US) LP--
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC--
Catalyst Capital Advisors LLC--
Top Holders Over Time
5-year share-count history (top 10 holders by peak, incl. exited) + price
hover the chart for per-quarter detailprice (right axis)
York Capital Management Global Advisors, LLC—Mubadala Investment Co PJSC14.2MVALINOR MANAGEMENT, L.P.—BARDIN HILL MANAGEMENT PARTNERS LP—Man Investment Partners (US) LP9.3MWolf Hill Capital Management, LP1.8MLASRY MARC—MORGAN STANLEY655KCatalyst Capital Advisors LLC5.2MHOTCHKIS & WILEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC1.9M
Analyst Coverage
Analyst Coverage
Price Targets
Last Quarter (1 analysts)$7.00-1150.0%
Last Year (2 analysts)$7.00-1150.0%
Current Price$7.91
Analyst Ratings
4
5
Buy: 4Hold: 5Consensus: Hold
Corporate
Insider Trading (last 12mo)
Open-market only (Form 4 P-Purchase + S-Sale). Excludes grants, option exercises, tax withholding, gifts.
Officers & directors
Buys ($, 12mo)
$9.45M
6 txns · 5 insiders · 1,325,021 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Major holders (≥10% beneficial owners)
Buys ($, 12mo)
$53.70M
24 txns · 1 insider · 8,883,854 sh
Sells ($, 12mo)
$0
0 txns · 0 insiders · 0 sh
Recent transactions
| Date | Side | Insider | Title | Shares | Price | Dollars | Owned $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | BUY | Beall Pamela K.M. | director | 71,500 | $7.07 | $506K | $506K |
| 2025-12-12 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 800,000 | $5.54 | $4.43M | $146.34M |
| 2025-12-11 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 851,971 | $5.83 | $4.97M | $149.40M |
| 2025-12-10 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 600,000 | $6.05 | $3.63M | $149.90M |
| 2025-12-09 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 293,131 | $6.36 | $1.86M | $153.70M |
| 2025-12-08 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 39,467 | $6.26 | $247K | $149.41M |
| 2025-12-05 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 151,058 | $6.21 | $939K | $148.11M |
| 2025-12-04 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 243,959 | $6.19 | $1.51M | $146.71M |
| 2025-12-03 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 241,946 | $6.04 | $1.46M | $141.52M |
| 2025-12-02 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 310,964 | $5.93 | $1.84M | $137.60M |
| 2025-12-01 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 205,160 | $6.05 | $1.24M | $138.57M |
| 2025-11-28 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 111,084 | $6.12 | $680K | $138.79M |
| 2025-11-26 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 175,142 | $5.95 | $1.04M | $134.38M |
| 2025-11-25 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 285,502 | $5.73 | $1.64M | $128.29M |
| 2025-11-24 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 445,109 | $5.59 | $2.49M | $123.68M |
| 2025-11-21 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 419,477 | $5.73 | $2.40M | $124.09M |
| 2025-11-20 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 347,630 | $6.02 | $2.09M | $127.91M |
| 2025-11-19 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 305,973 | $6.04 | $1.85M | $126.15M |
| 2025-11-18 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 462,576 | $5.92 | $2.74M | $122.01M |
| 2025-11-17 | BUY | Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 295,875 | $5.87 | $1.74M | $118.13M |
Order Flow (FINRA, ~3w lag)
30.3%retail+3.9pp
20.1%dark-2.4pp
week of 2026-04-13
Off-exchange volume from FINRA. Retail = non-ATS (wholesaler PFOF + broker internalization). Dark = ATS (dark-pool crossing networks, institutional). Lit-exchange = remainder.
Filing Risk Analysis
Filing Risk Scores
NextDecade Corporation: A Highly Leveraged Shell Game Protected by VIE Consolidation and PIK Debt
Overall Risk
8/10
Fraud
3/10
Dilution
7/10
Insolvency
8/10
Earnings Overstated
2/10
Hidden Liabilities
6/10
Legal
5/10
Audit Warnings
6/10
Hidden Upside
7/10
Contextually Acceptable
4/10